Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

Remember that Ukraine has already experienced a lack of U.S.A. supplies, back when Trump made sure that the speaker of the house would not table the vote for additional funding.

I think Ukraine had worked out that once Trump took office, that there would very likely be problems ahead.

If you look at the details of many of the recent battles, Ukraine is using drones far more than even last year. And this month the Russian advances, where and if they occur, are getting painfully slower. In some places, Ukrainian forces are retaking some of the lost ground. Yes, these are only small moves, but it does show that Ukraine is not giving up.

The other thing to think about, is that the Ukrainian parliament also has a role in any so called agreement, be that an agreement on the mineral resources or on a peace treaty. It’s not just Zelensky that has to agree.

It would not surprise me if Ukraine told Trump where to shove it. That then gives Trump a dilemma. How can he look strong and save face?

Lend-Lease

All fine and dandy, but if the U.S.A. provides existing equipment and or ammunition from current “operational” stocks, where is the money and authorisation for the U.S.A. government to buy new to replace these stocks?

 

[brad465]

It would not surprise me if Ukraine told Trump where to shove it. That then gives Trump a dilemma. How can he look strong and save face?

I don't think Trump would be able to shove it there because the heads of many tech bros are in the way.

 

[70014IronDuke]

It's a very expensive way to destroy targets, particularly if they get shot down by some relatively affordable air-defence missiles.

Indeed. In WW2, the V1 was a much more effective weapon as an explosive device, with far more blast. It also tied up air-defence assets. The V2 buried itself in the ground - but was a far better PR weapon that tickled Hitler's fancy.

We digress, but "almost impossible" was only partly to do with difficulty - the historical record is pretty clear (going back to Brickhill in "The Dambusters") that Harris didn't really care about precision bombing, and the focus of both RAF Bomber Command and USAAF was on area bombing, with civilians treated as a direct target.

It is not a question of Harris not caring. Had precision boming worked, I'm sure he would have utilised it (using far fewer planes and losing far fewer crews) but tests carried out in 41-42 revealed "precision bombing" to be a farce. Churchill wanted to hit back at Germany, and the only way, inefficient as it was, was to mount area bombing raids. If you couldn't hit the factories, at least hit the homes that housed the workers and the railways that shifted the goods.

If nothing else, they would have had no idea of the wind strength and direction at all altitudes from the plane down to the ground, which could have had a significant effect on the landing even if the aim was theoretically perfect.

I believe the Americans would have it that the miraculous Norden site actually accounted for wind speeds and directions on the bombs' fall.

Yeah, I don't believe it either, but that's what they said. I think it has to be remembered the USAAF made a specifically decided, against RAF advice, to bomb in daylight, so they needed some sort of argument to justify their horrendous losses in 43-44.

I'll see your conspiracy and raise you as follows: a former Soviet intelligence officer now living in Kazakhstan has suggested that at one time the KGB was actively recruiting US business people and that a young Donald Trump was one such target with codename Krasnov. To be taken with a rock sized pinch of salt I think! If it was actually true it might explain some things but I suspect it's someone seeking publicity.

I don't see that needing more than a simple grain of salt. His first wife was Czech, after all. Honey trap, anyone? Age old methind, but they still use it.

 

[Bald Rick]

I know that there was a lot of press around the Norden bombsight - eg. the claim that they could put a bomb into a pickle barrel from 20,000ft and the great deal of secrecy surrounding them (carried to the plane under cover before each flight), but all of it was hype for propaganda purposes.

If nothing else, they would have had no idea of the wind strength and direction at all altitudes from the plane down to the ground, which could have had a significant effect on the landing even if the aim was theoretically perfect.

I believe the Americans would have it that the miraculous Norden site actually accounted for wind speeds and directions on the bombs' fall.

Yeah, I don't believe it either, but that's what they said. I think it has to be remembered the USAAF made a specifically decided, against RAF advice, to bomb in daylight, so they needed some sort of argument to justify their horrendous losses in 43-44.

Off topic I know, but the Norden Bombsight was a close relative of the SABS used by 617 squadron, and they did manage to lob two “Tallboys” right on to the Tirpitz (beam of 36 metres) in Tromsø fjord from 15000ft. That‘s pretty decent!

 

[brad465]

If anyone needs a bit of cheering up on this issue:

x.com

x.com

The joke from Ukrainian Twitter — Trump may want to nuke us after Zelensky’s press conference, so thank god they fired all the people who know where the launch codes are.

 

[Pete_uk]

Yes!

I think Ukraine knows how positive a bad deal would be for Russia and so are holding out.
Seems like Europe is getting it backside into gear finally.

It's been 3 years since the war started.

 

[Howardh]

I read that Zelenskyy will meet Trump to sign a deal to allow USA to pilfer Ukrainian raw metals worth £bb's. If Putin wants those raw minerals for himself, then does Trump defend "his" goodies, and does that lead to the war continuing but this time USA v Russia on the ground?

Trump can't have anything that's under Russian control, unless he does a deal with Putin and leaves Ukraine out of it?

I'm really baffled. And worried sick.

 

[Giugiaro]

Putin has also offered an exclusive mineral contract for rare earth elements, oil, and gas in Russian-controlled Ukranian territories with Donald Trump.

Putin offers Russian and Ukrainian rare minerals to US

 

[Acey]

So the vultures of the East and West are devouring the carcass of Ukraine while the Jackals of Europe are yapping !

 

[87electric]

So the vultures of the East and West are devouring the carcass of Ukraine while the Jackals of Europe are yapping !

Interesting to see how relevant the Sept 2022 agreements between Zelensky and Larry Fink (Blackrock) are now. Of course not forgetting American investors JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs etc... who had plans to carve up Ukraine for their interests.

 

[Gostav]

So the vultures of the East and West are devouring the carcass of Ukraine while the Jackals of Europe are yapping !

Obviously, the bargaining chips at the negotiating table depend on the military and industrial strength.

Although the Russians did not do well enough, the complete destruction of Russian industry and the complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment that many Western observers expected over past three years did not occur.

 

[SargeNpton]

Obviously, the bargaining chips at the negotiating table depend on the military and industrial strength.

Although the Russians did not do well enough, the complete destruction of Russian industry and the complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment that many Western observers expected over past three years did not occur.

One article in the newspapers this week posited that Russia's economy will collapse completely if the war drags on for another 6-12 months. May be that Ukraine is hoping to hold the Russian forces at bay long enough for that crash to happen, after which it can then reclaim most, if not all, of its territory.

 

[Giugiaro]

Although the Russians did not do well enough, the complete destruction of Russian industry and the complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment that many Western observers expected over past three years did not occur.

Yet they are deploying donkeys to the battlefield.

 

[Annetts key]

Obviously, the bargaining chips at the negotiating table depend on the military and industrial strength.

Although the Russians did not do well enough, the complete destruction of Russian industry and the complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment that many Western observers expected over past three years did not occur.

Do you really think Ukraine would just give in if the support from the U.S.A. ended? The answer is no. And given that the Russians advance has slowed to barely a crawl (an occasional tree line, field or hamlet) and they still haven’t kicked Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast, they clearly are having difficulties.

Indeed, earlier this year on Russian TV one commentator accidentality said that at the current rate of advance (at that time) it would take around 100 years for Russia to capture the whole of the country. Western estimates are a slightly different, saying about 83 years (source).

Unless Russia is completely bonkers, they will never go as far as getting to the stage of having a complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment. You are misrepresenting what people have said. And who said that there would be a complete destruction of Russian industry? That's just twaddle.

However, Russia has lost huge numbers of main battle tanks, lost huge numbers of IFV and APCs, lost huge numbers of artillery systems etc. Why else would they now be using equipment that dates back to the 1950s?

They are clearly not yet done. But they cannot continue at the current rate of losses for years and years.

And in the past seven days, Ukraine has been able to make some small scale counter attacks and has taken ground from the Russians in some places.

And the thing with wars, is that a front line can appear strong until it collapses, then you may get a rout. It's impossible to know how likely this is for either side. But I would say that Russia is struggling more than Ukraine. Keeping in mind that as the defender, sometimes Ukraine trades land for tactical reasons.

 

[brad465]

And the thing with wars, is that a front line can appear strong until it collapses, then you may get a rout. It's impossible to know how likely this is for either side. But I would say that Russia is struggling more than Ukraine. Keeping in mind that as the defender, sometimes Ukraine trades land for tactical reasons.

The best recent example of this is Syria: the battle lines were frozen for 4 years or so until November 2024, when rebels made a new offensive and the entire Syrian Government front collapsed and just let the rebels succeed.

 

[DustyBin]

Do you really think Ukraine would just give in if the support from the U.S.A. ended? The answer is no. And given that the Russians advance has slowed to barely a crawl (an occasional tree line, field or hamlet) and they still haven’t kicked Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast, they clearly are having difficulties.

Indeed, earlier this year on Russian TV one commentator accidentality said that at the current rate of advance (at that time) it would take around 100 years for Russia to capture the whole of the country. Western estimates are a slightly different, saying about 83 years (source).

Unless Russia is completely bonkers, they will never go as far as getting to the stage of having a complete loss of heavy weapons and equipment. You are misrepresenting what people have said. And who said that there would be a complete destruction of Russian industry? That's just twaddle.

However, Russia has lost huge numbers of main battle tanks, lost huge numbers of IFV and APCs, lost huge numbers of artillery systems etc. Why else would they now be using equipment that dates back to the 1950s?

They are clearly not yet done. But they cannot continue at the current rate of losses for years and years.

And in the past seven days, Ukraine has been able to make some small scale counter attacks and has taken ground from the Russians in some places.

And the thing with wars, is that a front line can appear strong until it collapses, then you may get a rout. It's impossible to know how likely this is for either side. But I would say that Russia is struggling more than Ukraine. Keeping in mind that as the defender, sometimes Ukraine trades land for tactical reasons.

A pretty good summary really.

The Russians aren’t done but the clock is ticking, and the longer the clock ticks the more chance there is of something “unexpected” happening either on the front line or within Russia itself. I think this is why the Ukrainians will keep going for as long as they can.

The Ukrainians obviously have their own problems which shouldn’t be overlooked, but they’re not the ones prosecuting a war of choice.

 

[GusB]

Well, the meeting at the White House is going well...

I'm listening to the exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance on the radio right now and it's not pleasant to listen to. Live video coverage is available here:

Trump accuses Zelenskyy of ‘gambling with world war three’ during White House meeting – Europe live

US president says he is ‘for both Ukraine and Russia’ and tells Zelesnkyy he has ‘to be grateful’

www.theguardian.com

Trump, Zelenskyy and Vance clash over diplomacy with Putin​

At one point in their meeting, JD Vance said the negotiations were needed as “we tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of thumping our chest and pretending that the President of the United States’s words mattered more than the President of the United States’s actions.”

“What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing,” he insisted.

But Zelenskyy wasn’t pleased with that, responding that Putin repeatedly broke previous arrangements agreed with other countries. “So, what kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?”

This caused Vance to explode, accusing Zelenskyy of being “disrespectful” and organising “propaganda tours.”

When he tries to make his argument, Trump intervenes and tells him:

Don’t tell us what we’re gonna feel. You’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel … You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position … You don’t have the cards right now with us.
You are gambling with the lives of millions, you are gambling with World War Three. And what you are doing is very disrespectful to this country.

After JD Vance accusses him for not thanking for the support – despite repeated thanks from Zelenskyy – they get into another heated exchange with Trump raising voice, leading Zelenskyy to wearily start the next sentence saying:

Do you think that if you will speak loudly…

 

[YorkshireBear]

Not sure if Zelensky should have kept a cooler head (he shouldn't have to of course) because this is going to fall straight into the Trump/Vance MAGA playbook.

 

[AlterEgo]

Ukraine has conclusively lost the war and we can confirm that today with Zelensky being packed away with his tail between his legs having been shouted down. No historian will consider it anything but a Ukrainian loss, I feel.

Russia and the USA will gather up the spoils, Ukraine won't get security guarantees but will have to send its minerals to the USA. The country has been entirely cuckolded and it's quite depressing.

 

[DustyBin]

Ukraine has conclusively lost the war and we can confirm that today with Zelensky being packed away with his tail between his legs having been shouted down. No historian will consider it anything but a Ukrainian loss, I feel.

Russia and the USA will gather up the spoils, Ukraine won't get security guarantees but will have to send its minerals to the USA. The country has been entirely cuckolded and it's quite depressing.

For what it’s worth I don’t think it’s quite a done deal… But yes I agree; there’s no way of looking at todays developments positively.

 

[Killingworth]

Ukraine has conclusively lost the war and we can confirm that today with Zelensky being packed away with his tail between his legs having been shouted down. No historian will consider it anything but a Ukrainian loss, I feel.

Russia and the USA will gather up the spoils, Ukraine won't get security guarantees but will have to send its minerals to the USA. The country has been entirely cuckolded and it's quite depressing.

Incredibly depressing. Trump is unable to see how Zelensky had to have some form of words to take home giving a guarantee that Russia, not just Putin, would not return for a further bite in a year, 2 years, 5 or 10. Because past form says they will.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Ukraine has conclusively lost the war and we can confirm that today with Zelensky being packed away with his tail between his legs having been shouted down. No historian will consider it anything but a Ukrainian loss, I feel.

Russia and the USA will gather up the spoils, Ukraine won't get security guarantees but will have to send its minerals to the USA. The country has been entirely cuckolded and it's quite depressing.

Conclusively lost? No, at least not yet. It will depend on whether Russia really can continue to sustain its losses and how long before Ukraine runs out of foreign supplied military aid. The writing may be on the wall but I don't get the impression that the majority of Ukrainians are ready to become Russian puppets.

 

[AlterEgo]

Conclusively lost? No, at least not yet. It will depend on whether Russia really can continue to sustain its losses and how long before Ukraine runs out of foreign supplied military aid. The writing may be on the wall but I don't get the impression that the majority of Ukrainians are ready to become Russian puppets.

That's cope. Ukraine is on the ropes diplomatically and there is no will to continue the war. It is at an end now, and the spoils are being decided.

 

[Yew]

there is no will to continue the war.

Could you provide some evidence for that please?

 

[DanNCL]

That was bad even by Trump standards. This has reinforced what I think we already knew, that the US cannot be relied upon as an ally for as long as Trump is in the White House, and that the UK and EU are going to have to step up to support Ukraine without the US.

I think it's reasonable to assume with Zelensky leaving early after that the minerals deal wasn't signed.

there is no will to continue the war

In Russia maybe. The majority of Ukrainians want to fight until they win, you clearly know nothing about this situation if you seriously think the Ukrainian people are ready to give up now.

 

[Ivor]

Ukraine has conclusively lost the war and we can confirm that today with Zelensky being packed away with his tail between his legs having been shouted down. No historian will consider it anything but a Ukrainian loss, I feel.

Russia and the USA will gather up the spoils, Ukraine won't get security guarantees but will have to send its minerals to the USA. The country has been entirely cuckolded and it's quite depressing.

Yes totally depressing, Vance & Trump game plan was to obviously attack from kick off.

I’ve never seen such an unprofessional political meeting, no surprise with Trump where you can see him playing to the cameras, it was disgraceful.

Next he will putting out another video this time of him & Putin lying on loungers around the roof top pool of The Trump Tower Hotel Kiev swigging down the vodka with Lavrov putting plans in place to invade Latvia, Estonia et al.

 

[AlterEgo]

Could you provide some evidence for that please?

Morale is very low in Ukraine and more people are now fixated on the security guarantee, having abandoned the idea of ever recovering the territory lost. Essentially, the people are at a stage where they'd like the war to finish and be concluded, rather than grinding on for more years.

This has been the case since Trump won the election and it became clear the US' priorities would change and a carve up would be likely. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...er-more-than-1-000-days-of-war_6736769_4.html

That's why the Ukrainian President is at the stage of signing a huge minerals deal which is not favourable to him, and hasn't even been at the negotiating table half the time because he's been excluded. If there was will to continue the war, he'd be cracking on with it and not entering into negotiations which approach the humiliation of his country.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Yes totally depressing, Vance & Trump game plan was to obviously attack from kick off.

I’ve never seen such an unprofessional political meeting, no surprise with Trump where you can see him playing to the cameras, it was disgraceful.

Next he will putting out another video this time of him & Putin lying on loungers around the roof top pool of The Trump Tower Hotel Kiev swigging down the vodka with Lavrov putting plans in place to invade Latvia, Estonia et al.

Having looking back I am absolutely certain that was a trap laid for him.

I don't think he stood a chance.

 

[AlterEgo]

The majority of Ukrainians want to fight until they win, you clearly know nothing about this situation if you seriously think the Ukrainian people are ready to give up now.

More than half want the war done quickly, and a minority wanted Ukraine to "fight until they win": https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

You can expect these trends to have accelerated since the inauguration and recent events. The war will be over quite soon and not necessarily to Ukraine's advantage to coin a phrase.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Zelensky is still planning on doing a fox news interview.

Can't help but think he will be similarly shouted down there to further confirm his humiliation in the eyes of that sect of the USA.

I have to feel for the man, as a person, as a human being. He just got bullied Infront of the whole world.