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South & East Rail Group Notes on Meeting with "DfT/Treasury Friends"

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Brissle Girl

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From Twitter. I won't pass any comment on any of the individual points made, but it's a very depressing picture.


Had lunch today with DfT/Treasury friends. Will tweet the highlights tomorrow. Plenty of sympathy for Raab - not!!! Lots about rail and TSC performance and upcoming PAC. Frankly depressing all round.

Feedback from my Friday lunch with DfT/Treasury friends. I won’t waste space on Raab. You can all use your imaginations. HS2 and TSC. Performance of Minister considered a disaster but indicative of totally hostile attitude to HS2 and rail in general.

Perm Sec obliged to follow Ministerial lead but obviously unhappy. Euston decision a complete disaster and based on no consideration of cost BUT DfT ministers aware of consequences and quite prepared to, if not enthusiastic about ditching entire project.

DfT ministers in conjunction with Treasury looking at scaling back or ditching NPR and EWR. Electrification dead and looking if MML project can be stopped. Rolling stock strategy (laughter at this point) in total disarray. Ministers content for 701s to lay idle.

Ministers unconcerned about future use of class 379s. Infrastructure budget to be cut back as much as possible. Treasury pushing for next years fares rise to be equal to rate of inflation.

DfT ministers perversely resent success of Rail Freight and are looking for ways to boost road freight including incentives to draw business away from rail.

Overall my impression is a hardening of ministerial views in DfT and Treasury against all forms of public transport. Finally nobody is looking forward to PAC.
 
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zwk500

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None of this is a particular surprise, of course. Rail policy was being changed interview by interview at one point - the government have got far larger piles of manure to extricate themselves from that rail is simply not a concern for them.
 

yorksrob

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There will be no improvement until this Government is flushed into the cess-pool of history where it belongs.
 

JonathanH

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There will be no improvement until this Government is flushed into the cess-pool of history where it belongs.
A true statement. Unfortunately there might not be an improvement afterwards either.
 

moley

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There will be no improvement until this Government is flushed into the cess-pool of history where it belongs.
Why? Does the next government have a magic money tree to make things better?

Surely the next government will largely be stuck with the current lack of money and lamentable policies until such time as the economy takes a leap up.
 

zwk500

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A true statement. Unfortunately there might not be an improvement afterwards either.
Indeed. the industry (and, tbh, the economy) need structural reforms to make them fit for the challenges the country is facing.

Number 1 would be to designate everywhere within a 15 minute walk of a train station 'open season' for developing as many flats as possible. This will enable lots of homes to be built, so people can actually buy a house, as well as providing millions of potential passengers to the railway.
 

zwk500

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Yes. I agree.

However, as the previous poster said there won't me a magic source of money for the incoming government to make improvements.
We're a long way from the macro economic practicalities of issuing too many gilts, to be honest. There's room for a fair increase in Capex on the railway, if politicians want there to be.
 

yorksrob

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Why? Does the next government have a magic money tree to make things better?

Surely the next government will largely be stuck with the current lack of money and lamentable policies until such time as the economy takes a leap up.

Choices, choices. It's all political choices.

As a previous poster has said, the next lot could be as bad - but we don't know.

We know that nothing will improve under the current lot. They have demonstrated their views already.
 

JonathanH

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Number 1 would be to designate everywhere within a 15 minute walk of a train station 'open season' for developing as many flats as possible.
Isn't that already happening? Places like Lewisham have changed out of all recognition with the number of flats built. Do people actually want to live in them?

This will enable lots of homes to be built, so people can actually buy a house, as well as providing millions of potential passengers to the railway.
Life isn't just about commuting to work though.
 

Towers

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Just idle curiosity, but assuming the tweeter is, for obvious reasons, very much anonymous, is it entirely certain that this stuff is a true and reliable account? I can’t fathom why a Gvmnt who are setting ambitious targets on outlawing ICE car sales would resent rail freight and actively want more lorries on the road network, that seems to make very little sense? The rest of it is entirely believable, regretfully.
 

JonathanH

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As a previous poster has said, the next lot could be as bad - but we don't know.
Not quite what has been said. More that they will want to be better but find that lots of things need investment and there are still choices to make.
 

zwk500

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Isn't that already happening? Places like Lewisham have changed out of all recognition with the number of flats built. Do people actually want to live in them?
It isn't just about London. People want to live in London so build away all you can there, but also build around rural and suburban stations with room for expansion or densification. The UK housing market is so monumentally stuffed at the moment that people are letting Estate agents and landlords get away with completely illegal practices because there's no other way of getting a house.
A massive housebuilding programme of every type of house is the only way to defeat the profiteering, Rachmanism, price gouging, slumlordness, etc - because the market only works for consumers when Supply is ahead of demand.
Life isn't just about commuting to work though.
Absolutely, and that's why people being within walking distance of a station so they can go into town for a meal, drinks, the cinema, the theatre, football/rugby/etc, or to go on holiday is just as important as commuting.
 

yorksrob

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Not quite what has been said. More that they will want to be better but find that lots of things need investment and there are still choices to make.

I'm saying it.

We don't know what a future government will bring, but the current Government has already demonstrated its incompetence with the railway, so the sooner we're rid, the better
 

zwk500

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Just idle curiosity, but assuming the tweeter is, for obvious reasons, very much anonymous, is it entirely certain that this stuff is a true and reliable account? I can’t fathom why a Gvmnt who are setting ambitious targets on outlawing ICE car sales would resent rail freight and actively want more lorries on the road network, that seems to make very little sense? The rest of it is entirely believable, regretfully.
Because the UK has a car manufacturing industry and road-based haulage companies who are rather important to the current government's economic hopes.
 

Jammy Dodger

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From Twitter. I won't pass any comment on any of the individual points made, but it's a very depressing picture.

Whilst not surprising, this is a very disheartening, bleak and damaging picture. As a country which has lacked significant investment in rail/public transport for 70 years (under both parties I might add), this is an overwhelming leap backwards. Rail runs this country, and if it's ditched we will grind to a halt (socially and economically). My thoughts broken down by each tweet below:

- Scrapping HS2 would eclipse Beeching as the worst piece of transport legislation in British history, even ignoring the fact that we are now over 1/4th into construction into a project that should have been delivered 40 years ago, along with an evolved APT. Euston delay was never about direct cost, more pushing the "problem" on to the (assumed) next govt. If the project wasn't so mismanaged, along with constant moving of the goalposts from the start, it would be far cheaper!

- I wouldn't be surprised if NPR is ditched - sorry for you who live in the north, TRU will likely be the best you get! Oxford - Bedford for EWR is well over 2/3rds complete, so scrapping that would be even more deluded! Pretty sure any decent plan for electrification was scrapped when EWR never got it in the first place! Despite the announcement being (possibly) weeks away, I'd expect EWR to Cambridge to never be built (under the current govt). 701's will eventually enter service once Alstom fixes their software problems (reportedly 2H23).

- Having used them for many years, the 379's are damn good trains, never made sense to scrap them in the first place. They will likely sit in cold storage for the next 10 years, rust away, and then be scrapped. What a shame. Not surprised about no further infrastructure investment, just follows the trend for the last few years! No surprise on fares, milking us for all we are worth, then giving it to their friends, TOC and ROSCO shareholders!

- Dumb, just very dumb. Why get rid of such a successful industry, which also has such a significant scope for expansion! Oh wait...

- Not overall surprising given govt position on logical investment and rational thinking. What's PAC?

Whilst it won't have a direct impact, we have an opportunity in 2 weeks to indicate how pleased we are with this (along with other major issues). Guess I know how I'll be voting...
 

Bletchleyite

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Scaling back EWR would presumably mean dropping the most expensive bit - the entirely new line from Bedford to Cambridge. And presumably Aylesbury never happening.
 

yorksrob

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Whilst not surprising, this is a very disheartening, bleak and damaging picture. As a country which has lacked significant investment in rail/public transport for 70 years (under both parties I might add), this is an overwhelming leap backwards. Rail runs this country, and if it's ditched we will grind to a halt (socially and economically). My thoughts broken down by each tweet below:

- Scrapping HS2 would eclipse Beeching as the worst piece of transport legislation in British history, even ignoring the fact that we are now over 1/4th into construction into a project that should have been delivered 40 years ago, along with an evolved APT. Euston delay was never about direct cost, more pushing the "problem" on to the (assumed) next govt. If the project wasn't so mismanaged, along with constant moving of the goalposts from the start, it would be far cheaper!

- I wouldn't be surprised if NPR is ditched - sorry for you who live in the north, TRU will likely be the best you get! Oxford - Bedford for EWR is well over 2/3rds complete, so scrapping that would be even more deluded! Pretty sure any decent plan for electrification was scrapped when EWR never got it in the first place! Despite the announcement being (possibly) weeks away, I'd expect EWR to Cambridge to never be built (under the current govt). 701's will eventually enter service once Alstom fixes their software problems (reportedly 2H23).

- Having used them for many years, the 379's are damn good trains, never made sense to scrap them in the first place. They will likely sit in cold storage for the next 10 years, rust away, and then be scrapped. What a shame. Not surprised about no further infrastructure investment, just follows the trend for the last few years! No surprise on fares, milking us for all we are worth, then giving it to their friends, TOC and ROSCO shareholders!

- Dumb, just very dumb. Why get rid of such a successful industry, which also has such a significant scope for expansion! Oh wait...

- Not overall surprising given govt position on logical investment and rational thinking. What's PAC?

Whilst it won't have a direct impact, we have an opportunity in 2 weeks to indicate how pleased we are with this (along with other major issues). Guess I know how I'll be voting...

This is a forward thinking post.

My view is why are they scrapping fleets without replacement that could maintain the railway service now?

It's all very well dealing with construction projects, but why are they allowed to destroy the existing service now ?
 

zwk500

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This is a forward thinking post.

My view is why are they scrapping fleets without replacement that could maintain the railway service now?

It's all very well dealing with construction projects, but why are they allowed to destroy the existing service now ?
Because of the ideological view of this government towards running an operational deficit in the government's budget.
 

Jammy Dodger

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This is a forward thinking post.

My view is why are they scrapping fleets without replacement that could maintain the railway service now?

It's all very well dealing with construction projects, but why are they allowed to destroy the existing service now ?
Thanks! Due to reasons I don't wish to elaborate on, generally when I state a view that is against someone else's, I get told to shut up! Just because someone has a different view to yours, doesn't make it false or any less valid!

Unfortunately, we've seen many examples of irrational decision making over the last few years (not just in regards to rail) that leads me to believe that regardless who's at the top, they are all completely bloody inept!
 

philosopher

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Why? Does the next government have a magic money tree to make things better?

Surely the next government will largely be stuck with the current lack of money and lamentable policies until such time as the economy takes a leap up.
While I agree government finances are pretty rubbish at the moment, I think the concern from this tweeter is that the current government is favouring road and aviation at the expense of rail. Hence the tweeter highlights how they are encouraging road freight at the expense of rail freight.

Witness the cut in domestic aviation duty and the freezing of road fuel duty. Despite poor government finances, the government has found money to do both these things. Freezing of road duty I can sort of get, given high fuel taxes have caused protests in the past.

However the cut in domestic aviation duty really does not seem a sensible policy. Although the cost to the government is likely low, it still represents money that could spent on the elsewhere, such as the railways. The cut contradicts net zero CO2 goals, as you are encouraging the growth of a very high CO2 emission form of transport. Finally it is unlikely anyone is going to kick up too much of fuss if domestic aviation duties were left unchanged or even increased, aviation bosses would make a bit of moan, but that would probably be it.
 
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zwk500

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It's not a series of Tweets, it's the notes taken at a meeting.
It's not though is it, it's a single civil servant venting at lunch. It's that individual's feeling, which is very different from notes/minutes.

Mind you the press wouldn't care either way because the only time rail stories matter is when Journalist's season tickets go up or the train they get to work is cancelled.
 

najaB

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It's not though is it, it's a single civil servant venting at lunch. It's that individual's feeling, which is very different from notes/minutes.
I meant the notes taken at the lunch meeting.
 

Meerkat

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I meant the notes taken at the lunch meeting.
It isn't actually notes taken, and it wasn't a lunch meeting by the way I read it.
Its someone meeting a load of their mates who work in those departments for lunch, probably involving booze and much moaning.
If they have any idea that this person is broadcasting what they say on social media then it is probably targetted and then filtered further by the writer.
Sounds like all the 'informed sources' leaks that politicians do when they want to create a stir for their side of an argument.
 

zwk500

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It isn't actually notes taken, and it wasn't a lunch meeting by the way I read it.
Its someone meeting a load of their mates who work in those departments for lunch, probably involving booze and much moaning.
If they have any idea that this person is broadcasting what they say on social media then it is probably targetted and then filtered further by the writer.
Sounds like all the 'informed sources' leaks that politicians do when they want to create a stir for their side of an argument.
Very definitely both people knew exactly who they were meeting and for what purpose. I suspect it was just 2 old friends sitting down for lunch together, rather than a group drinks after work.
 
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