Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
Status
Not open for further replies.

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
29,373
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
Here's one for those well versed legally. If a bus or tram company makes comment that people travelling with them should wear masks, except for those who have the card stating they are medically exempt, with printed notices to that effect well displayed, if a person attempts to board the vehicle stating that they are refusing to wear a mask as a personally held preference, are the bus or tram company right in law to refuse travel to such people?
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Eyersey468

Established Member
Joined
14 Sep 2018
Messages
1,518
Here's one for those well versed legally. If a bus or tram company makes comment that people travelling with them should wear masks, except for those who have the card stating they are medically exempt, with printed notices to that effect well displayed, if a person attempts to board the vehicle stating that they are refusing to wear a mask as a personally held preference, are the bus or tram company right in law to refuse travel to such people?
I'm not sure about the legality or otherwise of it but on National Express we have been told if someone refuses to wear a mask , as opposed to saying they are exempt, then we are to refuse travel and ring the Network Control centre
 

island

Veteran Member
Joined
30 Dec 2010
Messages
13,512
Location
0036
Here's one for those well versed legally. If a bus or tram company makes comment that people travelling with them should wear masks, except for those who have the card stating they are medically exempt, with printed notices to that effect well displayed, if a person attempts to board the vehicle stating that they are refusing to wear a mask as a personally held preference, are the bus or tram company right in law to refuse travel to such people?
The company has an entitlement, but not an obligation, to refuse travel, in these precise circumstances, at the current time, under English law.

If someone wishes to make changes to the postulated circumstances, I reserve the right to make changes to my answer.
 

DelayRepay

Established Member
Joined
21 May 2011
Messages
2,015
The company has an entitlement, but not an obligation, to refuse travel, in these precise circumstances, at the current time, under English law.

If someone wishes to make changes to the postulated circumstances, I reserve the right to make changes to my answer.
The exception might be if they are running the service under contract to a local authority, when the local authority may be able to apply their own rules. But in reality the local authority would probably support the bus company anyway.
 

Class 33

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2009
Messages
2,258
MP's vote 461 to 60 in favour to extend the lockdown by 4 weeks. This parliament is an absolute disgrace!
 

geoffk

Established Member
Joined
4 Aug 2010
Messages
2,407
MP's vote 461 to 60 in favour to extend the lockdown by 4 weeks. This parliament is an absolute disgrace!
I'm guessing most of the 60 were Tory back benchers but I've not checked. But please, we don't have a "lockdown", we have social distancing, limits on gatherings and mandatory mask wearing in indoor public areas. Lockdown was when we were told to stay at home and even then we could go out for several legitimate reasons.
 

Class 33

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2009
Messages
2,258
I'm guessing most of the 60 were Tory back benchers but I've not checked. But please, we don't have a "lockdown", we have social distancing, limits on gatherings and mandatory mask wearing in indoor public areas. Lockdown was when we were told to stay at home and even then we could go out for several legitimate reasons.
Yes true, it's not a lockdown anymore. It's covid restrictions. I was just quickly posting what the headline said.
 

duncanp

Established Member
Joined
16 Aug 2012
Messages
3,079
Location
Birmingham/Smethwick
MP's vote 461 to 60 in favour to extend the lockdown by 4 weeks. This parliament is an absolute disgrace!

And now it seems that the "modelling" that led the government to delay stage 4 was based on out of date data.

Boris Johnson, it is not Matt Hancock who is "..f****** hopeless..", it is YOU.

I just hope when the time comes for a decision about July 19th, the actual figures, as opposed to the ones produced by the dodgy modelling, are sufficiently low that Boris Johnson runs out of excuses to delay any further, and is more or less forced to reopen.



Covid modelling that pushed back June 21 was based on out-of-date data​

Government published figures to support pushing back ‘Freedom Day’ despite knowing estimates of vaccine effectiveness were incorrect

On Monday, just hours before Boris Johnson pushed back Freedom Day by four weeks, the Government published new modelling, warning that a deadly third wave was on the horizon.

Under the most pessimistic scenario, Imperial College estimated Britain could experience a further 203,824 deaths by next June, while even modest estimates from other groups suggested more than 50,000 would die.

Yet it has now emerged the models were based on out-of-date estimates of vaccine effectiveness, which assumed far fewer people protected by the jabs.

Imperial was working on the basis that the AstraZeneca jab would reduce hospitalisations by between 77 and 87 per cent after two doses, while the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggested 81 to 90 per cent, and the University of Warwick put it a little higher – between 86 and 95 per cent.

We now know from real-world Public Health England (PHE) data that the AstraZeneca jab is 92 per cent effective against hospitalisation.

The effectiveness of the Pfizer jab was also underestimated by the groups, with Imperial estimating 84 to 90 per cent, LSHTM 85 to 90 per cent and Warwick 86 to 95 per cent. PHE currently estimates it is 96 per cent.

The distinction is important because it now means that both the pessimistic and central scenarios for all groups must be wrong. For Warwick, that would mean their death estimates could fall from 72,400 to 17,100.

Switching to an optimistic scenario would also see Imperial’s death figures fall from 203,824 to 26,854. Even that is likely to be too high as even their best-case vaccine efficacy was out by five per cent.

The PHE figures were made public 30 minutes after the modelling papers dropped, so it might be tempting to think that the new data came too late to make a difference.

Yet at Wednesday’s science and technology select committee, Dr Susan Hopkins, the deputy director of PHE’s national infection service, told MPs that the Government had known about the figures since last Friday.

It means that the Government published modelling data to bolster a delay despite already knowing it was out of date.

All the models showed a significant wave of infections in the summer, and suggested that a pause of several weeks would save thousands of lives. Yet this was based on central estimates which now cannot be correct.

Highlighting the data discrepancy at Wednesday's select committee, Aaron Bell, Conservative MP, said: “The models that we seem to be relying on to justify the extension of restrictions don't appear to be using [the PHE] numbers.

“This is really important because the number of deaths that those numbers ultimately forecast, are for people who have had both doses, so if they have been using numbers that are now superseded, doesn’t that alter the case for the continuation of restrictions?”

“We are voting in the House of Commons on the basis of those models. And it's obviously very good news. These numbers are coming out so far ahead of even the optimistic scenarios that have been modelled.”

The debacle was neatly summed up by committee chair Greg Clark, who asked the panel of experts: “The models would look different if we plugged in the new data? Everyone’s nodding.”

Mr Clark, the former science minister, pointed out that the pandemic had been “beset by uncertainties and difficulties with modelling evidence informing government policy decisions” and queried why the real-world data hadn’t been given precedence.

“Wouldn't it have been possible given the relatively new real world data, to say actually, in the light of this data, we need a few more days to assess it, before we decide what is going to be the right implications of public policy?”

He called for the modellers to re-run the models based on the new data as soon as possible “so that, as the Prime Minister promised, a reappraisal can be made and a change made if it's justified”.

Prof Hopkins said she had “no doubt” that the modellers would re-run the models based on the new data, yet it is likely to be too late to make a difference.

Back in February, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) also underestimated vaccine effectiveness in models used to inform the roadmap.

At the time, scientists believed jabs would reduce the risk of infection between 24 and 48 per cent after the first dose, and 30 to 60 per cent after the second dose.

But real world results were already showing that Pfizer was reducing the risk of infection by 70 per cent after one dose and 85 per cent after the second dose.

The models were indeed re-run with the updated figures, and eye-watering death estimates reduced. Yet the roadmap was never revised and the changes never acknowledged by the Government.

We can only hope this time will be different. Although cases and admissions are rising, the numbers are still very low. Dr Hopkins admitted only around one per cent of beds in the NHS are currently being used by Covid patients, with little chance of the health service being overwhelmed.

This is hardly surprising when you consider that in 12 of the last 13 weeks there have been fewer deaths than expected compared with the five-year average, with England and Wales currently 4.8 per cent below the five-year average for deaths.

As University of Oxford vaccine lead Professor Sir Andrew Pollard remarked at Wednesday’s select committee hearing: “If we don’t have very high hospitalisations despite the spread, the public health crisis is over.

“As long as people continue to get vaccinated,” he added: “We’re in a very good position.”
 

NorthKent1989

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2017
Messages
1,649
Did anyone seriously think that vote would have been any different numbers-wise?

Well, one is allowed to hope that someone in parliament has enough backbone to end this, four weeks won’t make any difference and I’ll hold my breath to see if we go back to normality as in 2019 levels of normality in July! So yes Parliament is an utter disgrace
 

NorthKent1989

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2017
Messages
1,649
I'm guessing most of the 60 were Tory back benchers but I've not checked. But please, we don't have a "lockdown", we have social distancing, limits on gatherings and mandatory mask wearing in indoor public areas. Lockdown was when we were told to stay at home and even then we could go out for several legitimate reasons.

Lockdown or restrictions either way it’s ridiculous at this point, I just hope they don’t invent new variants to delay July reopening
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
29,373
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
Well, one is allowed to hope that someone in parliament has enough backbone to end this, four weeks won’t make any difference and I’ll hold my breath to see if we go back to normality as in 2019 levels of normality in July! So yes Parliament is an utter disgrace
Have you ever considered that some of the, shall we say, more strenuous opinions expressed on this website are those not adhered to by the numbers of politicians of many hues, as has been reflected by the overwhelming vote today. Politicians carry far more weight than "armchair critics"
 

NorthOxonian

Established Member
Joined
5 Jul 2018
Messages
1,332
Location
Oxford/Newcastle
I'm guessing most of the 60 were Tory back benchers but I've not checked. But please, we don't have a "lockdown", we have social distancing, limits on gatherings and mandatory mask wearing in indoor public areas. Lockdown was when we were told to stay at home and even then we could go out for several legitimate reasons.
49 were Tory backbenchers (mostly the usual suspects), and they were joined by five DUP MPs and six Labour rebels.
 

kez19

Established Member
Joined
15 May 2020
Messages
1,745
Location
Dundee
Have you ever considered that some of the, shall we say, more strenuous opinions expressed on this website are those not adhered to by the numbers of politicians of many hues, as has been reflected by the overwhelming vote today. Politicians carry far more weight than "armchair critics"

It’s one thing we have learnt in terms of the G7 Summit recently it still resembles a one rule for the public and another by our politicians, shouldn’t we be surprised I think not.

Politicians only care for themselves they couldn’t give a toss about me, so why should I care what they think? There will be a time where this will indeed break the camels back and the backfire will come unexpectedly but I can see a downfall coming, it’s the question of when.

Just to add I’m one that’s far from an armchair critic but my eyes are wide open ever since lockdown 1 and the continuing moving of goalposts, but still keep believing everything as it’ll soon waken people up, this is not just at UK level throw in our devolved parliaments too into the mix - it’s all going to end badly.
 
Last edited:

NorthKent1989

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2017
Messages
1,649
Have you ever considered that some of the, shall we say, more strenuous opinions expressed on this website are those not adhered to by the numbers of politicians of many hues, as has been reflected by the overwhelming vote today. Politicians carry far more weight than "armchair critics"

You seem rather fond of calling those who criticise the government “armchair critics” just because a majority votes one way it doesn’t make it right or moral, in fact in the next few years we’ll will find that the so called armchair critics will be proven right on how lockdowns and restrictions will have caused more problems than solved any, the armchair critics so called were correct in saying that Boris would do a u turn.

The fact is the politicians as @kez19 correctly says, only care about themselves, the G7 summit was a disgusting display of elitism.

So please stop calling other users armchair critics I for one find it utterly disrespectful and unnecessary.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
29,373
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
You seem rather fond of calling those who criticise the government “armchair critics” just because a majority votes one way it doesn’t make it right or moral so please stop calling other armchair critics I for one find it utterly disrespectful.

The fact is the politicians as @kez19 correctly says, only care about themselves, the G7 summit was a disgusting display of elitism.
It is nothing to do with the vote though I wil admit to be pleasently surprised by the range of party support it achieved.. Those whom I see pontificating about their own personal opinions compared to the views of elected Members of Parliament who stood for election and were voted in by the electorate accordingly achieve naught but their own disquiet. "Armchair critics" is a phrase that has been used for very many years and is not one conjured up by me.

Before you know it, there will be more postings on this thread (if have not already been made) that will seem to reflect the views of a certain group headed by Wat Tyler and we all know what happened to him. The Peasants Rebellion in those days was engendered by the after effects of another pandemic.
 

TheBeard

Member
Joined
18 Oct 2014
Messages
117
Many Northerners have now tossed aside Labour forever, even worse than the CabOff, And to back them up, rather than their job of Opposing even more Spineless.
 

Purple Orange

On Moderation
Joined
26 Dec 2019
Messages
3,353
Location
The North
Many Northerners have now tossed aside Labour forever, even worse than the CabOff, And to back them up, rather than their job of Opposing even more Spineless.
How many northerners? Most, and by most I mean the vast majority, vote Labour and will continue to do so.

Back to covid though, I expect we will have a level of rules in place forever. For instance if you test positive, you must isolate. Also there will be new versions of the covid vaccine periodically released.
 

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
58,579
Location
Yorkshire
Back to covid though, I expect we will have a level of rules in place forever. For instance if you test positive, you must isolate. Also there will be new versions of the covid vaccine periodically released.
I don't think so at all. All the experts I've listened to seem to think this is likely to become the 5th endemic human coronavirus. I see no evidence so far to suggest immunity does not work in a similar way to how it works with the existing four.
 

initiation

Member
Joined
10 Nov 2014
Messages
425
How many northerners? Most, and by most I mean the vast majority, vote Labour and will continue to do so.

Slight distraction from the thread but I wouldn't say the vast majority.

If we count the North East, North West and Yorkshire+Humber as 'the North'. At the 2019 general election
Labour - 3.16million votes
Conservatives - 2.90million votes

52% vs 48%....I wonder where we have seen that result before!
Of course that excludes other parties.




Anyway back on topic - feeling pretty down about this. Coming to the realisation we will likely have restrictions imposed this winter. The only thing that can save us is if the population realise many other countries are returning to normal (and not the new kind). It hinges on the focus groups and polls as suggested in Cummins' published Whatsapp messages earlier.
 

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
58,579
Location
Yorkshire
People have had enough and as vaccination rates continue, there will become a point where the Government realise they have no choice but to give us our full freedoms back.

As for Labour, I am unlikely to ever vote for them due to their extremely pro-restriction stance.
 

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
2,100
People have had enough and as vaccination rates continue, there will become a point where the Government realise they have no choice but to give us our full freedoms back.
Not currently evident in opinion polling or political pressure, and constantly repeating the mantra will not make it true, however strongly you personally feel.
 

NorthKent1989

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2017
Messages
1,649
Not currently evident in opinion polling or political pressure, and constantly repeating the mantra will not make it true, however strongly you personally feel.

Polls are unreliable if they were true then Jeremy Corbyn would be PM, there is little public pressure to continue restrictions.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
15,066
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
How many northerners? Most, and by most I mean the vast majority, vote Labour and will continue to do so.

Back to covid though, I expect we will have a level of rules in place forever. For instance if you test positive, you must isolate. Also there will be new versions of the covid vaccine periodically released.

Labour’s hold in certain parts of the north is certainly weakened. The north-east in particular has softened, and of course many rural areas didn’t vote Labour in the first place.

The two real Labour strongholds remain South Wales and London, plus some inner parts of the other big English cities.

Time will tell if Labour manage to get back what they’ve lost in the north-east, I’d say three factors influence this - how quickly people forget Corbyn, how long Starmer lasts, and how well the Conservatives manage to please these areas. These are all unknowns at the moment, though on the first point I suspect many people will have a long memory.
 

778

Member
Joined
4 May 2020
Messages
71
Location
Hemel Hempstead
I have seen 2 articles today (from the sun and the daily mail), saying that masks on public transport will be forever.

Apparantly a leaked paper from Whitehall has suggested that facemasks in some settings could be made permanent, and homeworking will continue.

Also Dr Susan Hopkins said that masks may be compulsory, on public transport journeys over 15 minutes forever (her words may have been taken out of context though).
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,519
Location
Maidstone
I have seen 2 articles today (from the sun and the daily mail), saying that masks on public transport will be forever.

Apparantly a leaked paper from Whitehall has suggested that facemasks in some settings could be made permanent, and homeworking will continue.

Also Dr Susan Hopkins said that masks may be compulsory, on public transport journeys over 15 minutes forever (her words may have been taken out of context though).
If that happens and a resultant decline in usage results, with cars taking preference, there'll come a point where pressure to reverse this will be caused by backlogged roads, climate change pressures and maybe also even the vast array of disposable masks (and maybe reusable ones as well) entering the oceans. While I hope it won't take as long as this example, prohibition in the US didn't exactly last.
 

Purple Orange

On Moderation
Joined
26 Dec 2019
Messages
3,353
Location
The North
Labour’s hold in certain parts of the north is certainly weakened. The north-east in particular has softened, and of course many rural areas didn’t vote Labour in the first place.

The two real Labour strongholds remain South Wales and London, plus some inner parts of the other big English cities.

Time will tell if Labour manage to get back what they’ve lost in the north-east, I’d say three factors influence this - how quickly people forget Corbyn, how long Starmer lasts, and how well the Conservatives manage to please these areas. These are all unknowns at the moment, though on the first point I suspect many people will have a long memory.

Are you sure? Merseyside, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire & North of Tyne recently returned a Labour mayor with a significant win. In fact Tyne & Wear is Labour too, where the vast majority of the population of the North East reside. The rural parts of the north have generally always been Tory plus a few commuter towns, but although the Tories have won some seats, still the vast majority in the north vote Labour.

Look at the number of seats. There are 29 seats in the north east, of which Labour hold 19. The Tories gained 5 in 2019 to take their total to 10 seats and I think they have to demonstrate their competence and commitment to those areas. In the North West there are 75 seats, of which Labour hold 42 (Tories hold 32). It I was a bad election for Labour, but let’s not kid ourselves that the Tories are anything other than a minority party in the North.

I don't think so at all. All the experts I've listened to seem to think this is likely to become the 5th endemic human coronavirus. I see no evidence so far to suggest immunity does not work in a similar way to how it works with the existing four.

Can I ask, what is your profession? You appear to be extremely certain of your opinions on this subject, more than most contributors I would say.
 

Jonny

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,424
MP's vote 461 to 60 in favour to extend the lockdown by 4 weeks. This parliament is an absolute disgrace!

I'm guessing most of the 60 were Tory back benchers but I've not checked. But please, we don't have a "lockdown", we have social distancing, limits on gatherings and mandatory mask wearing in indoor public areas. Lockdown was when we were told to stay at home and even then we could go out for several legitimate reasons.

I would expect that it is the so-called opposition voting in favour. The so-called opposition are bending over and have been enabling the continuation of rules (lockdown lite).

I have seen 2 articles today (from the sun and the daily mail), saying that masks on public transport will be forever.

Apparantly a leaked paper from Whitehall has suggested that facemasks in some settings could be made permanent, and homeworking will continue.

Also Dr Susan Hopkins said that masks may be compulsory, on public transport journeys over 15 minutes forever (her words may have been taken out of context though).

Well, all I can say is that it is unreasonable to keep face coverings on public transport past July... as a requirement, if it is still reasonable at all to insist. Also, masks are prone to growing bacteria and fungi. All the press reports seem to play down the risk, but there is the risk of bacterial or fungal pneumonia. No-one knows where the black mould (mucomyosis) in India is coming from; they claim that cow dung is a factor but my bet is on the masks.

My decision to pass on the vaccination means that there will soon come a point where not wearing them is reasonable mitigation. My original logic is that, as a member of the public, you cannot reasonably expect others (you can ask but not be surprised if they don't) to take a pharmacological treatment that doesn't do much for them. It also seems that data from countries that required face coverings resulted in higher rates of complications than comparable countries that did not, among other things (NHS staff in the first wave as well), such that the so-called PPE is not safe.

It is also unreasonable to keep measures in place for the longer term, as well as being bad for marketing, especially for train services.

If the NHS wants to complain about more work in the long run, they are meant to serve us and not the other way round. They need to get used to the new environment in which they are operating.
 
Last edited:

kez19

Established Member
Joined
15 May 2020
Messages
1,745
Location
Dundee
Not currently evident in opinion polling or political pressure, and constantly repeating the mantra will not make it true, however strongly you personally feel.

you could say the same for these politicians with the forever moving goalposts, keep repeating themselves it will soon buckle due to public pressure.

Oddly enough I didn’t see any MPs before election chapping doors for opinion due to the COVID excuse, I wonder had they come round they would understand how the public feel or are they just happy living in their own fantasies?

As for polls etc, I have never been approached for any so how can any polling be true or a reflection of life?

I’m still confused as to who is really controlling this as it seems to be more of a media control/SAGE, you may ask why I say this? Well it seems anytime “freedom” approaches the media get whipped into a frenzy over variants (yet variants have been with us for donkeys), media speak to a la SAGE for prediction(s), then the government(s) bail out and obey them?

I thought it was Government responsibility and our own choice (regardless), but it seems there is a stranglehold going on by the media especially to keep this going, would the media being doing this had it been for something like Cancer or mental health issues I think not but COVID is priority regardless and everything else is thrown to the gutter, this isn’t living whatever way you look at it.

So then we must ask the question then, when does it end or if you want look at it from a different perspective how will it end? People need to look at this more than what is being said by our media politicians etc and questioning it more, if people don’t then really what happens next?
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top