Railways lurching out of control?

[bramling]

And how is it funded, without the taxpayer picking up the bill, which could be viewed as unfair on those that don’t use the railway as well as financially irresponsible?

That’s a bit like saying as I haven’t used the health service this year I don’t think NHS staff should be paid. Ultimately the state has and has always had a responsibility to fund public-sector pay.

Really the government should be discharging that responsibility before subsidising people’s personal private energy bills, especially when I for one never asked for government assistance on that.

 

[Gorlash1886]

A long time ago I worked in retail banking and everyone was guaranteed a payrise, it was performance based but even the lowest performers still got an increase. To tell everyone in the modern railway especially in roles that don't have much influence to justify the argument is in my opinion patently wrong.

 

[JonathanH]

A long time ago I worked in retail banking and everyone was guaranteed a payrise, it was performance based but even the lowest performers still got an increase.

Things have changed since about 2008. It became very straightforward for companies to tell their staff there was no money for inflationary increases.

As a country we are living well beyond our means and something has to give. The decisions around pay are easier to restrain than those about pensions but at some point it will extend to both.

 

[Iskra]

That’s a bit like saying as I haven’t used the health service this year I don’t think NHS staff should be paid. Ultimately the state has and has always had a responsibility to fund public-sector pay.

Really the government should be discharging that responsibility before subsidising people’s personal private energy bills, especially when I for one never asked for government assistance on that.

It’s nothing of the sort. I never said the railway shouldn’t be funded, I was talking about how a payrise would be funded in an industry that isn’t making the money it used to. I have no problem at all with the idea of it needing subsidy to exist, I’m just not sure a Cost of Living Crisis is a great time to be asking people for more subsidy for an industry that isn’t adding the value it used to, and is performing woefully at times.

I’m not disagreeing but that’s a whole separate debate, caused by something well out of the control of our government.

A long time ago I worked in retail banking and everyone was guaranteed a payrise, it was performance based but even the lowest performers still got an increase. To tell everyone in the modern railway especially in roles that don't have much influence to justify the argument is in my opinion patently wrong.

And how was the business performing at that time?

You aren’t comparing apples with apples

 

[HSTEd]

You use the immediate and urgent need to do something about the climate crisis to pour money into public transport at every level in order to reduce transport sector carbon emissions as rapidly as possible. That is the environmentally, socially and financially responsible thing to do. Because the costs of not doing so are so much greater, and increase the longer we wait.

I am absolutely baffled that climate, and the role the railways can play in reducing climate impacts barely gets mentioned in these kind of discussions.

As a decarbonisation researcher, if I wanted to rapidly decarbonise transport, I would not blow my money propping up the current mainline railway.

It is simply not fit for that purpose. I'd probably be buying urban gondolas and automated metro conversions to be honest.

 

[bramling]

Things have changed since about 2008. It became very straightforward for companies to tell their staff there was no money for inflationary increases.

As a country we are living well beyond our means and something has to give. The decisions around pay are easier to restrain than those about pensions but at some point it will extend to both.

There will also need to be an honest discourse about sustaining subsidising the current situation where people on low wages pay little or no tax, but will in many cases be net recipients of in-work benefits and other forms of welfare (eg NHS services). The only real way to look at that would be a fairly clinical sift through looking at how many such people are employed in roles which add value or are essential functions.

The simple reality seems to be that we couldn’t afford the Covid response. The government should have been honest at the time instead of kicking the can down the road. Inflation was predicted on here at the time, indeed it’s strange people on here could foresee it but the Bank of England apparently couldn’t, or at least heavily underestimated.

 

[Watershed]

2tph delivered that on the Chase, not wires, and it needed a line speed improvement. Some decent DMUs would likely have delivered the same.

Which just goes to show how much difference 2tph can make to ridership. Yet we still see many routes all over the country - even along major flows - languishing on 1tph, with no prospect of improvement.

How the DfT can expect revenue to recover when they aren't restoring the frequencies? Many routes simply don't stand a chance as things stand.

pedantically, that is patently untrue. services were reduced in March 2920 ( March 23rd to be precise), but increased in May, July, September and a December of that year. Reduced again in January 21 (but nowhere near as much), and increased again in March, May, September and December.

That may be the broad picture but in general, most routes have at best the same frequency as pre-Covid. And many have a much worse frequency, with more cuts yet to come in May. Overall I'd call that a substantial cut.

 

[Bikeman78]

Just an observation - I travelled on the peak am and pm today on Thameslink to Farringdon and on the Elizabeth line to and from Paddington. Both very , very busy with a mix of commuters and airport etc travellers.

The local trains in urban West Wales up the Valleys (off peak) were deserted - 2 trains had no fare paying passengers , and were in effect empty stock. 4 of the others had less than 20 passengers on a 3 car service ........

The main line service from Paddington to South Wales managed with no problem as a 5 car vice 9 or 10.

I hate to say it , but from today's experiences - the railway is carrying a lot of fresh air , outside the 2 (dare I say it) - London and South East service rail groups.

Out of curiosity, which train was five vice 10? The 12:23 SWA-PAD was five car, never unpleasantly full thought nearly all seats taken from Reading.

Were trains in West Wales ever very busy? North Wales and Cardiff to Manchester are very well loaded these days.

 

[Iskra]

Which just goes to show how much difference 2tph can make to ridership. Yet we still see many routes all over the country - even along major flows - languishing on 1tph, with no prospect of improvement.

How the DfT can expect revenue to recover when they aren't restoring the frequencies? Many routes simply don't stand a chance as things stand.


That may be the broad picture but in general, most routes have at best the same frequency as pre-Covid. And many have a much worse frequency, with more cuts yet to come in May. Overall I'd call that a substantial cut.

Come on, it’s not realistic to talk about service frequencies increasing when we can’t resource the ones we already have!

 

[North-Valiant]

Out of curiosity, which train was five vice 10? The 12:23 SWA-PAD was five car, never unpleasantly full thought nearly all seats taken from Reading.

We're trains in West Wales ever very busy? North Wales and Cardiff to Manchester are very well loaded these days.

Every TFW train I've seen at Manchester has been packed to the rafters, but then so has every other train I've seen there

 

[Bald Rick]

Back to standing on peak hour services northbound , departing from St Albans towards Luton and Bedford certainly. (on the fast trains certainly)

Guv, don’t forget that the peak fast service is half the pre Covid frequency (with two exceptions). Having the peak full and standing - as it has been since the spring - means we have about 50% of the commuters back on that service group.

You're known for your long predictions, but this is going some

well, it feels like this dispute has been going on for a long time. I’ve aged. A lot.
(Corrected, thank you!)

This is an important point - rail wages have risen below inflation for many years before the pandemic, which is a real terms wage cut.

It’s not just the rail sector. It’s almost everywhere. On average, all wages have. In the past 10 years, RPI has been +44% cumulative, average wages +33%. Although to be fair, that 11% gap only started opening in the last 6 years or so. I wonder what event happened in mid 2016 that might have triggered that?

 

[North-Valiant]

Come on, it’s not realistic to talk about service frequencies increasing when we can’t resource the ones we already have!

How can you blame staff for ridership decreasing and then admit that we don't have the resources to bring train numbers back up to where they were pre covid which is what you are comparing ridership against

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Really the government should be discharging that responsibility before subsidising people’s personal private energy bills, especially when I for one never asked for government assistance on that.

Totally agree and all they re doing by subsidising it is support energy demand which keeps prices high. Yes we've got used to central heating and just leaving everything turned on but the world has changed and people need to adapt. So it would have been far better to have given public sector a half decent payrise and then let them decide what they do with the money.

 

[Gorlash1886]

@Iskra I was there when Northern Rock collapsed and we went through the banking crisis and I can promise you staff still got a payrise.

 

[43066]

Not being entirely commercial does not mean it doesn’t have to justify its performance and funding financially however, and is somehow sacred when it isn’t being used as much.

Justify it to whom? And what do you mean by “performance”? The NHS has performed diabolically according to pretty much all metrics over the last couple of years, so would you suggest its front line staff should suffer a pay freeze?

I’ve not said anything about pensioners, I’m asking you to justify a payrise based solely on the railways own performance and at this point I am yet to see anything credible.

My arguments for rail staff would be:

- it isn’t a pay rise, it’s a reduction in the real terms loss in wages I’ve already suffered after a pay freeze for several years;
- we were so called “key workers” who had to keep working at a time when much of the population was being paid (by government borrowing) to sit on their backsides and do nothing, by the same government that now tells us there’s no money left, despite paying exorbitant ROSCO leasing costs and handing money to benefits claimants;
- the railway has continued to provide an important service throughout the pandemic. Trains were not empty for the most part, and we are now back to heavy usage and regular overcrowding. This is an industry with an important future.
- my union will continue to cause havoc in this industry if we are not given a reasonable settlement - note an overtime ban by my union will have more effect than strike action….

Yes, so it’s a devolved issue in Scotland and Wales so is not relevant in England. And that’s before we start thinking about some the peculiarities of how ‘the pot’ is distributed, but that’s probably for another thread…

It’s absolutely relevant, in fact it’s a direct comparator, because the settlement has been extended to the same unions representing people doing the same jobs. It’s also not a million miles from what has been offered to other areas of the “public sector” who are less self funding than the railway.

How the DfT can expect revenue to recover when they aren't restoring the frequencies? Many routes simply don't stand a chance as things stand.

And even if we put the whole union “do we deserve a pay rise” thing to one side, this is an extremely powerful argument in favour of settling the current dispute, as it should have been settled months ago.

well, it feels like this dispute has been going on for a long time. I’ve aged. A lot.

You’re not alone in feeling like that!

It’s not just the rail sector. It’s almost every where. On average, all wages have. In the past 10 years, RPI has been +44% cumulative, average wages +33%. Although to be fair, that 11% gap only started opening from mid 2016. I wonder what triggered that?

Indeed. And the Conservatives wonder why they’re struggling. Yet more austerity holds little appeal after a decade of it it has singularly failed to improve the lot of most people in this country. In fact many are now worse off, and that won’t win votes during a cost of living crisis.

 

[Bald Rick]

That may be the broad picture but in general, most routes have at best the same frequency as pre-Covid. And many have a much worse frequency, with more cuts yet to come in May. Overall I'd call that a substantial cut.

Now come on, you’re a sensible chap. Substantial on some routes, and/or at some times yes. But in two weeks time (unions permitting) we’ll be running only 7-8% fewer trains network wide than in 2019. Accepting that some routes have reduced services, it means there’s an awful lot that don’t. East Anglia for example. The West Country. Wales. Long distance services on the ECML and MML. And plenty more.

 

[Watershed]

Come on, it’s not realistic to talk about service frequencies increasing when we can’t resource the ones we already have!

Well, a lot of that is due to the failure to agree a payrise, which has led to rest day working being withdrawn at many operators. Obviously some TOCs would still struggle to resource a pre-Covid level of frequency with RDW in place, but ultimately it is DfT decisions on funding that have led to this situation.

Clearly they think they know best, but without having tried to reinstate the pre-Covid frequencies, how will we ever know?

Now come on. Substantial on some routes, at some times yes. But in two weeks time (unions permitting) we’ll be running only 7-8% fewer trains network wide than in 2019. Accepting that some routes have reduced services, it means there’s an awful lot that don’t. East Anglia for example. The West Country. Wales. Long distance services on the ECML and MML. And plenty more.

A 7-8% reduction merely means that perhaps half of routes have a pre-Covid level of service, and the other half have much less. Perhaps the ratios are different, but you get the gist. The picture is a very uneven one, with no clear explanation (as far as the general public is concerned) why this is the case.

Whilst East Anglia, the West Country, Wales and certain mainlines have done very well for themselves, the same certainly cannot be said of Scotland, the Midlands, NW or NE.

 

[Gorlash1886]

Don't forget the south east we are heaving most of the time

 

[JonathanH]

Don't forget the south east we are heaving most of the time

What is the South East heaving?

 

[bramling]

Indeed. And the Conservatives wonder why they’re struggling. Yet more austerity holds little appeal after a decade of it it has singularly failed to improve the lot of most people in this country.

Part of the problem is we’ve had a run of PMs who seem to have wanted the job, but had little idea what they actually wanted to *do* once inside no.10.

Johnson was the worst offender, arguably May as well. Now we have Sunak. Ironically I wouldn’t include Truss in this, for all her failings at least she had a plan and actually had an intention of implementing it.

 

[Gorlash1886]

What is the South East heaving?

No need to be pedantic, the trains are rammed even on a 12car it's crush loading

 

[Bald Rick]

Which trains? Some are, sure. But many, many fewer than three years ago.

 

[JonathanH]

No need to be pedantic, the trains are rammed even on a 12car it's crush loading

Certainly weren't on Monday night. The 8-car 1906 from St Pancras to Bedford left St Pancras with spare seats. I had a carriage to myself after Watford Junction on the 1927 London Euston to Milton Keynes Central and only had to share with two other people before then.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yet more austerity holds little appeal after a decade of it it has singularly failed to improve the lot of most people in this country.

The gap started appearing more than half a decade after ‘austerity’. Something else must have caused it around mid 2016

 

[alistairlees]

Gorlash1886 said:

No need to be pedantic, the trains are rammed even on a 12car it's crush loading

Unfortunately on Southeastern peak trains into London this is far from true:
- fewer services than before
- none are 12 car (8 car instead)
- they are still not full (except for perhaps one or two from Orpington / Chelsfield)

it feels like about 50% of what it was before Covid (I am referring to the Hastings line to London)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

My arguments for rail staff would be:

- it isn’t a pay rise, it’s a reduction in the real terms loss in wages I’ve already suffered after a pay freeze for several years;
- we were so called “key workers” who had to keep working at a time when much of the population was being paid (by government borrowing) to sit on their backsides and do nothing, by the same government that now tells us there’s no money left, despite paying exorbitant ROSCO leasing costs and handing money to benefits claimants;
- the railway has continued to provide an important service throughout the pandemic. Trains were not empty for the most part, and we are now back to heavy usage and regular overcrowding. This is an industry with an important future.
- my union will continue to cause havoc in this industry if we are not given a reasonable settlement - note an overtime ban by my union will have more effect than strike action….

Remember people were told to sit at home by govt not by choice and only got 80% of earnings. I support what your doing but wouldn't go around calling it creating havoc as that will undermine the cause. Ultimately though what ive seen from you and others still in the frontline is that a modest payrise of 5-7% would be accepted which shows extreme reasonableness given the lack of rises in the past few years. Any sensible govt should bite your hands off which is what the devolved administrations have done. They probably budgeted for 3% so if its 7% thats only 4% to find and given losses being racked up on strike days im sure it could be found.

 

[43066]

Don't forget the south east we are heaving most of the time

Perhaps they should close the northern bits, and just focus on better funding the south eastern-ish bit, at least the bits that go as far up the country as South Yorks .

Part of the problem is we’ve had a run of PMs who seem to have wanted the job, but had little idea what they actually wanted to *do* once inside no.10.

Johnson was the worst offender, arguably May as well. Now we have Sunak. Ironically I wouldn’t include Truss in this, for all her failings at least she had a plan and actually had an intention of implementing it.

Unfortunately the dire economic situation has everything to do with the massive and ludicrous levels of government borrowing in response to a minor respiratory virus. That is fundamentally what has, barring a miracle, damned the conservatives to a lengthy spell in opposition. That’s the case irrespective of leader. Sunak will likely do better than Truss who, had she continued even a few days longer, would have precipitated an immediate GE.

The gap started appearing more than half a decade after ‘austerity’. Something else must have caused it around mid 2016

Growth has largely stagnated since the financial crisis (the last round of inflationary spending, albeit more justified and much of it largely reversed). Since then living standards haven’t risen by anything like the extent they did prior to 2008. That is not an attractive picture.

Let’s not start blaming Brexit!

I support what your doing but wouldn't go around calling it creating havoc as that will undermine the cause.

Agree with the sentiment - I just meant to say realistically it will continue to cause havoc, certainly not intended in a gloating way. Especially in the run up to Christmas.

I should emphasise that nobody going out on strike wants that, nor do they want to continue losing money. We all just want this to end amicably and for normality to return. However support for the action is massive and doesn’t show signs of dwindling, in fact quite the opposite.

Ultimately though what ive seen from you and others still in the frontline is that a modest payrise of 5-7% would be accepted which shows extreme reasonableness given the lack of rises in the past few years. Any sensible govt should bite your hands off which is what the devolved administrations have done. They probably budgeted for 3% so if its 7% thats only 4% to find and given losses being racked up on strike days im sure it could be found.

I’m glad this comes across and that’s absolutely the sense I get of what the front line element of the industry is looking for.

The cuts on the maintenance side are certainly a worry for all of us.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Certainly weren't on Monday night. The 8-car 1906 from St Pancras to Bedford left St Pancras with spare seats. I had a carriage to myself after Watford Junction on the 1927 London Euston to Milton Keynes Central and only had to share with two other people before then.

Sounds like a job for 5.730.

 

[HSTEd]

The gap started appearing more than half a decade after ‘austerity’. Something else must have caused it around mid 2016

I'd suggest the rot started setting an awful long time before austerity or 2016.
Economic, industrial and energy policy in Britain has esssentially not existed in my lifetime.
Housing policy basically ceased to exist in about 1992.

The current energy crisis mess is the inevitable consequence of the Electricity Act 1989, ultimately.

Honestly, the railway is going to have some kind of reckoning - I'm not sure we've had many meaningful operations-side innovations since privatisation.
We are still running a railway from the 1980s in many senses, and we no longer live in the 1980s.

 

[43066]

I'm not sure we've had many meaningful operations-side innovations since privatisation.
We are still running a railway from the 1980s in many senses, and we no longer live in the 1980s.

I think you mean the 1880s. Parts of the railway I sign in 2022 still have 19th century semaphore signalling (sorry, I realise that won’t fit well with your hypertech, steel and concrete vision of the future.)

Mark my words, that will likely still be the case long after we’re both retired/dead.