No, it doesn't. In a typical 2 car family that use both for commuting, there may be a newer car and an older car. During the week both are used, during the weekend only one is likely to be used, and that will be the newer one. For what it's worth I went down the road today and saw about 75% of cars were older than 12 plates, so depends on the area you live in.
If a 10 year old nissan leaf is £6k, there's no way the bottom-end of the market is going to be buying electric any time soon. A 2011 Nissan Micra is in the £1-2k range.
A new Nissan micra will cost £15k, and last 10 years at 5,000 miles a year without major expense for about £500 a year in petrol (£1.20/mile, 50mpg), £150 in VED. You might need 2 sets of brake pads in that time, so £30 a year. Total cost about £22k
A leaf will cost you £27k upfront (including subsidy) plus £150 a year in electric (based on 15kWh/100km and 12p/unit). Tyres will cost at least as much as the micra. Lets assume no brake issues. You're talking over £28k.
So you're saving £5k with the petrol version, and getting far more usability (the ability to do occasional cross-country journeys for example)
Electric cars will certainly come to dominate the £40k style range, I'd far rather have a Tesla than an Audi if I were into fancy cars, but for your typical small car used for a commute, there has to be a major collapse at the small end of the market. Trouble is that that will lead the demand for some form of road charging (even if it's a flat price per mile) to offset the money lost from not selling petrol for those cars, and that will further tip the balance away from small electric cars.
If we can't do an automated railway we're not going to be seeing automated taxis in the next 20 years. If we did, say goodbye to many rail stations. Your idea that public transport will be of any use for the 8,000 people living in the 3 council wards near me with a combined 12 bus services a day shows a lack of understanding of 'rural areas'. Villages with 2,000 people are not completely rural. Some might even have a regular bus service to one town or another.
Take Tarporley for example, 2500 people live in the village, but the surrounding council ward bumps that to 5,000. There's an hourly bus to Chester and one to Nantwich and Crewe. How does someone living in Tarporley get to Winsford, 10 miles away, for work? Northwich?
Elecritc cars will be great, but there are still two issues
1) At 15kwh for 100km, 330b km a year will take 50 TWh per year, requiring a 15% increase in electricity production. Not as bad as I thought, but still a significant amount of extra capacity.
2) 25% of cars are normally parked on the street (or often on the pavement), that's 8 million. How will they charge?
VED from cars raises about £5b a year.
Councils spend about £1b a year on road maintenence - https://www.driving.co.uk/news/councils-spent-2bn-road-repairs-since-2017/
Highways agency spends a similar amount - https://assets.publishing.service.g...ds/attachment_data/file/374676/FOI_712722.pdf
Capital improvements have been costing about £3b a year centrally (councils don't have enough money build new roads outside of s106 agreements), but this is doubling to £6b for the next 5 years.
So for the last 5 years VED alone has covered all road spending, including capital.
Other road related taxes aside from petrol and vat on petrol includes VAT on new cars (3 million cars at say 20k a year = 12b). If everyone walked, where would the money to fill that hole come from?
A 15% rose in energy use isn't that big of a problem, given that we've seen a 15% fall in energy demand since the peak.
However we'd still end up with lower energy use than the peak. If we used 100 units at peak that takes us to 85 units now, but 115% of 85 units is 97.8 units not 100 and so we only have to reprovide what we had before, just using a different energy mix.
However that assumes that there's no further energy savings to be had, although to be fair it also doesn't allow for increases in energy use due to the removal of gas networks. However both of which aren't going to be start to be mainstream until at least 2025 and still fairly limited in scope in 2030.
I'd also highlight that few but brand new cars to only use them for 5,000 miles a year (just work travel that's 11 miles each way), it doesn't take much of an increase to tip the balance back towards EV's. The other factor you omit is that of resale value, as you assume at the end of the calculation that there's a zero value in each of the vehicles, that's rarely the case.
However, your calculation does show that (excluding insurance and annual maintenance costs -where EV's could also see a reduction in costs) that either option is likely to be about £2,500 a year when averaged over the 10 years (or about 50p/mile). However that's excluding insurance and servicing, so it's likely to add a further £500 (depending on insurance and servicing cost) putting the cost per mile at circa 60p.
Many could but a bend new E-bike every couple of years and do the limited longer distance travel by train and still be much better off.
Rural areas are likely to still be more reliant on cars, however that's still going to be the minority as there's at least 85% of people (those that live in urban areas, plus those in the larger "rural" areas with the potential for half decent public transport) who could use walking, cycling and public transport a lot more.
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