In the lead up to 2018 Rainham was a place to go to tick the 24tph box. It is high risk for low reward and I agree it should be junked. Most of the places it serves have better options using Javelin and/or Elizabeth line. I'd go for no Thameslink trains on the South Eastern, apart from the Catford loop to Sevenoaks/Orpington.
It was also done to appease Deptford, Greenwich, Maze Hill and Westcombe Park passengers as well, who had lost their Charing Cross service, until 2022, anywhere east of Charlton still had Charing Cross trains via Lewisham, but I don’t think it was worth it.
As you a lot of this route is paralleled by HS1 and the Elizabeth Line and can be covered in half the time.
Its only passengers west of Charlton (ie the Greenwich line) that gets the benefit of it but even then I don’t feel it’s worth it as it does cause disruption, if anything goes wrong with Thameslink the Rainham are always the first to be cancelled, personally, they should axe Thameslink, give the Greenwich line 6tph to Cannon Street from the Loops and Dartford/Gravesend and restore the Gillingham service as a Charing Cross via Lewisham train, doesn’t even have to be semi fast as before but can at least run semi fast between Gravesend and Dartford or even skip Erith and Belvedere.
Rainham only seems to be treated as problematic because the passengers once had a service to Charing Cross. Is there evidence that it causes disruption on Thameslink or is it just about it being an oddball service? Some people seem to complain about the service spacing via Greenwich, but is that really just down to the Thameslink service. I don't think Greenwich to Charing Cross is straightforward any more.
As I’ve said, if Thameslink gets delayed which it often does then the Rainhams are always canned which causes no end of disruption to the Dartford corridors, there was a reason why all the Dartford routes were ditched in the early 2000s proposals because there was no way to get any of the routes to the Thameslink tracks At Bermondsey without causing conflict which the Rainham does, which also defeats the purpose of axing Charing Cross trains from the Greenwich line.
Plus as many have said, this all stopper replaced a well used and handy semi fast train which in the age of the Elizabeth line would be handy for those coming from Medway/Gravesend to reach Abbey Wood inside of half an hour.
As a wider point, I’d say it’s also unclear what market it’s attempting to serve. There’s already access to the city in the form of Cannon Street, and there’s also connections to both Crossrail and the DLR, making the Woolwich route very well connected already. So I’m not sure what benefit the slow trundle is offering to anyone, especially when there was a quite decent semi-fast service before which seems to have been popular. And being such a slow trundle surely few from Medway use it to travel to/from core destinations, especially as they have HS1?
This is the other thing, before 2018 there was 4tph Loop-Greenwich-CST trains, 2tph Dartford-Greenwich-CHX trains and 2tph Gillingham-Woolwich-Blackheath-CHX semi fast trains
Thameslink if I’m honest has added nothing to this corridor that we wouldn’t have eventually gotten with the Elizabeth line.
If St. Albans & Luton were in such demand for those on this corridor then all one has to do is get HS1 from Medway/Gravesend to St. Pancras, points east of Abbey Wood can change there for the EL to Farringdon, same if at Woolwich, and both routes would still get you to St. Albans/Luton far quicker than the existing Rainham service which would be only reaching London Bridge by the time you’re zooming past Brent Cross, if the EL hadn’t of been built then there would be some justification for it.