Speculation: East Yorkshire to launch competition on York - Selby route?

[dodecahedron67]

Mod note: Posts #1-12 have been split from this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/east-yorkshire-motor-services-now-part-of-go-ahead.166011/

East Yorkshire have reportedly poached the most recent FirstYork Ops Manager to further their expansion into York.

Rumour mill saying that as a result EY will be introducing a competing service to the 415 on the York to Selby market in the summer. I know for a fact this was something that he wanted to introduce at FirstYork

 

[WAB]

Rumour mill saying that as a result EY will be introducing a competing service to the 415 on the York to Selby market in the summer. I know for a fact this was something that he wanted to introduce at FirstYork

Now this is very interesting. Given the possible loss of Arriva's West Yorkshire ops under franchising, their Selby operation looks very vulnerable as it has already been cut to the bone. The 415 is the premium route - I suppose the thinking for EY would be that competition on Arriva Selby's only decent route would make Arriva pull out, gifting EY a trunk route plus a motley collection of subsidised/low PVR routes. Something to watch.

 

[Eyersey468]

Now this is very interesting. Given the possible loss of Arriva's West Yorkshire ops under franchising, their Selby operation looks very vulnerable as it has already been cut to the bone. The 415 is the premium route - I suppose the thinking for EY would be that competition on Arriva Selby's only decent route would make Arriva pull out, gifting EY a trunk route plus a motley collection of subsidised/low PVR routes. Something to watch.

There has been no official announcement about it though and I've heard no rumours about it

 

[stevieinselby]

Now this is very interesting. Given the possible loss of Arriva's West Yorkshire ops under franchising, their Selby operation looks very vulnerable as it has already been cut to the bone. The 415 is the premium route - I suppose the thinking for EY would be that competition on Arriva Selby's only decent route would make Arriva pull out, gifting EY a trunk route plus a motley collection of subsidised/low PVR routes. Something to watch.

I would be very surprised if East Yorkshire were going to mount head-to-head competition on the route – that doesn't seem to be their modus operandi, I can't think of any other occasion in recent years where they have done that – or frankly any interurban route where any operator has done that successfully. Arriva are a well established operator in Selby and have been running the 415 since time immemorial, and old habits die hard. While the buses Arriva use are a bit tired now at nearly 15 years old, and it looks like their plans to put new electrics on the route won't come to fruit any time soon, East Yorkshire would need to be prepared to bankroll a high-quality loss-making service for a good couple of years in order to drive Arriva away. And while I would be very happy to see the 415 under the new North Riding brand with buses to the same spec as the X46, I'm not convinced it's likely to happen.

 

[Eyersey468]

I would be very surprised if East Yorkshire were going to mount head-to-head competition on the route – that doesn't seem to be their modus operandi, I can't think of any other occasion in recent years where they have done that – or frankly any interurban route where any operator has done that successfully. Arriva are a well established operator in Selby and have been running the 415 since time immemorial, and old habits die hard. While the buses Arriva use are a bit tired now at nearly 15 years old, and it looks like their plans to put new electrics on the route won't come to fruit any time soon, East Yorkshire would need to be prepared to bankroll a high-quality loss-making service for a good couple of years in order to drive Arriva away. And while I would be very happy to see the 415 under the new North Riding brand with buses to the same spec as the X46, I'm not convinced it's likely to happen.

I don't know the origins of the rumour but I can't see it happening either

 

[M803UYA]

I would be very surprised if East Yorkshire were going to mount head-to-head competition on the route – that doesn't seem to be their modus operandi, I can't think of any other occasion in recent years where they have done that – or frankly any interurban route where any operator has done that successfully. Arriva are a well established operator in Selby and have been running the 415 since time immemorial, and old habits die hard. While the buses Arriva use are a bit tired now at nearly 15 years old, and it looks like their plans to put new electrics on the route won't come to fruit any time soon, East Yorkshire would need to be prepared to bankroll a high-quality loss-making service for a good couple of years in order to drive Arriva away. And while I would be very happy to see the 415 under the new North Riding brand with buses to the same spec as the X46, I'm not convinced it's likely to happen.

It'd only take a couple of years to achieve it - Selby depot is marginal hence why it operates the 51 into Doncaster. Even being present on the 415 would affect the economics of the depot to the point it'd be shut down. East Yorkshire run into Goole and have the old Thornes route into Selby - so it's not a big leap to run a skimming service along the 415 with single deckers 7am-7pm. This would be enough to close the depot thanks to a minimal loss of revenue.

More likely is some sort of sale of the depot and it's operations? You could presumably find some functioning buses from somewhere and then there's a ready team of drivers and engineers and once you remove the grass from the guttering at the depot, proper roof drainage too?!

 

[stevieinselby]

It'd only take a couple of years to achieve it - Selby depot is marginal hence why it operates the 51 into Doncaster. Even being present on the 415 would affect the economics of the depot to the point it'd be shut down. East Yorkshire run into Goole and have the old Thornes route into Selby - so it's not a big leap to run a skimming service along the 415 with single deckers 7am-7pm. This would be enough to close the depot thanks to a minimal loss of revenue.

More likely is some sort of sale of the depot and it's operations? You could presumably find some functioning buses from somewhere and then there's a ready team of drivers and engineers and once you remove the grass from the guttering at the depot, proper roof drainage too?!

If it's that marginal that Arriva would give it up without too much of a fight, why do you think it would be worth East Yorkshire fighting them for it?

 

[WAB]

If it's that marginal that Arriva would give it up without too much of a fight, why do you think it would be worth East Yorkshire fighting them for it?

They’ve cut the salaries and engineering provision at Selby, and it probably benefits from economies of scale with the rest of Arriva Yorkshire which may not exist in a few years time. An expansionist EY with clear ambitions in the York area and under pressure from the Go Ahead group to achieve growth in what is decidedly mixed territory may see it as worthwhile, especially as it will be on their new turf. The culture at EY HQ may be better suited to promoting the Selby network than Arriva HQ.

The Selby boards are approximately as follows:

415 - 8 boards, substantial evening and Sunday service
51 - 2 boards (plus peak crosslinks), limited evening and Sunday service
42 - 3 boards
401 - 2 boards, limited Sunday service
476 - 3 boards, under threat from franchising
8 - 3 boards, limited
5 - crosslinked
408 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
409 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
493 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
64 - 2 boards, under threat from franchising

plus some school routes

So 45% of boards (most of which run for longer and on Sundays) are on the 415. Can't say too much without seeing the commercial figures, but that seems to me to be attractive to EY and propping up the rest of the Arriva operation.

Here is a map, for context, showing EY's existing territory in dark orange, and in light orange its current expansion. The Arriva Selby routes are shown in teal. Shows that Selby is a logical area for EY's expansion.

 

[Andyh82]

I’ll believe it when I see it. When was the last time anyone started a competitive service in this day and age

 

[Steve440]

To be honest, I've thought for a while that Arriva would attempt to sell their Selby depot. I had thought that Transdev might be interested but in the light of East Yorkshire's expansion I think that's unlikely.

 

[M803UYA]

If it's that marginal that Arriva would give it up without too much of a fight, why do you think it would be worth East Yorkshire fighting them for it?

I don't but @dodecahedron67 knows the manager who has moved to East Yorkshire - hence why I consider it fairly credible. He is careful in what he posts usually.

It's a surmation until it becomes reality?! I might be wrong.

The fleet Arriva uses in Selby is in fairly poor external condition, and that's being polite. I observe daily breakdowns and I see buses with missing parts of branding, multiple liveries and faded paintwork in abundance. The disease carries over to other Arriva Yorkshire operations - a careworn fleet which looks ready for a one way trip to Boulder Bridge Lane in Carlton. When your buses on your best route run around with half their branding for that route missing thanks to panel replacement and they're 15 years old.... it says much about the dire straits the operation is in.

I’ll believe it when I see it. When was the last time anyone started a competitive service in this day and age

Phil Anslow have started up some new routes in Cwmbran after Stagecoach took tenders off them....

 

[Parebunks]

I’ll believe it when I see it. When was the last time anyone started a competitive service in this day and age

It's been happening a lot against Arriva down in Buckinghamshire, although the situation with their operations is perhaps even more dire than Selby seems to be. And the competition has come from the Red Group of local independents, rather than the Go-Ahead subsidiary Carousel, although they seem less well resourced than EYMS.
I found Arriva's positive statement on West Yorkshire franchising very interesting, suspect Selby may not be a priority if they want to focus on keeping the West Yorks operations. Yet to actually try EYMS, but their expansion is certainly interesting, will see if I can sample their routes next time I'm in Yorkshire.

 

[AlastairFraser]

More likely is some sort of sale of the depot and it's operations? You could presumably find some functioning buses from somewhere and then there's a ready team of drivers and engineers and once you remove the grass from the guttering at the depot, proper roof drainage too?!

Maybe they could use some of the drivers to work on York and Selby operations and help build their operations there.

 

[YorkRailFan]

To be honest, I've thought for a while that Arriva would attempt to sell their Selby depot. I had thought that Transdev might be interested but in the light of East Yorkshire's expansion I think that's unlikely.

Transdev already handed the 42 (York-Selby via Cawood) to Arriva in the mid to late 2010's.

 

[mikeg]

I'm a Selby to York commuter, who works mostly late shifts and holds an Arriva subscription through the Employer Travel Club. It may surprise you (or may not) to learn that I'm dead against this. Not because Arriva are a good company, they're middling at best (though bloody fantastic compared to the operators in my native Thirsk), but because of the destructive effect competition could have.

We need more integration, not less and if this undermines the Arriva Selby depot, it would be disastrous for other bus services in the area. Not to mention they do a good job of running early til late, which I'm very much dependent on to get into and back from work.

Unless someone else was willing to truly invest in Selby, rather than to just skim the cream, I fear this could mean worse bus services in the long term for the area, as per Hotelling's law, the focus would be solely on Selby to York and then likely only at the most profitable times, neither of which are good for investment in secondary routes (my most local route is also to York, the 42 stops right outside my flat and often can be handy for the way there, and it's good to have a free trip out to Leeds on days off) or unusual times.

This, coupled with North Yorkshire Council's lack of will to subsidise decent journey provisions, I fear for the future.

Sometimes a monopoly works and there's already competition with the railways (which offer a superior journey time at a price, but stop in the wrong part of York for me to take advantage of this.)

If EYMS were to buy the depot of Arriva and take over their operations, I wouldn't be against that, but this shows why deregulation can lead to worse services.

 

[dodecahedron67]

cough

https://x.com/tomdonyork/status/1777279735564849562

#Day1 at @EYBuses!
Really delighted to be joining this forward thinking, passionate team.

As Operations Manager I’m excited to lead this county wide high performing team of drivers, supervisors and managers!

I maybe based in Hull but I will always be available our people.

cough

 

[1D53]

He's ex-railway so interesting he wants to compete with it now!

 

[WAB]

I found Arriva's positive statement on West Yorkshire franchising very interesting, suspect Selby may not be a priority if they want to focus on keeping the West Yorks operations. Yet to actually try EYMS, but their expansion is certainly interesting, will see if I can sample their routes next time I'm in Yorkshire.

Depends how successful they are in franchising. In the event of not winning any franchises in West Yorkshire, the nearest Arriva operating areas will be the coast road from Scarborough to Teeside, Derby, and Merseyside. Therefore a lot of the fixed costs such as management, admin, maintenance and spares would be solely down to Selby.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I think people are getting a little ahead of themselves when talking about the impact of franchising, Arriva selling depots etc. That will be years in the making.

IIRC, Selby depot was under review a few years ago, and clearly it's the 415 to York that underpins the depot. As @M803UYA says, the fleet on there for a flagship route is fairly awful and reflects the under-investment under DB. After some decent years with new vehicles (2014-7), there have been 11 new vehicles in seven years. Instead, there's been swapping out of newer vehicles for older ones in other parts of the country to meet age constraints there so they've received some real sheds - I experienced one of the ex Medway e400s and it was a heap. In defence of Selby depot, I'd say that they were usually one of the best presented Arriva depots but it's a reflection of the malaise with the empire full stop.

That said, even a 30 min headway service in competition is going to be a fairly chunky investment from anyone. Go Ahead have undertaken a few competitive incursions in the past (thinking mainly Southampton but also Cornwall) but this would be the first one for a while. More practically, I don't know how they'd operate it. It's a distance from Pocklington (and there's already enough remote working being done with the latest tender wins) or from Elloughton.

 

[YorkRailFan]

More practically, I don't know how they'd operate it. It's a distance from Pocklington (and there's already enough remote working being done with the latest tender wins) or from Elloughton.

Unless Go Ahead plans on taking over Arriva's depot in Selby of course.

 

[DazCM]

Unless that’s their game plan (assuming there is one of course). They could interwork their Goole and York operations with the 401, 415 and 42, and, given the majority of their current network, EY probably have more of an appetite for the remaining rural operations than Arriva does given the metropolitan nature of the rest of their Yorkshire business.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Unless Go Ahead plans on taking over Arriva's depot in Selby of course.

er.... my statement was about the speculation on a 30 min spoiler and how they'd run that? So how would they run that - over to you!

Unless that’s their game plan (assuming there is one of course). They could interwork their Goole and York operations with the 401, 415 and 42, and, given the majority of their current network, EY probably have more of an appetite for the remaining rural operations than Arriva does given the metropolitan nature of the rest of their Yorkshire business.

Even in the most fevered imaginations, I'd not expect them to interwork stuff with the X46/X47.

 

[stevieinselby]

Unless that’s their game plan (assuming there is one of course). They could interwork their Goole and York operations with the 401, 415 and 42, and, given the majority of their current network, EY probably have more of an appetite for the remaining rural operations than Arriva does given the metropolitan nature of the rest of their Yorkshire business.

Why would they want to interwork anything? The routes work perfectly well as stand-alone services, and interworking just increases the risk of unreliability as well as adding complications to scheduling and making it more difficult to adjust timetables later on. In particular, the severe limitations on what vehicles can be used on the 42 really restricts the scope for interworking off that route.

 

[johnny_t]

Whilst the 415 (roughly) goes up the A19 and serves village to the West of it, such as Riccall and Barlby, there are a number of places not far to the East of the A19 that are either unserved (Osgodby, Cliffe, Hemingbrough) or poorly served (North Duffield) by bus services. A route that took in those would be great.

 

[Fox192]

Maybe they could extend the route to goole, for people that want to go to York

 

[peterblue]

They’ve cut the salaries and engineering provision at Selby, and it probably benefits from economies of scale with the rest of Arriva Yorkshire which may not exist in a few years time. An expansionist EY with clear ambitions in the York area and under pressure from the Go Ahead group to achieve growth in what is decidedly mixed territory may see it as worthwhile, especially as it will be on their new turf. The culture at EY HQ may be better suited to promoting the Selby network than Arriva HQ.

The Selby boards are approximately as follows:

415 - 8 boards, substantial evening and Sunday service
51 - 2 boards (plus peak crosslinks), limited evening and Sunday service
42 - 3 boards
401 - 2 boards, limited Sunday service
476 - 3 boards, under threat from franchising
8 - 3 boards, limited
5 - crosslinked
408 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
409 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
493 - crosslinked, under threat from franchising
64 - 2 boards, under threat from franchising

plus some school routes

So 45% of boards (most of which run for longer and on Sundays) are on the 415. Can't say too much without seeing the commercial figures, but that seems to me to be attractive to EY and propping up the rest of the Arriva operation.

Here is a map, for context, showing EY's existing territory in dark orange, and in light orange its current expansion. The Arriva Selby routes are shown in teal. Shows that Selby is a logical area for EY's expansion.

It would be a logical area for expansion, and aside from the 415 route, Selby depot is fairly unappealing marginal stuff. I agree it would fit better into the wider EY network.

I can't see EY launching a competitive route though, certainly not in this day and age. I would find it more plausible to believe that EY would directly approach Arriva in Selby with a buyout offer.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Maybe they could extend the route to goole, for people that want to go to York

It used to with the hourly services from Goole, Leeds and Doncaster (401, 402, 405) combining at Selby to provide a 20 min headway. Suspect the risk of unreliability from York's congestion is greater than anyone who wants to travel from Goole

 

[stevieinselby]

Whilst the 415 (roughly) goes up the A19 and serves village to the West of it, such as Riccall and Barlby, there are a number of places not far to the East of the A19 that are either unserved (Osgodby, Cliffe, Hemingbrough) or poorly served (North Duffield) by bus services. A route that took in those would be great.

If you wanted to combine the 4A and part of the 18 to run from Selby to Osgodby, Cliffe and Hemingbrough, then loop round Hemingbrough and come back to North Duffield, Skipwith, Thorganby and Wheldrake, you would be looking at a journey time from Selby to York of well over an hour, making it 20–30 minutes slower than the 415. Not a chance that a route like that would be viable, nobody would use it to get from Selby to York, and the number of people wanting to travel from the other villages would be nowhere near enough to sustain the service (even if it superseded the 4A, it is still duplicating much of the 18).

Maybe they could extend the route to goole, for people that want to go to York

What would be the gain? You would need to allow a bit of time for layover in Selby, so Goole—York passengers would still be travelling exactly the same route as they do now, just saving a few minutes on not having to change bus at an adjacent stand at the bus station. I guess it means you aren't going to risk missing your connection, especially on the way back to Goole, but that minor benefit for the small number of people wanting to make that journey and spend 1h40 in transit is dwarfed by the loss of flexibility and the increased risk of unreliability on the Selby—Goole service. Passengers travelling between Snaith and Goole are going to be pretty cheesed off if their usual punctual service suddenly goes down the tubes because buses are getting snarled up 25 miles away on Fulford Road.

 

[Eyersey468]

Whilst the 415 (roughly) goes up the A19 and serves village to the West of it, such as Riccall and Barlby, there are a number of places not far to the East of the A19 that are either unserved (Osgodby, Cliffe, Hemingbrough) or poorly served (North Duffield) by bus services. A route that took in those would be great.

I can't see a route raking in those villages being viable unfortunately, I doubt enough people would use it

 

[317 forever]

It would be a logical area for expansion, and aside from the 415 route, Selby depot is fairly unappealing marginal stuff. I agree it would fit better into the wider EY network.

I can't see EY launching a competitive route though, certainly not in this day and age. I would find it more plausible to believe that EY would directly approach Arriva in Selby with a buyout offer.

As Selby is east of Leeds, I think it could be a good fit with East Yorkshire and could even be sold to Go-Ahead, especially if Arriva lose nearby services in West Yorkshire through franchising.