Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Jamesrob637]

Fairly sure it was table service only - at least it was where I went.

I went into a Wetherspoon and there were queues for the bar in the same civilised way as you would see on a railway platform in Japan, so things were a little bit more "liberal" a year/11 months ago, but not by much. I'm fairly sure, however, that we were restricted to the rule of six indoors and almost unlimited outdoors, which is more or less like now.

 

[185143]

I went into a Wetherspoon and there were queues for the bar in the same civilised way as you would see on a railway platform in Japan, so things were a little bit more "liberal" a year/11 months ago, but not by much. I'm fairly sure, however, that we were restricted to the rule of six indoors and almost unlimited outdoors, which is more or less like now.

Spoons were definitely allowing you to order at the bar, though were encouraging you to use the app. There was no table service in the current style.

I remember thinking that Tim Martin had clearly been inspired by Boris in making his reopening rules which pretty much included "we prefer you to use the app, or don't use the app and use card. Or if you want, use cash". Why not just say "we prefer app orders, but this is not a requirement"?

 

[Cdd89]

Here are the rewritten rules from 4 July, 2020:

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (No. 2) (England) Regulations 2020

These Regulations require the closure of businesses listed in Schedule 2, to protect against the risks to public health arising from coronavirus, except for limited permitted uses. They also impose restrictions on gatherings both inside and outside, of more than 30 people. The closures and...

www.legislation.gov.uk

(4) During the emergency period, no person may participate in a gathering which—

(a)consists of more than thirty persons,

(b)takes place indoors, and

(c)would be a gathering of a kind mentioned in section 63(1) of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994(15) if it took place on land in the open air.



5.—(1) During the emergency period, unless paragraph (3) applies, no person may participate in a gathering which—

(a)consists of more than thirty persons, and

(b)takes place—

(i)in a private dwelling, including a houseboat,

(ii)on a vessel, other than a houseboat or a vessel used for public transport, or

(iii)on land which satisfies the condition in paragraph (2).

Aka the “rule of 30” even in indoor homes. The rule of 6 came along in September 2020, and was briefly present during the “one way barbecue garden party” easing for the single month of June 2020.

Gatherings of 30 are not permitted under the current Step 3 regulations, and are likely to remain not permitted by 4 July 2021.

 

[MikeWM]

Here are the rewritten rules from 4 July, 2020:

Thanks - I wasn't in a position to dig that up earlier.

Interesting to see how people are recalling the situation last July compared to what actually happened - yes, there was a lot of guidance, but it mostly wasn't law, unlike now.

So, to make my point again : we're going to be under much stricter restrictions and regulations this July than we were last July, even though last July not one single person had been vaccinated. Doesn't this seem rather odd?

 

[Jonny]

The expiry date was amended to the 20th when we went ahead with 'step 3' in May.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/regulation/10


Expect another such amendment next week

You may note however that the explanatory memorandum states
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/pdfs/uksiem_20200592_en.pdf


which starts to be a little rude if they turn out to be in force for longer.

Which might be ok if it is 12-point-something months that rounds down to twelve, but if it carries on past 12.5 months (so as to round up to 13 months) or even 13 whole months and/or has the look-and-feel of requirement to be vaccinated (based on altered circumstances), it might be a proverbial spanner in the works with regard to enforcement. OK, so there is the "specified public places" order, but if that is not allowed to lapse then it will likely be unenforceable.

Also, at least a cursory reading of the explanatory memorandum fails to consider if wearing a face covering poses a risk, which itself is an issue. If it was decided that face coverings are zero-risk (at least for most people)

I would be interested to know if masks/"face coverings" are a factor in the "black mould" that has affected COVID patients in India, as it could tip the balance against face coverings being safe, full stop.

 

[Bald Rick]

Then again when questioned about pubs and restaurants the other week you said all the ones you knew were doing great. The ones I know of are worried about collapsing completely if this goes on for much longer. Funny that.

Yep, the ones I know are all doing very well. My local pub tonight was as busy as it’s ever been.

 

[bramling]

Yep, the ones I know are all doing very well. My local pub tonight was as busy as it’s ever been.

Is that doing well as in having a pub full of people, or doing well as in on solid financial ground having lost quite a few months of turnover?

I can only speak for two that I know, one at work whose other half runs a pub / restaurant, and our local Indian restaurant. Neither are happy, on the contrary.

 

[yorksrob]

Is that doing well as in having a pub full of people, or doing well as in on solid financial ground having lost quite a few months of turnover?

I can only speak for two that I know, one at work whose other half runs a pub / restaurant, and our local Indian restaurant. Neither are happy, on the contrary.

Very good point.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Gatherings of 30 are not permitted under the current Step 3 regulations, and are likely to remain not permitted by 4 July 2021.

Apart from weddings and occasional sports attendance, I don't hang about much in groups of more than high single or low double digits even non COVID!

 

[Cdd89]

Apart from weddings and occasional sports attendance, I don't hang about much in groups of more than high single or low double digits even non COVID!

I think I’m in the same position, I’m minimally inconvenienced (domestically) by Step 3’s restrictions and could put up with them indefinitely.

But one thing restrictions have taught me is that what is irrelevant to me might be life-changing for someone else (and that’s before getting to the economic implications) — and vice versa.

 

[kristiang85]

Yep, the ones I know are all doing very well. My local pub tonight was as busy as it’s ever been.

Yes but then add in the usual people who'd stand up at the bar, who would pop in for a spontaneous pint, etc etc.
Barely any pubs are reaching 2019 levels of income.

 

[Tomp94]

If I could wage a personal war with the government and their SAGE masters, I would.
At this stage in the roadmap, the best case scenarios from the preschool like modeling done by sage, had 7 to 12 thousand covid positive patients in hospital. We're barely even at 1000.
There is literally zero reason based on actual data on the ground to delay the full re opening of society on 21st June.
Maybe its about political control, under the guise of science, for your own good, etc.
At what point are people going to take back control from this authoritarian nonsense by a "Conservative" government?
The government, and their "scientist" advisors should be ashamed of themselves.
The best thing anyone can do is to IGNORE restrictions where possible, and turn off all mainstream news, TV, Newspaper and radio. Don't watch or listen to any govt press conference or address to the nation.
I've been reading a state of fear by laura dodsworth. An enlightening read for sure!

 

[duncanp]

I don't know if this is significant, but the I Newspaper is reporting that the unlocking on June 21st is to be postponed by TWO weeks, rather than four weeks as is being reported by all other papers.

The significant paragraph in the article is

The Prime Minister is looking at pushing back step four of the roadmap out of lockdown by two weeks rather than four, to balance the benefits to public health with further risks to the economy.

This is a classic case of "..lets leak different versions of what the government is planning to different papers over the weekend and see what the reaction is.."

It is also possible that there could be a partial unlocking on 5th July, with a full unlocking two weeks later.

Boris Johnson must take economic and mental health considerations into account, when making his decision, although I don't hold out a great deal of hope.

He needs to realise that the locktivists in SAGE will never be happy with a full reopening, and that whenever you reopen there will always be the likelihood that cases will rise.

As I have said before, summer is by far the best time of the year to reopen, as respiratory viruses are at a low prevalence, people are able to mix outdoors more, and the schools are closed, thereby reducing the potential for virus transmission.

Full reopening needs to be tied to significant milestones in the vaccination programme which have a realistic chance of being met before the end of July. (eg All adults offered their first dose, or all over 50s offered their second dose)

That way, he can keep to his strategy of "data, not dates", but fend off the SAGE scientists who would quite happily keep us under house arrest until judgement day.

 

[Mintona]

I for one am shocked

 

[DelayRepay]

Yes but then add in the usual people who'd stand up at the bar, who would pop in for a spontaneous pint, etc etc.
Barely any pubs are reaching 2019 levels of income.

I expect town centre pubs are particularly suffering from a lack of office workers going for a drink after work.

Plus the extra costs - it takes more staff to deliver drinks to tables than it would to serve at a bar. I suspect this is one reason why pubs are pushing their apps - without an app they would need even more staff as someone would need to go round taking orders. Plus the costs some will have incurred in setting up outside areas.

I was chatting to the landlady of my local pub. She says she's just about breaking even, but she's working seven days a week to keep staff costs down. She often used to have a band in on a Friday night and the place was packed. Now it's nowhere near as busy, and the customers she has are tending to go home earlier too.

 

[102 fan]

So we're going to be under much stricter restrictions and regulations this July than we were last July... Was that how the vaccination program was supposed to work? I don't recall that being what we were told at the start of the year.

As I've been asking since the 'roadmap' started in February - what's the alternative? If rising case numbers *do* cause a surge in hospitalisations, are we just going to lock down again? Forever?

I was called a pedant on this forum for asking why we're calling it a vaccine when it seems not to act as such.

 

[davews]

On my trip up to town on Thursday I definitely got the impression that people have had enough and are paying just lip service to the regs. Minimal social distancing on the tubes and trains. Pub I had lunch in pretty relaxed and people chatting by the bar and choosing their beer if not actually collecting it there themselves. More over they want to chat with you. Having got lost on my walk and asking a passer by for directions they not only did that but stood and chatted with you 'where are you going..'. I even had a ten minute chat from a lady on the history of the lime kilns in Highgate Wood which she took me to show. If there weren't the damned masks you wouldn't know anything was going on.

 

[Bald Rick]

Is that doing well as in having a pub full of people, or doing well as in on solid financial ground having lost quite a few months of turnover?

Both

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If I could wage a personal war with the government and their SAGE masters, I would.
At this stage in the roadmap, the best case scenarios from the preschool like modeling done by sage, had 7 to 12 thousand covid positive patients in hospital. We're barely even at 1000.
There is literally zero reason based on actual data on the ground to delay the full re opening of society on 21st June.
Maybe its about political control, under the guise of science, for your own good, etc.
At what point are people going to take back control from this authoritarian nonsense by a "Conservative" government?
The government, and their "scientist" advisors should be ashamed of themselves.
The best thing anyone can do is to IGNORE restrictions where possible, and turn off all mainstream news, TV, Newspaper and radio. Don't watch or listen to any govt press conference or address to the nation.
I've been reading a state of fear by laura dodsworth. An enlightening read for sure!

As soon as this roadmap was published i saw the fact that not quoting any specific data thresholds for the steps gave them a free hand to do what they wanted. So whilst you and I and majority of this forum would say the data speaks for itself because there isn't anything specific published they can make it up as they go along to suit there needs. The media have played along with both outcomes last few weeks but will always back the winning horse as they see that they can keeps us hooked for a few more weeks. The risk here now is like Christmas was guaranteed than cancelled at the last minute they will always have an excuse just take a look at how many letters of the Greek alphabet that have already been used. The CRG have already rolled back and just want weddings exempted, the labour party don't even turn up and the media are hopeless. This two week break clause is just to buy us off and come the 19th July they will be getting agitated about Autumn being just round the corner so doubt full relaxation will happen in 2021 now. All the while BoJo can use it as air cover to keep everything else out of the news he will.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes that is the problem.

I can see the SAGE lockdown obsessives giving it "just two more weeks" here and there, then all of a sudden "it's autumn so we have to keep resteictions over winter".

 

[chris11256]

This morning we have some papers saying two weeks and some saying four weeks delay. The perk is that after doing some quick research the view does seem to be fairly unanimous that any delay shouldn’t be more than four weeks, as you then push the hospital admissions peak into Autumn when hospitals normally start getting busier.

If I’m being realistic as much as I’d like two weeks, I just can’t see it happening. Although it is all moot if they still don’t remove social distancing.

 

[yorkie]

I was called a pedant on this forum for asking why we're calling it a vaccine when it seems not to act as such.

Do you have a link to that? I'm not really sure what you are saying.

The vaccines are highly effective (much more so than influenza vaccines).

Vaccine efficacy deniers spreading misinformation, fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about the effectiveness of vaccines in order to justify more restrictions, is not a valid reason to delay unlocking.

 

[initiation]

I know people say don't believe the polls but YouGov reporting 53% of people supporting restrictions beyond 21/06. If that is the sort of information the Gov are getting (ignoring how accurate it is), they will not feel pressured to unlock.


Feeling very depressed about this. I had really hoped we were drawing a line in the sand but it seems not. I am now 60% sure we will have some sort of restrictions this winter.

 

[Jim the Jim]

This morning we have some papers saying two weeks and some saying four weeks delay.

The article I read last night said one thing in the headline and the other in the text!

 

[102 fan]

Do you have a link to that? I'm not really sure what you are saying.

The vaccines are highly effective (much more so than influenza vaccines).

Vaccine efficacy deniers spreading misinformation, fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about the effectiveness of vaccines in order to justify more restrictions, is not a valid reason to delay unlocking.

I said that continuing with restrictions and social distancing for those with both doses is the same as wearing a condom after a vasectomy. I don't doubt the effectiveness of the vaccine, it seems the scientists and politicians do. Why?

 

[NorthOxonian]

I know people say don't believe the polls but YouGov reporting 53% of people supporting restrictions beyond 21/06. If that is the sort of information the Gov are getting (ignoring how accurate it is), they will not feel pressured to unlock.


Feeling very depressed about this. I had really hoped we were drawing a line in the sand but it seems not. I am now 60% sure we will have some sort of restrictions this winter.

The difficulty is that we don't know what YouGov mean by "restrictions". Does that mean 53% of people want us to continue as now, or 53% of people are fine with some restrictions continuing but may still want the easing to go ahead? That ambiguity is quite important in trying to work out where public opinion is.

For example, someone I follow on Twitter (for unrelated reasons) ran a poll about the easing last week, and the results he got illustrate this well. 35% of his followers wanted all restrictions gone, 32% wanted most restrictions gone but some kept for a little longer, 28% wanted the easing postponed, and 5% wanted old restrictions brought back. Depending on how you look at things, either 65% of people want restrictions beyond the 21st or 67% want the easing to go ahead.

 

[J-2739]

I know people say don't believe the polls but YouGov reporting 53% of people supporting restrictions beyond 21/06. If that is the sort of information the Gov are getting (ignoring how accurate it is), they will not feel pressured to unlock.


Feeling very depressed about this. I had really hoped we were drawing a line in the sand but it seems not. I am now 60% sure we will have some sort of restrictions this winter.

Even 53% does not seem like a very strong support for restrictions continuing.

 

[Bantamzen]

Meanwhile in the US the lateral flow tests that form the backbone of the UK's T&T is being withdrawn at the behest of the Federal Health Agency, due to concerns that they are inaccurate.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

The US has told its citizens to stop using a lateral flow Covid-19 test (LFT) favoured by the British government due to concerns about its performance.

The Innova Sars-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test is a main pillar of the UK’s test and trace system, with more than a billion tests supplied so far in contracts worth around £3bn.. As a result, Innova, a US diagnostics firm, recently announced that it is ramping up its UK operations by opening a factory in Wales, which will produce millions of its LFTs per day. However, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has called the test’s reliability into question, telling people to stop using it. “The FDA has significant concerns that the performance of the test has not been adequately established, presenting a risk to health,” it said in a statement released on Thursday.

Worse still the NHS were aware that as much as 98% of results could be inaccurate months ago.

Rapid Covid testing in England may be scaled back over false positives

Exclusive: In leaked emails, Matt Hancock’s adviser says there is ‘urgent need for decisions’ on asymptomatic testing

www.theguardian.com

Senior government officials have raised “urgent” concerns about the mass expansion of rapid coronavirus testing, estimating that as few as 2% to 10% of positive results may be accurate in places with low Covid rates, such as London.
Boris Johnson last week urged everyone in England to take two rapid-turnaround tests a week in the biggest expansion of the multibillion-pound testing programme to date.
However, leaked emails seen by the Guardian show that senior officials are now considering scaling back the widespread testing of people without symptoms, due to a growing number of false positives.

I am rapidly arriving at the conclusion that restrictions are not there for the good of our health, but to cover up what might turn out to be the biggest flustercluck in the history of this country. Perhaps we are really protecting those politicians and experts who know they would be in the firing line of any independent inquiry, hence their ever increasing panic.

 

[Whistler40145]

In my opinion, if it was down to SAGE, we would never come out of complete lockdown

 

[35B]

This morning we have some papers saying two weeks and some saying four weeks delay. The perk is that after doing some quick research the view does seem to be fairly unanimous that any delay shouldn’t be more than four weeks, as you then push the hospital admissions peak into Autumn when hospitals normally start getting busier.

If I’m being realistic as much as I’d like two weeks, I just can’t see it happening. Although it is all moot if they still don’t remove social distancing.

Today's Times suggests its still open, but leaning towards 4 weeks.