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Rail Franchises to be Replaced with Fixed Fee Contracts

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dk1

dk1

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Bald Rick said:
Well he couldn’t say “this is looking tricky” or “deal almost done” or anything that could indicate the outcome, as that would affect the share price before the deal is announced.
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First share price has been one of the best FTSE350 performers this week until today.
 
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Silverlinky

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dk1 said:
First share price has been one of the best FTSE350 performers this week until today.
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To be fair the whole travel sector fell today upon fears of a second nationwide lockdown......First didn't fare too badly as it was down just over 2%, Go-Ahead Group was down 4.75%, EasyJet down over 9% and IAG Group (BA) nearly 15%.....Jet2 and Tui both down almost 5% too, as well as Hotel chains and the like.....
 
dk1

dk1

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Silverlinky said:
To be fair the whole travel sector fell today upon fears of a second nationwide lockdown......First didn't fare too badly as it was down just over 2%, Go-Ahead Group was down 4.75%, EasyJet down over 9% and IAG Group (BA) nearly 15%.....Jet2 and Tui both down almost 5% too, as well as Hotel chains and the like.....
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Hospitality companies taking a battering too. First been improving on talks of off loading those godforsaken American buses.
 
47421

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looks like Scotrail & Caledonian Sleeper EMAs have been extended until 10 Jan 2021 only

t.co

Further financial support for rail services in Scotland

Further financial support for rail services in Scotland
t.co t.co
The original six-month EMA was due to expire on Sunday, 20 September 2020, but this has been extended until 10 January 2021. The extension was necessary as ScotRail’s passenger numbers remain 70 per cent down year-on-year due to the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, including the instruction for people to work from home where possible.


Discussions on a longer-term agreement beyond 10 January 2021 are due to begin imminently.
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theironroad

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With another reduction in travel, especially for leisure, looming with any further national lockdown type measures being introduced I can't see that the DfT can do anything else really apart from just extend the EMAs on current terms. There's not about to be a massive increases in fare revenue.

Whether the 'essential travel only' message is brought back is the question, though I'd imagine it's the very last option on the table if at all.
 
LNW-GW Joint

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theironroad said:
Whether the 'essential travel only' message is brought back is the question, though I'd imagine it's the very last option on the table if at all.
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It has already been re-introduced in the new north-west restrictions.
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: New restrictions in North West, Midlands and West Yorkshire

People will not be able to socialise with other households in their homes or gardens.
www.bbc.co.uk
Residents are asked only to use public transport for "essential purposes" in:
Lancashire except Blackpool
Merseyside
Warrington
Halton
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Starmill

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No leaks have been doing the rounds in any of the normal places that I can spot. Tomorrow it is then!
theironroad said:
With another reduction in travel, especially for leisure, looming with any further national lockdown type measures being introduced I can't see that the DfT can do anything else really apart from just extend the EMAs on current terms.
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I imagine there's essentially zero chance of that.
 
HamworthyGoods

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Starmill said:
No leaks have been doing the rounds in any of the normal places that I can spot. Tomorrow it is then!
I imagine there's essentially zero chance of that.
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I would more likely suggest any announcement would be early Monday morning.
 
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Snow1964

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popeter45 said:
yea i suspect this will be announced to Parliament so prob Monday at Earliest
there is a Written Statement on Rail due in the commons

Order Paper for 21 September 2020

commonsbusiness.parliament.uk commonsbusiness.parliament.uk
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I think if a (significant) announcement affecting a listed public company is being made, they normally happen at 7am as a formal stock exchange announcement. So the info doesn’t leak out during stock exchange opening hours causing insider trading.

Of course no change won’t justify this, but major cancellations of franchises, or forfeiting the bond deposits would.

I suspect 7am explains the release of a written ministerial statement (commons is not open at that time for announcemen)
 
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theironroad

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Snow1964 said:
I think if a (significant) announcement affecting a listed public company is being made, they normally happen at 7am as a formal stock exchange announcement. So the info doesn’t leak out during stock exchange opening hours causing insider trading.

Of course no change won’t justify this, but major can cancellations of franchises, or forfeiting the bond deposits would.
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I'm not sure but maybe a written statement to Parliament can be released at the same time as the news is sent to the stock exchange.
 
dk1

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theironroad said:
I'm not sure but maybe a written statement to Parliament can be released at the same time as the news is sent to the stock exchange.
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I'm isolating for a few more days thanks to this annoying virus but will set my alarm for 06:45 Monday.
 
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Even if they kick the can down the road there will have to be a Commons statement as it is a matter for a Ministerial statement. That will take place after the (usually) 7.00 a.m. Stock Exchange announcement as the Commons statement obviously can’t be done at that time - it has to be done during the hours that the Commons sits.

If they have taken any back this weekend or they haven’t reached an agreement over a particular TOC, I would expect that news to start to leak out later tonight.
 
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Clarence Yard said:
Even if they kick the can down the road there will have to be a Commons statement as it is a matter for a Ministerial statement. That will take place after the (usually) 7.00 a.m. Stock Exchange announcement as the Commons statement obviously can’t be done at that time - it has to be done during the hours that the Commons sits.

If they have taken any back this weekend or they haven’t reached an agreement over a particular TOC, I would expect that news to start to leak out later tonight.
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Yes, I wouldn't be shocked to see something in one or two of the Sunday papers if that is the case.
 
LNW-GW Joint

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theironroad said:
I'm not sure but maybe a written statement to Parliament can be released at the same time as the news is sent to the stock exchange.
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There's a tendency to only release info to the Stock Exchange about specific companies (eg contract win or termination).
The small print, and the impact on the wider economy, is generally left until there is a ministerial announcement (written or in person).
Even then, the detail might only emerge later.
Sometimes the press get briefed (under embargo), sometimes not.
With all the Covid issues it probably won't be the biggest story of the day.
 
Starmill

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theironroad said:
What do you think will happen ?
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I do not know what will happen tomorrow or on Monday, but my prediction for what will happen in the coming several years was posted earlier:
Starmill said:
Delays to enhancements in infrastructure, fewer services for a period of up to five years, simpler timetables, more rolling stock being withdrawn and spending time off lease, and significant pressure to reduce current spending in all other areas. There may also be some desperation to increase yeild or protect revenue, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that numbers remain low enough that doing those is uneconomical.
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Contracts are likely to be written in a manner which is conducive to those aims. However, the timing remains uncertain.
 
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KashmireHawker said:
Wonder if tommorow's papers (the front pages out tonight) will reveal anything? Whatever the outcome is, they've kept it most tight lipped.
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I rather suspect the front pages will be full of money laundering and Covid.

This story is rather less important.
 
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Technically they don't need to do anything as once the EMAs end the franchises return to previous arrangements albeit this isn't sustainable for very long so is highly unlikely
 
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