Severe weather Saturday 7th October, some ScotRail services suspended.

[wilbers]

I was just checking times for a day trip from here to Blackpool tomorrow, and only train left showing is the 1803 from Preston to Penrith which hasn't been cancelled, presumable because its the only one that terminates at Carlisle. Still a bit of a moot point if that one runs or not as I can't go south in the morning. Car it is if the rain doesn't look too horrendous in the morning (or if it does go on Sunday instead).

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The rain forecast looks remarkable for tomorrow - a continued band of rain sitting over southern Scotland/northern England, whereas in the south, we're forecast highly unseasonably warm (hot!) temperatures. High pressure guiding the inbound low pressure over the north leaving fronts moving laterally across the affected area - while not in a position to say what will happen, I suspect there will be lots of issues around.

Preston Vs Carlisle almost certainly an operational decision though!

After looking a little further the Transpennine from Manchester Airport->Carlisle is also running back the other way (at 1934). Its the only diagram I can see that hasn't been cancelled so it does indeed look certain its an operational decision not to run some of the others between Preston and Carlisle. Now noticed its one a day scheduled to terminate/start at Carlisle on weekdays at that sort of time, but on Saturdays it usually continues into Scotland.

 

[josh-j]

Carmont was not long ago, folks! If we want a railway that works in our new extremes of weather then we need money to improve the infrastructure, not trains heading out with drivers braced to die in collisions with landslips...

 

[GusB]

At least the passengers know they tried if they actually do get stuck.

Those passengers would be the same ones who would be taking to "X, formerly known as Twitter" to complain about how horrendous their journey was and how AcmeRail didn't provide alternative transport, despite the fact that AcmeRail had issued guidance suggesting that travel was a bad idea.

It’s the thought that counts

Indeed. The people in the hot-seats have clearly thought about it. I don't think you have!

As a matter of interest, do you actually have any plans to travel in Scotland tomorrow?

 

[josh-j]

The question is; where does this all end? As the infrastructure becomes ever more subject to weather stresses, will we see shutdowns becoming more and more frequent and for lesser and lesser events? It's all very well saying 'better be safe', but that's a bottomless pit... It basically says, trains won't run so if you need to travel, use the hugely less safe roads. Shifting risk/blame/liability and increasing it in the process.

Where it should end is with substantially increased spending on infrastructure maintenance and improvement so that we don't have to worry about accidents, I suppose.

After all the weather extremes are probably going to get worse for good while yet and money for maintenance has been reduced at the same time

 

[samrammstein]

All too easy to just cancel everything these days and not even try. As if rail travel is optional for everyone, not taking into account the people who have real jobs, don't work 9-5 and can't work from home because they use their practical skills.

 

[ModernRailways]

Better protect the bottom line than run a service. BR may have had crap sandwiches (which I doubt) but at least they tried, come rain or snow.

No. It is better to protect the lives of staff, and passengers.
Lessons have been learnt from previous severe weather and subsequent accidents, including some fatal.
Network Rail make this decision, not the TOCs purely so money and profit doesn’t influence their decision making.

 

[rg177]

A load of Avanti Glasgow Central to Preston and v/v VSTP schedules have appeared in RTT now. First one leaving Glasgow at 07:35.

A change of heart, perhaps? Looks like it's either a chance to get crews in (particularly Scottish ones who will have a tricky commute in the weather) and/or to allow an inspection of the line before things start up.

 

[Unstoppable]

No. It is better to protect the lives of staff, and passengers.
Lessons have been learnt from previous severe weather and subsequent accidents, including some fatal.
Network Rail make this decision, not the TOCs purely so money and profit doesn’t influence their decision making.

Let’s just wrap all the staff up in cotton wool. I’m not sure who is more delusional the unions that have got us in this mess or the workers that believe this nonsense. The public pay for the service yet are always the ones let down time after time

A load of Avanti Glasgow Central to Preston and v/v VSTP schedules have appeared in RTT now. First one leaving Glasgow at 07:35.

A change of heart, perhaps? Looks like it's either a chance to get crews in (particularly Scottish ones who will have a tricky commute in the weather) and/or to allow an inspection of the line before things start up.

The only reason it would be a tricky commute is because of the work shy individuals who aren’t willing to come out of their cotton wool. If staff are scared of the what if then maybe they should consider if they are in the right job

 

[JamieL]

Let’s just wrap all the staff up in cotton wool. I’m not sure who is more delusional the unions that have got us in this mess or the workers that believe this nonsense. The public pay for the service yet are always the ones let down time after time


The only reason it would be a tricky commute is because of the work shy individuals who aren’t willing to come out of their cotton wool. If staff are scared of the what if then maybe they should consider if they are in the right job

It is very easy to be hawkish about the risk the others when you bear no responsibility or accountability. Personally I suspect most of the travelling public would want and expect public transport to be as safe as reasonably foreseeable. Whilst we can credit the unions with helping to promote and maintain safety standards over the years, the application is a matter of law as evidenced by the recent prosecution of NR; therefore if you believe the current situation is a "mess", then your beef is with Government. However, I suspect your view is a minority one.

 

[Strathclyder]

Given the amount of rain forecast to fall here in the next 24 hours (which is exceptional even for West Central Scotland) and lessons learnt from prior severe weather events, this is a understandable decision. Carmont wasn't that long ago and to a much, much lesser degree, does anyone else remember Lamington Viaduct being severely damaged in a storm in late 2015? To say we dodged a bullet there is a gross understatement.

The lines west of Dalmuir are particularly prone to being affected by severe weather like this given their proxmity to the Clyde/Firth of Clyde, particularly the Kilpatrick - Dumbarton East & Dalreoch - Craigendoran sections. And as for the West Highland, Falls of Cruachan in 2010? Loch Treig in 2012? Loch Eilt in 2018?

Though as ever, the railways are damned if they do, damned if they don't: cancel all services in the affected area(s) and be written off as weak, ineffectual, over reactionary etc or run services as normal at the risk of another serious incident occurring and be (rightly) excoriated after the fact for putting passengers, staff and train crews at risk. Swap out the dates, locations as needed and we'll be having the exact same conversation again when the next round of severe weather is forecast.

With Carmont fresh in people's minds this is not a suprise.

Indeed, and am glad the people in the relevent positions have taken this action quite frankly. Seems quite a few folk here have short memories though.

 

[Snow1964]

Disagree.

The WCML from Carlisle to Carstairs runs though territory prone to flooding, if not the occasional bridge being swept away. The weather forecast for tomorrow is horrible, hence train operators being realistic. “Passengers stuck on a train” is worse than “Passengers told not to travel”.

The weather forecast was not for heavy rain in either Carlisle or Carstairs area, just normal rain in these areas. The heavy rain was forecast further north

Virtually no rain forecast Preston-Carlisle which makes the Avanti decision to give up and not run even a shuttle look pathetic.

And guess what virtually no rain south of Carlisle area, and heavy rain is only north of Carstairs area curently (linking rain radar)

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar | Netweather

Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes.

www.netweather.tv

 

[davews]

Where has this 180mm of rain been actually forecast? Looking at xcweather.co.uk at Glasgow and Clydebank it seems generally 3-4mm per hour for a few hours, 30-40mm total. Yes, pretty wet, but nothing like that doomsday forecast.

 

[Morayshire]

Abd to Glq/Edb - normal running.

Sadly not the case. Majority are still showing as cancelled. Only a skeleton Aberdeen to Dundee service left this morning. Which may or may not run given that it hasn't stopped raining since last night up in Aberdeen.

 

[Snow1964]

Where has this 180mm of rain been actually forecast? Looking at xcweather.co.uk at Glasgow and Clydebank it seems generally 3-4mm per hour for a few hours, 30-40mm total. Yes, pretty wet, but nothing like that doomsday forecast.

It wasn't it was upto 100mm (which is 4 inches), with a few localised spots possibly getting nearer 150mm, and some being wintery near top of highest ground.

It was never a big area will definitely see 150mm of rain

 

[Morayshire]

Where has this 180mm of rain been actually forecast? Looking at xcweather.co.uk at Glasgow and Clydebank it seems generally 3-4mm per hour for a few hours, 30-40mm total. Yes, pretty wet, but nothing like that doomsday forecast.

Met Office last 6 hours radar shows the bulk of the heavy rain passing to the north of Glasgow. Wonder what the rain gauges in and around the Tyndrum/ Crianlarich area have actually recorded?

 

[Huntergreed]

I see the line from Glasgow to Kilmarnock has also been closed due to weather. Don’t think this section was ever to see anything as severe as what they’re getting further north.

 

[JamieL]

Driving along the A814 this morning, which runs adjacent to the North Clyde line and lower West Highland Line, I can confirm I have never seen the road so bad. Water pooling in lots of places.

 

[Huntergreed]

Anyone any idea what’s going on with this?

Avanti said there’s no service north of Preston, but this seems to be running:

Realtime Trains | 1T01 0735 Glasgow Central to Preston | 07/10/2023

Real-time train running information for 1T01 0735 departure from Glasgow Central to Preston on 07/10/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Even more strangely; it’s left Glasgow 13 minutes early!

 

[Snow1964]

Met Office last 6 hours radar shows the bulk of the heavy rain passing to the north of Glasgow. Wonder what the rain gauges in and around the Tyndrum/ Crianlarich area have actually recorded?

Here is link to rainfall, click on any coloured circle for details

Scottish Rainfall Data - provided by Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)

Rainfall data for Scotland.

www2.sepa.org.uk

 

[Silver Cobra]

LNER still intends to run via the diversionary route through Carlisle tomorrow, which begs the question if there is an electric train ban north of Carlisle, should Avanti & TPE not be running services as LNER will be using bi-modal trains.

Looks like LNER's stance has changed, as they are now no longer running anything past Newcastle.

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www.lner.co.uk

Due to adverse weather in Scotland today, Saturday 7 October, there will be no LNER services running north of Newcastle. We are advising customers not to travel.

If you have a ticket to travel between Newcastle and Scotland, you will be able to use your LNER tickets on LNER services up to and including Tuesday 10 October.

If you choose not to travel you are entitled to a refund, please click here to find out for more information

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Every train destined for Edinburgh is now listed as terminating at Newcastle today.

 

[dk1]

Other routes around Strathclyde are closing due to flooding. Looks like the correct decision was made.

 

[12C]

I can maybe understand Scotland where the severe weather is forecast but to cancel virtually everything between Preston and Carlisle is ridiculous. The forecast for Carlisle today is a bit of light rain showers and drizzle later on. At the moment in the Eden Valley it’s dry. My late father who worked for BR and would turn out in the middle of the night in snowdrifts to help keep trains running will be spinning in his grave!

 

[davews]

It wasn't it was up to 100mm (which is 4 inches), with a few localised spots possibly getting nearer 150mm, and some being wintery near top of highest ground.

It was never a big area will definitely see 150mm of rain

From the Scotrail link earlier in the thread:
with up to 180mm of rainfall forecast in many areas

Many areas have 30-40mm in 36 hours from the chart linked to above. A few with a bit more but not that much. Scotrail exaggerating a little...

 

[Trainguy34]

It is probably a good idea here as a 1 day shutdown is better then the risk of a 1 Week shutdown in places with lives lost.

 

[richa2002]

I'd imagine this will be the new working practice post-Stonehaven. Disappointing for those directly affected of course but always right to fall on the side of caution and safety.

No it isn't. By leaving the house you are introducing more risk into your life. There is a balance and shutting lines on the basis of a heavy rain forecast is pathetic. The infrastructure should be maintained to cope or we amend what is judged as too much of a risk. This kind of intensity of rain is nothing new but in the past, we just got on with it...

 

[Trainguy34]

Anyone any idea what’s going on with this?

Avanti said there’s no service north of Preston, but this seems to be running:

Realtime Trains | 1T01 0735 Glasgow Central to Preston | 07/10/2023

Real-time train running information for 1T01 0735 departure from Glasgow Central to Preston on 07/10/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Even more strangely; it’s left Glasgow 13 minutes early!

Looks like it's running in the path of an AWC to Euston that was started short at Preston, looks like its potentially meant to be the train to Euston made by stitching up 2 services. Not only was it 13 Mins early for some unbeknownst reason (full so if the paths free why not?), it's now 9 Minutes late!

 

[Trainguy34]

Never thought I would see that, looks like an extremely weird glitch. Also looks like Avanti are attempting to run a skeleton service from Preston, annoyingly leaving 5 mins before the Euston - Blackpools Arrival.

 

[greyman42]

It is very easy to be hawkish about the risk the others when you bear no responsibility or accountability. Personally I suspect most of the travelling public would want and expect public transport to be as safe as reasonably foreseeable. Whilst we can credit the unions with helping to promote and maintain safety standards over the years, the application is a matter of law as evidenced by the recent prosecution of NR; therefore if you believe the current situation is a "mess", then your beef is with Government. However, I suspect your view is a minority one.

I would be surprised if the posters view was a minority one.

 

[Falcon1200]

How many of those bemoaning today's actions have any responsibility for ensuring the overall safety of rail operations themselves? Very few, or none, I expect. But I did, in the past. I recall one day with a severe weather forecast, high winds in this case, where limited preparation had been made but otherwise passengers were effectively promised a normal timetable, however the service fell apart so rapidly that a decision had to be taken to suspend the entire train service in Scotland; This after several trains had been trapped by dewirements, requiring complex and dangerous actions to evacuate passengers and staff. Procedures for forecast high winds changed after that.......

After Carmont it is surely no surprise that decisive action for extreme rainfall too is being taken, after all NR and TOC staff have no wish to have to deal with another such incident, feel responsible for its devastating effects, or be taken to court on corporate or individual manslaughter charges.

And yes, Scotland does have plenty of rain, but that forecast today can only be described as way, way beyond anything normal.

 

[Huntergreed]

How many of those bemoaning today's actions have any responsibility for ensuring the overall safety of rail operations themselves? Very few, or none, I expect. But I did, in the past. I recall one day with a severe weather forecast, high winds in this case, where limited preparation had been made but otherwise passengers were effectively promised a normal timetable, however the service fell apart so rapidly that a decision had to be taken to suspend the entire train service in Scotland; This after several trains had been trapped by dewirements, requiring complex and dangerous actions to evacuate passengers and staff. Procedures for forecast high winds changed after that.......

After Carmont it is surely no surprise that decisive action for extreme rainfall too is being taken, after all NR and TOC staff have no wish to have to deal with another such incident, feel responsible for its devastating effects, or be taken to court on corporate or individual manslaughter charges.

And yes, Scotland does have plenty of rain, but that forecast today can only be described as way, way beyond anything normal.

I’d be surprised if anyone disagreed with what you are saying here and, in the areas where extreme rain is forecast, I agree it is entirely sensible to err on the side of caution.

What the majority of those “bemoaning”, myself included, is decisive and extreme action being taken in areas where exceptional rail is not forecast such as Carlisle to Preston, which only seems to have been cancelled for crewing and operational convenience at the complete expense of passengers.