One of the biggest problems encountered when the current round of electrification programmes started was the loss of knowledge and expertise as a consequence of more or less no work being done since privatisation; surely, therefore, the starting point for any conjecture such as this is to consider where electrification teams are currently located, and then identify the best way to keep them occupied so as to maximise conversion from diesel to electric traction. Let's not forget that the Sprinter family are now getting rather old, and even some Turbostars date from 1997 (if the first 168s are included), so the need to procure replacement passenger rolling stock will soon become critical.
I believe the electrification team for the MML is based in Derby, and there'll be one somewhere for the GW (Swindon?) I guess there'll be one responsible for North West England, but is that same team responsible for Trans Pennine electrifications schemes east of the Pennines as well? Who was responsible for GOBLIN? And is there a team based in the West Midlands who were responsible for Walsall - Rugeley and down the Lickey to Bromsgrove? In my opinion, what is planned/approved should be based initially around their capabilities.
I agree with what's been said about Windermere; I guess it's pretty well shovel ready and will eliminate a great deal of DMU mileage - would it also allow a Lancaster stop to be inserted into the Manchester Airport - Windermere trains? Having done that, what about Carnforth - Barrow? Or would that be better for something like a 755? Presumably, the team who's been responsible for electrification in the north west could complete Windermere quite quickly.
On the MML, because of the location of the power supply point an extension to Market Harborough is a no-brainer; has it been categorically stated that this is to go ahead? And by the time that's finished, the new trains which definitely aren't going to be class 804s should have arrived, and the MML's long distance services will be worked by bi-modes and so it makes sense to capitalise upon this capability. Therefore, once Market Harborough has been reached, would it be better for the MML team to then start at Doncaster/Moorthorpe and work south to Derby (and include the Matlock branch), and then round to Nottingham and south as far as East Midlands Parkway? This will give plenty of time to undertake whatever works are required at Leicester, and the electrification team will be able to move in after it's completed.
However, before the Leicester gap is done, I suggest the MML team should be responsible for electrifying between Derby and Birmingham, and this should also include Wichnor Junction to Lichfield (including the link to the WCML); this has the potential to release more DMUs than by completing the MML.
The West Midlands team should give there initial attention to the electrification of the fast lines between King's Norton and Longbridge (or there abouts); these weren't done when Cross City was electrified, and upon their completion the XC route will be electrified all of the way between Glasgow/Edinburgh and Bromsgrove via Doncaster.
The scope for replacing diesels with electrics will then be quite substantial; services which immediately come to mind are Leeds-Sheffield, Sheffield-Doncaster-Adwick, Nottingham-Matlock, Nottingham-Birmingham.
Moreover, the potential then exists for upgrading the Nottingham-Cardiff service. What about something like Trans Pennines Nova 3s and the proposed class 93 tri-modes? They would have the benefit of electric haulage up the Lickey, and (if I understand what I've read about them correctly) they're potentially similar in performance to class 37s when running as diesels with a battery boost to help them get away from a standing start. Wouldn't this power output be sufficient for moving 5 coaches initially between Bromsgrove and Severn Tunnel Junction, and later just on the section south west of Gloucester?
Jumping to the north, if I understand it correctly, Huddersfield-Leeds is definitely being electrified as part of the Trans Pennine upgrade; but is it then being continued eastwards? If it is, as well as giving more electrified mileage for Trans Pennine's class 802s to run as electrics, it also fills in another gap in the XC Scotland - South West England route (I don't know how Northern would benefit from this bit, but the Huddersfield-Leeds stoppers need to go from TPE to Northern if they're to go over to electric traction).
Back to the West Midlands team; having completed the wiring of all tracks west from New Street to Barnt Green, they should then extend south westwards from Bromsgrove to join with the Paddington-South Wales line at Westerleigh Junction (this should include the Gloucester triangle); Camp Hill also needs to be electrified - perhaps this should be done before effort is put into the line south west from Bromsgrove. The GW team needs to electrify between Parkway and Temple Meads so that can be energised - at the latest - at the same time as the wires reach Westerleigh from Brum; this will allow some more electric mileage for the GWR bi-modes, and the possibility of running electrics in the Cardiff-Newport-Bristol corridor has already been mentioned.
Timing; completion of the northern section of the MML, Derby-Birmingham, Neville Hill-Colton Junction, Bromsgrove-Westerleigh Junction and Filton Bank needs to have a target of 2030. Many of the Voyagers/Super Voyagers and all of XC's HSTs can then be disposed of - the latter will be getting on for 55 years old - and new stock take over. Could these be similar in concept to the REP/TCs used on Waterloo-Bournemouth/Weymouth? Could, say, a 5-car non-powered set have a high-powered EMU at its northern end, and at Bristol that be replaced by something like a 68 to propel the non-powered unit over Whiteball and the South Devon banks to Plymouth and beyond? These could also be used on the Manchester services - of course, the routes these services use are already electrified north of Birmingham. And by that time, the Nottingham-Cardiff services would be electric powered north of Gloucester, so a 93 (or equivalent) should be more than adequate along the Welsh bank of the Severn. Being realistic, although it can be argued that electrification through to Plymouth is desirable, it's unlikely it could be completed in the next ten years; however, if the government would agree to a rolling programme of electrification, even if lines west of Exeter weren't being done for, say, 15-20 years, it might make sense to make some passive provision for future electrification - perhaps even installing mast foundations - whilst the works along the South Devon sea wall between Dawlish and Teignmouth are being undertaken.
I'm not sure how Reading-Basingstoke and Didcot-Oxford should be prioritised, but both should also have a target completion date of 2030; but perhaps another electrification team needs to be established asap to manage electrification of the Chiltern network.
As the West Midlands team will be prioritising the NE/SW route between the Birmingham area and Westerleigh, perhaps the Chiltern team should start with Nuneaton-Coventry, then do Coventry-Leamington Spa, then Birmingham-Leamington Spa via Solihull, then on to Oxford via Banbury to join up with the electrified GW route. This should also be targeted for completion by 2030. XC could then have a fleet of dual voltage EMUs to operate Newcastle-Reading/Southampton and Manchester-Bournemouth services. The Chiltern team could then continue to electrify the route into Marylebone, and the West Midlands team could complete the Moor Street/Snow Hill lines (it might be more advantageous to electrify Wolverhampton-Shrewsbury first, however, as that could enable some Avanti services to become all electric as well as local services in the Wolves-Salop corridor).
The MML team should then move back to fill the Leicester gap; continuing with the 10 year objective for completion of the works described above, whatever is going to be done at Leicester needs to be completed so that the entire MML can be electrified by 2030, and the MML completion programme should also include electrification of Nottingham-Newark-Lincoln. Completion of this by 2030 is desirable but not essential, and this will permit the Leicester-Lincoln locals to go over to electrics and for the King's Cross-Lincolns to run all of the way under the wires.
Up in the north, electrification needs to plod on eastward over the Pennines from Victoria/Piccadilly through Standedge to Huddersfield, to join up with that already being worked-on between there and Leeds; not sure what they turn their attention to next - should it be west through Wigan to Southport? Although the former CLC route through Warrington Central sounds good, if Liverpool-Nottingham is transferred to TPE, at least two services will continue as diesel for some time to come as they are/very likely will be worked by 185s, and they've still got a lot of life left in them.
I understand the political argument for the electrification of lines such as that between Bishop Auckland and Saltburn, and I think a case could perhaps be made for Northallerton-Redcar; but from a resource point of view, I think it should come after 2030. However, as soon as the Trans Pennine electrification is completed, consideration should be given to replacing class 68s on Liverpool-Yorkshire services with something like class 93s (I guess 88s wouldn't have sufficient power when in diesel mode to replace class 68s east of York or Northallerton).
Although whether or not our railways should be re-nationalised is often a topic of discussion, I believe the main problem currently experienced relates to structure, not ownership; the Williams Review may address this, but even if it suggests something radical, it's unlikely that the performance achieved by BR regarding electrification will be matched. The 1955 Modernisation Plan suggested much electrification, but - apart from the SR lines which would be electrified using the 3rd rail system - all other lines would be electrified at 1500v DC. However, in 1956 BR's electrical engineer, S B Warder, decided that high voltage AC should be substituted for 1500v DC; just three years later, AC electrics started running on the Colchester-Clacton/Walton line, and in 1960 North Clydeside, Manchester-Crewe, and parts of the North East London network served from Liverpool Street were all energised. Although there were problems with transformers and mercury arc rectifiers exploding (or otherwise failing), to achieve this in such a short period was a massive achievement, for many of the changes introduced as a consequence pf Warder's decision were revolutionary rather than evolutionary. Some of the schemes not yet fully completed - like the GW one - were initially announced by Andrew Adonis, and the Labour government fell in 2010; but in just 12 years from the Modernisation Plan being announced, BR had electrified (overhead) the WCML from Euston to Manchester and Liverpool (including lines through the West Midlands and Stoke), South as well as North Clydeside, the LT&S line, the balance of the North East London programme and the GE main line between Chelmsford and Colchester, plus Kent Coast at 750v DC third rail - and also to Bournemouth, which was an extra project not included in the original Modernisation Plan schemes.
BR was able to bring experience to these projects; many of the guys involved had cut their teeth on the MSW or Shenfield schemes (subsequently extended to Southend and Chelmsford), and they'd also been involved in the AC experimental work undertaken on the Lancaster, Morecambe, and Heysham line. There hadn't been any major 750v DC schemes undertaken on the SR since before the war, but there had been power supply upgrades and work done as part of the 10-car programme on the South Eastern Division, and no doubt this expertise was used to advantage on the Kent Coast scheme.
So what ever is done in the near future needs to be planned initially round the electrification teams in place in England - Scotland and Wales will do their own thing; but the need to replace the Sprinters, 158s, 159s, and the Turbos in the not to distant future needs to be recognised. With careful planning, it MIGHT be possible to reduce demand for DMUs over the next ten years so that by 2030 the privatisation era DMUs are sufficient to meet demand for the following ten years, so that by 2040 only the CAF and Stadler DMUs and bi-modes currently being delivered are sufficient to cover the following 15 years; and by 2055, perhaps bionic duckweed (or whatever Roger Ford calls it!) will be able to power the trains required to operate over non-electrified lines, because at the present rate of progress it's very unlikely that lines such as the Blaenau Ffestiniog or Yorkshire's Esk Valley branches will be electrified, even if a financial case for so-doing could be made.
But, of course, the main problem is that although we can sit at our computers or tablets or phones and come up with what we believe are sensible ideas for restarting programmes for the electrification of Britain's railways, the present structure in England doesn't have anyone who can analyse the various options and then say "that's what we'll do"; unless, of course, Grant Shapps is more involved than Failing and is prepared to make and own decisions. For even if Williams recommends the establishment of something like the Strategic Rail Authority to take overall control, there isn't time to delay whilst it's set-up, and decisions on future electrification programmes need to be made now.
