Railway Industrial Disputes Mk2

[Nicholas Lewis]

I feel sorry for you if you think that the conflict in Ukraine is a "convenient cover" and has no effect on many different countries with energy and food supplies being disrupted. The latest news from Sri Lanka should be a good example of the area of the world that has been so affected.

The point is they [Bank of England / Office of Budget Responsibility] use Ukraine to cover there own forecast failings. All commodity prices especially gas prices have been elevated with the latter already at 3-4 times above long term average since last September. Also most of the spike ups since the invasion have rapidly been undone. ie inflationary tendencies were already baked in pre invasion but not reflected in inflation forecasts but granted they have been exacerbated since.

Sri Lanka problems was from a corrupt govt that massively messed up its agricultural sector and then when it needed to go and replace deficiencies in its own food production it found prices had gone through the roof and they didn't have the foreign exchange to purchase it. So in part self inflicted although as usual not by the people that are in the main impacted.

I actually fear for much of Africa which is very reliant on subsidised UN food imports which have largely been sourced from Ukraine and Russia as they used to run a hefty surplus.

 

[dk1]

yep, GA drivers get those on the last two trains to Southend on a Friday night.

Yuk!!!

 

[baz962]

Oh my God. Can you just imagine if the could what with some that we cart around

Would bigger ones be worth more, or more attractive ones.

 

[Bald Rick]

Would bigger ones be worth more, or more attractive ones.

Trains or passengers? But we digress.

 

[Wolfie]

Easy solution to this - remove TOCs from the definition of “public sector” - no real reason for them still to be there now that ticket revenues are back to decent levels. The concerns of the public sector as a whole are not aligned with those of the railway unions.

As for 11% - you do get this is a negotiation, don’t you? The unions won’t be expecting that - deals have been struck around the 5% mark at Scotrail and 8% at Crossrail. I expect something like that (likely to the lower end) is where most TOCs will end up. That’s roughly in accordance with current total wage growth this year so far in the wider economy, which is around 8% according to the ONS. So hardly unreasonable to expect on the railway - and of course this is less than inflation so still a pay cut in real terms!



What does any of this have to do with ASLEF and TSSA? Trade unions aren’t concerned with stewardship of the wider economy - it’s not for them to decide how any particular expenditure is paid for.

Surely you understand that?



Another lesson in half baked amateur economics! Just like in the other thread, you appear to be regurgitating the bad faith government line: “we can’t give railway workers a pay rise because of inflation”, while in the meantime that same government has massively increased the state pension, is increasing the NMW and Tory leadership hopefuls are queuing up to offer billions worth of tax cuts. Any suggestions that inflationary pressure is of any concern to this government is laughable.



Indeed!

As an ASLEF member. I pay dues for two reasons: 1 an insurance policy 2 for the union to protect Ts and Cs and prevent by standard of living from being eroded, by fighting if necessary. It really is as narrow as that. Comparisons to other industries, nurses being paid £25k, people earning a pittance in retail etc. are neither here nor there. They have their own unions to fight their corner.

As a taxpayer l would oppose any moves to try and allow the railway industry to offer big payrises while being even more massively subsidised. Time for harsh reality to bite.

There are certain candidates for the Tory leadership who will, l fear, actively consider fire and hire.

 

[Need2]

you might want to check next years independent inflation forecasts. 3% since you’re asking. In that context a 2+2% deal seems quite attractive

I am probably wrong but didn’t the BoE predict an 11.5% inflation rate next year?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

If HMG allows one publicly funded industry to basically blackmail themselves a bigger rise the same will happen across the piece. More likely HMG will dig in and dig in hard.


Welcome to the public sector. HMT haven't started on the railway yet.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone have so much glee about the thought of the Treasury cutting the railways apart. I can't understand it.

 

[dk1]

I am probably wrong but didn’t the BoE predict an 11.5% inflation rate next year?

Oh that would be a great multi-year pay deal. Worded as something like 2.7% or RPI whichever is the greater

 

[Leicester_Loya]

Pay offer rejected (thankfully).

The pay offer in itself wasn't that bad, but the conditions of it were ridiculous, working 39 weekends a year? My missus moans she doesn't see me enough at the weekend now as it is.

It's closer to what a lot want, but still a fair old way to go.

Expect more strike dates to be announced in the next 48 hours.

 

[Wolfie]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone have so much glee about the thought of the Treasury cutting the railways apart. I can't understand it.

I have no glee about that whatsoever. I do though think that staff who have become accustomed to inflation busting payrises expecting to circumvent restrictions in the current circumstances will have a bloody nasty shock. I know people working in HMT.

 

[Goldfish62]

I am probably wrong but didn’t the BoE predict an 11.5% inflation rate next year?

They've forecast around 11.5% CPI for January then declining through the year.

 

[Bald Rick]

I am probably wrong but didn’t the BoE predict an 11.5% inflation rate next year?

yes - you’re wrong. They predict it will be rise to 10% this year, before falling rapidly next.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I have no glee about that whatsoever. I do though think that staff who have become accustomed to inflation busting payrises expecting to circumvent restrictions in the current circumstances will have a bloody nasty shock. I know people working in HMT.

But I don't think that may people are expecting that.

Its pretty clear there is progress being made in the current negotiations regarding pay, and to be honest, I'd expect the dispute will end and something will be finalised in the not too distant future. The current offer I thought was quite good to be honest.

 

[Need2]

They've forecast around 11.5% CPI for January then declining through the year.

Still more than 3%.
Inflation would have to unrealistically fall ridiculously fast to average 3% for the year.

 

[Goldfish62]

Surely it is up to the union concerned to ensure that all is done correctly. They are acting on behalf of all their members.

In this case they obviously haven't ensured it was done correctly then!

With the new rail strike due to take place on 27th July will TFL and Avanti West Coast still be running as I don't see those two TOCs mentioned in any reports.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-07-11...ail-companies-vote-to-strike-amid-pay-dispute

If for TfL you mean MTR Crossrail that's simply because there's no dispute there.

 

[Kipperthecat]

Put the offer to the vote and it will probably be accepted.

The clear days to target are Saturday.

Who is in charge of strategy ?

 

[Bald Rick]

Inflation would have to unrealistically fall ridiculously fast to average 3% for the year.

perhnaps you don’t understand how price indices work. Or perhaps you do.

If inflation is 3% at the end of next year, then average inflation for the year is 3%, regardless of what it has been doing in between.

What really matters is the difference in price indices over a given period of time - and we (like most nations) use a year as that period of time. This is one reason it is possible, even probable, that inflation will turn negative at some point in the next 12-28 months.

 

[Need2]

yes - you’re wrong. They predict it will be rise to 10% this year, before falling rapidly next.

Not according to the BoE website I’m not!

When will we get back to low inflation?

Inflation could fall to our 2% target in the next few months, before rising slightly again. We will keep interest rates high for long enough, so inflation settles at 2%.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

11% and starts to slow next year.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not according to the BoE website I’m not!

When will we get back to low inflation?

Inflation could fall to our 2% target in the next few months, before rising slightly again. We will keep interest rates high for long enough, so inflation settles at 2%.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

11% and starts to slow next year.

ah, I ready the May report of the MPC, evidently updated for June! Apologies.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Put the offer to the vote and it will probably be accepted.

The RMT official on the evening news tonight confirmed that the offer had not been put to the membership.

 

[Goldfish62]

perhnaps you don’t understand how price indices work. Or perhaps you do.

If inflation is 3% at the end of next year, then average inflation for the year is 3%, regardless of what it has been doing in between.

What really matters is the difference in price indices over a given period of time - and we (like most nations) use a year as that period of time. This is one reason it is possible, even probable, that inflation will turn negative at some point in the next 12-28 months.

I also tried to explain this earlier, but seemingly to no avail!

 

[Need2]

If inflation is 3% at the end of next year, then average inflation for the year is 3%, regardless of what it has been doing in between.

I obviously don’t understand then!
How the hell is that an average?

 

[Goldfish62]

I obviously don’t understand then!
How the hell is that an average?

Because the quoted inflation rate at any given time is the average of the previous 12 months.

 

[Need2]

Because the quoted inflation rate at any given time is the average of the previous 12 months.

Thank you

 

[JonathanH]

The RMT official on the evening news tonight confirmed that the offer had not been put to the membership.

It doesn't really need to be if the executive, as elected officials, are confident that it will be rejected. That is the point of representation. The gameplay is to have another strike to make feelings known that the offer isn't sufficient.

 

[43066]

As a taxpayer l would oppose any moves to try and allow the railway industry to offer big payrises while being even more massively subsidised. Time for harsh reality to bite.

There are certain candidates for the Tory leadership who will, l fear, actively consider fire and hire.

I’ve never seen “hope” spelt “f e a r”.

 

[AndyHA]

No doubt National Express Coaches , have already thought about extra services , and are beginning to rub their hands with glee , at the threat of another Rail Strike .

And when will Rail Union leaders stop prattelling on about , our members worked through the pandemic !
so did Doctors , Nurses , Firemen , Police , Teachers , workers in care homes etc etc !!

 

[JonathanH]

No doubt National Express Coaches , have already thought about extra services , and are beginning to rub their hands with glee , at the threat of another Rail Strike

Almost certainly will run their normal timetable. The pricing algorithms and more bookings from customers will push up prices.

 

[High Dyke]

There is absolutely no suggestion of cutting a third of front line staff.

 

[jayah]

@DanBlanchflowe

The train drivers should effectively take a 10% pay cut to allow other poorer paid workers providing a public service to catch up. A fairer deal for all in public sector.

Just train drivers or anyone that you consider who earns too much?

What a ridiculous statement!

The train drivers (and other staff required to run the service) should be forced to work on Sundays as part of their contract and a Saturday level of service should be offered on routes where demand requires it.

There should be an increase in the 35hr contracted week to cover this and no additional pay rise to compensate, as most other jobs already involve 37/39/40hr plus weeks excluding unpaid breaks.

Anyone who doesn't want to work under a contract mandating Sunday shifts can find gainful employment elsewhere as there seems to be little shortage of applicants for jobs driving trains.