Well, if we're removing (pre Covid) 3tph Atherton, 4tph CLC, 2tph Glossop, 2 or 4tph depending if it's one or both routes to Marple, plus likely service cuts to other destinations in the post Covid world, rather than looking at reallocating capacity I'd be asking how much the land at Victoria is worth.
The problem with such thinking is that it assumes that any cut* would be maintained forever and that people would still use rail services even if the station that they use no longer exists (remembering that many wouldn't use a station the next village over without getting in a car to get there, even though it may well be a distance whi
* If they were to happen at all, given rail is currently running at 40% of last year's figures with some very strong encouragements not to travel. Which leads to the question when did we last see that level of passenger use on the railways?
If it were 1985 then we'd probably all agree that there'd be a need for significant cuts, but what about 1995? Sounds there be if it that way the case, I'd imagine that more would start to argue that there shouldn't be cuts or that they be fairly limited in nature.
What if it was in 2005? How would your view change then? If it was then I'd imagine that the balance would be shifting towards not making cuts, and even many of those supporting cuts would agree that they would be limited in nature.
Hopefully I've given you enough of a chance to consider your possession based on when that 40% of 2010 passenger flows happened. If not please do so before reading on.
For those who have I'll give you some numbers in 2019 there was 1,795 million passenger trips, so 40% of this would be 718 million passenger trips.
Now here's the historical figures:
2005 1,076
2000 957
1995 761
1990 810
1985 686
As such it's probably late 80's and early 1990's that we had those figures.
However that's only part of the story, in that demands is very much suppressed with the rule of six, large areas where 2 households can't mix, much more working from home than they or their employers would like, etc.
As such where would passenger numbers likely to be one those restrictions are removed?
Even if getting back to 45% would put it late 1990's, whilst back to 60% (and only 50% more than current figures) would be 2005.
As such before we start looking to sell of city centre stations maybe we should wait a year or two to see what happens, as it's possible that were could see falls of just 10% (2015) to 20% (~2012). If that were to happen would it still be wise to cut services?