Russia invades Ukraine

[uglymonkey]

When we took part in the Falklands, we had 50 odd Frigates and destroyers, today we have 6 destroyers and about 11 Frigates, the whole services have been completely hollowed out. 2 Nice new shiny aircraft carriers, but we can't afford enough aircraft for them for a decent air group. If it wasn't so bad it would be laughable. Never mind the Army and the Air Force. It's just a spiral of continued decline.

 

[najaB]

2 Nice new shiny aircraft carriers, but we can't afford enough aircraft for them for a decent air group.

Wouldn't "have chosen not to buy enough aircraft for them" be closer to the truth? I mean, what we've sent to Rwanda for them to potentially take 200 migrants could have paid for one or two more F-35s.

 

[Giugiaro]

... give Ukraine the tools it needs to win.

A lot of the reading I've been doing seems to suggest that this should've been the best course of action. The Russian armed forces are pathetic and riddled with corruption and absolute incompetence. Their best equipment is either a show toy or unbelievably poorly maintained. Their comms were initially unencrypted. Their soldiers and pilots used GPS devices and smartphones to know where they were.

Had the US and the European countries gone ahead and properly answered the "I need ammunition, not a ride" appeal from Zelensky, the war would probably be in a much more favorable state for the Ukrainians. And the Russians wouldn't have had time to entrench themselves and activate the "meatgrinder supplier".

Our reluctance is adding to the cost of lives of both Ukrainians and Russians.

Two years of this war have already shown that Putin is immune to whatever happens in Ukraine and within Russia. They live in an alternative reality where every major adds its fair share of embellishment to whatever is happening on the battlefield. The Russian people live under a culture of oppression and are currently living in a situation akin to what preceded the Winter Revolution. Any small victory is elevated as a huge "Russia Strong" victory, and every loss is entirely ignored or twisted into something that lets both the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian State get away with literal murder.

 

[Killingworth]

A lot of the reading I've been doing seems to suggest that this should've been the best course of action. The Russian armed forces are pathetic and riddled with corruption and absolute incompetence. Their best equipment is either a show toy or unbelievably poorly maintained. Their comms were initially unencrypted. Their soldiers and pilots used GPS devices and smartphones to know where they were.

Had the US and the European countries gone ahead and properly answered the "I need ammunition, not a ride" appeal from Zelensky, the war would probably be in a much more favorable state for the Ukrainians. And the Russians wouldn't have had time to entrench themselves and activate the "meatgrinder supplier".

Our reluctance is adding to the cost of lives of both Ukrainians and Russians.

Two years of this war have already shown that Putin is immune to whatever happens in Ukraine and within Russia. They live in an alternative reality where every major adds its fair share of embellishment to whatever is happening on the battlefield. The Russian people live under a culture of oppression and are currently living in a situation akin to what preceded the Winter Revolution. Any small victory is elevated as a huge "Russia Strong" mentality, and every loss is entirely ignored or twisted into something that lets both the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian State get away with literal murder.

However the Russians have shown themselves very good at building very effective static defences similar to those on the western front in WW1. Drones are the relatively inexpensive modern equivalents of tanks and aircraft and their levels of sophistication are advancing very fast - as are counter measures. The key to military resolution may be with them - and that could be either way.

Russian pysche is very different from ours, bred on a tradition of stoic resistance to outside enemies in an often very harsh climate. Millions of deaths and economic slumps have been faced and overcome before. For now the current conflict will be being interpreted the same, not least because that's how Putin's information systems are portraying it.

We must hope that slowly Russian resolve will collapse as more families experience deaths and hardship - to which end it needs to be made very clear that Ukraine and the west want to see a peaceful, disarmed Russia that won't be invading anywhere again. Can I see that happening any time soon? No. Putin and his cronies are afraid that mother Russia will lose control over all it's remaining territory as more republics split away like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and others did. They're determined to avoid that. We need to get the message through that 'Balkanisation' is not such a bad thing. (Oops, looking at Kosovo, Serbia, etc maybe it is! But Balticisation has done well.)

 

[ainsworth74]

A lot of the reading I've been doing seems to suggest that this should've been the best course of action. The Russian armed forces are pathetic and riddled with corruption and absolute incompetence. Their best equipment is either a show toy or unbelievably poorly maintained. Their comms were initially unencrypted. Their soldiers and pilots used GPS devices and smartphones to know where they were.

Had the US and the European countries gone ahead and properly answered the "I need ammunition, not a ride" appeal from Zelensky, the war would probably be in a much more favorable state for the Ukrainians. And the Russians wouldn't have had time to entrench themselves and activate the "meatgrinder supplier".

Our reluctance is adding to the cost of lives of both Ukrainians and Russians.

Two years of this war have already shown that Putin is immune to whatever happens in Ukraine and within Russia. They live in an alternative reality where every major adds its fair share of embellishment to whatever is happening on the battlefield. The Russian people live under a culture of oppression and are currently living in a situation akin to what preceded the Winter Revolution. Any small victory is elevated as a huge "Russia Strong" mentality, and every loss is entirely ignored or twisted into something that lets both the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian State get away with literal murder.

Absolutely agreed!

However the Russians have shown themselves very good at building very effective static defences similar to those on the western front in WW1. Drones are the relatively inexpensive modern equivalents of tanks and aircraft and their levels of sophistication are advancing very fast - as are counter measures. The key to military resolution may be with them - and that could be either way.

They have shown themselves to be far more resilient on the defence than we might have hoped. Surovikin might have been removed from command but his legacy lingers as a lot of the defences that blunted the Ukrainian attempt at a counter offensive this summer started under his watch. We should be grateful that the Russian system is dysfunctional enough that it will remove capable commanders from leadership positions (he lost his command before he got linked with the Wagner mutiny).

But even allowing for that our supply of weapons is just not keeping up with the necessary pace for even defensive operations. Russia has re-established in the past few weeks fire superiority in terms of artillery again meaning that Ukraine is being out shot and is having to husband their ammunition. This is a critical weakness in a war where artillery is dominating and one of the main methods of killing troops, destroying armoured vehicles and stalling advances.

How can we be two years into this war and across the entire continent of Europe we cannot reach a production level of 1m shells per year? It's been two years! I can only conclude that the reality is that the majority of European governments and politicians as I said above are simply determined to pretend that the era of the Peace Dividend it isn't over, or will talk about it being over but do nothing substantive in response, or actively work to undermine the West. Nothing else makes sense. And we are all eventually going to pay a price in blood as a result of this contemptable failing or our leadership. For now it's Ukrainian blood but it won't stay that way.

 

[brad465]

Some good news for Ukraine with the EU finally getting past Orban on agreeing bloc funding:

EU leaders unlock €50bn support package for Ukraine

The agreement came earlier than expected, overcoming previous opposition from Hungary's Viktor Orban.

www.bbc.co.uk

All 27 EU leaders have agreed to a €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) aid package for Ukraine, European Council President Charles Michel said.
"We have a deal," Mr Michel wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
He said that the agreement "locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine".
There had been fears that Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban would block the aid package as he had done already at a European summit last December.
Mr Orban had said he wanted to force a rethink of EU policy towards Ukraine and questioned the idea of committing to fund Ukraine for the next four years.
Diplomatic sources told Reuters that the new deal includes a yearly discussion of the package and the option to review it in two years, "if needed".
Mr Orban had been pushing for a yearly vote on the package, but there were fears this would have left the deal exposed to an annual veto threat from Hungary.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said today was "a good day for Europe".
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had been highly critical of what he called Mr Orban's "strange and egotistic game," posted on X: "Viktor Orban could be 'persuaded'... Let's move on."

 

[najaB]

For a navy with no ships of more, the Ukrainian Navy is doing rather well:

The loss of the guided-missile corvette Ivanovets is a significant one for the Russians because there are only three such corvettes in service in the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Quote: "This is quite a significant loss, given that there are only three such Project 1241.1 corvettes in service in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and the weapons include Moskit-type anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 130 km.

Ukrainian Navy on why sinking of missile-armed corvette Ivanovets is significant loss for Russia

The loss of the guided-missile corvette Ivanovets is a significant one for the Russians because there are only three such corvettes in service in the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[brad465]

I'm sure the so-called anti-war brigade will be outraged at this revelation:

Putin challenger Boris Nadezhdin barred from Russia's election

Russia's election commission has rejected anti-war challenger Boris Nadezhdin as a presidential candidate.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia's election commission has rejected anti-war challenger Boris Nadezhdin as a candidate in next month's presidential vote.
Mr Nadezhdin has been relatively critical of Vladimir Putin's full-scale war in Ukraine and few dissenting voices have been tolerated in Russia.
He had tried to challenge claims by the election commission that more than 15% of the signatures he submitted with his application were flawed.
But the commission rejected his bid.
Refusing to give up, Mr Nadezhdin said on social media that he would challenge the decision in Russia's Supreme Court.
"I collected more than 200,000 signatures across Russia. We conducted the collection openly and honestly."
The Central Election Commission said that more than 9,000 signatures submitted by Mr Nadezhdin were invalid.
That left 95,587 names, meaning he was just short of the 100,000 required signatures to register as a candidate, commission member Andrei Shutov said.
Russia's presidential election is due to take place from 15-17 March, although the result is not in doubt as only candidates approved by the Kremlin are running.
A final decision on who can take part in the election will come on Saturday.

 

[DustyBin]

I'm sure the so-called anti-war brigade will be outraged at this revelation:

Putin challenger Boris Nadezhdin barred from Russia's election

Russia's election commission has rejected anti-war challenger Boris Nadezhdin as a presidential candidate.

www.bbc.co.uk

My understanding (if I'm thinking of the right person) is that he's controlled opposition who's actually gone "rogue". I'd be staying away from windows, door handles, and hot beverages if I were him regardless!

Edit: As well as private jets of course....

 

[najaB]

My understanding (if I'm thinking of the right person) is that he's controlled opposition who's actually gone "rogue". I'd be staying away from windows, door handles, and hot beverages if I were him regardless!

Edit: As well as private jets of course....

Cars can also be dangerous. Smoking around the petrol tank and all that.

 

[Russel]

I'm sure the so-called anti-war brigade will be outraged at this revelation:

Putin challenger Boris Nadezhdin barred from Russia's election

Russia's election commission has rejected anti-war challenger Boris Nadezhdin as a presidential candidate.

www.bbc.co.uk

This is shocking, who'd have guessed this would happen.

Honestly, it's clear the only way this will now end is around the negotiating table...

 

[Trackman]

This is shocking, who'd have guessed this would happen.

I think he needed 100,000 signatures, but went for 105,000 to be safe .. well, that didnt work.
TBH, if he was a candidate, they would be shenanigans during the vote count.

 

[ainsworth74]

Honestly, it's clear the only way this will now end is around the negotiating table...

Or Russia could withdraw their forces from Ukraine. That would end it immediately.

 

[Russel]

Or Russia could withdraw their forces from Ukraine. That would end it immediately.

Yes they could, but in reality, they won't without Putin securing something he could sell as a victory to his people first.

The uncomfortable truth is it's either negotiation or whoever runs out of bullets first.

 

[357]

Honestly, it's clear the only way this will now end is around the negotiating table...

Yes they could, but in reality, they won't without Putin securing something he could sell as a victory to his people first.

The uncomfortable truth is it's either negotiation or whoever runs out of bullets first.

As much as I hate to admit it, this is also the feeling on the ground in Kyiv.

 

[Annetts key]

Russia is wreaking it's military (very large losses of army equipment, loss of about 20% of the ships of the Black Sea fleet, lots of fixed wing and helicopters destroyed or damaged beyond repair, and of course over 380000 personal killed), wreaking it's economy, wreaked it's arms export industry, and will continue to suffer for many, many years from the damage to it's young population demographic (many left the country, likely never to return plus all those young that have been killed). Russia already had a problem in this area.

There is also an increased possibility that some parts of the republic may break away.

The U.S.A. is only deadlocked due to Trump controlling the speaker of the house of representatives and some of the republican party. The E.U. has sorted out it's current problem with funding Ukraine. And the U.K., France, Germany and many other countries are still providing both money and military equipment for Ukraine.

Russia currently is only advancing very painfully slowly in a couple of places even though they are literary throwing military equipment and men at trying to advance. How long they can continue to do this is unknown. But at some point, they will become less and less effective, as they increasing run low on equipment and men who have any experience. Hence, there will be a point where Russia is unable to move forward at all. And then the Ukrainian forces may be able to take advantage and force the Russians to withdraw to shorten their lines or it may go a heck of a lot worse for them.

I don't expect any major changes in the next six months, maybe even a year. Trying to predict anything else further in the future is rather difficult. But I just don't see Ukraine giving up. Not while they have enough support to continue to harass the Russian forces and continue to damage and destroy Russian oil facilities.

 

[najaB]

I don't expect any major changes in the next six months, maybe even a year. Trying to predict anything else further in the future is rather difficult. But I just don't see Ukraine giving up. Not while they have enough support to continue to harass the Russian forces and continue to damage and destroy Russian oil facilities.

And, as has been noted multiple times in this thread and elsewhere, from a coldly, calculating viewpoint it's better for us that the Ukrainians do the fighting and dying now than us doing it in five or ten years time.

 

[Killingworth]

And, as has been noted multiple times in this thread and elsewhere, from a coldly, calculating viewpoint it's better for us that the Ukrainians do the fighting and dying now than us doing it in five or ten years time.

Ordinary Ukrainian citizens may have very mixed views about how they've been caught in the mincer. History's verdict will almost certainly reflect badly on all parties. It's a long way from being over and the longer it gies on the stronger Putin and China in particular will become.

Trump/Biden led US policy adds unfathomable dimensions of potential complexity to an already perilous situation.

 

[jon0844]

The Tucker Carlson interview has really kicked off the right in the USA wanting all support for Ukraine to end, suggesting Putin has now given the hard truth.

 

[Yew]

It's a long way from being over and the longer it gies on the stronger Putin and China in particular will become.

How do you figure that? War depletes ammunition and material reserves, and gets soldiers killed.

 

[najaB]

Ordinary Ukrainian citizens may have very mixed views about how they've been caught in the mincer. History's verdict will almost certainly reflect badly on all parties.

True, and my heart bleeds for the millions of civilians caught up in the middle of things. But I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of them would rather suffer depravation as Ukrainians than live in a false peace as Russian serfs.

If history looks back at the West with disdain, it will only be because we didn't provide enough assistance soon enough.

It's a long way from being over and the longer it gies on the stronger Putin and China in particular will become.

I'm not sure that is true. The myth of the unstoppable Red Army has been completely shattered. Remember this time in 2022 when everyone expected Kyiv to fall in three days maximum? Since then the Russians have lost over a third of a million soldiers, thousands of tanks and armoured vehicles, hundreds of aircraft and a significant proportion of the Black Sea Fleet (including its flagship).

In what way are they stronger now than they were on February 23rd 2022?

 

[357]

Remember this time in 2022 when everyone expected Kyiv to fall in three days maximum

Indeed. My Ukrainian family and friends like to say "All these experts in the West telling us how to fight russia, if we listened to them in 2022 we would no longer exist."

 

[DustyBin]

The Tucker Carlson interview has really kicked off the right in the USA wanting all support for Ukraine to end, suggesting Putin has now given the hard truth.

Which is?

"Putin" and "truth" have a somewhat distant relationship....

True, and my heart bleeds for the millions of civilians caught up in the middle of things. But I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of them would rather suffer depravation as Ukrainians than live in a false peace as Russian serfs.

It's a question for the Ukrainians, although I suspect you're probably correct.

If history looks back at the West with disdain, it will only be because we didn't provide enough assistance soon enough.

Possibly, although I'm honestly not sure. I think the initial response was as firm as it was ever going to be under the circumstances, and don't forget the large amount of weaponry Ukraine received prior to the invasion which proved decisive early on. Obviously there was considerable disparity in terms of the support offered by different countries however....

If anything it's here and now where the West is letting itself (and Ukraine obviously) down in my opinion.

I'm not sure that is true. The myth of the unstoppable Red Army has been completely shattered. Remember this time in 2022 when everyone expected Kyiv to fall in three days maximum? Since then the Russians have lost over a third of a million soldiers, thousands of tanks and armoured vehicles, hundreds of aircraft and a significant proportion of the Black Sea Fleet (including its flagship).

In what way are they stronger now than they were on February 23rd 2022?

They're not and I honestly don't see how anyone can spin it that way. They're militarily, economically, and politically diminished; it's been a complete disaster for them.

 

[Annetts key]

The Tucker Carlson interview has really kicked off the right in the USA wanting all support for Ukraine to end, suggesting Putin has now given the hard truth.

That was not an open interview. That was an exercise in propaganda. Do you really think Tucker Carlson is a respectable journalist? He has been sacked from countless TV stations/shows and has admitted on camera that he supports Russia.

Further, Tucker Carlson said that no other western journalist has interviewed Putin. However Steve Rosenberg has said that many have asked including himself. The Kremlin always says no to actual western journalists. Why do you think that is?

And the Kremlin very carefully controls all interactions between Putin and people such as Tucker Carlson. You can guarantee that the video was vetted and edited by the Kremlin before it was allowed to be released.

As for the right in the USA, Trump and his MAGA followers were already wanting to reduce support for Ukraine. Trump is pulling as many strings as he can to control republican house of representatives (including the speaker of the house, puppet Mike Johnson) and many republicans in the senate. So much so, that the senate has killed off the republicans own bill!

Putin likely agreed to the "interview" with Tucker Carlson in the hope that it would result in the MAGA republicans increasingly calling for cutting U.S.A. support for Ukraine.

Let me be crystal clear. As far as democratic countries are concerned, the best thing to do, is to never, ever give Putin what he wants.

The only way to have a safer world for the future, is for Russia to be defeated. That will also make other countries who have ideas on using military force to invade their neighbour think twice.

In what way are they stronger now than they were on February 23rd 2022?

The Ukrainians are suffering so much because our western political leaders were far too slow in acting to help Ukraine. And we in the west had ran down our own military forces too much, did not have a plan for what to do if a large war broke out. And we have also found out that the companies that produce munitions could not ramp up production very quickly.

There is absolutely no doubt that the Russian military is now far weaker than it was before this war started. Plus, the Russian military equipment is nowhere near as good as was thought. And Russian tactics don't appear to have evolved much from WWII. After this war ends (assuming the west continues to support Ukraine), Russia will be licking it wounds for years before they even think about trying to attack a NATO country.

China is watching this war very carefully. It will also be taking note on how badly the Russian military is performing. I honestly think that this war is putting China off taking any military action that would involve a western country. The only action they may take, would be against the part of Russia that once was part of China.

Even before 2022, China did not have a chance of invading Taiwan. Nothing has changed in that respect.

 

[jon0844]

I don't need to be told the Putin interview was propaganda. Any sane person knows this, but it's being used hard to justify our need to back Russia, and given so many bots are meant to be operated from Russia, it's no surprise that in some threads over 50% of posts are pro Putin and telling Americans that the USA is the corrupt country, and Ukraine is evil etc.

They believe Tucker just booked a holiday in Russia and while there thought he'd call up Putin for a chat, and then next minute he says yes.

Putin clearly organised the interview and Tucker jumped at the chance, already being a bit of a hero on Russia Today.

I haven't watched it all, but there was one bit that caught Tucker off guard when he told him about his past. A nice way to remind Tucker that Putin knows everything about him.

You know, just in case one day he gets a conscience and backtracks from supporting a rather crazed lunatic.

Remember, behind closed doors, Tucker hated Trump and couldn't wait for him to be gone. I wonder what Tucker thinks about Putin?

 

[brad465]

Russia's best attribute is that it can very easily manipulate those who hate the US and its behaviour on the world stage into somehow thinking Russia is their friend, just because they're enemies, when in reality Russia is an even more extreme version of what the US has been doing. It's common among the far left and far right in the US and other Western nations, but we're also seeing it in parts of Africa, where the likes of the French are being shunned for Russian mercenaries, as if they are suddenly going to be better.

If you really don't like the US's behaviour, go about changing it in the best way possible from an independent point of view, don't side with another regime who will easily be at best as worse, just because they hate the status quo too.

 

[jon0844]

The right wing in the USA love Putin and think they need a leader like him to take care of those with other opinions, and definitely being anti immigrant, black, LGBT etc.

The fact Russia is supposedly communist (it isn't) and they think the Democrats are communists and evil makes it even more illogical - but they're willing to bend however necessary to accept a strong leader/dictator, and really do think Trump is the next best thing.

 

[Giugiaro]

TBH, if he was a candidate, they would be shenanigans during the vote count.

Yes, like getting someone who looks the same and has a pretty similar name, and with enough signatures to somehow run for president.
Or have voting stations be run by public staff whose job status is dependent on the goodwill of the state.
Or... I don't know... deploy electronic voting machines made by Russian enterprises with close connections to the Kremlin?

But... I mean, they say that prevention is the best medicine, right? Why go through all that when you can find one of a hundred different excuses to tell the candidate to go away?

 

[edwin_m]

The right wing in the USA love Putin and think they need a leader like him to take care of those with other opinions, and definitely being anti immigrant, black, LGBT etc.

The fact Russia is supposedly communist (it isn't) and they think the Democrats are communists and evil makes it even more illogical - but they're willing to bend however necessary to accept a strong leader/dictator, and really do think Trump is the next best thing.

It isn't even supposedly communist, the Communist party is only the second largest party. Though in practice the current system is arguably at least as bad as in the Soviet days, unless you're an oligarch and stay on the right side of Putin.

 

[DustyBin]

There are unconfirmed reports on a number of news sites that another Ropucha-class landing ship has been severely damaged or destroyed.