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Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election

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adrock1976

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What's it called? It's called Cumbernauld
Following on from the "Where will it go wrong for the SNP?" thread, it has been confirmed that the recall petition for the above constituency was successful.

The present MP was/is Margaret Ferrier, who got done for the sleeper train travel testing positive during the Covid lockdown.

See https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nts-vote-to-remove-margaret-ferrier-from-seat and also the South Lanarkshire Council website.

Byelection triggered after constituents vote to remove Margaret Ferrier​

Decision to oust Covid rule-breaking MP from Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West prompts contest

Libby Brooks and Severin Carrell
Tue 1 Aug 2023 17.45 BST


A byelection will be held in Rutherglen and Hamilton West after constituents voted for the Covid rule-breaking MP Margaret Ferrier to be removed from her seat.
Voters in the constituency had six weeks to sign a recall petition, which was automatically triggered after Ferrier, the former Scottish National party member who now sits as an independent, was suspended from the Commons for 30 days after being convicted of breaking travel rules during lockdown.

More than 10% of eligible voters did so, triggering a byelection contest that Scottish Labour and the SNP consider a crucial test in advance of the next general election. In total, 11,896 of 81,124 (15%) eligible constituents signed the petition.
Once the Commons resumes in early September after the summer recess, it is for the SNP to move the writ to set a byelection date.
Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader and Rutherglen campaign coordinator, said the party believed the byelection should be held as soon as possible.
She said the SNP should set the date for 5 October, the earliest possible date after the Commons returns from its summer recess.
“The people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West have waited long enough. Give them a say and name the day,” she said. “For far too long the area has been failed – let down by two incompetent governments and left voiceless in parliament by their rule-breaking MP.
“Scottish Labour’s candidate Michael Shanks is ready to hit the ground running and be the local champion his home constituency deserves.”
Ferrier confirmed she would not stand in the byelection. In a statement to Sky News, she said the petition process had been “difficult and taxing” and she did not want to prolong it.
“I respect the outcome of the petition,” the statement said.
In a seat that has swung between Labour and the SNP in recent elections, both parties consider this a key indicator of what polls suggest is a step-change in Scottish politics after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation in February.
Polls suggest that the SNP’s dominance is diminishing, as the party struggles with questions of transparency and governance linked to the police investigation into its financial conduct, with Labour the beneficiary. With no clear route to a second independence referendum and the public overwhelmed by cost of living concerns, there are strong indications that Scottish voters are now less likely to choose which party to back based on their constitutional preferences.

Responding to the result, the SNP leader and first minister, Humza Yousaf, said: “Every Labour candidate standing in Scotland – including here in Rutherglen and Hamilton West – does so on a regressive platform of maintaining among the very worst of Tory policies.

“Keir Starmer has made a political choice to keep children and working families in poverty.”


The SNP’s candidate for the byelection, the councillor Katy Loudon, said: “I will oppose any policy that pushes children into poverty, such as the two-child benefit cap and bedroom tax. Keir Starmer’s U-turning to back Tory policy underlines that Labour in Scotland are just a branch office of Westminster.”

Ferrier faced widespread opprobrium after she visited local businesses and travelled to and from the Commons in September 2020 despite knowing she was Covid positive. Repeated visits to the area by the Guardian have found that anger at her behaviour has not abated.
 
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hexagon789

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Not sure how this is going to go though I'd assume it'll just about stay SNP with a reduced majority.
I'd be surprised on current polling.

Lab gain with about 10% over the SNP I'd say. (47 Lab, 37 SNP, etc.)
 

jfollows

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Labour will be hoping to win; the SNP gets to choose the date. SNP arrests and inquiries not looking good for them. But clearly I am not local so I have no sense of local feelings - is there outrage against the current MP which also extends to the party as well, I wonder?
 

Gloster

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Up the creek
The SNP get to move the writ, but if they have any sense they will do it without delay once the Commons resumes. Any delay will make it appear that they are trying to dodge their responsibilities (and make their criticism of Dorries look hypocritical).
 

brad465

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The timing will make the conferences very interesting, as unless it's very delayed to take place after the conference season, someone is going to have a good conference off the back of the result and someone bad.

What will be interesting I think is to see what the Tories do here: they must know they have no chance of winning but could try and act to allow the least worst party to win. I think this is the SNP, so I reckon they may try some anti-independence/anti-Scotland tricks to encourage a higher SNP turnout, something that David Cameron was reported to have done in 2010 and 2015 to make the SNP take seats off Labour.
 

McRhu

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The timing will make the conferences very interesting, as unless it's very delayed to take place after the conference season, someone is going to have a good conference off the back of the result and someone bad.

What will be interesting I think is to see what the Tories do here: they must know they have no chance of winning but could try and act to allow the least worst party to win. I think this is the SNP, so I reckon they may try some anti-independence/anti-Scotland tricks to encourage a higher SNP turnout, something that David Cameron was reported to have done in 2010 and 2015 to make the SNP take seats off Labour.
I strongly suspect that the only party wanting the SNP to do well is the SNP (and the 'Greens' I suppose). From what I can gather all around me, Labour are poised to return to Scottish politics in much the same way as the Red Sea roared back engulfing the Egyptians.
 

Wynd

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2015 SNP walkover had noting to do with DC, and eveything to do with what had happned the previous September.

Interesting that the Labour candidate in the by-election just said he publicly disagrees with a significant number of Kier's policies.

"Vote Labour, to opoose Labour policies" is a new one...
 

duncanp

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2015 SNP walkover had noting to do with DC, and eveything to do with what had happned the previous September.

Interesting that the Labour candidate in the by-election just said he publicly disagrees with a significant number of Kier's policies.

"Vote Labour, to opoose Labour policies" is a new one...

I wonder how many other Labour candidates disagree with Sir Keir Starmer, both North and South of the border.

Presumably this will all be glossed over when the general election is called.
 

edwin_m

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I wonder how many other Labour candidates disagree with Sir Keir Starmer, both North and South of the border.

Presumably this will all be glossed over when the general election is called.
And how many SNP or Tories disagree with their own leaders on some topics? It's not possible to have a political party where everyone agrees on everything - it would probably only have one member! The FPTP electoral system makes this worse, as a party has to accommodate a wider range of conflicting views to be big enough to be electable.
 

Davester50

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The present MP was/is Margaret Ferrier, who got done for the sleeper train travel testing positive during the Covid lockdown.

Wasn't the Sleeper she was on.
Guardian October 2020

On Saturday she began suffering symptoms of the virus and took a test. Despite this, she travelled 400 miles to London by train on Monday – a journey of five hours and 40 minutes – to attend parliament, where she made a brief speech in the evening during a debate on coronavirus.

That evening she was also told she had tested positive for the virus. It is unclear whether she was told that before or after she spoke in parliament, about the replacement of the furlough scheme.

The following morning, Tuesday, she travelled by train to Scotland without seeking advice but knowing she had the virus. The Guardian understands that Ferrier told the SNP’s chief whip, Patrick Grady, that a family member was unwell and was given the requisite permission to leave parliament. She has been self-isolating at home since then.

Interesting that the Labour candidate in the by-election just said he publicly disagrees with a significant number of Kier's policies.

"Vote Labour, to opoose Labour policies" is a new one...

Disappointing that.

And how many SNP or Tories disagree with their own leaders on some topics? It's not possible to have a political party where everyone agrees on everything - it would probably only have one member! The FPTP electoral system makes this worse, as a party has to accommodate a wider range of conflicting views to be big enough to be electable.

SNP lose the whip for disagreeing with Dear Leader. See Angus B MacNeil and Fergus Ewing.
Covering up for Partick Grady is just A-OK though.
 

Busaholic

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This by-election will differ from the recent trio, though, as gender self-identification is a subject the SNP leadership claim to hold dear, for the moment anyway. Their current stance is expected to lose them a significant number of votes if opinion polls are to be believed, and the possible subsequent defenestration of their lacklustre leader.
 

317 forever

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If Labour fail to regain it, it will be odd how they missed out now after regaining it for the 2017-19 Parliament.
 
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