Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[birchesgreen]

Zero daily deaths announced today for the first time since the pandemic started. This despite a bigly scary Indian variant that has been around for weeks (likely numbered in months), this also despite restrictions being gradually eased for nearly 12 weeks now.

I think there was a zero death day last Summer too?

 

[Darandio]

I think there was a zero death day last Summer too?

That's not what the media are saying, they say it's the first since March 2020. I suppose it's possible one was announced last year but then revised.

 

[birchesgreen]

That's not what the media are saying, they say it's the first since March 2020. I suppose it's possible one was announced last year but then revised.

Yeah maybe originally zero but later revised

 

[Silver Cobra]

Likewise for the 16 who want to keep mandatory mask wearing after June 21st - why on earth would anyone want that???!





MARK

I'll be honest and admit I voted for that option. Not because it's what I want the government to do (I'd much rather be rid of the mask mandate forever), but because I know the first option is exceedingly unlikely, with all the fuss that is being raised with regards to the Delta variant. If going with the second option allowed us to have most of the restrictions eased, I could just about accept that as a compromise.

I'm desperately hoping that things do continue on a path that allows us to be free of most restrictions throughout the summer. I have a lot of plans for the end of July to mid-August that I'm very eager to fulfil, after having gone through three periods of holiday time-off from work which happened to be within full lockdowns. But no matter what, I just can't shake the thought from my mind that something between now and then is going to go wrong, and force some level of restrictions back onto us. Hopefully it's just my anxiety and nothing does go wrong.

 

[Domh245]

Yeah maybe originally zero but later revised

Other way around in fact - no zero days were announced as we were still using the "death at any point after a test" metric. Changing that to the 28 day cutoff has retrospectively produced a zero reported day on 30/7/2020

 

[birchesgreen]

Other way around in fact - no zero days were announced as we were still using the "death at any point after a test" metric. Changing that to the 28 day cutoff has retrospectively produced a zero reported day on 30/7/2020

Ah there you go, it wasn't a figment of my fevered imagination after all (like most things I say are)

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Zero daily deaths announced today for the first time since the pandemic started. This despite a bigly scary Indian variant that has been around for weeks (likely numbered in months), this also despite restrictions being gradually eased for nearly 12 weeks now.

Yet there are still people out there desperate for us to return to even more draconian restrictions, let that sink in for a minute.

If this gets the naysayer responses I expect, i'll update my Covid bingo card accordingly.

They're throwing everything they have now. Including this tidbit from Zerobraincellszoe:

Our side are building up pressure and it's beginning to work. Keep undermining us I dare you.

(She's also told her followers to waste police time by reporting people to the counter-terrorism unit for...being opposed to restrictions.)

 

[Silver Cobra]

(She's also told her followers to waste police time by reporting people to the counter-terrorism unit for...being opposed to restrictions.)

So being opposed to restrictions makes you a terrorist now? I seriously despair for these people...

 

[duncanp]

So being opposed to restrictions makes you a terrorist now? I seriously despair for these people...

I think the police may want to feel this person's collar.

Deliberately wasting police time, and encouraging others to do so, is a serious offence.

 

[Darandio]

They're throwing everything they have now. Including this tidbit from Zerobraincellszoe:

I wouldn't waste my time reading that account. Given how vocal they are about continuing restrictions and all that goes with it then it's clear they are either on furlough or threatened with eviction.

 

[Jonny]

I wouldn't waste my time reading that account. Given how vocal they are about continuing restrictions and all that goes with it then it's clear they are either on furlough or threatened with eviction.

... or a parody account?

 

[nlogax]

... or a parody account?

Quite a few of them are exactly that. They have the express intention of winding up those whom vehemently oppose lockdowns and never-ending restrictions.

Public service announcement (again); if you're on Twitter quit following or reading these idiots' tweets. They're getting the rise out of you that they wanted.

 

[londiscape]

I voted "Other" as all restrictions should be removed on 21st June regardless of whether vaccinations are "ramped up".

Given a) the restrictions don't work in any meaningful sense, when compared to the massive health, psychological, political and economic costs and b) the vast majority of vulnerable people have already been offered full immunisation, there is no logical or moral basis for this to continue under any circumstances.

 

[317 forever]

I believe that liberation day should be postponed to the 1st day of the school summer holidays.

This will provide time for many more people to have 1st or 2nd jabs, and for the Indian variant to subside.

Furthermore, there will be less mixing as schools will be closed, and on the whole be warmer being further into summer.

I incidentally disbelieve in "discrimination" against places with higher case numbers.

 

[Class 33]

I'm desperately hoping that things do continue on a path that allows us to be free of most restrictions throughout the summer. I have a lot of plans for the end of July to mid-August that I'm very eager to fulfil, after having gone through three periods of holiday time-off from work which happened to be within full lockdowns. But no matter what, I just can't shake the thought from my mind that something between now and then is going to go wrong, and force some level of restrictions back onto us. Hopefully it's just my anxiety and nothing does go wrong.

There isn't going to be anything that goes wrong meaning a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths. It ain't going to happen! Ignore the nonsense in the press and media that "We're in a grip of a third wave", "A devastating third wave has begun", etc. We're just suffering a bit of a ripple at the moment that's all. Nothing to worry about.

I suggest you watch(or at least listen to it whilst doing something else) this video. Which should reassure you a bit.....

 

[duncanp]

I believe that liberation day should be postponed to the 1st day of the school summer holidays.

This will provide time for many more people to have 1st or 2nd jabs, and for the Indian variant to subside.

Furthermore, there will be less mixing as schools will be closed, and on the whole be warmer being further into summer.

I incidentally disbelieve in "discrimination" against places with higher case numbers.

I think it depends what you mean by "liberation day".

If you mean the day when all restrictions are removed, such as masks on public transport and in shops, track & trace in pubs, singing allowed indoors (ie live music in pubs and hymns in church) you could well be right.

The school summer holidays start on 26th July, and this is 5 weeks after 21st June.

However this does not preclude social distancing and limits on indoor gatherings being abolished on 21st June.

Four weeks after 21st June is 19th July, at which point the government would have enough data to assess the impact of lockdown easing on 21st June.

If nothing catastrophic has happened, then it could be all systems go to abolish the last remaining restrictions a week later, and have that mask burning party that most of us have been looking forward to.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Given they added no more countries today to Green list and have taken Portugal off this better ensure we get Step 4 now even if it means keeping some SD and masks in certain settings.

 

[duncanp]

Given they added no more countries today to Green list and have taken Portugal off this better ensure we get Step 4 now even if it means keeping some SD and masks in certain settings.

I think you've hit the nail on the head there.

Perhaps this is all a front by the government in order that they can justify going ahead with step 4 on 21st June. (eg. "...We are protected the UK against the risk of variants imported from abroad...")

Then at the next review of the system on 28th June, "the data" will magically show that it is "safe" to travel to these countries again.

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

I think you've hit the nail on the head there.

Perhaps this is all a front by the government in order that they can justify going ahead with step 4 on 21st June. (eg. "...We are protected the UK against the risk of variants imported from abroad...")

Then at the next review of the system on 28th June, "the data" will magically show that it is "safe" to travel to these countries again.

That's exactly my feeling on it. Basically locking the doors for a couple of weeks to preserve the 21st as much as possible and look 'responsible' and then lo and behold, things are 'safer' in July.

 

[duncanp]

The Daily Mail are reporting the government is going to make the decision regarding 21st June based on the projected number of serious illnesses and deaths, rather than the number of cases.

If true, this is a very good sign of a long overdue outbreak of common sense, rather than panicking about case numbers.

UK Covid cases rise above 5,000 for the first time since March

The Department of Health revealed there were 5,274 positive tests in the past 24 hours, the highest number since March 26, when the UK was under much stricter lockdown rules.

www.dailymail.co.uk

• Covid infections rose in EVERY age group and region in England last week, official data shows but Matt Hancock says ministers will make June 21 decision based on deaths and serious illness instead of cases
• 
  
• Public Health England data showed positive tests were up in all age groups in England in most recent week
• 
  
• Unvaccinated younger groups saw bigger spikes than older generations who have had their jabs
• 
  
• Biggest increase was among people in their 20s, who saw a 65 per cent surge in cases in a week
• 
  
• Health Secretary said it is a 'good sign' that vaccinated people are making a minority of hospital admissions
• 
  
• Said it is too soon for ministers to decide on the unlocking but they would be looking at hospitals and deaths

Coronavirus cases are on the up in every region of England and every age group with the biggest spike seen in people in their 20s, Public Health England figures showed today.

The weekly figures mark an inevitable rise in infections that scientists and ministers knew would happen once lockdown rules were ended, but come alongside fears that the Indian variant is close to triggering a third wave.

Ministers remain tight-lipped about whether social distancing will be allowed to end on June 21 as planned, but Matt Hancock said there was a 'good sign' that vaccinated people were making up only a minority of hospital admissions.

The Health Secretary said the government is keeping a close eye on daily case levels but stressed what 'really matters' is how many people end up in hospital and die from the disease and how well the jabs keep numbers down.

He also appealed for the public to be patient, warning it is still 'too early' to say whether the planned 'freedom day' can go ahead.

The PHE report showed that, in the last week of May, the positive test rate shot up by 63 per cent in the North West of England and by 65 per cent in people aged 20 to 29. It also rose 74 per cent in the South East but remained at lower levels than most other regions.

Younger adults and teenagers saw the worst increases in cases while the rise in older generations was slower, offering promise that the vaccines are protecting the most at-risk from getting infected with the virus.

Mr Hancock's comments came ahead of a G7 health ministers' meeting in Oxford, where they are expected to discuss the threat from variants after it emerged there is another one first seen in Nepal that is already in England.

Today's PHE report showed infection rates had risen in 112 areas of England in the week ending June 1 and come down in only 37, showing the country's outbreak as a whole is growing.

This aligns with figures from NHS Test & Trace and the Covid Symptom Study, which both noticed a spike in the numbers of people catching the virus in their most recent reports.

PORTUGAL CUT FROM UK TRAVEL GREEN LIST
Holidaymakers faced a hammer blow today as Portugal was removed from the UK's green list amid fears over the spread of the Nepal variant.

In a brutal overhaul, MailOnline understands that the only major holiday destination in the lowest bracket is being axed - with sources suggesting the new strain identified in the country was a significant factor in the decision.

No countries are being added to the 'green list', dashing hopes that places such as Malta, Jamaica and Grenada could be added to the roster.

And more countries are being put on the 'red list' that means returning travellers must go into quarantine hotels. They are thought to be Egypt, Sri Lanka, Costa Rica, Bahrain, Sudan, Trinidad and Tobago and Afghanistan.

It comes amid alarm that a coronavirus variant linked to Nepal could pose a fresh threat to the escape from lockdown.

At least 20 cases of the strain, which combines mutations from the Indian and South African versions, have been spotted in the UK. And a case has been identified in Portugal - which does far less genomic screening than Britain.

Meanwhile, Labour has renewed demands for the 'amber list' to be scrapped to prevent mutant strains from being imported.

And in another setback for travellers the EU has again delayed a decision on whether the UK will be added to its 'white list' of safe countries from which leisure travel is welcome.

Growing numbers suggest the virus is not contained only to hotspots, but some areas and groups are worse affected than others.

By far the highest infection rate is in the North West of England – home to Indian 'Delta' variant hotspots Bolton and Blackburn – where there were 87 positive tests for every 100,000 people last week, up 63 per cent in a week.

Second ranked is Yorkshire & The Humber, with a rate of 39 per 100,000, followed by London (31), East Midlands (24), North East (24), West Midlands (23), South East (23), East Anglia (21) and the South West (9).

The biggest week-on-week rises were in the South East (74 per cent), the North West (63 per cent), the West Midlands (44 per cent) and London (34 per cent).

Between age groups, the 65 per cent spike to 52 cases per 100,000 among 20-somethings was the worst increase. The highest rate was in 10 to 19-year-olds, at 72 per 100,000.

While young age groups saw big week-on-week surges in the positive test rate, ranging from 29 to 65 per cent for people between 10 and 50, growth was much slower in older groups, with only a 14 per cent rise in over-80s and 19 per cent among people in their 70s.

Rates were significantly lower among the elderly groups, too – just five cases per 100,000, 10 times lower than in people in their 20s.

Mr Hancock said: 'It's too early to say what the decision will be about step four of the road map, which is scheduled to be no earlier than June 21.

'Of course I look at those data every day, we publish them every day, the case numbers matter but what really matters is how that translates into the number of people going to hospital, the number of people sadly dying.

'The vaccine breaks that link – the question is how much the link has yet been broken because the majority of people who ended up in hospital are not fully vaccinated.

'That's a good sign if you like because it means that the vaccine is clearly protecting people from ending up in hospital but it also demonstrates that we need to keep going with this vaccine programme.'

Boris Johnson insisted last night that he still sees 'nothing in the data' to stop June 21 going ahead, after official statistics showed Covid made up just one in 150 deaths across England and Wales last week.

 

[initiation]

The Daily Mail are reporting the government is going to make the decision regarding 21st June based on the projected number of serious illnesses and deaths, rather than the number of cases.

If true, this is a very good sign of a long overdue outbreak of common sense, rather than panicking about case numbers.

UK Covid cases rise above 5,000 for the first time since March

The Department of Health revealed there were 5,274 positive tests in the past 24 hours, the highest number since March 26, when the UK was under much stricter lockdown rules.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Yes it is a good sign - assuming they don't base it on projections like those that predict a spike in hospitalisations worse than last year/January!

 

[brad465]

PHE are now saying the Indian (or Delta under new naming convention) is the dominant strain in the UK:

Covid: Indian variant 'now dominant' in the UK

Confirmed cases of the Indian variant have risen to 12,431 in the UK, according to new data from Public Health England

www.bbc.co.uk

The variant of coronavirus first identified in India is now the dominant strain in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has said.

The number of cases confirmed by laboratory analysis rose by 79% over the last week to 12,431.

Scientists believe the variant, now known as Delta, has overtaken the Kent, or Alpha, variant.

They say that there may also be a higher risk of hospitalisation linked to the Delta variant.

But that is based on early evidence, and PHE say more data is needed to have more confidence in the finding.

"With this variant now dominant across the UK, it remains vital that we all continue to exercise as much caution as possible," said Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency.

"The way to tackle variants is to tackle the transmission of Covid-19 as a whole."

 

[Bald Rick]

The Daily Mail are reporting the government is going to make the decision regarding 21st June based on the projected number of serious illnesses and deaths, rather than the number of cases.

If true, this is a very good sign of a long overdue outbreak of common sense, rather than panicking about case numbers.

UK Covid cases rise above 5,000 for the first time since March

The Department of Health revealed there were 5,274 positive tests in the past 24 hours, the highest number since March 26, when the UK was under much stricter lockdown rules.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The Government was always going to make the decision in this basis.

 

[Chris125]

Given they added no more countries today to Green list and have taken Portugal off this better ensure we get Step 4 now even if it means keeping some SD and masks in certain settings.

This sudden ultra-cautiousness about borders was certainly a surprise - the PHE Technical Report released this afternoon may explain why!

The Indian (Delta) variant is growing just as fast as last week, it's still over 50% more transmissible, it's spreading predominantly in schools with outbreaks almost double the week before...

...and early data suggests people are 2.6 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant than the Kent one. That came as a very unwelcome surprise and surely guarantees a delay to Step 4, perhaps till September? Thank god vaccines, two doses in particular, remain highly effective.

India Covid variant may increase risk of hospital admission, early data suggests

An analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases in England revealed that the Delta variant was associated with a 2.61 fold higher risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date compared with the Alpha variant. There was a 1.67 times higher risk of A&E care within 14 days. These figures take into account factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence and vaccination status .

Data from Scotland supported the findings, also pointing to a more than twofold higher risk of hospitalisation for those infected with the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant.

 

[Silver Cobra]

This sudden ultra-cautiousness about borders was certainly a surprise - the PHE Technical Report released this afternoon may explain why!

The Indian (Delta) variant is growing just as fast as last week, it's still over 50% more transmissible, it's spreading predominantly in schools with outbreaks almost double the week before...

...and early data suggests people are 2.6 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant than the Kent one. That came as a very unwelcome surprise and surely guarantees a delay to Step 4, perhaps till September? Thank god vaccines, two doses in particular, remain highly effective.

India Covid variant may increase risk of hospital admission, early data suggests

When I read this, I thumped my desk in exasperation and frustration. If this variant is 50% more transmissible and, more importantly, up to 2.6x more dangerous, no doubt this is going to cause SAGE and the other 'experts' to change from simply requesting the deference of the 21st June easing of restrictions to demanding the country is put under some level of additional restrictions for most of the summer, if not the entirety of summer (since it will take that long to give most of the adult population their two doses of vaccine). In other words, we're almost certainly staring down the barrel of a summer of restrictions/lockdown.

 

[chris11256]

When I read this, I thumped my desk in exasperation and frustration. If this variant is 50% more transmissible and, more importantly, up to 2.6x more dangerous, no doubt this is going to cause SAGE and the other 'experts' to change from simply requesting the deference of the 21st June easing of restrictions to demanding the country is put under some level of additional restrictions for most of the summer, if not the entirety of summer (since it will take that long to give most of the adult population their two doses of vaccine). In other words, we're almost certainly staring down the barrel of a summer of restrictions/lockdown.

In all honesty I think we need more time before drawing conclusions. We have a tendency of putting together huge scary numbers that soon fall apart later. The young people currently getting infected don’t have a huge chance of going into hospital anyway.

I’m in the camp of massively speeding up jabs(24/7 if required) rather than fall back into the cycle of lockdown & release. Some papers have suggested that a backup plan being considered is to scrap social distancing, but keep mask requirements & work from home while we finish second doses.

 

[philosopher]

This sudden ultra-cautiousness about borders was certainly a surprise - the PHE Technical Report released this afternoon may explain why!

The Indian (Delta) variant is growing just as fast as last week, it's still over 50% more transmissible, it's spreading predominantly in schools with outbreaks almost double the week before...

...and early data suggests people are 2.6 times more likely to be hospitalised with this variant than the Kent one. That came as a very unwelcome surprise and surely guarantees a delay to Step 4, perhaps till September? Thank god vaccines, two doses in particular, remain highly effective.

India Covid variant may increase risk of hospital admission, early data suggests

If it is spreading in schools, perhaps it is time to start vaccinating teenagers, or at the very least approve one of more of the vaccines for teenagers and aim to vaccinate them at the start of the next school year. The Pfizer vaccine has been approved for 12 to 18 year olds in the United States and EU.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

When I read this, I thumped my desk in exasperation and frustration. If this variant is 50% more transmissible and, more importantly, up to 2.6x more dangerous, no doubt this is going to cause SAGE and the other 'experts' to change from simply requesting the deference of the 21st June easing of restrictions to demanding the country is put under some level of additional restrictions for most of the summer, if not the entirety of summer (since it will take that long to give most of the adult population their two doses of vaccine). In other words, we're almost certainly staring down the barrel of a summer of restrictions/lockdown.

Thing is if it is all these things then its far more of a threat than any variant that has gone before it it is yet to have any significant impact so SAGE should be celebrating that our push on vaccines has paid off as they forecast. Problem we have now is hospitalisations have been creeping up and as they lag case by the next review date it seems inevitable they will be higher so that will threaten test 2 & 3 not being fulfilled.

My take is govt sitting on the fence this week means they are sitting it out so could still go either way.

 

[Chris125]

When I read this, I thumped my desk in exasperation and frustration. If this variant is 50% more transmissible and, more importantly, up to 2.6x more dangerous, no doubt this is going to cause SAGE and the other 'experts' to change from simply requesting the deference of the 21st June easing of restrictions to demanding the country is put under some level of additional restrictions for most of the summer, if not the entirety of summer (since it will take that long to give most of the adult population their two doses of vaccine). In other words, we're almost certainly staring down the barrel of a summer of restrictions/lockdown.

To be fair SAGE and the 'experts' have been warning this would could happen for weeks - a certain someone hoping to visit India for a trade deal didn't want to put it on the Red List despite an *insane* growth in cases almost impossible to explain, and when he eventually did they allowed many more days of packed flights to land.

When the variant's exponential growth became clear about a month back he ignored the advice to delay Step 3 and lifted restrictions... and that growth has continued relentlessly.

Boris gambled that it wouldn't be as bad as the experts feared, and it's arguably worse tbh.

If it is spreading in schools, perhaps it is time to start vaccinating teenagers, or at the very least approve one of more of the vaccines for teenagers and aim to vaccinate them at the start of the next school year. The Pfizer vaccine has been approved for 12 to 18 year olds in the United States and EU.

I hope that won't be necessary - if we fully vaccinate 85%+ of all adults, which looks increasingly likely, then we might manage herd immunity.

 

[Yew]

plain, and when he eventually did they allowed many more days of packed flights to land.

When the variant's exponential growth became clear about a month back

All variants grow exponentially.

Boris gambled that it wouldn't be as bad as the experts feared, and it's arguably worse tbh.

All previous estimates have been quietly revised down significantly after a few weeks, in the balance of probabilities we'll probably see the same. The idea of a mutant-super-vaccine-evading virus is scaremongering waffle for the front page of the gutter-press, not scientific reality.

I hope that won't be necessary - if we fully vaccinate 85%+ of all adults, which looks increasingly likely, then we might manage herd immunity.

Indeed, but there is no need to continue with damaging and ineffective restrictions until that point. We we need to make sure we balance the harms of these measures against the harms of the virus; something we have been incredibly poor at over the last 12 months.

If it is spreading in schools, perhaps it is time to start vaccinating teenagers, or at the very least approve one of more of the vaccines for teenagers and aim to vaccinate them at the start of the next school year. The Pfizer vaccine has been approved for 12 to 18 year olds in the United States and EU.

Is it in the medical interests of the chidren to do so?