Reinstating 4tph off-peak on the Hertford Loop and for Welwyn stoppers

[rmHawk765]

I do still remember when this line got a suitable service of 4tph off peak and if I remember correctly 6tph in the peak. Ever since COVID this hasn't returned and now we're stuck with 2tph and 4tph and there seem to be more cancellations and delays than ever. GTR's performance here is quite disappointing honestly for a London commuter line. All they've really done in terms of improvements is introducing the 717s, but any TOC would have had to do that anyway as the 313s were properly at their end of lives by 2019. Believe it or not, even under First the service was more frequent! And before you say 2tph is enough, I can tell you at times it really isn't, and honestly for a line like this it isn't really suitable anyway.

Is there any plan to reinstate this? I've checked the ECML recast plans and there seems to be nothing, which would be quite a missed opportunity IMHO. On this topic, is TfL by any chance interested again in taking over Hertford Loop services and Welwyn stoppers? I know they've kind of got bigger issues to contend with at the minute but they've sorted these sorts of problems out many times with previous Overground takeovers, I'm sure they could do it again. Though if they do take it over, they better actually increase the frequency, unlike when they took over Enfield Town and Cheshunt services from GA!

 

[MerlinRail 804]

I do still remember when this line got a suitable service of 4tph off peak and if I remember correctly 6tph in the peak. Ever since COVID this hasn't returned and now we're stuck with 2tph and 4tph and there seem to be more cancellations and delays than ever. GTR's performance here is quite disappointing honestly for a London commuter line. All they've really done in terms of improvements is introducing the 717s, but any TOC would have had to do that anyway as the 313s were properly at their end of lives by 2019. Believe it or not, even under First the service was more frequent! And before you say 2tph is enough, I can tell you at times it really isn't, and honestly for a line like this it isn't really suitable anyway.

Is there any plan to reinstate this? I've checked the ECML recast plans and there seems to be nothing, which would be quite a missed opportunity IMHO. On this topic, is TfL by any chance interested again in taking over Hertford Loop services and Welwyn stoppers? I know they've kind of got bigger issues to contend with at the minute but they've sorted these sorts of problems out many times with previous Overground takeovers, I'm sure they could do it again. Though if they do take it over, they better actually increase the frequency, unlike when they took over Enfield Town and Cheshunt services from GA!

I was actually very surprised when I found out it was just 2tph! I don’t think there are any plans to restore services, but it’s definitely not the only place in the country running as a shadow of its former self, (looking at you Chiltern!). I guess COVID has had some impact, but, for some services, like this one, there doesn’t actually seem to be much of a reason not to restore services, unlike examples like Chiltern who are suffering from lack of stock. Looking at RTT, it looks like roughly 10-12 trains are needed for the current service, which is just under half of the fleet, so 4tph could easily be supported. Not so sure about six though, and am happy to be corrected by people more knowledgeable than me!
I’m a firm believer in the saying “if you build it, they will come”, though obviously the TOCs and the (DfT) aren’t quite as much.

 

[liam456]

As somebody who lives on the Hertford Loop I too am still waiting for my 4tph. On the ECML timetable recast thread somebody did say that the rumoured service uplift was scheduled for the May 2026 timetable change.

 

[Class15]

The service on the Hertford loop is pretty appalling when compared against the spec pre-covid. For all those who always come onto threads like this saying ’things have changed post-Covid’ - that’s not correct, overground has reinstated a full service (even actually upgraded on the Euston-Watford route) and it’s very busy.

 

[rmHawk765]

As somebody who lives on the Hertford Loop I too am still waiting for my 4tph. On the ECML timetable recast thread somebody did say that the rumoured service uplift was scheduled for the May 2026 timetable change.

I too live on it, hence why I made this post. I am really hoping they get things up to standard again.

I was actually very surprised when I found out it was just 2tph! I don’t think there are any plans to restore services, but it’s definitely not the only place in the country running as a shadow of its former self, (looking at you Chiltern!). I guess COVID has had some impact, but, for some services, like this one, there doesn’t actually seem to be much of a reason not to restore services, unlike examples like Chiltern who are suffering from lack of stock. Looking at RTT, it looks like roughly 10-12 trains are needed for the current service, which is just under half of the fleet, so 4tph could easily be supported. Not so sure about six though, and am happy to be corrected by people more knowledgeable than me!
I’m a firm believer in the saying “if you build it, they will come”, though obviously the TOCs and the (DfT) aren’t quite as much.

I do believe it was at least 5tph in the peak. I'll try to find a pre COVID GTR timetable to confirm that though.

 

[Class15]

GTR as a whole is refusing to reverse COVID cuts even though COVID is gone, it’s not just on GN. Thameslink STILL aren’t running the Orpington-Kentish Town in the morning peak, let alone the whole day (and there’s hardly a shortage of 700s). Southern binned off 65 serviceable units with no replacement at the time, and are now being ‘replaced’ by a handful of 387s from Great Northern.

 

[BranstonJnc]

With the ERTMS on the Moorgate route, it was supposed to increase Moorgate to 14tph wasn't it? It was held at 12tph (a train every 5 minutes), but 14tph would have made the space for 8tph to Hertford / Stevenage / Gordon Hill and 6tph to Welwyn in due time at high peak. If you did that, you could *probably* bin off the Welwyn Thameslink, and transition it / convert it to the Letchworth fast services north of Finsbury Park. Might need a bit of a recast, but it would homogenise the entire suburban offering at places like New Barnet to 717s and Moorgate, and increase through Thameslink services at places like Welwyn North and Hitchin.

 

[rmHawk765]

GTR as a whole is refusing to reverse COVID cuts even though COVID is gone, it’s not just on GN. Thameslink STILL aren’t running the Orpington-Kentish Town in the morning peak, let alone the whole day (and there’s hardly a shortage of 700s). Southern binned off 65 serviceable units with no replacement at the time, and are now being ‘replaced’ by a handful of 387s from Great Northern.

Given GTR just performs terribly across the board I really hope something gets down about it. Maybe GTR will get replaced entirely. I excuse them for not being able to keep running all GN services down the Hertford Loop when the entire ECML is diverted down it - but cancellations and random delays often happen on other days with zero explanation!

With the ERTMS on the Moorgate route, it was supposed to increase Moorgate to 14tph wasn't it? It was held at 12tph (a train every 5 minutes), but 14tph would have made the space for 8tph to Hertford / Stevenage / Gordon Hill and 6tph to Welwyn in due time at high peak. If you did that, you could *probably* bin off the Welwyn Thameslink, and transition it / convert it to the Letchworth fast services north of Finsbury Park. Might need a bit of a recast, but it would homogenise the entire suburban offering at places like New Barnet to 717s and Moorgate, and increase through Thameslink services at places like Welwyn North and Hitchin.

Yes - everything is already here to support much more frequent operation, and ETCS on the ECML will make it even better - but it appears GTR doesn't really care...

 

[BranstonJnc]

Given GTR just performs terribly across the board I really hope something gets down about it. Maybe GTR will get replaced entirely. I excuse them for not being able to keep running all GN services down the Hertford Loop when the entire ECML is diverted down it - but cancellations and random delays often happen on other days with zero explanation!


Yes - everything is already here to support much more frequent operation, and ETCS on the ECML will make it even better - but it appears GTR doesn't really care...

The fact that the Slow Line 2 (both up and down) was reinstated, was supposed to enable a decent number of extra services as stuff wasn't now battling to use the slows through the platforms. In theory, all Hertford trains could just not stop at Harringay or Hornsey, and remove all the conflicting moves. Harringay and Hornsey aren't "small" stations but the likelihood of people being agitated at being stood for 90 seconds or 3.5 minutes to Finsbury Park is almost a nonsense.

Given the closeness of stations such as Manor House and Turnpike Lane and their superior frequencies and through connections to the centre of London, you don't need those Harringay and Hornsey calls.

To get to a slightly mismatched (e.g. not quarter-hourly) timetable of 8tph via Hertford, would be very positive. Especially as it would probably allow the Stevenage service to be accelerated, maybe being even fast from Finsbury Park to Palmers Green.

You'd effectively get a sort of service out of Moorgate like this:
- xx:00 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:04 Gordon Hill semi-fast (not Harringay or Hornsey), e.g. also not Grange Park. Benefits Hertford as this will pick up a lot of people after an 8 minute gap.
- xx:09 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
- xx:13 Welwyn, fast from Finsbury Park to New Southgate, possibly not Brookmans Park and Welham Green.
- xx:17 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:21 Stevenage semi-fast, non-stop from Finsbury Park to Palmers Green and perhaps not Grange Park, Crews Hill or Bayford.
- xx:26 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
And then again with 30 minutes added.

The xx:00 off Moorgate leaves Finsbury at about xx:14, and the xx:17 off Moorgate leaves Finsbury at about xx:31. Slot the Cambridge / Letchworth / Royston 'stopper' in just in front of that xx:00 Moorgate / xx:14 Finsbury, and add in stops at Ally Pally and New Barnet during high peak, and it won't quite catch the Welwyn in front. You've now got the right mix of traffic, a few extra big station stops, and less trains running around with 2 or 3 minutes of pathing time.

You also get the benefit of redeploying 8/700s off the Welwyn semi-fast from Sevenoaks and into a path departing Finsbury straight onto the fast lines and non-stop to Welwyn North, to be the high-peak Royston / Letchworth fast-ish.

 

[liam456]

The fact that the Slow Line 2 (both up and down) was reinstated, was supposed to enable a decent number of extra services as stuff wasn't now battling to use the slows through the platforms. In theory, all Hertford trains could just not stop at Harringay or Hornsey, and remove all the conflicting moves. Harringay and Hornsey aren't "small" stations but the likelihood of people being agitated at being stood for 90 seconds or 3.5 minutes to Finsbury Park is almost a nonsense.

To get to a slightly mismatched (e.g. not quarter-hourly) timetable of 8tph via Hertford, would be very positive. Especially as it would probably allow the Stevenage service to be accelerated, maybe being even fast from Finsbury Park to Palmers Green.

You'd effectively get a sort of service out of Moorgate like this:
- xx:00 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:04 Gordon Hill semi-fast (not Harringay or Hornsey), e.g. also not Grange Park. Benefits Hertford as this will pick up a lot of people after an 8 minute gap.
- xx:09 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
- xx:13 Welwyn, fast from Finsbury Park to New Southgate, possibly not Brookmans Park and Welham Green.
- xx:17 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:21 Stevenage semi-fast, non-stop from Finsbury Park to Palmers Green and perhaps not Grange Park, Crews Hill or Bayford.
- xx:26 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
And then again with 30 minutes added.

If only...

Would there still be a plus to having a regular interval timetable making it easier for passengers to understand, particularly in the off peak?

 

[BranstonJnc]

If only...

Would there still be a plus to having a regular interval timetable making it easier for passengers to understand, particularly in the off peak?

Well of course, if you're talking about off peak you're probably only talking about 8tph out of Moorgate, 4 to Welwyn, 2 to Hertford and 2 to Stevenage. All of those could probably stop at Harringay and Hornsey if sorely needed, but actually not doing that and having a touch of extra capacity on the slows would allow some through container traffic from Tilbury or other freight not to have to dick about at Holloway / Finsbury.

 

[OneOfThe48]

Thameslink STILL aren’t running the Orpington-Kentish Town in the morning peak,

Do you mean extra Orpington - Kentish Town services above the current half-hourly service?

Realtime Trains | Departures from Orpington all day on 11/04/2025

Train information at Orpington all day on 11/04/2025. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Ultimately, off-peak services typically come down to money and whether the DfT want to do it, rather than desire on the part of operators.

 

[Route115?]

Just to think Moorgate had 18 tph during the peak when the line was opened in the late 70s and 6tph off-peak (split evenly between the two branches. Mind you there were only 3 outer tph off peak (7 during the busiest hour) against 8 now. Mind you the inners had one of the worst operating ratios in the London area, whereas the outers made money.

 

[BranstonJnc]

Do you mean extra Orpington - Kentish Town services above the current half-hourly service?

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...25-04-11/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Ultimately, off-peak services typically come down to money and whether the DfT want to do it, rather than desire on the part of operators.

Correct, the peak service is running. I think the OP might be discussing the fact that there was supposed to be 4tph all day round the Loop, which is absolutely necessary. It was why they reduced the quarter-hourly Penge East service from Victoria to Orpington, to a mix of Orpington and Bromley South, as the capacity at Petts Wood would not have supported 6tph round from Bickley.

One has to eventually get to a point where you argue in favour of an all-day quarter-hourly service from Orpington that is solely Thameslink, along the Catford Loop. This would mean journeys and connections at Orpington, and Bromley South (and even Catford / Catford Bridge) are made much better for the behemoth that is Denmark Hill, and it's onward connections to places like Clapham Junction.

If you then assume the Penge East route stoppers need a place to go, and Orpington isn't it, then you would say giving Southeastern back the Sevenoaks via Otford (which would mean a single operator at St Mary Cray, Swanley, Otford) is a sensible step, and the quarter-hourly service along that Bromley - St Mary Cray - Swanley axis would be particularly good. Same-platform connections are even available at Bromley South, or Shortlands or Bickley.

You can then run your half-hourly Gillingham 'stopper' via Denmark Hill. That would be Victoria, Denmark Hill, and you could probably make a strong case for Catford by now so that journeys like Longfield to Lewisham are made significantly better, and for a future Bakerloo extension. Don't include a St Mary Cray stop (let the Ashford services do that), and this would allow the Kent Coast trains to be accelerated again.

Kent Coast fast trains are then able to just run non-stop from Bromley to Rochester every 30 minutes as they should do, and your Ashford services can be from Victoria to Maidstone East, with the St Mary Cray stop.

Finish up with a half-hourly all-day Charing Cross to Ashford via Maidstone East, as the Thameslink service is probably never coming to Maidstone, and that one can be non-stop from London Bridge to either Swanley, Otford, or Borough Green. It would be a great service from places out like Bearsted, or Lenham (lots of housebuilding), and give the direct journey to the more sensible London Bridge (commuting) and Charing Cross (leisure) throughout the day, and without needing to include St Mary Cray, or Kemsing, or East Malling. You are probably looking at an end-to-end London Bridge to Bearsted time of 54 minutes, compared to the current 70 minutes from Victoria with the extra suburban stops.

 

[Class15]

Do you mean extra Orpington - Kentish Town services above the current half-hourly service?

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...25-04-11/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

Ultimately, off-peak services typically come down to money and whether the DfT want to do it, rather than desire on the part of operators.

Correct, the peak service is running. I think the OP might be discussing the fact that there was supposed to be 4tph all day round the Loop, which is absolutely necessary.

I mean in the morning peak! I don’t commute from Orpington, I commute from Kentish Town. The last departure to Orpington from Kentish Town is at 06:41 which is utterly useless for me and most people. The St Albans to Sutton services at 4tph are not really satisfactory considering the number of stations they serve before reaching Kentish Town. That’s why the Orpington trains are so useful, they relieve the St Albans trains of the many Kentish Town commuters.

 

[rmHawk765]

Given the closeness of stations such as Manor House and Turnpike Lane and their superior frequencies and through connections to the centre of London, you don't need those Harringay and Hornsey calls.

I agree with this - and honestly I don't think the stops at Essex Road and Old Street make sense either, though I would imagine they don't make too big of an impact. Drayton Park is barely used as well but given it's in the ETCS NTC for the Northern City Line it probably needs to be kept.

You'd effectively get a sort of service out of Moorgate like this:
- xx:00 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:04 Gordon Hill semi-fast (not Harringay or Hornsey), e.g. also not Grange Park. Benefits Hertford as this will pick up a lot of people after an 8 minute gap.
- xx:09 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
- xx:13 Welwyn, fast from Finsbury Park to New Southgate, possibly not Brookmans Park and Welham Green.
- xx:17 Welwyn all stations.
- xx:21 Stevenage semi-fast, non-stop from Finsbury Park to Palmers Green and perhaps not Grange Park, Crews Hill or Bayford.
- xx:26 Hertford North all stations (not Harringay or Hornsey).
And then again with 30 minutes added.

Well of course, if you're talking about off peak you're probably only talking about 8tph out of Moorgate, 4 to Welwyn, 2 to Hertford and 2 to Stevenage. All of those could probably stop at Harringay and Hornsey if sorely needed, but actually not doing that and having a touch of extra capacity on the slows would allow some through container traffic from Tilbury or other freight not to have to dick about at Holloway / Finsbury.

This certainly makes a lot of sense. I do think for the off-peak having all trains going via the Hertford Loop go all the way to Stevenage makes sense as that way the whole line gets a 4tph service, but at the same time it would only really benefit the comparatively few people on the northern section actually going to Stevenage, so it's not as needed. Maybe 2 of the services to Welwyn and possibly also Hertford services could stop at Harringay and Hornsey? Though personally I think these stations don't make any sense.

 

[liam456]

Hornsey and Harringey are reasonably well patronised in the morning and evening peaks. Harringay in particular is quite useful to connect to the Suffragette line with a reasonable stroll (only when downhill!)

But skipping stations in the tunnel surely doesn't make sense without a line to actually bypass them.

 

[BranstonJnc]

I mean in the morning peak! I don’t commute from Orpington, I commute from Kentish Town. The last departure to Orpington from Kentish Town is at 06:41 which is utterly useless for me and most people. The St Albans to Sutton services at 4tph are not really satisfactory considering the number of stations they serve before reaching Kentish Town. That’s why the Orpington trains are so useful, they relieve the St Albans trains of the many Kentish Town commuters.

I mean, one could reasonably suggest that a quick change at St Pancras or Blackfriars is not a world-ender. When you look at the peak timetable, they're trying to squeeze loads into the Core and stopping more stuff at Kentish Town, when the connections from West Hampstead and St Pancras collectively are just as good, isn't necessarily going to meet a business case.

Add in that the northbound services from places like Orpington do call at Kentish Town, and the evening peak return journeys do stop / start at Kentish Town, and it's not an awful service. I will surmise that Kentish Town commuters aren't the biggest part of the entire network as they are potentially only getting on to go about 9 or 14 minutes into town and then off to finish their journey another way.

West Hampstead, on the flip side, is 10tph at peak time into London. That's excellent, and strikes a good balance. If you are at Kentish Town and need to get to somewhere like Orpington, I will hazard that the Northern line to London Bridge or Charing Cross and a fast train is better, and if you need Bromley South, you may be just as well-served going to Herne Hill and swapping there for a same platform. It's a very niche market and when you're trying to spread all of those journeys and needs about, there will be losers.

 

[Class15]

I mean, one could reasonably suggest that a quick change at St Pancras or Blackfriars is not a world-ender. When you look at the peak timetable, they're trying to squeeze loads into the Core and stopping more stuff at Kentish Town, when the connections from West Hampstead and St Pancras collectively are just as good, isn't necessarily going to meet a business case.

Add in that the northbound services from places like Orpington do call at Kentish Town, and the evening peak return journeys do stop / start at Kentish Town, and it's not an awful service. I will surmise that Kentish Town commuters aren't the biggest part of the entire network as they are potentially only getting on to go about 9 or 14 minutes into town and then off to finish their journey another way.

West Hampstead, on the flip side, is 10tph at peak time into London. That's excellent, and strikes a good balance. If you are at Kentish Town and need to get to somewhere like Orpington, I will hazard that the Northern line to London Bridge or Charing Cross and a fast train is better, and if you need Bromley South, you may be just as well-served going to Herne Hill and swapping there for a same platform. It's a very niche market and when you're trying to spread all of those journeys and needs about, there will be losers.

That is all correct. My issue is that 4 trains per hour at Kentish Town in the morning peak is not great particularly as those 4tph are also the only trains to serve Cricklewood and Hendon, and also stop at places such as Mill Hill, Elstree, Brent Cross West and West Hampstead. The extra 2tph in the morning from Kentish Town would be greatly appreciated. In the evening peak, I find these services invaluable as the St Albans trains are frequently full-and-standing and the Kentish Town trains are much, much easier and more pleasant. (BTW, I don’t really mind if they terminate at Orpington or somewhere else, I only use them to the city!)

 

[BranstonJnc]

I agree with this - and honestly I don't think the stops at Essex Road and Old Street make sense either, though I would imagine they don't make too big of an impact. Drayton Park is barely used as well but given it's in the ETCS NTC for the Northern City Line it probably needs to be kept.



This certainly makes a lot of sense. I do think for the off-peak having all trains going via the Hertford Loop go all the way to Stevenage makes sense as that way the whole line gets a 4tph service, but at the same time it would only really benefit the comparatively few people on the northern section actually going to Stevenage, so it's not as needed. Maybe 2 of the services to Welwyn and possibly also Hertford services could stop at Harringay and Hornsey? Though personally I think these stations don't make any sense.

You wouldn't find any benefit to skipping stations once in the Finsbury Park - Moorgate section, but sorting out how to use the Finsbury Park - Alexandra section to the fullest effect is definitely something that would be quite important. If you assume that Harringay and Hornsey collectively contribute about 4,000 people per day, and have 4,000 or so coming back, split across 4tph even at high peak (362 seats and however much standing capacity, and no risk of a 3 vice 6 anymore), and over the period of about 08:00 - 08:59 you'd probably be okay, given how many people board at those two stations throughout the whole day. It's not major commuter territory, and making someone stand for 90 seconds from Harringay to Finsbury wouldn't lose you any revenue, as there'd be no sensible alternative mode to shift.

That is all correct. My issue is that 4 trains per hour at Kentish Town in the morning peak is not great particularly as those 4tph are also the only trains to serve Cricklewood and Hendon, and also stop at places such as Mill Hill, Elstree, Brent Cross West and West Hampstead. The extra 2tph in the morning from Kentish Town would be greatly appreciated. In the evening peak, I find these services invaluable as the St Albans trains are frequently full-and-standing and the Kentish Town trains are much, much easier and more pleasant. (BTW, I don’t really mind if they terminate at Orpington or somewhere else, I only use them to the city!)

Yes of course we can all want more services, the key part of this being that Kentish Town is so close to London, and has quite literally got the Northern line on site (which even moves you to St Pancras), that you could probably actually not call trains at Kentish Town at all, to be blunt. The only thing I'm noticing is that the Rainham services in the morning have a lot of chew-up time on the way into the Core, so a Kentish Town stop would probably be possible. Not sure about the northbound, but there's a 5.5 minute gap at Radlett Jn before the fast train crosses to the slow northbound, so a 30 second Kentish Town stop might not destroy everything.

Even then, it's more deckchairs on Titanics, as you're going to get very little extra benefit. Kentish Town probably has more benefit from northbound contra-peak services to make the journeys from the Northern line and elsewhere in London via there more possible?

I have no overall opinion on Kentish Town. I think its a ghastly station.

 

[Magdalia]

Just to think Moorgate had 18 tph during the peak when the line was opened in the late 70s

That's irrelevant. It was recognised to be a vast over provision and was quickly reduced to about 12 tph.

In the boom period of the City finance boom and Network SouthEast the service was 10 tph peak and 5 tph off peak.

Comparisons in the peak now need to take account of the 2 tph that Welwyn Garden City has to/from the Thameslink core, which abstract traffic from the Moorgate line. There is also a huge amount of interchange between Thameslink and the GN inner suburban services at Finsbury Park.

In total the service now isn't much different to what it was then.

I agree with this - and honestly I don't think the stops at Essex Road and Old Street make sense either, though I would imagine they don't make too big of an impact. Drayton Park is barely used as well but given it's in the ETCS NTC for the Northern City Line it probably needs to be kept.

The Finsbury Park-Moorgate service only makes sense as all stations. In particular it is not possible to eliminate Drayton Park because that's where the power supply is changed between OHL and 3rd rail.

If you did that, you could *probably* bin off the Welwyn Thameslink, and transition it / convert it to the Letchworth fast services north of Finsbury Park.

An absolute and emphatic no! This is the resurrection of the dreaded Cambridge-Maidstone East that nearly everyone hoped had finally been completely buried, and has to be rejected for all of the same reasons.

I have no overall opinion on Kentish Town. I think its a ghastly station.

That looks like an overall opinion to me!

 

[BranstonJnc]

That's irrelevant. It was quickly recognised to be a vast over provision and was quickly reduced to about 12 tph.

In the boom period of the City finance boom and Network SouthEast the service was 10 tph peak and 5 tph off peak.

Comparisons in the peak now need to take account of the 2 tph that Welwyn Garden City has to/from the Thameslink core, which abstract traffic from the Moorgate line. There is also a huge amount of interchange between Thameslink and the GN inner suburban services at Finsbury Park.

In total the service now isn't much different to what it was then.


The Finsbury Park-Moorgate service only makes sense as all stations. In particular it is not possible to eliminate Drayton Park because that's where the power supply is changed between OHL and 3rd rail.


An absolute and emphatic no! This is the resurrection of the dreaded Cambridge-Maidstone East that nearly everyone hoped had finally been completely buried.



That looks like an overall opinion to me!

Considering that the Welwyn and Hertford stoppers (including the semi-stopper Welwyn, currently a Sevenoaks to Welwyn) are absolutely ripe for being just handed to London Overground with a single fleet, it would make so much sense to just do the Switcheroo and have the high peak Kings X - Welwyn North - Letchworth 'fast-ish' as an 8/700 in its place. That way you are actually giving Knebworth and Welwyn North, at peak at least, a through service to the Core when they don't have it. New Southgate and New Barnet might like their little Core link, but if push came to shove, it would be better that they just have a totally standard Moorgate destination and swap at Finsbury, where it's same or cross-platform.

 

[Magdalia]

That way you are actually giving Knebworth and Welwyn North, at peak at least, a through service to the Core when they don't have it.

Welwyn North must never have a through service to/from the core. That's because trains stopping at Welwyn North take roughly twice as long as non-stopping trains to pass through the heavily congested 2 track section. They are thus critical for punctuality all the way to Scotland, and for platform occupation at Kings Cross. That's why they must run to/from Kings Cross, not through the core, to give them their best shot at running punctually. The benefits of linking Welwyn North with the core are tiny but the costs are huge.

 

[rmHawk765]

The Finsbury Park-Moorgate service only makes sense as all stations. In particular it is not possible to eliminate Drayton Park because that's where the power supply is changed between OHL and 3rd rail.

Ah yes I completely forgot about the power changeover. Well anyway the NTC being there means you can't eliminate it as well.

 

[BranstonJnc]

Welwyn North must never have a through service to/from the core. That's because trains stopping at Welwyn North take roughly twice as long as non-stopping trains to pass through the heavily congested 2 track section. They are thus critical for punctuality all the way to Scotland, and for platform occupation at Kings Cross. That's why they must run to/from Kings Cross, not through the core, to give them their best shot at running punctually. The benefits of linking Welwyn North with the core are tiny but the costs are huge.

I would have found that admittedly hard to believe, if the service is commencing at Letchworth, and therefore likely to have very limited impacts, certainly in the morning on the way up. For the returns in evening peak I can sort of understand, but any train which has a door fault, or has been delayed inbound to KX, will have just as much chance of completely destroying the two track section. You can't make anything perfect, so you would just have to make it the least bad.

 

[Failed Unit]

I was actually very surprised when I found out it was just 2tph! I don’t think there are any plans to restore services, but it’s definitely not the only place in the country running as a shadow of its former self, (looking at you Chiltern!). I guess COVID has had some impact, but, for some services, like this one, there doesn’t actually seem to be much of a reason not to restore services, unlike examples like Chiltern who are suffering from lack of stock. Looking at RTT, it looks like roughly 10-12 trains are needed for the current service, which is just under half of the fleet, so 4tph could easily be supported. Not so sure about six though, and am happy to be corrected by people more knowledgeable than me!
I’m a firm believer in the saying “if you build it, they will come”, though obviously the TOCs and the (DfT) aren’t quite as much.

GTR I believed don't have enought drivers to run an enhanced services. Covid is just a nice excuse (although I may have slowed down the driver training programme) - They stuggle to run the current timetable with the resources they have so going back to 4tph will give lots of cancelations (I think they should ASAP) - hopefully the May 2026 rumour is true. They may have got the training backlog complete by then.

 

[MerlinRail 804]

GTR I believed don't have enought drivers to run an enhanced services. Covid is just a nice excuse (although I may have slowed down the driver training programme) - They stuggle to run the current timetable with the resources they have so going back to 4tph will give lots of cancelations (I think they should ASAP) - hopefully the May 2026 rumour is true. They may have got the training backlog complete by then.

In the context of the UK, that makes complete sense, though I’m sure plenty of other countries and rail networks wouldn’t have let that become a problem in the first place. Perhaps we’re just good as a country at making bad excuses seem reasonable!

 

[Magdalia]

you can't make anything perfect, so you would just have to make it the least bad.

You are right, and, in the case of the 2 track section at Welwyn, the least bad option is to choose not run the trains stopping at Welwyn North through the Thameslink core.

 

[43074]

Considering that the Welwyn and Hertford stoppers (including the semi-stopper Welwyn, currently a Sevenoaks to Welwyn) are absolutely ripe for being just handed to London Overground with a single fleet, it would make so much sense to just do the Switcheroo and have the high peak Kings X - Welwyn North - Letchworth 'fast-ish' as an 8/700 in its place. That way you are actually giving Knebworth and Welwyn North, at peak at least, a through service to the Core when they don't have it. New Southgate and New Barnet might like their little Core link, but if push came to shove, it would be better that they just have a totally standard Moorgate destination and swap at Finsbury, where it's same or cross-platform.

Although the stock is largely self-contained, there is a fair bit of cross-cover between traincrew who work GN inner and outer services at Welwyn and Hornsey traincrew depots so that would need untangling.

There are more passengers from New Southgate/New Barnet etc to the core than there ever would be from Knebworth/Welwyn North (albeit Knebworth gains southbound Horsham calls from December, presumably to aid pathing everything over the viaduct). Welwyn to Sevenoaks services have been popular since they were added in May 2022 in fairness, their "little core link" is actually quite well used and established from the GN inners stations these days.

I would have found that admittedly hard to believe, if the service is commencing at Letchworth, and therefore likely to have very limited impacts, certainly in the morning on the way up. For the returns in evening peak I can sort of understand, but any train which has a door fault, or has been delayed inbound to KX, will have just as much chance of completely destroying the two track section. You can't make anything perfect, so you would just have to make it the least bad.

The issue is more with lining up paths which can accommodate calls at Welwyn North on the ECML with the few vacant high peak paths through the TL core, as there's no guarantee the two will necessarily line up! Although as Magdalia points out performance would be a consideration too, perhaps less so with a service starting from Letchworth than Cambridge perhaps.

 

[BranstonJnc]

Although the stock is largely self-contained, there is a fair bit of cross-cover between traincrew who work GN inner and outer services at Welwyn and Hornsey traincrew depots so that would need untangling.

There are more passengers from New Southgate/New Barnet etc to the core than there ever would be from Knebworth/Welwyn North (albeit Knebworth gains southbound Horsham calls from December, presumably to aid pathing everything over the viaduct). Welwyn to Sevenoaks services have been popular since they were added in May 2022 in fairness, their "little core link" is actually quite well used and established from the GN inners stations these days.


The issue is more with lining up paths which can accommodate calls at Welwyn North on the ECML with the few vacant high peak paths through the TL core, as there's no guarantee the two will necessarily line up! Although as Magdalia points out performance would be a consideration too, perhaps less so with a service starting from Letchworth than Cambridge perhaps.

Knebworth back in a Peterborough semi-fast? Back to the future, in the olden days a fair few Peterborough services (not the fast to Biggleswade ones) had Knebworth stops.

In respect of any sort of changes, of course you'd need to path accordingly, and you may need to recast. But theoretically, nothing is impossible, if there's enough willpower pan-industry. Assuming GBR becomes the 'guiding mind' and actually sets out all the paths itself, you would just then need to overlay that train plan with stock and crew. It would certainly make things better, as they can then balance off everything in a non-competitive way.