Rail Industry Recovery Group

[Bald Rick]

Judging by the last couple of weeks the passenger numbers are returning to near pre covid levels!

Nowhere near! And revenue is, as always through the pandemic, somewhat further behind.

 

[scouseyb123]

Nowhere near! And revenue is, as always through the pandemic, somewhat further behind.

rubbish

 

[steve_wills]

Nowhere near! And revenue is, as always through the pandemic, somewhat further behind.

I disagree. Pass very busy. No seats the other day but thats covid rules. E.g cant sit next to another human.

But got a free upgrade to 1st class. #railwayfamily

 

[IanXC]

The DfT has been compiling transport usage figures throughout the pandemic:

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

The latest release shows the following usage, compared to 'an equivalent day or week', the latest days available show for National Rail show:

22/05/2021 47%
23/05/2021 48%
24/05/2021 50%
25/05/2021 47%
26/05/2021 46%
27/05/2021 46%
28/05/2021 45%
29/05/2021 45%
30/05/2021 46%
31/05/2021 49%

They don't appear to give any breakdown lower than GB National Rail - it would be very interesting even to see the breakdown between InterCity, former Network South East and former Regional Railways.

 

[scouseyb123]

Then I’d say the DfT need to go and have a look at the methodology of how they gather their data. All they should do is get out from behind their computer screens in Whitehall and go visit their nearest train station.

 

[Bald Rick]

rubbish

I disagree. Pass very busy. No seats the other day but thats covid rules. E.g cant sit next to another human.

You can rubbish / disagree as much you like, but I see the national numbers every day. And it’s not pretty.

Of course some trains / lines are busy. But many are not, especially the ones that bring in the cash. No longer are there 16 Thameslink trains per morning peak hour on the MML depositing 1,000-1,800 people into Central London, mostly with season tickets at an average of £4K pa. There’s 12 dropping off about 300 people each. As they say in the US “do the math”. Similar for outer suburban commuting on the SWML, Brighton Line, GEML and many other commuter routes.

Then I’d say the DfT need to go and have a look at the methodology of how they gather their data. All they should do is get out from behind their computer screens in Whitehall and go visit their nearest train station.

From ticket sales, updated every day.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

You can rubbish / disagree as much you like, but I see the national numbers every day. And it’s not pretty.

Of course some trains / lines are busy. But many are not, especially the ones that bring in the cash. No longer are there 16 Thameslink trains per morning peak hour on the MML depositing 1,000-1,800 people into Central London, mostly with season tickets at an average of £4K pa. There’s 12 dropping off about 300 people each. As they say in the US “do the math”. Similar for outer suburban commuting on the SWML, Brighton Line, GEML and many other commuter routes.



From ticket sales, updated every day.

Obviously this is not going off figures, but in my experience the numbers I see on trains I travel on probably pretty accurately represent the figures the dft has. The recovery is very patchy with some days trains being very quiet, but other days trains very busy. I think the biggest issue is still the morning peak, its nowhere near what it was pre covid and will be one of the biggest reasons why numbers are still down.

Still the numbers are showing we are moving in the right direction, and trains on average in my experience are getting busier, so fingers crossed the progress continues. The evenings in particular seem to be getting busier which is a good sign.

 

[steve_wills]

You can rubbish / disagree as much you like, but I see the national numbers every day. And it’s not pretty.

Of course some trains / lines are busy. But many are not, especially the ones that bring in the cash. No longer are there 16 Thameslink trains per morning peak hour on the MML depositing 1,000-1,800 people into Central London, mostly with season tickets at an average of £4K pa. There’s 12 dropping off about 300 people each. As they say in the US “do the math”. Similar for outer suburban commuting on the SWML, Brighton Line, GEML and many other commuter routes.



From ticket sales, updated every day.

Who cares about sales.

Ive got a free box. That's not in your figures. Lol

 

[yorksrob]

The DfT has been compiling transport usage figures throughout the pandemic:

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

The latest release shows the following usage, compared to 'an equivalent day or week', the latest days available show for National Rail show:

22/05/2021 47%
23/05/2021 48%
24/05/2021 50%
25/05/2021 47%
26/05/2021 46%
27/05/2021 46%
28/05/2021 45%
29/05/2021 45%
30/05/2021 46%
31/05/2021 49%

They don't appear to give any breakdown lower than GB National Rail - it would be very interesting even to see the breakdown between InterCity, former Network South East and former Regional Railways.

I agree regarding a breakdown of sectors.

Good news to have hit 50%.

As a country we will have to get used to the railway operating more as a social need, than the 'commercial' railway we've been used to since the days of the Bob Reid's.

 

[Ianno87]

I agree regarding a breakdown of sectors.

Good news to have hit 50%.

As a country we will have to get used to the railway operating more as a social need, than the 'commercial' railway we've been used to since the days of the Bob Reid's.

All well and good and lovely. But who is footing the bill for that in perpetuity?

You can rubbish / disagree as much you like, but I see the national numbers every day. And it’s not pretty.

Of course some trains / lines are busy. But many are not, especially the ones that bring in the cash. No longer are there 16 Thameslink trains per morning peak hour on the MML depositing 1,000-1,800 people into Central London, mostly with season tickets at an average of £4K pa. There’s 12 dropping off about 300 people each. As they say in the US “do the math”. Similar for outer suburban commuting on the SWML, Brighton Line, GEML and many other commuter routes.



From ticket sales, updated every day.

My example would be (pre-Covid) seeing peak Kiing's Cross fast trains leaving Cambridge with all seats taken and a few standing passengers.

Currently it's 50% of seats tops.occuoied.

Things are slowly heading in the right direction, but there is a big gap in demand from pre-Covid at certain times of day (rather than the observations of this forum predominantly at off-peak/leisure times)

 

[yorksrob]

All well and good and lovely. But who is footing the bill for that in perpetuity?



My example would be (pre-Covid) seeing peak Kiing's Cross fast trains leaving Cambridge with all seats taken and a few standing passengers.

Currently it's 50% of seats tops.occuoied.

Things are slowly heading in the right direction, but there is a big gap in demand from pre-Covid at certain times of day (rather than the observations of this forum predominantly at off-peak/leisure times)

The same people who foot the bill in every other western country with a decent rail network.

 

[scouseyb123]

Hopefully alot of the appratchiks and do- gooders at the DfT will get the chop as well. That’s where I’d start with wielding the axe.

 

[Ianno87]

Hopefully alot of the appratchiks and do- gooders at the DfT will get the chop as well. That’s where I’d start with wielding the axe.

Do you actually understand who they are and what they do?

 

[scouseyb123]

Do you actually understand who they are and what they do?

do you? Are you one of them?

 

[Ianno87]

do you? Are you one of them?

Yes (well, a decent chunk of them). And no.

 

[Ceat0908]

https://cdn.fbsbx.com/v/t59.2708-21/195336596_1441308859567973_1524492540401357950_n.pdf/RIRG-Enabling-Framework-290421-Final.pdf?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=0cab14&_nc_ohc=_EUsM1utUZ4AX_y_8az&_nc_ht=cdn.fbsbx.com&oh=bf49ec7402c4d9f0cd7d274713d15070&oe=60BB1722&dl=1&fbclid=IwAR0BK37UeVSP_z8RPEOONB4__STd3m1XQ3H9AoQQQWslco3TnxjTEJClWcg

For any rail staff amongst us, what’s everyone’s thoughts/feelings on this? Very worrying times ahead.

Anyone got a link that works for this?

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder to please debate constructively and politely; some posts have had to be removed.

Also a reminder that if you see any post that causes concern, please report it to us (using the report link) and also be sure not to reply to any such post, thanks

Anyone got a link that works for this?

@EC123 can you edit your post to include a quote, as per forum rules please? Thanks!

 

[Gooner18]

I personally think it’s only a matter of years before the whole underground is driverless. As far as I am aware some of the lines are already good to go and the new pic line trains are set up ready to be driverless as and when. Of course happy to be corrected

 

[steve_wills]

I personally think it’s only a matter of years before the whole UG is driverless. As far as I am aware some of the lines are already good to go and the new pic line trains are set up ready to be driverless as and when. Of course happy to be corrected

Rubbish. I correct you. They claimed driverless in the 90s

 

[Gooner18]

Rubbish. I correct you. They claimed driverless in the 90s

As I understood it the Victoria and central lines are more or less ready for driverless ?

 

[whoosh]

I personally think it’s only a matter of years before the whole UG is driverless. As far as I am aware some of the lines are already good to go and the new pic line trains are set up ready to be driverless as and when. Of course happy to be corrected

Have a read of this:

The Political Myth of the Driverless Tube Train - London Reconnections

The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.

www.londonreconnections.com

I think it will happen one day, but it's a lot more difficult than is often thought.

The Glasgow subway is an absolute piece of cake in comparison to even one London Underground line, with exception of perhaps the Waterloo & City, which stands the best chance in the next 20 years I would say.

As I understood it the Victoria and central lines are more or less ready for driverless ?

Taking the Victoria Line as an example. It's a fairly straightforward line, but you'd need Platform Edge Doors (PEDs) for each platform (like the Jubilee Line Extension has, and like Crossrail Elizabeth Line is having in the centre of London) to run fully automated. The problem you then run into is that the 1960s stations and tunnels were not designed for PEDs. You'd have ventilation issues (air on platforms getting too hot) as the fresh air from the surface wouldn't be pulled from station entrances to the ventilation shafts in the tunnels (normally a short distance from each station) by the movement of trains and ventilation shafts fans, if they are impeded by PEDs. Jubilee Line Extension and Crossrail have their ventilation systems designed around that.
So it isn't even the systems on the train or the signalling (another matter to think about) that are the only things to get around.

It would be a massive (read 'expensive') undertaking to automate old lines.

 

[John R]

Then I’d say the DfT need to go and have a look at the methodology of how they gather their data. All they should do is get out from behind their computer screens in Whitehall and go visit their nearest train station.

I suspect their methodology is more robust than the eyes of one person who, even if they can judge accurately levels of loadings on the services they are on, can't do it 18 hours a day across the country.

Road traffic is now topping pre-COVID levels on some days, showing the disparity in recovery between the methods of transport, and potentially the migration of some prior rail users to road.

 

[Geeves]

Have a read of this:

The Political Myth of the Driverless Tube Train - London Reconnections

The leading source for independent news and analysis about transport in London and beyond. Award-winning coverage of transport infrastructure and politics alongside stories about the history of the Capital's transport networks.

www.londonreconnections.com

I think it will happen one day, but it's a lot more difficult than is often thought.

The Glasgow subway is an absolute piece of cake in comparison to even one London Underground line, with exception of perhaps the Waterloo & City, which stands the best chance in the next 20 years I would say.



Taking the Victoria Line as an example. It's a fairly straightforward line, but you'd need Platform Edge Doors (PEDs) for each platform (like the Jubilee Line Extension has, and like Crossrail Elizabeth Line is having in the centre of London) to run fully automated. The problem you then run into is that the 1960s stations and tunnels were not designed for PEDs. You'd have ventilation issues (air on platforms getting too hot) as the fresh air from the surface wouldn't be pulled from station entrances to the ventilation shafts in the tunnels (normally a short distance from each station) by the movement of trains and ventilation shafts fans, if they are impeded by PEDs. Jubilee Line Extension and Crossrail have their ventilation systems designed around that.
So it isn't even the systems on the train or the signalling (another matter to think about) that are the only things to get around.

It would be a massive (read 'expensive') undertaking to automate old lines.

In Japan the platform edge "doors" are in some places made from ropes. Anyone that says automation is years away is living in cuckoo land especially (on the mainline at least) where drivers are pushing 70 grand a pop.

 

[Need2]

In Japan the platform edge "doors" are in some places made from ropes. Anyone that says automation is years away is living in cuckoo land especially (on the mainline at least) where drivers are pushing 70 grand a pop.

It’s probably me but I don’t understand your post?

 

[Tube driver]

As I understood it the Victoria and central lines are more or less ready for driverless ?

Until it rains on the Central Line…

Fact is, the DfTs handling of TfLs finances and the financial pressures it has now imposed has delayed the introduction of driverless trains, not speeded it up as reported in the press. TfLs own feasibility study claims it needs something like £7bn on top of what already is being spent to bring it in. Do you think that money is coming in anytime soon?

And remember, driverless does not mean staffless. That £7bn merely puts the driver in the carriage (GoA2 to GoA3) and the same pressures of rostering, staffing, disputes, etc will remain. It’s a nonstarter outside of the offices of the Evening Standard and the DfT.

 

[alf]

The complicated DLR Network operates automatically & is driverless & 95% of it is outdoors.
The on board staff person does not take over driving when it rains.
So what is this rain problem?

 

[choochoochoo]

In Japan the platform edge "doors" are in some places made from ropes. Anyone that says automation is years away is living in cuckoo land especially (on the mainline at least) where drivers are pushing 70 grand a pop.

It will take ages. No cuckoo land.

A whole new signalling system.

Other infrastructure adjustments (Level Crossings/Stations etc)

Retro-fitting existing stock or introducing new stock.

I'd say earliest would be 2030s and that's being optimistic.

And judging by the delay to other (smaller) railway projects (Crossrail/Thameslink 2000) I'd not be that optimistic.

 

[43066]

Anyone that says automation is years away is living in cuckoo land especially (on the mainline at least) where drivers are pushing 70 grand a pop.

I’d challenge that by asking specifically which aspect of the driving role you think will be automated, across the network within the next ten years?! In 2031 there will be (a little bit) more ERTMS around than there is now.

Manual signal boxes and £70k+ train drivers might wind up certain elements of the media (and some posters on here), but they’re a lot cheaper than the cost of upgrading the infrastructure.

Automation is a spectre which will threaten many jobs over the next few decades, snd it will come the railway eventually. But over a 30-40 hour year timescale I’m honestly not sure how much of a threat it will be to train drivers (other grades sadly more so, especially ticket offices).

Ironically Covid and HS2 will push the investment case back still further!

 

[whoosh]

In Japan the platform edge "doors" are in some places made from ropes. Anyone that says automation is years away is living in cuckoo land especially (on the mainline at least) where drivers are pushing 70 grand a pop.

Yes, I've seen those - all very clever until some kid gets their head caught in one, or a drunken adult for that matter.

And remember, driverless does not mean staffless. That £7bn merely puts the driver in the carriage (GoA2 to GoA3) and the same pressures of rostering, staffing, disputes, etc will remain. It’s a nonstarter outside of the offices of the Evening Standard and the DfT.

Indeed, one only has to look at Hammersmith Control Centre's troubles becoming more and more apparent, and the resulting chaotic Metropolitan Line service, to see that Train Operators aren't the only rôle that can develop a staff shortage, go on strike, or not be recruited or trained in a timely manner.

 

[L401CJF]

I would imagine the actual figures for passenger numbers is somewhat higher as a lot of journeys arnt logged on the computers.

A relative has been using the TfW Bidston to Wrexham line a fair bit lately and hasn't bought any tickets due to no ticket machines at the stations and the conductor not passing through the train. (Not a chance in hell of her being able to use an app and she's not tech savvy at all!)

Then you factor in networks like Merseyrail where a large number of passengers are traveling with local concession passes , Merseytravel prepaid season tickets and so on, with only 8 (?) Stations on the network having barriers none of these journeys would be counted either.

I've been using the train throughout the pandemic and have had to stand for my journey the past few times instead of having an empty 6 car to myself, journeys are definitely up!

I work on the buses, of course every journey is logged on the ticket machine so figures are somewhat more accurate (unless drivers can't be bothered to enter passes manually) and our official figure is currently around 70% of 2019 levels.