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Russia invades Ukraine

Killingworth

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Indeed though, of course, Russia still has a pool of manpower to call upon in a wider mobilisation. The regime just dare not call upon it for fear of destabilising their position...
The corollary is that Ukraine is suffering very similar manpower shortages. Both sides are suffering war fatigue. Ukraine's democracy may prove the more vulnerable without some tangible positive results. Russian concentration on energy and communications over the coming winter could be their way to hit civilian morale.
 
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najaB

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The corollary is that Ukraine is suffering very similar manpower shortages. Both sides are suffering war fatigue.
The difference is that generally speaking, Ukraine hasn't been using meat-grinder tactics which means that they've preserved a much higher percentage of their veterans. I'd wager that the average Ukrainian front-line soldier is worth two or three Russians simply because they know what they're doing compared to someone who's received a week's 'training' before being thrown into the fight.
 

wilbers

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Well, this happened. "Russia fines Google more money than there is in entire world"

A Russian court has fined Google two undecillion roubles - a two followed by 36 zeroes - for restricting Russian state media channels on YouTube.

In dollar terms that means the tech giant has been told to pay $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
 

Ivor

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Took a long time, but news coming in that Biden is now authorising long range missiles to be fired into Russia.
Following Putin getting North Korea involved & the huge strikes across Ukraine last night it couldn’t go on with Putin slaughtering non stop.

Will our own Government give the green light now & approve the use of long range weapons?
 

brad465

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Following Putin getting North Korea involved & the huge strikes across Ukraine last night it couldn’t go on with Putin slaughtering non stop.

Will our own Government give the green light now & approve the use of long range weapons?
There are some outlets claiming the UK and France now have as well, however none of the mainstream outlets have yet. What will also be interesting is Scholz's reaction in Germany: if everyone else says yes but not him, then he will look like an outlier and even more spineless than he has so far. Merz, the opposition leader and looking likely to be Chancellor next year, is more hawkish than Scholz on this issue.
 

Ivor

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There are some outlets claiming the UK and France now have as well, however none of the mainstream outlets have yet. What will also be interesting is Scholz's reaction in Germany: if everyone else says yes but not him, then he will look like an outlier and even more spineless than he has so far. Merz, the opposition leader and looking likely to be Chancellor next year, is more hawkish than Scholz on this issue.
That will be interesting to see when/if confirmed re UK/France.

Good point re Scholz.

The Lithuanian President has reacted positively as he quite rightly would. Putin will be throwing his toys out of his pram tonight.
 
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43096

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The Lithuanian President has reacted positively as he quite rightly would. Putin will be throwing his toys out of his pram tonight.
Putin was the one who escalated it by getting other countries' troops involved. He can't really complain if Ukraine are allowed to strike into Russia with kit provided by other countries!
 

najaB

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How has the Kremlin reacted to this?
While they're not afraid of hypocrisy, it would be a bit much even for them to complain loudly about Western-made weapons being used to attack targets in Russia while there are Chinese and North Koreans fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian troops.
 

edwin_m

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While they're not afraid of hypocrisy, it would be a bit much even for them to complain loudly about Western-made weapons being used to attack targets in Russia while there are Chinese and North Koreans fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian troops.
Chinese? Haven't seen anything on that...

Ukraine using Wester weapons isn't much different to Russia using North Korean weapons.
 

brad465

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Financial Times comments full of pro Ruski stuff today

@Broucek I also subscribe and I must say it's always baffled me how they can have so many posters with those views for what is a very expensive subscription, if there are trolls/bots. The moderation also seems to be rather weak for this as well if they are genuine trolls/bots.
 

gg1

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@Broucek I also subscribe and I must say it's always baffled me how they can have so many posters with those views for what is a very expensive subscription, if there are trolls/bots. The moderation also seems to be rather weak for this as well if they are genuine trolls/bots.
Russia probably sees the cost of a few dozen FT subscriptions as money well spent if they think there's a chance it will sway public opinion here.
 

Russel

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Strange and concerning that a month or two ago, long range missile use against Russia was declined by Biden due to the risk of escalation... now it's fine?

What changed?
 

najaB

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Chinese? Haven't seen anything on that.
I saw a headline earlier today indicating that there may be Chinese 'mercenaries' in Russia/Ukraine. I'll have a hunt and see if I can find it again.
Strange and concerning that a month or two ago, long range missile use against Russia was declined by Biden due to the risk of escalation... now it's fine?

What changed?
North Korean troops in Ukraine and a need to do as much damage as possible to Russia in the next month and a half.
 

Russel

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North Korean troops in Ukraine and a need to do as much damage as possible to Russia in the next month and a half.

Didn't Putin suggest the use of long range missiles would make the US/UK directly involved in this conflict?

Is that no longer the case, or are we to just assume that every time he opens his mouth, he's bluffing... until he isn't.
 

edwin_m

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Strange and concerning that a month or two ago, long range missile use against Russia was declined by Biden due to the risk of escalation... now it's fine?

What changed?

I saw a headline earlier today indicating that there may be Chinese 'mercenaries' in Russia/Ukraine. I'll have a hunt and see if I can find it again.

North Korean troops in Ukraine and a need to do as much damage as possible to Russia in the next month and a half.
Also Putin knows if he escalates now he risks alienating Trump.
 

edwin_m

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A gamble that raises the question of where Trump's loyalties - or debts - lie.
Can't help thinking that with what we already know about Trump, Putin releasing whatever "kompromat" he might have isn't going to make much difference. And Trump seems to be the expert at not paying his debts.
 

ainsworth74

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Can't help thinking that with what we already know about Trump, Putin releasing whatever "kompromat" he might have isn't going to make much difference.
No that's the irony really isn't it? The Russians probably do have some sort of "kompromat" on Trump, and I reckon probably a few other Republicans, but Trump's base is now so locked in to him I don't think there really is anything they could release that would make a difference.
 

brad465

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Ukraine certainly not hanging around now:


Russia has said Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles into the country for the first time on Tuesday.
Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) in a strike on Russia's Bryansk region this morning, the ministry of defence in Moscow said.
Five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with its fragments causing a fire at a military facility in the region, it said in a statement.
Use of the US missiles was also reported in Ukrainian media, but Ukraine has not yet commented.
In a statement, Russia’s defence ministry said the strike was launched at 03:25 (00:25 GMT).
A fire caused by fallen debris from one of the missiles was quickly extinguished and there were no casualties, it said.
Ukraine’s military earlier confirmed that it had struck an ammunition warehouse in the Russian region of Bryansk, but it did not specify whether Atacms were used.
It said the attack, on a depot around 100km from the border near the town of Karachev, caused 12 secondary explosions.
Ukrainian media, citing a military source, reported that the US missiles had been used.
 

adc82140

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I suspect ATACMS weren't used, but it suits the Russian narrative to say they were.

After all they've published their updated nuclear doctrine today, which incidentally is full of coulds, mights, and reserve the right tos.

They also say they shot down 5 of the 6 missiles, which if they were really ATACMS would be quite a feat. I reckon they were domestically built Ukrainian drones.

Edit- they were ATACMS, so I suspect they weren't all shot down.
 
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Halwynd

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I really hope there's some backchannel work going on at the moment and that we're not sleepwalking into a catastrophe.
 

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