Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Jonny]

Strawman argument. Of course that is the only alternative

I note that Peru, a neighbour to Brazil, followed the science. Peru had one of the earliest/longest lockdowns, permission slips needed to leave home, masks from March 2020. The current result? The highest death toll per capita in the world (double that of neighbouring Brazil)

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

Globally there is no consistent correlation between the severity of measures imposed and death tolls.

I wonder if masks are an aggravating factor, and were only introduced by public health so-called ^experts^ to make people more susceptible, and therefore to push the vaccine.

Therefore the rest of the restrictions are no longer proportionate.

I agree. Zero covid is tyranny, and I do not view its elimination as enough to take a vaccine that was experimental less than a year ago (or ten years, for that matter, for herd immunity). If they think that I am putting myself at even the slightest risk to protect them, they have another thing coming. It's a case of "it's the thought that counts".

Edit: only or primarily to protect them; I would not ask them to do anything (at least for Covid).

Deliberately in this case. We are told that the people that had health concerns were vaccinated back in Easter. (1st shot). Then they told us they would slow down the 1st shots to get the 2nd done. The whole point of doing this was to open up by next week so people could go back to work / enjoying life. Even I have had both, no reason to, didn’t rush and that was over 2 weeks ago. They lied.

so how we have 10k of vulnerable people is beyond me.

They have had a chance, maybe a friendly reminder and assistance if needed, then go with their choice. They may have chosen terminal withdrawal-of-treatment, which (assuming that the ability to consent is intact) should always be an option.

I do meet people that don’t think the lockdown should be lifted until everyone is vaccinated. I do tell them no-one is forcing them to go out and mix with people. They are the same people that complain social distancing isn’t happening on train x or beach y - but still going themselves. This kind of person needs to either get on with life or lock themselves away rather than make everyone else suffer.

Such people are often "rules for thee, but not for me". Given some of the pictures of E2R fraternising, mask-free, the rules are looking increasingly unjustified.

 

[LAX54]

I will not be holding my breath. I will not belive they are going to do this until it actually happens.

He said tonight that the 19th July was the 'Terminus' so that seem clear to me !

Not sure you realise 10million of the more vulnerable have only had half a vaccine.
Full hospitals for 12+more months leads to an even longer wait for your new heart valve or hip. Just look at Brazil still 2000 dying a day- a vaccine can really reduce that burden.
And no, to me Lockdown is not something I would ever agree with since we knew more about this, last May, due to the damage it causes.
Not sure of the alternative plans but am aware there could be other sensible ways around this, but you won't get any sense or publication about ALTERNATIVES to Lockdown. All Science not agreeing has been suppressed.But that is not Freedom, nor a free society.
Just saying, it is a lot of people to condemn, for a month of what is now reasonable life. But at the last furlong, how can we change the mantra from Lockdown to an alternative? You have no chance, without a regime change.

I thought all the vulnerable people were done first, IF they wanted it, we are now working our way through the 'normal' people

 

[Darandio]

He said tonight that the 19th July was the 'Terminus' so that seem clear to me !

In February when the 'cautious but irreversible' roadmap was announced he was immediately questioned afterwards and said it could indeed be reversible if the difficult decision needed to be made.

Ask me on 20th July whether I believe him.

 

[HSTEd]

This will push the exit wave into late October.

By which time NHS England will be screaming for restrictions to protect them from the winter flu peak.

 

[Jonny]

This will push the exit wave into late October.

By which time NHS England will be screaming for restrictions to protect them from the winter flu peak.

They can naff right off, again it reduces to a vaccination issue and I will be passing as any absolute benefits (barring a cataclysmic event (*)) will be measurable in basis points (percent of a percentage point) and therefore cannot be justified in terms of patient need.

* Even then, I would not seek to impinge on anyone else.

 

[kristiang85]

If you want to see SAGE's workings, here you go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...asing-restrictions-roadmap-step-4-9-june-2021

David Paton on Twitter explains this much better than I can...

So the SAGE modelling accompanying the delay suggests full re-opening on the 21st would have caused over 250k cases /day. That's a rate of just over 400 /100k. Even without Step 4, Warwick project about 100k /day by 21 June - a rate of about 170 /100k (LSHTM a bit lower).

For reference the ONS estimate daily infections in England peaked in December 2020 at 107k per day. That's in winter and with virtually no-one vaccinated.

For further reference, the peak rate of positive tests (noting that this will be less than total infections) in Florida which got rid of all its state-level restrictions/capacity limits last Sept was 81 /100k. Again in Jan with virtually no-one vaccinated.

In other words, SAGE have told the Govt that going ahead with Stage 4 would lead to a catastrophic and globally unprecedented increase in infections. In the middle of summer and despite the huge vaccination programme.

Note 250k per day is the central estimate. Warwick's upper estimate of the peak resulting from Step 4 looks closer to 350k infections per day, a rate of nearly 600 per 100k. Where do you even start with this?

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1404525343017426955

It is just beyond parody now. Surely anybody with a modicum of common sense looking at that can see it's bonkers?

 

[Bayum]

Did anyone else hear three or four different dates mentioned this in this evening’s briefing?

 

[Failed Unit]

Did anyone else hear three or four different dates mentioned this in this evening’s briefing?

You mean like a review in 2 weeks and if things are going well we may be released from prison early? I am sure I heard that.

 

[matt]

Did anyone else hear three or four different dates mentioned this in this evening’s briefing?

I think at first the Prime Minister mis-spoke (or I mis-heard) and the 29th July was mentioned

 

[nlogax]

You mean like a review in 2 weeks and if things are going well we may be released from prison early? I am sure I heard that.

That was the sop. I mean implication.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well, now we have our answer. At least a month before more easing. Although, I get the feeling they could just keep extending ad nauseum if they wanted to.....

There was a carrot dangled that if the data looks good in two weeks time they will accelerate the 19th July although exactly what the data needs to be saying wasn't made clear so unlikely. BoJo was much more certain that the 19th July is it come what may short of another variant coming to light that is highly transmissible. Valence and Whitty in answering questions underpinning this outcome.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Was a relaxation announced in the numbers allowed to attend wedding cermonies this evening?

 

[kristiang85]

Was a relaxation announced in the numbers allowed to attend wedding cermonies this evening?

Yes, but with no detail whatsoever. Those of us planning weddings are tearing our hair out.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes, but with no detail whatsoever. Those of us planning weddings are tearing our hair out.

A bride to be asked the question and he said you can have more than 30 just need to abide by relevant social distancing requirements

 

[Bayum]

You mean like a review in 2 weeks and if things are going well we may be released from prison early? I am sure I heard that.

Nah, he mentioned the 29th and other dates and spoke of vaccinating companies and goodness knows what other nonsensical dribble.

There was a carrot dangled that if the data looks good in two weeks time they will accelerate the 19th July although exactly what the data needs to be saying wasn't made clear so unlikely. BoJo was much more certain that the 19th July is it come what may short of another variant coming to light that is highly transmissible. Valence and Whitty in answering questions underpinning this outcome.

I don’t think two weeks is going to make a difference. Not with the spike in cases and only being on track to vaccinate all who want by the end of July albeit ‘hastened’ rapidly.

 

[kristiang85]

A bride to be asked the question and he said you can have more than 30 just need to abide by relevant social distancing requirements

He also ignored the other half of her question.

 

[initiation]

Surely anybody with a modicum of common sense looking at that can see it's bonkers?

Absolutely not. As stated by posters in this thread earlier today we have to believe whatever the 'scientists' say rather than the armchair experts.

SAGE have a great track record of forecasting so why would we doubt this one?

 

[nlogax]

Watching Hancock partially mop up the mess of this evening's announcement. He absolutely resents standing in the HoC acting as the PM's barrage balloon while Boris Johnson has buggered off for the day. Lindsay Hoyle isn't too impressed either.

 

[Domh245]

Yes, but with no detail whatsoever. Those of us planning weddings are tearing our hair out.

Not sure if you've seen this, but hope it helps (much as gov advice can/does!)

Weddings, civil partnerships and commemorative events from 21 June​

From 21 June, the rules on the number of people who can attend a wedding or civil partnership ceremony, a wedding reception or civil partnership celebration, and a commemorative event following a funeral such as a wake, stone setting or ash scattering, will change.

The number of people who can attend these events in a COVID-Secure venue or other venue (such as a garden of a private home) will be determined by how many people a venue can safely accommodate with social distancing measures in place, including guests of all ages and anyone working at the event.

A marquee or other structure in a private garden of a private home must have at least 50% of its walled area open at any time for it to be classed as “outdoors”, and for the limit based on safe capacity to apply.

Inside private homes, and in enclosed structures in gardens of private homes, weddings can only be held in line with broader social contact rules of up to 6 people or 2 households, except in the case of an urgent marriage where one of those getting married is seriously ill and not expected to recover (‘deathbed weddings’). These can take place in private dwellings with up to 30 people.

Some restrictions on these events will remain in place to enable them to take place safely. This includes table service requirements, face coverings, social distancing, and restrictions on dancing and singing, as at present.

For those organising weddings in gardens of private homes or on private land, you will need to make your chosen venue as safe as possible. If you plan on having more than 30 people, you must complete a COVID-19 risk assessment to determine how many attendees will be able to attend, and follow Government guidance to make the event as safe as possible. Guidance on how to complete the risk assessment will be provided.

The guidance on wedding and civil partnership ceremonies, receptions and celebrations will be updated by 15 June.

Wishing you all the best with it!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Watching Hancock partially mop up the mess of this evening's announcement. He absolutely resents standing in the HoC acting as the PM's barrage balloon while Boris Johnson has buggered off for the day. Lindsay Hoyle isn't too impressed either.

I don't know he's stolen his masters favourite saying "Captain Hindsight" and deployed it against several MPs.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

What about funerals ? -regrettably there is one to go to , for an ex workmate.

 

[Domh245]

What about funerals ? -regrettably there is one to go to , for an ex workmate.

Guidance for funerals will be updated by 17th June according to above link

 

[nlogax]

I don't know he's stolen his masters favourite saying "Captain Hindsight" and deployed it against several MPs.

Doesn't help that Hancock possesses the air of a petulant child expecting effusive praise for everything he's said and allegedly done. He's been particularly tetchy this evening.

 

[kristiang85]

Not sure if you've seen this, but hope it helps (much as gov advice can/does!)



Wishing you all the best with it!

Ah thanks!

I'm 24th July, so not hitting the nuclear button yet (but will probably have 12 days notice of what it will look like, which for something that takes 1+ years to plan is not great).

It's my best friends wedding on 10th July in most concerned about now - she has no idea what to do as the venue is too small for social distancing for everybody, but alternate dates aren't available.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Doesn't help that Hancock possesses the air of a petulant child expecting effusive praise for everything he's said and allegedly done. He's been particularly tetchy this evening.

That is excellent summary of him.

Its about time the Speaker forces SoS's to come back and answer the questions properly.

 

[MattRat]

There was a carrot dangled that if the data looks good in two weeks time they will accelerate the 19th July although exactly what the data needs to be saying wasn't made clear so unlikely. BoJo was much more certain that the 19th July is it come what may short of another variant coming to light that is highly transmissible. Valence and Whitty in answering questions underpinning this outcome.

I don't know how low they want it to be honest. There were just 3 deaths today. When it hits 0 I wonder what the excuse will be?

 

[island]

The former wasn't obligatory but the latter was (in theory!)

Not correct. The regulations making T&T check-in obligatory in England took effect from September 18th. Until then it was optional at law. The NHS COVID-19 app did not launch until September 24th.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I don't know how low they want it to be honest. There were just 3 deaths today. When it hits 0 I wonder what the excuse will be?

Hancock had to field several questions from Torys tonight about what levels do they consider to be safe - all comprehensively waffled around. Deliberate approach to allow them to do what they want.

 

[island]

Yes, all restrictions(including in particular this social distancing nonsense) ending on 19th July. I'll only believe when I see it. Wouldn't be atall surprised if they find some reason before then to cancel it and impose another 4 week delay. And the next Freedom Day would become 16th August, and then maybe 13th September.....

Indeed. And by then I will be entirely unsurprised if we are told we’ll be “heading into the higher-risk cold season” and therefore to “keep everyone safe” we need to keep up face covering rules and all kinds of other stupid restrictions into 2022.

 

[kristiang85]

Hancock had to field several questions from Torys tonight about what levels do they consider to be safe - all comprehensively waffled around. Deliberate approach to allow them to do what they want.

He also waffled around a question over whether he could say they won't bring back restrictions in the winter.