Scotland post-Brexit - what happens next?

[nlogax]

As there were a fair few Scottish independence conversations going on in the Brexit thread I thought it'd be useful to create a new one to discuss where Scotland goes from here and how it may happen (or not!)

Personally I'm not a believer in re-running referenda in order to get the 'right' result. However it could be argued that the last result was partially based on a belief that continued EU membership was a given. So is it likely we'll see a 'twice in a generation' vote for Scotland to leave the UK? And if so, when, and what result would you expect to see?

 

[RT4038]

I think people in Scotland were probably more savvy than to believe that 'continued EU membership was a given'. I do not recall a national referendum on the subject of continued EU membership having been held before the Scottish independence referendum, to guide this belief? English politicians are no more in control of the electorate than Scottish ones.

 

[nlogax]

I think people in Scotland were probably more savvy than to believe that 'continued EU membership was a given'.

The people of Scotland voted to stay in the UK while the UK appeared to be in little danger of leaving the EU. What am I missing?

 

[DarloRich]

Independence ( on an unclear timescale)

 

[matacaster]

The people of Scotland voted to stay in the UK while the UK appeared to be in little danger of leaving the EU. What am I missing?

Suppose Scotland is in the EU and EU decide to do something unexpected, would you then feel free to leave and ahem, rejoin the UK. With the EU Germa y and France call the shots Scotland would be an irrelevance.

 

[dosxuk]

With the EU Germa y and France call the shots Scotland would be an irrelevance.

If this is the case, why is Ireland (with a smaller population than Scotland) so happy with being a member of the EU?

 

[backontrack]

I think people in Scotland were probably more savvy than to believe that 'continued EU membership was a given'.

Ah, but the No vote was inherently a vote for the status quo. Rather than change.

 

[nlogax]

Suppose Scotland is in the EU and EU decide to do something unexpected, would you then feel free to leave and ahem, rejoin the UK. With the EU Germa y and France call the shots Scotland would be an irrelevance.

Other small European countries seem pretty content with their membership. Not sure I understand your point.

 

[backontrack]

I think the British government's total and abject mishandling of the pandemic will also have contributed to pro-independence sentiment in Scotland. They've seen how badly England has messed up.

Plus, I think the loss of certain Holyrood powers through Brexit will give Scots significant pause.

Independence is only a matter of time.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

If this is the case, why is Ireland (with a smaller population than Scotland) so happy with being a member of the EU?

Ireland has had a very different history than Scotland. The EU has allowed it to reinvent itself from colonial rule. In fact, it essentially declared independence from Scotland by proxy.

I think the British government's total and abject mishandling of the pandemic will also have contributed to pro-independence sentiment in Scotland. They've seen how badly England has messed up.

Plus, I think the loss of certain Holyrood powers through Brexit will give Scots significant pause.

Independence is only a matter of time.

I don't actually believe that argument.

Firstly, the same mistakes were made by both governments. It was only more risible from the UK because Boris is loathed anyway and didn't strike the right tone with the public. It was a matter of presentation mostly, and anyway, surely if Scotland "performed better", then that would argue that the Scottish model of government has worked and could provide a good example of how devolution in England could work? If we take the pandemic handling as a cause for independence, that would mean that anything the Scottish governent does that is marginally better than what London does is a cause for seperation. It essentially means "we're better", and I don't think thats a narrative we should be upholding.

I personally think the UK is fine. I really cannot see Scots voting to put a border with England, nor do I think that Brexit resentment will linger for much longer. Sure, it will with Boris in charge as he represents it, but a new leader will come and mark a step change away from the calamity of the 2010s.

There is also the untouched federalism argument, which I think could reap lots of oppertunities for both England and Scotland.

I don't think there will be a second referendum, because the independence polling fluctuates along with the general sentiment of Scotland. It's too much of a risk for both sides so we are likely to see continuous grandstanding until the SNP's influence slowly declines.

 

[Chester1]

Ireland has had a very different history than Scotland. The EU has allowed it to reinvent itself from colonial rule. In fact, it essentially declared independence from Scotland by proxy.



I don't actually believe that argument.

Firstly, the same mistakes were made by both governments. It was only more risible from the UK because Boris is loathed anyway and didn't strike the right tone with the public. It was a matter of presentation mostly, and anyway, surely if Scotland "performed better", then that would argue that the Scottish model of government has worked and could provide a good example of how devolution in England could work? If we take the pandemic handling as a cause for independence, that would mean that anything the Scottish governent does that is marginally better than what London does is a cause for seperation. It essentially means "we're better", and I don't think thats a narrative we should be upholding.

I personally think the UK is fine. I really cannot see Scots voting to put a border with England, nor do I think that Brexit resentment will linger for much longer. Sure, it will with Boris in charge as he represents it, but a new leader will come and mark a step change away from the calamity of the 2010s.

There is also the untouched federalism argument, which I think could reap lots of oppertunities for both England and Scotland.

I don't think there will be a second referendum, because the independence polling fluctuates along with the general sentiment of Scotland. It's too much of a risk for both sides so we are likely to see continuous grandstanding until the SNP's influence slowly declines.

I think your assuming people are more rational than they are. The SNP is widely seen as having handled the pandemic much better than the Tories despite the death rates in England and Scotland being almost the same. That shows that good PR often beats substance. The SNP are arguing that hard border would be England's choice through brexit and judging by the opinion polls that argument has largely been accepted.

Much of Scotland's modern national identity seems to be based on a sense of moral superiority over the English. This is supported by a Scottish government that uses its devolved powers just enough to endorse that view. For instance, tiny variations in income tax rates to show Scotland is more progressive, while not doing anything fundementally different to England. The union can't survive that attitude, brexit has just sped up the process. England has 86% of the UKs population, if the other 3 leave we will be fine on our own. I think Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave in next few years and Wales will stick with England for a generation or so.

 

[backontrack]

Much of Scotland's modern national identity seems to be based on a sense of moral superiority over the English.

That's an utterly baseless and needlessly inflammatory assertion. Given the tone of your comment, it's hypocritical, too.

 

[Chester1]

That's an utterly baseless and needlessly inflammatory assertion. Given the tone of your comment, it's hypocritical, too.

Its not baseless. One of the main justifications used for independence is that Scotland is supposedly politically different to right wing Tory England. The SNPs reluctance to make more than token changes shows that to be virtue signalling. Its nice for many Scots to believe their country is more progressive than England but not if that means paying more than token amount of extra income tax or a new, real property tax.

 

[nlogax]

Its not baseless. One of the main justifications used for independence is that Scotland is supposedly politically different to right wing Tory England. The SNPs reluctance to make more than token changes shows that to be virtue signalling. Its nice for many Scots to believe their country is more progressive than England but not if that means paying more than token amount of extra income tax or a new, real property tax.

I suggest that free prescriptions, free university education, free sanitary products in educational facilities, lower bills as a result of keeping certain utilities in public hands.. these are things that suggest far more than mere virtue signalling. These are the signs of a civilised society and a government that apparently wants to provide the best welfare and a decent start in life for its citizens.

What isn't obvious to me is how this can be afforded as an independent nation. I have no personal qualms about the prospect of an independent Scotland other than how will it be paid for? There are myriad claims from all sides to prove that it is or isn't feasible but I've yet to study them. Maybe some of you will know more?

 

[takno]

That's an utterly baseless and needlessly inflammatory assertion. Given the tone of your comment, it's hypocritical, too.

As an English person living in Scotland it doesn't strike me as baseless at all. I'd say it's about right. Much of Scottish Nationalism is every bit as grim as English nationalism, swinging wildly as it does between a completely incorrect belief that Scotland is running things better than England, weird historical grudges, and a completely baseless sense of ethnic superiority.

If the SNP government wasn't so consistently awful I'd probably support independence. Another referendum is warranted based on just how much of a factor continuing membership of the EU was in the last referendum. The SNP and the unwholesome crowd of people who've been demanding a rerun since long before the EU referendum do themselves no favours though, and right now I can't see a pro-indy party I could ever consider voting for.

 

[Chester1]

As an English person living in Scotland it doesn't strike me as baseless at all. I'd say it's about right. Much of Scottish Nationalism is every bit as grim as English nationalism, swinging wildly as it does between a completely incorrect belief that Scotland is running things better than England, weird historical grudges, and a completely baseless sense of ethnic superiority.

If the SNP government wasn't so consistently awful I'd probably support independence. Another referendum is warranted based on just how much of a factor continuing membership of the EU was in the last referendum. The SNP and the unwholesome crowd of people who've been demanding a rerun since long before the EU referendum do themselves no favours though, and right now I can't see a pro-indy party I could ever consider voting for.

There is only so many times that Scottish nationalists can attack England for voting for brexit and attack brexit for being racist etc before it indicates a belief that Scotland is morally superior.

I suggest that free prescriptions, free university education, free sanitary products in educational facilities, lower bills as a result of keeping certain utilities in public hands.. these are things that suggest far more than mere virtue signalling. These are the signs of a civilised society and a government that apparently wants to provide the best welfare and a decent start in life for its citizens.

What isn't obvious to me is how this can be afforded as an independent nation. I have no personal qualms about the prospect of an independent Scotland other than how will it be paid for? There are myriad claims from all sides to prove that it is or isn't feasible but I've yet to study them. Maybe some of you will know more?

Overall those things amount to an extremely small proportion of Government spending but are given huge political emphasis, that is virtue signalling. If SNP had raised income taxes significantly (rather than tinker a little) or reform property taxation to make the rich pay much more tax then I would view their attitude towards "Tory England" as much more credible. Over their 13 and half years in power, for all their attacks on austerity, their actions indicate that their taxation and economic policy after independence would resemble Ireland under Fine Gael. I can see why that would be a good idea but to me it shows their left wing rhetoric and centre (or even centre right) actions, are about portraying Scotland as morally superior to England than about actually implementing left wing policy.

 

[takno]

There is only so many times that Scottish nationalists can attack England for voting for brexit and attack brexit for being racist etc before it indicates a belief that Scotland is morally superior.

To be clear, the UK leaving the EU justifies a referendum purely and simply because one of the most compelling and successful arguments against independence in the last referendum was a claim that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to remain in the EU.

I happen to think that the English vote to leave was petty, small-minded delusional and utterly self-defeating, but I don't need to think that to think that a second Scottish referendum is warranted.

 

[Gloster]

Without knowing the ins and outs of the political situation, could there be a constitutional crisis? If the SNP demands another independence vote, possibly after holding their own or holding a vote to ask whether they want another independence vote, but Westminster’s English majority plays the ‘Save the Union’ card and refuses, what happens next?

 

[Chester1]

To be clear, the UK leaving the EU justifies a referendum purely and simply because one of the most compelling and successful arguments against independence in the last referendum was a claim that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to remain in the EU.

I happen to think that the English vote to leave was petty, small-minded delusional and utterly self-defeating, but I don't need to think that to think that a second Scottish referendum is warranted.

I wasn't saying Brexit isn't a valid reason for another referendum. I was defending my earlier statement that modern Scottish identity is partly based on a feeling of moral superiority to the English and that this alone would be sufficient to cause the union to break up (let alone the other reasons). My view was described as baseless, it sounds like you think Scots (collectively) are morally superior to English (collectively)?

Id like the Tories to immediately (before May) pass legislation to make the UK a proper federal state. I am realistic that it won't happen and that England and Scotland are probably too different to stay together and the divorce sooner rather than later has advantages.

 

[backontrack]

I wasn't saying Brexit isn't a valid reason for another referendum. I was defending my earlier statement that modern Scottish identity is partly based on a feeling of moral superiority to the English...

...which carries the implication that you feel Scottish people themselves believe this, and that they are at fault.

My view was described as baseless, it sounds like you think Scots (collectively) are morally superior to English (collectively)?

Why? Because they disagree with you?

 

[radamfi]

Without knowing the ins and outs of the political situation, could there be a constitutional crisis? If the SNP demands another independence vote, possibly after holding their own or holding a vote to ask whether they want another independence vote, but Westminster’s English majority plays the ‘Save the Union’ card and refuses, what happens next?

Catalonia held an unapproved referendum but that didn't seem to do any good. Not sure what Scotland can do differently that would end up with a different result.

 

[Chester1]

...which carries the implication that you feel Scottish people themselves believe this, and that they are at fault.

Why? Because they disagree with you?

No because takno said "I happen to think that the English vote to leave was petty, small-minded delusional and utterly self-defeating", so its a valid question to ask. Does that opinion permeate into Scottish remainers view of the morality of the English population? I think with some it does.

 

[backontrack]

No because takno said "I happen to think that the English vote to leave was petty, small-minded delusional and utterly self-defeating"

So do I.

I'm English.

Does that opinion permeate into Scottish remainers view of the morality of the English population? I think with some it does.

Yes, so let's generalise that over the entire population and nation of Scotland. Good idea.

 

[radamfi]

Scotland wants a lot of immigration to grow its economy and boost its international importance. The population has hardly increased over the last 100 years. On this matter there is clear divergence from England, and another reason for independence. EU membership would provide it with free movement and if England is still outside the EU that stops immigrants moving straight to England, at least straight away.

 

[Chester1]

Scotland wants a lot of immigration to grow its economy and boost its international importance. The population has hardly increased over the last 100 years. On this matter there is clear divergence from England, and another reason for independence. EU membership would provide it with free movement and if England is still outside the EU that stops immigrants moving straight to England, at least straight away.

It means they could after 6 years (assuming Scotland retains 5 years until settlement and then 1 year for Citizenship). We will see if it works with Ireland.

The quid pro quo England would probably ask for would probably be an independent Scotland retaining the visas starting next month for British National Overseas (Hong Kongers). Without a formal agreement England would be entitled to require resident permits for Scots and only give them if they obtained Citizenship through birth or moved to Scotland longer than 6 years before. Scotland may not want people who had just naturalised as English citizens to be able to move to Scotland straight away.

 

[Richard Scott]

All I see Scottish Independence achieving is a divided Scotland. The percentage vote isn't likely to be too different to the Brexit UK percentage so you'll be forcing a significant minority to accept independence. Look where the UK are now, a Brexit deal and still divided. History, no matter how old or recent, seems to be something that politicians don't learn from. How much business will leave Scotland if it does go independent? My sister lives and works there and isn't very optimistic about an independent Scotland and she is a very intelligent, well read individual who will have done her research before making a statement like that. Remember meeting some Scots in 2014 in Ireland just before the independence referendum and they said why would they want independence, look at Ireland was their attitude saying it took it 40/50 years just to get back to where is started.

 

[GusB]

I wasn't saying Brexit isn't a valid reason for another referendum. I was defending my earlier statement that modern Scottish identity is partly based on a feeling of moral superiority to the English and that this alone would be sufficient to cause the union to break up (let alone the other reasons). My view was described as baseless, it sounds like you think Scots (collectively) are morally superior to English (collectively)?

I'd be interested to hear how you draw the conclusion that Scottish identity is partly based on a feeling of moral superiority. It's not a feeling I have, and certainly not one that most of my friends and family share. For me it's a desire for self-determination and the ability to govern our affairs at a national level. Since devolution we have gone our own way on certain issues, but have lacked the full powers to deal with others because they're reserved to Westminster. If you think that being proud of certain policies like free prescriptions, university education etc. is virtue signalling, then so be it.

I won't deny that there is some anti-English sentiment among those who desire independence, but this is not the way that all Scots think. You also need to acknowledge that there's a great deal of anti-Scottish sentiment south of the border; in the course of my work I've been told on more than one occasion to get back to my own country, despite sitting at my desk in my home country.

Scotland wants a lot of immigration to grow its economy and boost its international importance. The population has hardly increased over the last 100 years. On this matter there is clear divergence from England, and another reason for independence. EU membership would provide it with free movement and if England is still outside the EU that stops immigrants moving straight to England, at least straight away.

I haven't agreed with many of your posts so far, but this is important. Our tourism industry relies on immigrant workers, particularly in rural parts where work tends to be seasonal and relatively low-paid; the "native" workforce are here all year round and cannot rely on those wages to keep them going throughout the year.

Maybe if those jobs provided a living wage and were a little more secure, we wouldn't need to bring people from outside the UK to fulfil them.

All I see Scottish Independence achieving is a divided Scotland. The percentage vote isn't likely to be too different to the Brexit UK percentage so you'll be forcing a significant minority to accept independence. Look where the UK are now, a Brexit deal and still divided. History, no matter how old or recent, seems to be something that politicians don't learn from. How much business will leave Scotland if it does go independent? My sister lives and works there and isn't very optimistic about an independent Scotland and she is a very intelligent, well read individual who will have done her research before making a statement like that. Remember meeting some Scots in 2014 in Ireland just before the independence referendum and they said why would they want independence, look at Ireland was their attitude saying it took it 40/50 years just to get back to where is started.

Scotland has been divided for years, so don't pretend that this is a new thing. It's divided along Protestant/Catholic lines, Tory/Labour, Toonser/Teuchter, Remainer/Leaver etc. It's not really much different to the UK as a whole in that respect. What's important is where we find compromise, and there's more chance of that with the electoral system that we have here.

As for "how much business will leave Scotland", this is yet another myth peddled by the (original) Project Fear Brigade. Businesses will stay provided the economic conditions are right for trading. What those economic conditions will be shall be determined by the elected government of a newly-independent Scotland.

We'll manage, thank you.

 

[Chester1]

I'd be interested to hear how you draw the conclusion that Scottish identity is partly based on a feeling of moral superiority. It's not a feeling I have, and certainly not one that most of my friends and family share. For me it's a desire for self-determination and the ability to govern our affairs at a national level. Since devolution we have gone our own way on certain issues, but have lacked the full powers to deal with others because they're reserved to Westminster. If you think that being proud of certain policies like free prescriptions, university education etc. is virtue signalling, then so be it.

I won't deny that there is some anti-English sentiment among those who desire independence, but this is not the way that all Scots think. You also need to acknowledge that there's a great deal of anti-Scottish sentiment south of the border; in the course of my work I've been told on more than one occasion to get back to my own country, despite sitting at my desk in my home country.

Scotland could go a lot further under the current devolution settlement but chooses not to. There would have been fewer reasons to complain about Tory austerity if it had raised both rates of income tax by 5% or more. The SNP has picked rates to show Scotland was more progressive but that don't make a huge difference. That is virtue signalling!

I have no doubt Scotland will be OK as an independent country but the same is true of England. I will happy as an English citizen, with an English passport and using a customs post at Carlisle should I choose to go to Scotland.

 

[overthewater]

Another dogs dinner.. There are plenty of people who would love Scottish independence and still hate the EU IE the Double yes people which the Greens and SNP love hiding.. They Cleary have passion, so it far from clear.

 

[eoff]

The SNP of course will never accept a NO vote. To quote Alex Salmond:
"There isn't so much as a no vote in Scotland there are only deferred yesses"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661

I was hoping we would get a rest after the last independence referendum but unfortunately all opposition to the SNP has played into their hands. I don't know what effect Brexit will have on this.