Russia invades Ukraine

[Nicholas Lewis]

Typical bully/thuggish behavior, if Trump wasn't there we wouldn't have heard a peep out of him, let alone that condescending drivel we all saw and heard yesterday. Vance is, and always has been, a opportunistic, smarmy, self-serving little weasel who switches sides whenever he thinks it will benefit him, just like every other Republican bootlicker over the past decade or so. Nothing new there in the grand scheme of things, but that performance was broadcast to the world, so it's now global knowledge what a POW Vance truly is.

I only saw one geunine world leader in the Oval Office yesterday, and it wasn't those two cretinous wastes of oxygen we're forced to acknowledge as the leaders of the US.

That press briefing was going along reasonable well for at least half an hour little sign of any animosity between Trump/JD or Zelenskyy and then it all blows up out of the blue when JD decides to light the blue touch paper.

 

[najaB]

This is the question that no-one really has a satisfactory answer for.

I've come to the conclusion that he doesn't gain anything if Russia wins, but stands to lose a lot of they don't.

I'm guessing a combination of kompromat on the personal level and past business favours that can be called in.

 

[Gloster]

I've come to the conclusion that he doesn't gain anything if Russia wins, but stands to lose a lot of they don't.

I'm guessing a combination of kompromat on the personal level and past business favours that can be called in.

I have been wondering for a while whether Trump has made too many business deals with Russian crooks over the years…and we know who the biggest Russian crook of all is. He is now threatening to start calling in the loans or else: I suspect that Trump would rather sell out another country, or even his own, rather than be publicly ruined or humiliated.

I do additionally wonder if part of Trump’s unpredictability on Ukraine is because he is being fed and led by Vance, who appears to be even more hardline. He can manage a coherent line, even if nasty, which is something that Trump seems to be having problems with nowadays. I find the prospect of President Vance to be, in many ways, even more worrying.

 

[najaB]

I find the prospect of President Vance to be, in many ways, even more worrying.

You have to go quite a ways down the line of succession to start finding sanity. The country won't be saved by a heart attack, put it that way.

 

[1D54]

How long before the skies are opened to Aeroflot to the USA? I loved it when Trump won the election but as others have said, what the hell is he getting from this? The American people on the whole will probably be asking questions as to the finance being provided to Ukraine, as many are in the UK with people struggling to to pay bills but look at the bigger picture.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I've just read in The Guardian that Russia may have a year at most of being able to sustain such a large operation in Ukraine. Could it be that Trump is actively trying to save Putin from defeat? Europe can certainly finance another year of operations there without much difficulty, especially if Merz does what everyone expects and uses military procurement to radically jumpstart the German economy.

This would certainly explain the Ukrainian reports that Russia is looking to cut recruitment for the war by 20% this year, because they simply can't finance the cost of maintaining the war. Certainly, there's no reason whatsoever not to release the frozen Russian Central Bank funds for use in Ukraine at this point, regardless of what Trump might think.

The critical thing right now, IMO, is to start ramping up real pressure on the Russian shadow fleet. Close off the Baltic Sea (realistically, Russia can do nothing about it) as well as other corridors, and also quietly provide Ukraine with the means of attacking ships elsewhere, not just in the Black Sea. A blanket ban on non-friendly freight vessels in the Baltic Sea would severely hurt the Russian economy, and Kaliningrad would be then completely dependent on the Kaliningrad-Minsk pipeline through Lithuania. The current transit deal ends this year, and without the shadow fleet being able to enter Kaliningrad, Russia is in a very tight spot there.

You have to go quite a ways down the line of succession to start finding sanity.

Actually, no! Chuck Grassley is third in line as President pro tempore of the Senate, and he is very, very vocal on his support for Ukraine. Other than that though, not sure that there's actually any sanity in that list whatsoever.

How long before the skies are opened to Aeroflot to the USA?

Opening the skies to Aeroflot won't happen, for the simple reason that many of those planes were stolen back in 2022. They're also in a very questionable state of repair now, and it's nothing short of a miracle that nothing has happened yet.

 

[Annetts key]

Some Americans still report without using Russian talking points.

The video shows British prime minister Kier Starmer meeting with Zelenskyy on Saturday. And discusses how Zelenskyy was set up by Vance in the Oval office.

 

[najaB]

Some Americans still report without using Russian talking points.

Yeah, BTC is part of the resistance. I don't know how long it will be before he's deplatformed as not being sufficiently patriotic.

 

[iknowyeah]

We know what Putin is about. If he was a homicidal maniac, we'd know it by now. You could tell, because your fingernails would be falling out due to radiation poisoning. He's a man desperate to cling to power. We can use that to our advantage.

Ok I've stayed out of this because I'm not what you'd call a "liberal" and have my own views on the US and Ukrainian democracy pre war, however Putin has had his hands dirty in Syria, basically banned fair elections and attacked his own people who have tried to organise democratically, and this is before we even start to mention Bucha or Mariupol. The Communist Party who were at one point his controlled opposition have even become targets for him across Russia, to the point of disappearances and imprisonments. What part of this doesn't scream "homicidal maniac"?

We all know what Trump is like, but something this has shown, is just what a nasty bit of work Vance is. Up to a point he may be dancing to Trump's tune, but it doesn't excuse how he treated and spoke to Zelenskyy. Of course he was in his own playground and had big brother Trump at his side to back him up.

This was the bit that worried me. I knew little about him before this but he was such a horrid little man in that exchange. From a man who's entire political career is based on not being spoken down to, all he did that entire meeting was speak down and patronise.

I've never been a fan of the US however surely now we're at a point where UK, EU, CH needs to use Euros or Sterling as their currency and push forward on renewables and local gas and oil, there is no way we can rely on the US or even MENA caught between three powers in a tug of war

 

[Noddy]

As a random aside, I wonder how long Trump's assets in the UK will remain assets. Things like golf courses only work as long as they're playable, and it doesn't take particularly much to cause serious damage to a course. Most courses are open to the public and not secured, and I cannot imagine (for instance) Police Scotland putting a lot of effort into finding who might have destroyed the fairways.

I certainly don’t think acts of vandalism are a good idea, whether against company or individual property, it just brings folk down to his grotty level. However, I wonder who the folk are that use his assets in the UK. I don’t play golf but surely most golfers have some sort of morals? Pressure could be applied here.

There’s a lot of downward pressure on Tesla sales, which was happening even before Musk went full Nazi on January 20. I think Tesla sales figures are going to be be very interesting over the next few months. The Everyone Hates Musk campaign group seem to be getting some traction, with their ‘advertisements’.


Image shows an ‘advertisement’ saying ‘Hate doesn’t sell Just ask Tesla’ and a falling share price


Image shows an ‘advertisement’ saying ‘Goes from 0 to 1939 in 3 seconds. Tesla the swasticar’.

 

[brad465]

He's something one doesn't expect to see, The Mail on Sunday calling for the State Visit to be canned:

(Mail on Sunday front page with headline: "Now stop the state visit for 'bully' Trump.")

 

[dangie]

We all know what Trump is like, but something this has shown, is just what a nasty bit of work Vance is.…

Vance is, and always has been, a opportunistic, smarmy, self-serving little weasel…

There probably (definitely) are many more words to describe Vance, but this sums him up in a nutshell.

 

[Ghostbus]

What part of this doesn't scream "homicidal maniac"?

The part where he has nuclear weapons? Specifically, tactical nuclear weapons. It baffles me that people can be so ignorant of the military capability of Russia while they debate the finer points of a Ukraine peace deal.

Putin is entirely predictable compared to some of the threats we face today. The west is simply taking a pretty long time to realise that Putin is using unconventional means for a reason. He is not mad. He's a former KGB officer. He's trained to think strategically to acheive a specific goal. His current goal being to stay in power.

Note that for all the murderous deeds, the west has yet to call Russia a terrorist state, much less call Putin a terrorist. Why is that? A terrorist blows up civilian airliners and terrorises civilian populations, right? These are just tools to Putin. No different to the Saudi Crown Prince allegedly using his state security apparatus to murder a dissident or the Israeli President being a genocidal maniac. Such things are acceptable now. It's homicidal but it is not mania. It's calculated. It's geopolitics. Primarily due to the weak response of the west.

It was an act of sheer genius by Putin to realise that all you needed to do get away with siezing by military force a piece of a sovereign European country right under the nose of NATO, was to unstitch the Russian flag from your Army uniforms. And that all the west would do in response was apply sanctions, and quietly tut when elements of the volunteer Ukrainian military resistance started to look and act like straight up Nazis.

So now some people want to claim Trump is handing Russia victory? When Putin has been acting this way since 2006 (the year of the infamous radiactive teapot incident). That's ten years before Trump was elected President, in case anyone has forgotten. Three years into the NATO led invasion of Afghanistan in pursuit of the collective defence of Europe against the super serious threat of random suicide bombers and the heroin trade.

It's called Trump Derangement Syndrome for a reason. Trump found it really quite easy to sweep aside the US political establishment, for a reason.

 

[LowLevel]

He's something one doesn't expect to see, The Mail on Sunday calling for the State Visit to be canned:

(Mail on Sunday front page with headline: "Now stop the state visit for 'bully' Trump.")

It's a chance to have a go at Starmer either way, totally expected

 

[Richard Scott]

It's a chance to have a go at Starmer either way, totally expected

That's not how it comes across to me.

 

[brad465]

The FT are reporting that a Russian spy is trying to get Nord Stream 2 started with US investor backing. To show how unprecedented this is, Trump in his first term slated Germany for Nord Stream and its reliance on Russian gas, now he seems to be all for it (then again he probably just said it as an opportunistic jibe):

Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing

Ex-spy Warnig’s plan to involve American investors shows breadth of Trump’s rapprochement with Russian president

www.ft.com

A former spy and close friend of Vladimir Putin has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, a once unthinkable move that shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow.

The efforts on a deal, according to several people aware of the discussions, were the brainchild of Matthias Warnig, an ex-Stasi officer in East Germany who until 2023 ran Nord Stream 2’s parent company for the Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom. Warnig’s plan involved outreach to the Trump team through US businessmen, the people said, as part of back-channel efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine while deepening economic ties between the US and Russia.

Some prominent Trump administration figures are aware of the initiative to bring in US investors, according to officials in Washington, and they see it as part of the push to rebuild relations with Moscow.

 

[edwin_m]

Some Americans still report without using Russian talking points.

Yeah, BTC is part of the resistance. I don't know how long it will be before he's deplatformed as not being sufficiently patriotic.

I've watched a few of these and he appears to be clutching at straws of hope for the Democrats and other anti-Trump people. Hence I wouldn't considering him a reliable source on the actual extent of anti-Trump feeling in the American general public.

Putin is entirely predictable compared to some of the threats we face today. The west is simply taking a pretty long time to realise that Putin is using unconventional means for a reason. He is not mad. He's a former KGB officer. He's trained to think strategically to acheive a specific goal. His current goal being to stay in power.

If he's enabling atrocities to support his strategic aims, does that make him any better than if he's just a homicidal maniac?

 

[Yew]

The issue now is Russia’s economy is on a war footing and this in itself will increase the risk of future invasions. Yes, the Russians have depleted manpower and materiel, but they won’t for very long.

I'm going to suggest that refurbishing tanks that are 60 years old to fight in a war against modern western armour is not something that a country with a strong industrial base would be doing. Similarly in terms of production, there is no doubt that a country on a war footing produces more war material as a percentage of GDP, however, to match currernt EU spending, Russia would need to spend 40% of its GDP.


I feel that a lot of posters still associate Russia with the might of the Soviet Union, however what Russia actually is, is a country with a population about twice the size of France, with a GDP about 35% smaller, spread across an area about 30 times that size.

 

[Howardh]

I feel that a lot of posters still associate Russia with the might of the Soviet Union, however what Russia actually is, is a country with a population about twice the size of France, with a GDP about 35% smaller, spread across an area about 30 times that size.

..and most of the population living in the west. Also Ukraine has a massive area, even without Crimea.

If Putin starts to run out of manpower then the next step is to start to conscript the youth of Moscow (the equivalent of our middle class one presumes) and other large cities; and that probably won't go down well with them, and their parents, esepecially if they return inside boxes. Putin appears to require brute force, Zelenskyy can rely on technology?

 

[Cloud Strife]

If Putin starts to run out of manpower then the next step is to start to conscript the youth of Moscow (the equivalent of our middle class one presumes) and other large cities; and that probably won't go down well with them, and their parents, esepecially if they return inside boxes. Putin appears to require brute force, Zelenskyy can rely on technology?

One interesting thing that I can't comprehend: Russia has around 600,000 in Ukraine, yet on a daily basis, they're using perhaps 1000 at the very most to launch attacks. While we can speculate as to why, it seems that Putin only has approval to use people such as criminals and ethnic minorities. It's not that Russia is actually short of manpower, it seems to be rather a self-imposed restriction, possibly with undertones of ethnic cleansing.

Intriguingly, the North Koreans also seem to have vanished. Could it be that even the North Korean military leadership sees no sense whatsoever in sacrificing their forces for the sake of this war?

 

[Howardh]

One interesting thing that I can't comprehend: Russia has around 600,000 in Ukraine, yet on a daily basis, they're using perhaps 1000 at the very most to launch attacks. While we can speculate as to why, it seems that Putin only has approval to use people such as criminals and ethnic minorities. It's not that Russia is actually short of manpower, it seems to be rather a self-imposed restriction, possibly with undertones of ethnic cleansing.

Intriguingly, the North Koreans also seem to have vanished. Could it be that even the North Korean military leadership sees no sense whatsoever in sacrificing their forces for the sake of this war?

I was under the impression that Russia had (a) it's professional military (b) genuine reserves then (c) criminals from prison "bribed" with freedom after their tour of duty - which would probably be death - and (d) ethnic minorities that were forced on to buses and dragged to the front. If I'm correct the latter two would be the first into the meat-grinder, along with the North Koreans - to save his "elite" forces who would be behind the front line and also protecting Putin himself?

If those latter elements are now exhausted, Putin will have to use his elite, or drag in those youngsters currently spared conscription due to their residence and status? Once he starts to call up the police (for example) is Putin's own safety compromised? Assuming the police will be as reluctant to go as the ordinary man?

 

[Annetts key]

One interesting thing that I can't comprehend: Russia has around 600,000 in Ukraine, yet on a daily basis, they're using perhaps 1000 at the very most to launch attacks. While we can speculate as to why, it seems that Putin only has approval to use people such as criminals and ethnic minorities. It's not that Russia is actually short of manpower, it seems to be rather a self-imposed restriction, possibly with undertones of ethnic cleansing.

Not sure about that. The actual number of Russian military personnel fighting in Ukraine or fighting against Ukraine is likely to be rather different compared to this 600,000 figure. That figure is likely to be the total number sent, not the number that is fit for duty.

And if you believe that the daily Ukrainian casualty figures are in the right ballpark, well over one thousand are being injured or killed each day. We don't know how many attack but survive without significant injury.

The other factors are that vast numbers are tied up just holding defensive positions. Attacks on Ukrainian positions not being performed due to other problems, such as lack of MBT, IFV, fuel, weapons, ammo, or reserves.

And then you (as in Russia) needs a vast number of people to try to keep it's logistics system running. From what I can tell, it's very labour intensive because they don't use pallets as much as western forces do.

Another limiting factor is how many recruits can Russia actually get to put into the fight. If daily losses are say one thousand per day and you can't get one thousand new recruits per day, but you continue to attack, you risk thinning out your force on the front line. If/when your opponent finds out, they may be able to make breakthrough. And indeed, Ukraine has managed some in the past that caused the Russians great problems.

Intriguingly, the North Koreans also seem to have vanished. Could it be that even the North Korean military leadership sees no sense whatsoever in sacrificing their forces for the sake of this war?

They took vast losses and hence I think there is a bit of a pause while they rethink things. But at least some are still fighting.

 

[brad465]

I feel that a lot of posters still associate Russia with the might of the Soviet Union, however what Russia actually is, is a country with a population about twice the size of France, with a GDP about 35% smaller, spread across an area about 30 times that size.

One of the few things the Russian regime has done well is invested huge resources into propaganda and directly and indirectly buying influence abroad, with the aim of making the country look more powerful than it actually is. It can't be a coincidence that a number of far-right and far-left groups are also sympathetic to Russia. There are even suggestions now one of the reasons Trump seems sympathetic to Putin is the former has past business dealings in New York, where Russian business interests saved him from at least one of his bankruptcies. Supporting them now is essentially a form of debt repayment.

There is also the argument Russia has thousands of nukes as a reason they look powerful. But three years of full-scale war in Ukraine and many nuclear threats later, Russia hasn't even promoted nuclear tests, let alone followed through on their threats. Could it be that many of those warheads are not what they're cracked up to be?

 

[Gathursty]

This is very-outside chance of possibility but perhaps the West is using disinformation too to wrong foot Putin.

The verbal assault on Zelenskyy was planned but what if the West planned it. It would require several hundreds of people and the Trump to outwardly behave as normal but behind closed doors be in lock step with NATO.

Then the question would be what would be the point of what we all saw on Friday. Well we would have Putin think the USA is on his side and hope it would destroy comradeship with the West faltering. However like in a game of chess, we knew in advance what Trump would do and perhaps behind closed doors, the West has made him a deal much better than Putin.

Beyond the next few weeks however I'm not sure how the West would capitalise on Putin thinking he has the West in disarray as behind the scenes the West would need to have something immediate in place to really unnerve Putin.

My theory hinges a lot on Trump playing a blinder on all of us for several years as well as NATO playing a very good strategical game for all this time.

 

[Loppylugs]

Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy was of course a very distraught affair, and had a very acrimonious ending. But could it have been very different. Apparently, Zelenskyy gifted Trump with Oleksandr Usyk's belt from his World Heavyweight Championship Boxing victory. Just suppose Usyk had still been wearing that belt when they visited the Whitehouse. Conversation thus:

Trump: Come in and sit down Zelenskyy, this is JD Vance.

Vance: Hi Z, come in and shut the door.

Trump: Oh, I see you've brought a friend, big isn't he ?

Zelenskyy: Yes, this is Oleksandr Usyk Mr. President, say hello Olly.

Usyk: Hello.

Trump: Seems a nice chap doesn't he JD?

Vance: Yyyes mmmmister pppresident.

Trump: Are you comfortable Volodymyr, would you like a cushion or something?

Zelenskyy: No i'm fine thanks Donald, now shall we get down to business?

Trump: So, what do you want Volodymyr?

Zelenskky: I want weapons, American troops on the ground and Putin eliminated.

Trump: Don't see any problem with that, what do you say JD?

Vance: Nnnno ppproblem at all.

Trump: Good, all settled then, we'll get things moving straight away. Goodbye Volodymyr and Oleksandr, take care.

Zelenskyy: Thank you Mr. President, goodbye. Come on Olly, we'll do some shopping in downtown Washington.

Trump: That went well JD, have you calmed down now?

Vance: Yes, much better now Mr. President. I feel I need a holiday.

Trump: Me too, where shall we go? St. Petersburg perhaps or Greenland maybe, Mexico, Canada?

Vance: Don't think we'd be welcome in any of those, what about the Scilly Isles?

Trump: Sounds good to me, pack your bags JD.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The FT are reporting that a Russian spy is trying to get Nord Stream 2 started with US investor backing. To show how unprecedented this is, Trump in his first term slated Germany for Nord Stream and its reliance on Russian gas, now he seems to be all for it (then again he probably just said it as an opportunistic jibe):

Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing

Ex-spy Warnig’s plan to involve American investors shows breadth of Trump’s rapprochement with Russian president

www.ft.com

Can't see it US LNG is massive beneficiary from the loss of Russian gas to EU as we will pay top dollar to keep our tanks full.

 

[DanNCL]

Could it be that many of those warheads are not what they're cracked up to be?

Hopefully we’ll never find out the answer to that one!

 

[1D54]

Opening the skies to Aeroflot won't happen, for the simple reason that many of those planes were stolen back in 2022. They're also in a very questionable state of repair now, and it's nothing short of a miracle that nothing has happened yet.

Stolen by who?

 

[Cloud Strife]

I was under the impression that Russia had (a) it's professional military (b) genuine reserves then (c) criminals from prison "bribed" with freedom after their tour of duty - which would probably be death - and (d) ethnic minorities that were forced on to buses and dragged to the front. If I'm correct the latter two would be the first into the meat-grinder, along with the North Koreans - to save his "elite" forces who would be behind the front line and also protecting Putin himself?

Yes, it seems that after the Battle of Kyiv, there was a clear move away from risking professional units on the front line. It's not really clear when they started just throwing conscripts into the meat grinder, but for instance, they took a horrific amount of casualties in the battle of Sievierodonetsk, which may have been the moment when they realised that there was little to no point in using and losing professional troops for not very much gain. The entire Russian tactic right now seems to be that they use (and lose) C and D to try and push forward, while the professional troops and reserves are used behind the front lines.

From countless drone videos, it's clear that those attacking on the Russian side have really no idea about military tactics. There are so many examples of them simply being picked off in the open, or ambushed by drones that are hunting them down in broad daylight. They are moving forwards in some areas, but it looks rather that Ukraine lets them move forward so they can be slaughtered. The Russian approach seems to be 'territory at all costs', as opposed to the Ukraine philosophy of accepting territorial losses in relatively unimportant areas in exchange for inflicting substantial losses.

Another limiting factor is how many recruits can Russia actually get to put into the fight. If daily losses are say one thousand per day and you can't get one thousand new recruits per day, but you continue to attack, you risk thinning out your force on the front line. If/when your opponent finds out, they may be able to make breakthrough. And indeed, Ukraine has managed some in the past that caused the Russians great problems.

Yes, agreed with everything that you've written. One interesting question is the recruiting process itself, which seems to be heavily focused on getting people who 'won't be missed'. I'm honestly surprised that they haven't started with widespread recruitment in places like sub-Saharan Africa, where there are huge amounts of young men who could be relatively easily convinced to get on a plane to their doom in exchange for a smallish payment.

Stolen by who?

Aeroflot and other Russian aviation companies. They've stolen around 400 aeroplanes from Western leasing companies.

 

[DanNCL]

Stolen by who?

By Aeroflot. Many of them were leased from Western companies who ended the leases when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Instead of returning the aircraft, Aeroflot and other Russian airlines kept them and re-registered them. If they were to land in certain countries including any EU country, the UK or the US, they’ll be seized.