It's been widely reported this week [1] [2] that TfL has a BIG gap in their budget with approximately £2.2bn uncovered by 2024/2025, but not seen any discussion here yet.
Evidently some of this is political positioning to prevent the most stark and most dramatic scene when in negotiation with central government regarding their next funding settlement. I've listed below some of the potential impacts on the London Underground which are also well summarised in this thread by the BBC London transport correspondent.
This is "Managed Decline":
There are also concerns about wider modal shift, the environmental impact and the impact upon equality for a city where almost half of people do not have a car. The full report can be found here.
The UK’s capital is on course to face massive cuts to its bus and Underground services, the end of investment in active travel schemes and the deterioration of roads, bridges, Tube trains and stations unless the government provides help with closing a £2 billion funding gap, according to a grim assessment of Transport for London’s current financial position.
A finance report prepared for next week’s meeting of TfL’s finance committee, compiled by Transport for London’s chief finance officer Simon Kilonback, concludes that even a combination of “the highest impact service level reductions” and a “significant reduction” in capital investment will not be sufficient to enable a balanced budget to set, as is required of TfL given its legal status as a local authority.
Evidently some of this is political positioning to prevent the most stark and most dramatic scene when in negotiation with central government regarding their next funding settlement. I've listed below some of the potential impacts on the London Underground which are also well summarised in this thread by the BBC London transport correspondent.
This is "Managed Decline":
- No Step Free Access schemes other than those which are currently in construction
- All fleets would need to be life extended as much as possible, as currently happening on some trains.
- Bakerloo and Central line fleet replacement pushed back to 2030s/2040s; Jubilee line replacement would not start until mid-2040s, at significant cost.
- No start to upgrading Piccadilly line signalling, meaning there would be a gap between completion of our current signalling projects and the next phase which will have wide impacts.
- Increase in future maintenance costs on Picacadilly line to keep the current asset in "operable condition"
- No further station capacity upgrades - Camden Town and Holborn do not take place.
- The new station box at Elephant & Castle would not be able to fitted into an operational station.
- Crossrail 2 and Bakerloo Line Extension remain suspended indefinitely
- The Piccadilly and DLR new rolling stock are both committed but may need to be reviewed
- All new "Growth Fund projects" not progressed; This includes Colindale, Walthamstow Central & Leyton station upgrades, Renwick Road Junction, Elephant and Castle station Bakerloo Line Extension safeguarding
- Fleet overhauls cannot fully take place, expected to lead to up 25 per cent reduction in peak service on some lines.
- Less track renewal requires more speed restrictions.
- "Risk of downward reliability spiral preventing passenger return, compounding financial challenge".
- Customer satisfaction decrease due to decline in lift, escalator and routine station works
- Life extensions and renewals to signalling to prolong their lifespan and deal with obsolescence
There are also concerns about wider modal shift, the environmental impact and the impact upon equality for a city where almost half of people do not have a car. The full report can be found here.
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