Tavistock Re-opening News

[Brush 4]

An imminent decision, apparently......

Rail decision for Tavistock to Plymouth 'imminent' from Department for Transport

An announcement from the Department for Transport regarding the reinstatement of the former railway line between Tavistock and Bere Alston has been described as “imminent” by the county councillor for transport.

www.tavistock-today.co.uk

So, bets are open. No chance because of DfT micro management and cost cutting obsession or:-
Yes, because a General Election is coming and the Gov want good news stories to make them look good.

There are other non cynical possibilities but, politicians don't do non cynical.

 

[Brissle Girl]

Would this be a decision to build, or to release funding for yet another iteration of investigation/feasibility study, which often seems to be the way with any reopening proposal?

 

[DDB]

I'm going to guess it will be a problem for the government as I suspect the business case might be quite good as it looks cheap (for a rail scheme!) as they have gone for a station at the end of the existing unobstructed trackbed without any obvious civil engineering problems rather than try and reclaim the old viaduct through the town. However the old viaduct does look (from Google maps) to provide a good traffic free cycle/ walking route into the town centre.

The service connects places people want to travel between so I would expect decent passenger numbers.

I therfore suspect it will come put with a good cost benefit ratio which will be a problem as the government doesn't want to spend the cash in general and has also has spent a lot on trains in the area (Oakhampton and Cornish Metro) Therfore I think they will try and kick it into the long grass somehow with more studies.

 

[mrcheek]

I suspect the government will find a way to say "Yes, but", or "Maybe". They wont want to say no, but little chance they will want to put any money up either. A two year delay and it becomes another government's problem....

 

[A0wen]

Would this be a decision to build, or to release funding for yet another iteration of investigation/feasibility study, which often seems to be the way with any reopening proposal?

I think a bit less conspiracy theory is needed - there's an established process all reopenings go through, it's not a case of "do another study" just to delay things.

@Bald Rick - I know you've posted on the process before, but I can't find the post in question - can you remind us all how it works and if you know where Tavistock is in the process.

 

[stuu]

If the decision is anything other than "no" or "this needs a further study" I will eat several large hats

 

[Brissle Girl]

I think a bit less conspiracy theory is needed - there's an established process all reopenings go through, it's not a case of "do another study" just to delay things.

Maybe you’ve not been following the Portishead reopening saga as closely as I have.

 

[30907]

"An announcement on successful bids over the summer" from the DfT is as non-committal as can be expected - though it does imply there will be one or more somewhere between Penzance and Berwick-upon-Tweed

 

[zwk500]

I think a bit less conspiracy theory is needed - there's an established process all reopenings go through, it's not a case of "do another study" just to delay things.

'Do another study' is not to delay things, it's because you know it's not got a case but politically you can't kill it.

My money would be on 'further developing the business case' which is about the difference between Yes, Minister's 'considering the matter' and 'actively considering the matter'.

 

[Snow1964]

The whole Restoring your Railway has gone quiet

There we're a few submissions with extra detail due by about 9 months ago, but most have been sitting at DfT for over a year.

Oakhampton went well (could argue too well for the token quantity of stock allocated), not lot of reason why Tavistock wouldn't be similar.

What many who live in cities often forget where they have lots of choice, is many rural parts only have big shops in big cities and towns, and can be sparce so need to travel is greater for basic commodities. There are branches of some chains where just 2 stores (Plymouth or Exeter) cover whole of Somerset, Devon and Cornwall.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

The submission is for £3m for the next stage in the interminable process. Unfortunately Tavistock is in a very safe seat unless there is a complete Tory meltdown.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think a bit less conspiracy theory is needed - there's an established process all reopenings go through, it's not a case of "do another study" just to delay things.

@Bald Rick - I know you've posted on the process before, but I can't find the post in question - can you remind us all how it works and if you know where Tavistock is in the process.

There is a 3 stage process for evaluating the costs and benefits (and many other things) in a business case

The first of those stages (Strategic Outline Business Case, SOBC) is done with relatively little in the way of technical feasibility, ie it has a raft of assumptions regarding what needs to be built and how it might be built. There will also be assumptions about service patterns and how it interacts with the rest of the network; also assumptions about how the project would be managed, contracted and financed.

The second stage (Outline Business Case, OBC) goes into much more detail on all these issues, will include detailed technical feasibility, plus detailed demand assessment, timetable studies, and in the event that primary consents are required some public consultation on the impact of the proposal including construction. That of course also means that someone has to be engaged to work out how the thing gets built. This stage also needs to properly examine alternative options to deliver similar outcomes.

The third and final stage, Full Business Case (FBC) has everything nailed down - prices from contractors, consents granted (or nearly so), all risks backed off. This is the financial go ahead for construction, although for larger projects there is a separate contractual approval required at Cabinet level.


This project has completed its SOBC, ie the first stage. I gather the case is at roughly a similar level as Borders was at the same stage, ie a marginally positive case but an awful lot of issues as yet unquantified. I have posted previously that I can’t see how this would cost less than around £150m, and I would be interested to see what the current estimate is. The project will also need a Development Consent Order - and I wonder if that has been allowed for in costs or the schedule. I bet not.

At a guess I would expect this announcement to say that the SOBC shows promise, the project is to move to the next stage but further work is required to understand alternative options, the consents process, and costs.

 

[Brush 4]

An interesting clue is right at the bottom of the article in Read More....

Damien Jones, the county council’s head of transport coordination, has previously confirmed that Network Rail began conducting “preparatory” signalling work at Bere Alston station in late 2021.

At Okehampton, physical work started in the October, with the public go-ahead announced the following March 2021 for opening in November 2021. part of the reason for the rapid reopening was that they had started preparations 4 months before the announcement. So, advance work at Bere Alston increases the likelihood of a go-ahead. It would be sloppy practice to have one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing.................oh no, it's not going to happen!

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s not ‘preparatory signalling work’; it will have been something that needed doing anyway that happens to accommodate the new line of it happens.

The need for a DCO means that this is at least 3 years away from a spade in the ground even if the case can be made.

 

[A0wen]

Oakhampton went well (could argue too well for the token quantity of stock allocated), not lot of reason why Tavistock wouldn't be similar.

There are some pretty big differences between those two, starting with Tavistock's nearest station is only 5 miles away at Gunnislake, whereas for Okehampton you were looking at Crediton or Exeter itself, both ~ 20 miles away.

 

[adamedwards]

Surely the political move is to announce reopening is going ahead (and then do so every 3 months until the election) safe in the knowledge the actual spend on building will be after the General Election? It will of course then be competing for funds with all the bits of HS2 which then need restarting at that point, so will get delayed, enabling the safe Tory MP to have something to complain about assuming Labour win. Sir Humphrey would be proud!

 

[zwk500]

Surely the political move is to announce reopening is going ahead (and then do so every 3 months until the election) safe in the knowledge the actual spend on building will be after the General Election? It will of course then be competing for funds with all the bits of HS2 which then need restarting at that point, so will get delayed, enabling the safe Tory MP to have something to complain about assuming Labour win. Sir Humphrey would be proud!

Unfortunately (depending on your POV) Whitehall is rarely so united. The S/S for Transport may well want to announce such as policy, but the Treasury will want to limit the amount of cash committed, so I would not expect full approval of the Scheme any time soon. Not least because nobody has yet given a firm price for it. The politically expedient move therefore is to commit a small amount (80-100k) for further development of the business case, so that the Treasury will allow you to do it, you demonstrate some level of commitment to the project while giving Labour the big Red/Green button to press, at which point you can hit them over the head for the inevitable decision to call the whole thing off.

 

[DDB]

There is a 3 stage process for evaluating the costs and benefits (and many other things) in a business case

The first of those stages (Strategic Outline Business Case, SOBC) is done with relatively little in the way of technical feasibility, ie it has a raft of assumptions regarding what needs to be built and how it might be built. There will also be assumptions about service patterns and how it interacts with the rest of the network; also assumptions about how the project would be managed, contracted and financed.

The second stage (Outline Business Case, OBC) goes into much more detail on all these issues, will include detailed technical feasibility, plus detailed demand assessment, timetable studies, and in the event that primary consents are required some public consultation on the impact of the proposal including construction. That of course also means that someone has to be engaged to work out how the thing gets built. This stage also needs to properly examine alternative options to deliver similar outcomes.

The third and final stage, Full Business Case (FBC) has everything nailed down - prices from contractors, consents granted (or nearly so), all risks backed off. This is the financial go ahead for construction, although for larger projects there is a separate contractual approval required at Cabinet level.


This project has completed its SOBC, ie the first stage. I gather the case is at roughly a similar level as Borders was at the same stage, ie a marginally positive case but an awful lot of issues as yet unquantified. I have posted previously that I can’t see how this would cost less than around £150m, and I would be interested to see what the current estimate is. The project will also need a Development Consent Order - and I wonder if that has been allowed for in costs or the schedule. I bet not.

At a guess I would expect this announcement to say that the SOBC shows promise, the project is to move to the next stage but further work is required to understand alternative options, the consents process, and costs.

Do you anticipate any particular (expensive) problems to be overcome or is the £150m just on a cost per mile for rail reopening?

 

[rf_ioliver]

Maybe you’ve not been following the Portishead reopening saga as closely as I have.

Wasn't Portished supposed to reopen in '98 or '99. I was following that quite closely at the time...anyway, any day now

 

[Meerkat]

Is there really any chance there is a business case if an additional unit and crew is needed to be wasted on a Bere Alston shuttle?

 

[zwk500]

Is there really any chance there is a business case if an additional unit and crew is needed to be wasted on a Bere Alston shuttle?

I believe the council's intention is for both services to go through to Plymouth, because that is how they get the revenue. However the costs of the alterations needed then pushes the BCR way down. It is part of the problem, that the capital investment needed to produce and operational situation that people actually want often sinks schemes much harder than the balance between revenue and Opex.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you anticipate any particular (expensive) problems to be overcome or is the £150m just on a cost per mile for rail reopening?

Rough cost based on current new railway projects. The costs I’ve seen are very optimistic.

Is there really any chance there is a business case if an additional unit and crew is needed to be wasted on a Bere Alston shuttle?

That’s the least of the worries about the business case!

When the next stage does an assessment of an express coach alternative, as it will have to do, it will become apparent that spending 9 figures on a railway for one train an hour that can barely beat the coach in journey time (and will be worse for generalised journey time) will be a near criminal waste of taxpayers’ money socio-economically sub-optimal.

 

[yorksrob]

Rough cost based on current new railway projects. The costs I’ve seen are very optimistic.



That’s the least of the worries about the business case!

When the next stage does an assessment of an express coach alternative, as it will have to do, it will become apparent that spending 9 figures on a railway for one train an hour that can barely beat the coach in journey time (and will be worse for generalised journey time) will be a near criminal waste of taxpayers’ money socio-economically sub-optimal.

Oh yes, the Express Coach alternative. How many of those are there running railway style frequencies. What else do they include in the assessment. Hot air baloon ?

 

[uglymonkey]

Surely the express coach will be stuck in the same traffic queue into Plymouth as all the cars are now, unless it's got a dedicated bus line throughout- which will no doubt cheer the commuters in their cars as it whizzes past.

 

[Bald Rick]

Lots, nationwide.

And that is the point. A half hourly non stop coach from central Tavistock to Plymouth station (perhaps with a call on the Tavistock Rd at Derriford for the hospital), that is linked to the national fares system (buy online or at a machine before you travel) is entirely possible.

It would provide greater benefit, for (substantially) lower operating costs, be better for the environment, and no need to spend the best part of a decade and £150m making it happen: it could be done by Christmas. You could buy the coaches, and operate them, for two years for the cost this next stage of feasibility and development is going to cost, and not charge passengers a penny.

Surely the express coach will be stuck in the same traffic queue into Plymouth as all the cars are now, unless it's got a dedicated bus line throughout- which will no doubt cheer the commuters in their cars as it whizzes past.

There is bus / coach priority already in place at the busiest areas.

The coach journey time would be a little more than the train, but only a little, even in the peak. (train would be about 32 mins from Plymouth station to a station at not quite Tavistock (and a 10-15 minute walk to the centre), the coach 40 Mins right to the centre.) Right now the road journey time from Plymouth station to Tavistock Town Hall is 29 minutes.


The issue with this project, as with so many similar, is that the problem statement appears to be:

”what do we need to do to get a railway built to X”, rather than

”what is the transport / economic problem we are trying to solve, what options are there to do that, and which offers the best value for money”

 

[RPI]

Lots, nationwide.

And that is the point. A half hourly non stop coach from central Tavistock to Plymouth station (perhaps with a call on the Tavistock Rd at Derriford for the hospital), that is linked to the national fares system (buy online or at a machine before you travel) is entirely possible.

It would provide greater benefit, for (substantially) lower operating costs, be better for the environment, and no need to spend the best part of a decade and £150m making it happen: it could be done by Christmas. You could buy the coaches, and operate them, for two years for the cost this next stage of feasibility and development is going to cost, and not charge passengers a penny.



There is bus / coach priority already in place at the busiest areas.

The coach journey time would be a little more than the train, but only a little, even in the peak. (train would be about 32 mins coach 40).


The issue with this project, as with so many similar, is that the problem statement appears to be:

”what do we need to do to get a railway built to X”, rather than

”what is the transport / economic problem we are trying to solve, what options are there to do that, and which offers the best value for money”

The Tavistock to Plymouth Road is abysmal, only 6 weeks back i caught a bus from Tavistock to Plymouth (after train Plymouth Calstock and bus Calstock Tavvy) and we ended up 15 late, that was around 1400 in the afternoon too, just relentless traffic and there aren't really any bus lanes until after derriford. From Yelverton inwards was a snails pace.

 

[Bald Rick]

The Tavistock to Plymouth Road is abysmal, only 6 weeks back i caught a bus from Tavistock to Plymouth (after train Plymouth Calstock and bus Calstock Tavvy) and we ended up 15 late, that was around 1400 in the afternoon too, just relentless traffic and there aren't really any bus lanes until after derriford. From Yelverton inwards was a snails pace.

Ok, fair enough. Right now it’s 29 minutes Plymouth to Tavi. This morning peak it was 39 minutes heading into town.

 

[RPI]

Ok, fair enough. Right now it’s 29 minutes Plymouth to Tavi. This morning peak it was 39 minutes heading into town.

The road is awful all the way, its windy and hilly and only takes a caravan or other slow vehicle and you're stuck behind it, I had driving lessons on there when I was learning to drive as my instructor wanted me to sample such an abysmal road!

 

[Bald Rick]

The road is awful all the way, its windy and hilly and only takes a caravan or other slow vehicle and you're stuck behind it, I had driving lessons on there when I was learning to drive as my instructor wanted me to sample such an abysmal road!

I’m not disagreeing. But there’s 4 buses an hour now, which stop at lots of places, so it’s not like an express coach there isn’t possible.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Lots, nationwide.

And that is the point. A half hourly non stop coach from central Tavistock to Plymouth station (perhaps with a call on the Tavistock Rd at Derriford for the hospital), that is linked to the national fares system (buy online or at a machine before you travel) is entirely possible.

It would provide greater benefit, for (substantially) lower operating costs, be better for the environment, and no need to spend the best part of a decade and £150m making it happen: it could be done by Christmas. You could buy the coaches, and operate them, for two years for the cost this next stage of feasibility and development is going to cost, and not charge passengers a penny.



There is bus / coach priority already in place at the busiest areas.

The coach journey time would be a little more than the train, but only a little, even in the peak. (train would be about 32 mins from Plymouth station to a station at not quite Tavistock (and a 10-15 minute walk to the centre), the coach 40 Mins right to the centre.) Right now the road journey time from Plymouth station to Tavistock Town Hall is 29 minutes.


The issue with this project, as with so many similar, is that the problem statement appears to be:

”what do we need to do to get a railway built to X”, rather than

”what is the transport / economic problem we are trying to solve, what options are there to do that, and which offers the best value for money”

this is the precisely the point that until the rail industry tackles its huge cost base why would any of these reopening schemes make financial sense. 150m will get you several 1000 place secondary schools or 50% of an acute hospital facility