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Russia invades Ukraine

Grimsby town

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No two situations are ever the same. In WW1 both Russia and Germany effectively gave up and went home. After tonight's performance the solidarity of most of Europe with Ukraine might just get through to ordinary Russians who might throw down their arms and walk home. Wishful thinking, perhaps. If Ukraine is standing up to Trump as well as Putin the game's up. But do they see that, yet?
The problem for Ukraine is existential. If they give up then there'll essentially cease to exist as a state. What guarantees do they have that Russia won't commit similar crimes to Bucha on a much wider scale?
 
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brad465

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Hmm, where is he at the moment, it's entirely possible that he's on a plane, or working to do more impactful things than tweet?
I think Starmer may well be having some very, very serious meetings right now with some of the very best defence minds in the country. This is not just "get stuffed, Trump", but a serious question about whether the UK can actually afford to rely on America. At this precise moment, if I were Starmer, I'd be calling Macron and asking him for a very urgent chat about the possibility of using French nuclear weapons technology in the Trident replacement, with a plan to develop (in the medium term) an independent launch platform, perhaps in cooperation with Poland through a nuclear-sharing deal.

Expensive? Very. But cheaper than relying on America, who may well sabotage our nuclear launch platform in a fit of rage.
Fair enough, we will see what happens.

An image that's been doing the rounds is Marco Rubio's body language during that heated meeting. He might have publicly supported Trump, but it was clear in his conscience he was not comfortable with what he saw (putting the two together shows he's just a sycophant at this point):

Gk5SZIjW4AAA-Y5

(Image of Vance and Rubio sat on a sofa in the Oval office, with Rubio slumped back looking very glum)
 

778

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If Putin did authorise a nuclear attack against Europe would the Russian Government follow his orders knowing what the consequences would be?
 

Killingworth

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The problem for Ukraine is existential. If they give up then there'll essentially cease to exist as a state. What guarantees do they have that Russia won't commit similar crimes to Bucha on a much wider scale?
Absolutely none,as they well know in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland and others.

Putin's childhood is rooted in Leningrad with his parental generation steeped in the 872 day wartime experiences of bitter cold and starvation during the very long siege. It was genuinely awful, no food and no fuel. Germany on the left, Finland to the right, Lake Ladoga behind with the Baltic nations largely in support of Germany (they'd rescued them from Soviet occupation).

Putin wants revenge, to recover lost territory, possibly including parts of Poland that he believes are Russian if he could get his way. Everyone around the Baltic knows this. There's a sizable minority of Russian speakers who settled there after WW2. Putin's plan will be to escalate tensions and find any excuse to go in to rescue them. That was how it happened in Ukraine. Consequently Russian speakers may be distrusted in the Baltic nations. They're openly hated in some areas and that could become dangerous.

I doubt Trump and Vance have ever read in any depth the complex 20th century history of the Soviet Union, Russia and eastern Europe. They don't show any signs of understanding it. Possibly only as told by Putin.
 

Tetchytyke

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What guarantees do they have that Russia won't commit similar crimes to Bucha on a much wider scale?
When Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons it was due to a guarantee from Russia that it would be safe.

Guarantees aren’t worth the paper they are written on. As we’ve seen today with the White House’s very own KGB asset.
 

Yew

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Now is the time to stand up. Starmer goes and has a nap.

It seems that he has been trying to smooth things over, according to the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c625ex282zzt?post=asset:87833243-dbf1-4cca-8017-5ebd87060a00#post

A No 10 spokeswoman says:

“The prime minister has tonight spoken to both President Trump and President Zelensky.

“He retains unwavering support for Ukraine, and is doing all he can to find a path forward to a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine.

“The prime minister looks forward to hosting international leaders on Sunday including President Zelensky.”
 

Cloud Strife

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If Putin did authorise a nuclear attack against Europe would the Russian Government follow his orders knowing what the consequences would be?

No. There is just too much to lose by going along with a nuclear strike without a reason to do so. Russia would be immediately embargoed to high hell, with the borders secured. Kaliningrad would be under siege, with Poland likely deploying military assets to blockade it. The Baltics would almost certainly deploy en masse to the border along with the Finns, while the air/sea corridors to Kaliningrad would be blocked off. Saint Petersburg would no longer be accessible, with Denmark securing the shipping lanes there against any non-friendly vessel.

Meanwhile, I'd expect various SF units to destroy Russian infrastructure relating to energy exports, making it even worse for them. Kaliningrad would starve, and I'd also expect Western militaries to forcibly board and seize the Russian shadow fleet. Without that, Russia would be in a deep economic crisis within weeks, while there's also a possibility that European NATO forces would strike through Grodno and seize the Grodno Region to eliminate the Suwałki Gap.

Putin might be a lunatic, but his military men are not. These military men are also well aware that they have families in the West, as a lot of their children are already outside Russia. If you're a Russian military commander, do you want to authorise a strike, knowing that it's very likely that the European intelligence agencies know who your children are and that they too can fall from a window?
 

DanNCL

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If Putin did authorise a nuclear attack against Europe would the Russian Government follow his orders knowing what the consequences would be?
The UK and France are still nuclear armed so the perceived likelihood of the US ignoring article 5 probably wouldn't change the outcome as the MAD principle (Mutually Assured Destruction) still applies.
 

Grimsby town

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Absolutely none,as they well know in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Poland and others.

Putin's childhood is rooted in Leningrad with his parental generation steeped in the 872 day wartime experiences of bitter cold and starvation during the very long siege. It was genuinely awful, no food and no fuel. Germany on the left, Finland to the right, Lake Ladoga behind with the Baltic nations largely in support of Germany (they'd rescued them from Soviet occupation).

Putin wants revenge, to recover lost territory, possibly including parts of Poland that he believes are Russian if he could get his way. Everyone around the Baltic knows this. There's a sizable minority of Russian speakers who settled there after WW2. Putin's plan will be to escalate tensions and find any excuse to go in to rescue them. That was how it happened in Ukraine. Consequently Russian speakers may be distrusted in the Baltic nations. They're openly hated in some areas and that could become dangerous.

I doubt Trump and Vance have ever read in any depth the complex 20th century history of the Soviet Union, Russia and eastern Europe. They don't show any signs of understanding it. Possibly only as told by Putin.
I doubt trump has ever read in any depth about any complex topic
 

Cloud Strife

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I can't sleep, so I'm digging around online to see what the reactions are. Europe is completely disgusted by Trump's actions, and far from undermining Zelenskyy, he seems to have empowered him. There's a clear show of unity from most European countries towards Ukraine, and there are quite a few voices that Europe needs to look after her own defence. This is not something that is going to go away overnight, even if Trump and Zelenskyy meet again next week. The mineral deal is now far more likely to end up with Europe, and with Trump screaming about tariffs again, what more motivation than to simply move away from American tech products and develop our own?

Trump may think he's on a winner, but this sort of behaviour is also going to cause some serious questions about the continuation of the US dollar as a reserve currency. There's certainly no reason why the euro can't be used for things like aviation contracts.
 

Annetts key

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I think Starmer may well be having some very, very serious meetings right now with some of the very best defence minds in the country. This is not just "get stuffed, Trump", but a serious question about whether the UK can actually afford to rely on America. At this precise moment, if I were Starmer, I'd be calling Macron and asking him for a very urgent chat about the possibility of using French nuclear weapons technology in the Trident replacement, with a plan to develop (in the medium term) an independent launch platform, perhaps in cooperation with Poland through a nuclear-sharing deal.
We, the U.K. and the E.U. plus maybe the other N.A.T.O. countries other than the U.S.A. do need to cooperate in developing and making weapons systems. We should not and cannot rely on the U.S.A. now. Not until Trump and Vance have left office and an administration with a working brain has replaced them.

I also think that it might not be a terrible idea to simply tell the Americans to leave. Russia is no threat to Europe, and Europe (with Ukrainian drone know-how) can easily turn the weaker borders into killing fields should they get any ideas. We can also mine the borders quickly and easily, while simultaneously blocking off all access to/from Russia and Belarus. Perhaps one corridor could remain for humanitarian reasons, but other than that, let's fortify the borders.

The Americans will certainly have severe problems if we start cutting the cord. They rely heavily on assets such as the spy station in Ayios Nikolaos (SBA Dhekelia on the island of Cyprus), and without these assets, America will start to have really big problems.
Not sure about that. Certainly read them the riot act, sort things out with your administration or we will order you to leave / cut you off / throw you out

Likewise, cut off Starlink completely from the EU, as well as known propaganda platforms like Twitter, Rumble, etc.
Rumble? That's Canadian owned. But yes, U.S.A. owned companies should be told to clean up their act or be banned. As should companies that are owned elsewhere but which carry propaganda. But we do have to be careful not to ban reasonable free speech.

Let them feel the pain. If they want to come back, they're going to have to offer a lot more than they do now. Oh, and their defence contractors? Well, obviously there can be no more expensive contracts for American weapons systems. We might not be able to create truly cutting-edge weapons in the short term, but we can certainly create weapons that will do large amounts of damage.
The trouble is we need parts and support for the U.S.A. made / supplied / designed weapons systems that we have. We don't have the money to replace all of them. But for companies that we don't need, yes, tell them "sorry, we won't work with you or buy from you until sort your government out.

I've been reading quite a few independent analyses of the situation with drones, and they all are absolutely clear: Ukraine is building a drone production capability that is frankly frightening. They are developing so many things that Russia simply cannot counter them all, and this drone warfare capability is likely to become in huge demand in coming years because they've got tried and tested battlefield products. It seems that what's actually happening in Donetsk is that Ukraine isn't really engaging the Russians on the battlefield, but rather they're letting the Russians come forward, get blown to pieces with drone warfare, the Russians suffer dreadful losses when moving forward, and meanwhile the Ukrainians are retreating tactically while incurring relatively few losses.
Yes, the Russian MBT, APC, IFV, supply trucks, etc. often get blown up long before they get anywhere near the contact line.

Trump, I think, simply doesn't understand exactly where Ukraine is right now.
I'm not at all sure that he understands very much at all. The more that I watch and listen to him, the more that I think he has a problem. Maybe the early stages of Dementia or some other mental problem. Regardless, him and Vance don't have a clue about the history of this war.

I can't sleep, so I'm digging around online to see what the reactions are. Europe is completely disgusted by Trump's actions, and far from undermining Zelenskyy, he seems to have empowered him. There's a clear show of unity from most European countries towards Ukraine, and there are quite a few voices that Europe needs to look after her own defence. This is not something that is going to go away overnight, even if Trump and Zelenskyy meet again next week. The mineral deal is now far more likely to end up with Europe, and with Trump screaming about tariffs again, what more motivation than to simply move away from American tech products and develop our own?

Trump may think he's on a winner, but this sort of behaviour is also going to cause some serious questions about the continuation of the US dollar as a reserve currency. There's certainly no reason why the euro can't be used for things like aviation contracts.
The E.U. and the U.K. NEED to insist on trading oil, refined oil products and gas in Euros instead of US dollars. That would put the jitters on the U.S.A. stock and trading markets.
 
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JKF

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The E.U. and the U.K. NEED to insist on trading oil, refined oil products and gas in Euros instead of US dollars. That would put the jitters on the U.S.A. stock and trading markets.
I think they were trying to do that a number of years back, but didn’t get anywhere.

I’ve heard it suggested that some in America wouldn’t mind stopping being the reserve currency as it’s a bit of a burden and ends up overvaluing the currency (since there is always demand from other countries wanting to hold significant dollar reserves). If it stopped performing this role and the value dropped this would make exports cheaper which would help the economy (though likely have other undesired effects)
 

GusB

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I really felt for Zelenskyy today. He certainly didn't handle that meeting very well, but the way he was treated by Trump and Vance was utterly appalling; it was unprofessional and totally unbecoming of so-called world leaders. I think we're all in agreement that the people of Ukraine have had enough, despite being unwilling to give in to Russia, but I'm willing to bet that the guy in charge is feeling very lonely at this moment in time and probably feels the weight of the whole world on his shoulders. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes.
 

SteveM70

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There is the prospect of a world war, and JD Vance decides its time to talk to Zelensky like a parent would talk to a toddler, asking if he's said thank you.

Trump and Vance care far, far more about any perceived slight on themselves than they do about the people they represent, let alone the people of Ukraine
 

philosopher

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No. There is just too much to lose by going along with a nuclear strike without a reason to do so. Russia would be immediately embargoed to high hell, with the borders secured. Kaliningrad would be under siege, with Poland likely deploying military assets to blockade it. The Baltics would almost certainly deploy en masse to the border along with the Finns, while the air/sea corridors to Kaliningrad would be blocked off. Saint Petersburg would no longer be accessible, with Denmark securing the shipping lanes there against any non-friendly vessel.

Meanwhile, I'd expect various SF units to destroy Russian infrastructure relating to energy exports, making it even worse for them. Kaliningrad would starve, and I'd also expect Western militaries to forcibly board and seize the Russian shadow fleet. Without that, Russia would be in a deep economic crisis within weeks, while there's also a possibility that European NATO forces would strike through Grodno and seize the Grodno Region to eliminate the Suwałki Gap.

Putin might be a lunatic, but his military men are not. These military men are also well aware that they have families in the West, as a lot of their children are already outside Russia. If you're a Russian military commander, do you want to authorise a strike, knowing that it's very likely that the European intelligence agencies know who your children are and that they too can fall from a window?
Plus, given the wind in Europe generally goes from west to east, the radioactive fallout would likely end up in Russia if Putin used nuclear weapons close to Russian border.
 

Ivor

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I really felt for Zelenskyy today. He certainly didn't handle that meeting very well, but the way he was treated by Trump and Vance was utterly appalling; it was unprofessional and totally unbecoming of so-called world leaders. I think we're all in agreement that the people of Ukraine have had enough, despite being unwilling to give in to Russia, but I'm willing to bet that the guy in charge is feeling very lonely at this moment in time and probably feels the weight of the whole world on his shoulders. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes.
Totally agree but I’m not sure how he could have handled it any better, they shouted over him well raised voices from the off, they didn’t let him speak or respond fully if at all.

If you are in charge of a meeting with an audience it’s the easiest thing in the world to berate, embarrass & insult someone to make yourself look the BIG I AM.

Zero professionalism at that meeting from that reporter who fixated on a suit which then Trump/Vance & Co waded in on the back of that & did not shut up, their game plan worked but to what end?
 

Falcon1200

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Totally agree but I’m not sure how he could have handled it any better, they shouted over him well raised voices from the off, they didn’t let him speak or respond fully if at all.

Indeed, and of course English is not President Zelensky's first language, nor would he have been expecting or prepared for the two-person onslaught.
 

Ivor

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Indeed, and of course English is not President Zelensky's first language, nor would he have been expecting or prepared for the two-person onslaught.
Yes very good point which was my thought too, his English is very passable but in a heated exchange in that situation he would never come out on top.

Trump & Co unless I missed it never said one word of criticism towards Putin including since Trump came back to power.
 

Killingworth

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We've possibly spent too ittle time examinng Vance, the younger man brought in to counter comment about Trump's age. Former Marine Corps corporal with 4 years non-combative service he is a military veteran in US parlance.

Before his nomination for VP he was opposing military aid to Ukraine. His stance last night was all too predictable as he tried to ingratiate himself on the international stage. If we thought Trump was dangerous he may be even worse. He may hold power until 2037 if he plays his cards right.

In Trump's world it's all a game of cards, ensure you deal yourself a good hand!

Indeed, and of course English is not President Zelensky's first language, nor would he have been expecting or prepared for the two-person onslaught.
Of course Zelensky's first language was Russian so English is his third language.

One hold Putin has over Trump is that he speaks English.
 
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Magdalia

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I’ve heard it suggested that some in America wouldn’t mind stopping being the reserve currency as it’s a bit of a burden and ends up overvaluing the currency (since there is always demand from other countries wanting to hold significant dollar reserves).
On the other hand, being the global reserve currency makes it far easier for the USA to fund high levels of government debt, in excess of 100% of annual GDP, than, for example, the UK.

The E.U. and the U.K. NEED to insist on trading oil, refined oil products and gas in Euros instead of US dollars.
Reducing dependence on internationally traded oil and gas is another way of achieving the same effect.

The position of the US dollar as global reserve currency is already getting shaky. A good leading indicator of that is the behaviour of international criminals, who now usually prefer cryptocurrency.
 

Noddy

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I can imagine Trump & Vance congratulating themselves like a couple of school bullies.

Indeed. Zelensky stands up to bullies. Trump and Vance don’t have the self-awareness to realise what the rest of the world saw yesterday. Shameful what not even close.
 

Killingworth

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Indeed. Zelensky stands up to bullies. Trump and Vance don’t have the self-awareness to realise what the rest of the world saw yesterday. Shameful what not even close.
Very sadly a large number of US watchers, possibly the majority, actually agreed with Trump and Vance. A factor we need to keep firmly in mind. We're stuck with dealing with them for at least 4 years.

Biden has left them plenty of scope to criticise his 4 years.
 

Ivor

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I can imagine Trump & Vance congratulating themselves like a couple of school bullies.
Totally & also not realising to many of us they look like spoilt kids who didn’t get all the sweets they wanted, dreadful.
Indeed. Zelensky stands up to bullies. Trump and Vance don’t have the self-awareness to realise what the rest of the world saw yesterday. Shameful what not even close.
Fair play to Zelensky he does stand up to bullies but had no chance yesterday to even draw breath, the whole thing I feel shows the world Trump/Vance/Musk are devoid of professionalism & tact which is amazing considering their business backgrounds that they can’t conduct such an important meeting for the world not just Ukraine without bullying.

With that said after yesterday it will be interesting how this plays out as it looks like European leaders are saying all the right things & showing Zelensky support.
Very sadly a large number of US watchers, possibly the majority, actually agreed with Trump and Vance. A factor we need to keep firmly in mind. We're stuck with dealing with them for at least 4 years.
Yes & in the meantime Putin & Lavrov wake up this morning with hangovers after last night’s celebration.
 

Cloud Strife

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With that said after yesterday it will be interesting how this plays out as it looks like European leaders are saying all the right things & showing Zelensky support.

With the way that the battlefield is evolving, it's very possible that Ukraine simply doesn't need American hardware. Their ability with drones are second to none, and with Ukraine able to strike deep into Russia with domestically-built hardware, perhaps it really is the case that they can do well with European hardware.

The consequence of this will be severe for American interests in Europe, however. I dare say that a lot of the smaller countries are looking at what Ukraine has been able to develop: cost-effective military hardware that can do real damage to an invader, and giving Ukraine an order for several million drones may well be more sensible than buying expensive American toys. That's before we even think about other non-European countries that may also want to invest in defence: countries like Brazil might well consider that buying anything from America is a terrible idea and that it makes sense to build a European-South American common defence market.

That's before we even think about the Middle East and their defence procurement too. Trump has very little understanding of geopolitics, and ruining the hard work done by the US in the Middle East will simply make them look at Europe as a more stable and rational partner.

The position of the US dollar as global reserve currency is already getting shaky.

If I were Xi, I would do two things right now:

- Attack Taiwan immediately, taking advantage of Trump's rock bottom reputation. By seizing Taiwan, they would control TSMC, which effectively puts America in the Chinese grip.
- Simultaneously declare that China will no longer use the US dollar for international payments. This would cause a massive economic shock to the American economy, as deals would be done in other currencies, and suddenly the reserve currency status of the dollar would be massively in question. It would probably provoke a mass switch to the Euro in many dollarised countries closer to Europe, while those in Asia would likely switch to a yuan peg such as the HK dollar.
 

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