The 2024 US presidential election.

[AlterEgo]

Biden to make address at 8pm ET tomorrow (1am Thursday UK) - I reckon he’ll immediately step down so Kamala Harris takes over and shows the US what they can have instead of Trump. It’s a perfect plan for the Democrats to get their candidate elected.

I really think this would be a bad move if it was motivated by this, and not Biden's complete incapacity for office. I expect the address to be a reiteration to his commitment to seeing out his Presidential term, a reiteration of his endorsement of Harris, and a "proof of life" style address given he hasn't been seen for a week.

Harris will be better off campaigning as a new start, not as an incumbent - despite being the existing VP. She's had a low profile in office.

There's also nothing between now and November to "show the US what they can have" - we are now in the election period with active campaigning and she will have no governmental agenda to deliver

As @jfollows points out, it is what Republicans want, too.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

He won't step down, firstly because the Republicans are calling for him to do so, and secondly because it will be much easier for Harris to campaign if she's not President. Oh, and thirdly Biden can take the blame for anything in the least bit negative and divert the flak away from her.

Absolutely Biden isn't about to walk out on completing full term an as you say leaves her free to take the fight to trump. The fact pretty well all the big noises in the Democrats have come in behind her so no need for an internal fight also shows there plenty that will have her back.

Perhaps this was the Democratic plan all along lull Trump into a false sense of security then switch horses. ie its all fallen into place too quickly with an avalanche of cash as well.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I've seen the suggestion be made that the VP should be Taylor Swift, as that would allow the Dems to win a landslide!

Lol

 

[Busaholic]

Biden to make address at 8pm ET tomorrow (1am Thursday UK) - I reckon he’ll immediately step down so Kamala Harris takes over and shows the US what they can have instead of Trump. It’s a perfect plan for the Democrats to get their candidate elected.

If that's the case, that is WONDERFUL: as you say, Harris will have a real chance to get elected. She'll need to choose a running mate very carefully, as the right choice might make all the difference. Then the Democrats need to take the attack to the MAGA bigtime, focussing on Trump's age (I know!) and own loss of cognitive ability, with loads of clips from recent rallies/conventions etc where he rambles on, praising his friends Putin and Xi Jinping and their great hold on their respective countries, all lapped up by his cult following with their inane grins and dead eyes. Harris being the incumbent in November could add several per cent to her vote, only important if it happens in the big five swing states. It really could be theirs to lose if it's true.

As @jfollows points out, it is what Republicans want, too.

I'd guarantee it's not. You can never believe a word Trump says, and he's been on the back foot in the last couple of days for the first time in months. I hope all the Security Services are beginning to make serious plans for when Trump and co. next refuse to accept the election results. They may need to dust off the laws relating to Treason as well, just in case.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

If any election was stolen, it was in 2000. Due to said electoral system, Gore vs W Bush came down to a few hundred votes in Florida despite Gore winning the national vote count by over half a million. The Republicans persuaded the Supreme Court to stop the process of assessing debatable voting cards ("hanging" and "pregnant chads") and I don't think we will ever know what the result would have been if it had gone ahead (where the votes destroyed?).

Absolutely - I agree. If it wasn’t so serious it was comical. Did not look good but give Florida its due, it has massively improved.

 

[JamesT]

If any election was stolen, it was in 2000. Due to said electoral system, Gore vs W Bush came down to a few hundred votes in Florida despite Gore winning the national vote count by over half a million. The Republicans persuaded the Supreme Court to stop the process of assessing debatable voting cards ("hanging" and "pregnant chads") and I don't think we will ever know what the result would have been if it had gone ahead (where the votes destroyed?).

The US media did do their own recount after the fact. https://web.archive.org/web/2001120...ECIALS/2001/florida.ballots/stories/main.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A comprehensive study of the 2000 presidential election in Florida suggests that if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed a statewide vote recount to proceed, Republican candidate George W. Bush would still have been elected president.

But it’s very hedged as it depends on what standard you stick to when assessing voter intent.

 

[railfan99]

The first opinion poll out since the change shows Harris leading Trump by two per cent.

However (as you in UK would know well given the UK's voluntary voting and I wouldn't as my nation has compulsory voting) the key is voter turnout, so with more than three months to go, a poll doesn't mean much unless one nominee was six or seven per cent ahead of the other.

 

[nw1]

The first opinion poll out since the change shows Harris leading Trump by two per cent.

However (as you in UK would know well given the UK's voluntary voting and I wouldn't as my nation has compulsory voting) the key is voter turnout, so with more than three months to go, a poll doesn't mean much unless one nominee was six or seven per cent ahead of the other.

The hope is that the fear of a Trump presidency will spook people into voting for Harris even if they aren't massive fans.

 

[birchesgreen]

I read somewhere (or maybe it was on TV anyway) that the US electorate is roughly split 3 ways between Democrats, Republicans and undecided. If you can get a candidate who can motivate your base to turn out and win a majority of the undecided then you win, i think Harris has a better chance of doing than than Biden, especially if she picks a good VP who can appeal to different segments of the electorate to Harris.

Trump meanwhile looks like a bear and his cub* when he is on TV with Vance.

* Take whatever meaning you like from this, they all apply

Edit: Meanwhile, Elon Musk has pulled out of his earlier reported $45 million a month donation to Trump. Hilarious.

 

[johnny_t]

The hope is that the fear of a Trump presidency will spook people into voting for Harris even if they aren't massive fans.

The thing to keep in mind here is that whilst, to every country in the world that isn't America, a Trump presidency is generally considered to be a ridiculous thing, it is seen quite differently there. They've had two elections where he has sat within a percent or two of the 50% mark (in either direction) and this one is looking much the same. Plus, they've already had one term of him, where most of the extreme things that everyone was warned would happen didn't happen.

All Americans know exactly what Donald Trump is about and no-one who isn't currently 'spooked' is suddenly going to become so.

 

[nw1]

The thing to keep in mind here is that whilst, to every country in the world that isn't America, a Trump presidency is generally considered to be a ridiculous thing, it is seen quite differently there. They've had two elections where he has sat within a percent or two of the 50% mark (in either direction) and this one is looking much the same. Plus, they've already had one term of him, where most of the extreme things that everyone was warned would happen didn't happen.

All Americans know exactly what Donald Trump is about and no-one who isn't currently 'spooked' is suddenly going to become so.

Arguably he has become worse since the first term though. For example the events of January 2021, the vote-rigging allegations against the Democrats, and the comparison of political opponents to "vermin". These are all signs, IMO, of a transition from a mouthy right-winger who spouts rubbish, to a wannabe autocrat.

I would have expected there to be a lot of people who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 who have since been put off him for life.

More trivially: a curious factoid is that whatever happens, the run of presidents born in either the 1940s or the 1960s, which started in 1992, will continue for another four years at least.

 

[wilbers]

The US media did do their own recount after the fact. https://web.archive.org/web/2001120...ECIALS/2001/florida.ballots/stories/main.html

But it’s very hedged as it depends on what standard you stick to when assessing voter intent.

I've just had a read of that - closest the US can ever come to a tie for a Presidential election [I'm aware that for more local elections there may be an actual tie in number of votes like can happen in the UK for a local councillor (and theoretically an MP, though think last time that happened was 1886), and then its literally a toss-up (toss a coin to see who wins)].

 

[railfan99]

I would have expected there to be a lot of people who voted Trump in 2016 and 2020 who have since been put off him for life.

If the USA election is largely about inflation/cost of living and illegal immigration, Harris is vulnerable, though for a while she'll receive an uplift in polling given she's 'new'.

She's tied to President Biden. She's failed dismally in (not) stopping the flow of undocumented immigrants.

There are many Americans who will vote on who is best for their hip pocket. That'll be Trump, not Harris.

If I was an adviser to Trump I'd be recommending concentrating on cost of living issues and reminding voters how I (Trump) previously ensured blacks and Hispanics improved their material status.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The thing to keep in mind here is that whilst, to every country in the world that isn't America, a Trump presidency is generally considered to be a ridiculous thing, it is seen quite differently there. They've had two elections where he has sat within a percent or two of the 50% mark (in either direction) and this one is looking much the same. Plus, they've already had one term of him, where most of the extreme things that everyone was warned would happen didn't happen.

All Americans know exactly what Donald Trump is about and no-one who isn't currently 'spooked' is suddenly going to become so.

Exactly. I have lived here for 24 years and I know the mindset.

 

[nw1]

If the USA election is largely about inflation/cost of living and illegal immigration, Harris is vulnerable, though for a while she'll receive an uplift in polling given she's 'new'.

Is it though? (In any case how exactly is Trump going to somehow fix the cost of living? Re-distribute the wealth of America's rich to the common person through taxation? Increased regulation of energy bills? I can scarcely see such un-GOP-like policies being enacted!)

Or is it really about the threat of autocracy and severe erosion of civil rights in the USA that a Trump presidency would bring? The increase in world instability that a Trump presidency could bring through sucking up to Putin? Or the lack of action on climate change (in yet another blisteringly hot summer for most of the Northern Hemisphere outside of northwestern Europe)? It certainly ought to be...

As for illegal immigration, well the sooner people stop whinging and whining about that and focusing on the world's real problems, the better. The West needs to get used to more migrants from the rest of the world, I suspect, so it would do well to get used to it now. In particular, to a much greater extent than say Europe, it seems to me that the US has vast amounts of empty space in which you could build a new city or three to deal with population growth, and no-one would bat an eyelid - so complaints about migration in the US are even less valid than those in Europe.

 

[edwin_m]

Is it though? (In any case how exactly is Trump going to somehow fix the cost of living? Re-distribute the wealth of America's rich to the common person through taxation? Increased regulation of energy bills? I can scarcely see such un-GOP-like policies being enacted!

Or is it really about the threat of autocracy and severe erosion of civil rights in the USA that a Trump presidency would bring? The increase in world instability that a Trump presidency should bring through sucking up to Putin? Or the lack of action on climate change (in yet another blisteringly hot summer for most of the Northern Hemisphere outside of northwestern Europe)? It certainly ought to be...

As for illegal immigration, well the sooner people stop whinging and whining about that and focusing on the world's real problems, the better. The West needs to get used to more migrants from the rest of the world, I suspect, so it would do well to get used to it now. In particular, to a much greater extent than say Europe, it seems to me that the US has vast amounts of empty space in which you could build a new city or three to deal with population growth, and no-one would bat an eyelid - so complaints about migration in the US are even less valid than those in Europe.

I suggest many Trump voters exist in a filter bubble, where they are unware of these facts. Or if they get to hear any, they can dismiss them as fake news spread by a conspiracy.

 

[Broucek]

It is a subtlety, but a lot of focus has been on Biden being 'old', whereas it should really be about him being 'infirm'. There are 81 year olds that could probably do the job, but he isn't one of them. However, now that it has been focussed on age rather than ability, then it will come to bite Trump on the bum too.

There are two problems. I agree that *by far* the more serious one is that he's not up to the job cognitively and that would still be true if he were 55. There is a secondary concern that *is* age-related: at 80+, the probability of a serious health event up to and including death over four years is extremely high, even if the individual is currently in perfect health (and, yes, one could say this about Trump)

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I would hate for age limits to be put on candidates but surely all should have a publicly released cognitive test taken?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I would hate for age limits to be put on candidates but surely all should have a publicly released cognitive test taken?

The world has suffered over its entire recorded life from too many old men, mainly, who couldn't let go so an age cap of 75 feels more than appropriate.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The world has suffered over its entire recorded life from too many old men -----

I remember vividly is 2020 when Kamala was in the primaries and said words to that effect about Biden and Trump.
Then Biden picked her as VP!!!!

 

[Bald Rick]

I suggest many Trump voters exist in a filter bubble, where they are unware of these facts. Or if they get to hear any, they can dismiss them as fake news spread by a conspiracy.

Quite. Knowing a few Trump voters myself, and despite them being seemingly ‘normal’, they seem to be completely in hock to what he says, regardless of everything else that is going on in the US and the world around them.

 

[railfan99]

I suggest many Trump voters exist in a filter bubble, where they are unware of these facts. Or if they get to hear any, they can dismiss them as fake news spread by a conspiracy.

Or perhaps they have more commonsense than those who want the West to be overrun by individuals who do not share Judeo-Christian values?

God Bless America.

 

[brad465]

Or perhaps they have more commonsense than those who want the West to be overrun by individuals who do not share Judeo-Christian values?

God Bless America.

The US as a whole does not practise Judean-Christian values, and certainly not the public figures claiming to preach them. If they did practise them, they wouldn't allow high levels of gun violence, they wouldn't be one of the fattest nations in the world, they wouldn't have the worst healthcare model in the world, they wouldn't exploit prisoners for slave labour on an industrial scale and they wouldn't claim to be pro-life in the context of unborn babies, only to then oppress their rights in several ways after they've been born as well as their mums, and so on...

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Biden speech just now was not too bad. Quite a few mumbles and stumbles but positive and not negative- so that is good.

He said it was important to pass the torch onto a new generation with new ideas.

 

[birchesgreen]

Or perhaps they have more commonsense than those who want the West to be overrun by individuals who do not share Judeo-Christian values?

God Bless America.

When are these Trump supporters going to show these Judeo-Christian values?

 

[Noddy]

Or perhaps they have more commonsense than those who want the West to be overrun by individuals who do not share Judeo-Christian values?

God Bless America.

Are sexual harassment, sexual assault, fraud, defamation, tax avoidance and having sex with a porn star who wasn’t your wife examples of Judeo-Christian values?

 

[nw1]

Or perhaps they have more commonsense than those who want the West to be overrun by individuals who do not share Judeo-Christian values?

God Bless America.

This has got to be a wind-up, surely.

 

[Bantamzen]

Are sexual harassment, sexual assault, fraud, defamation, tax avoidance and having sex with a porn star who wasn’t your wife examples of Judeo-Christian values?

It always makes me laugh when Trump supporters suggest that Trump is the embodiment of Christianity, or even worse sent by a Christian god. I'm not religious myself, but even I know Trump is quite the opposite.

 

[nw1]

The world has suffered over its entire recorded life from too many old men, mainly, who couldn't let go so an age cap of 75 feels more than appropriate.

I don't think that would be fair. It would be perfectly possible to have a 75+ year old who was cognitively completely up to the job.

It should be assessed on a case-by-case basis, not some arbitrary age bar.

 

[railfan99]

When are these Trump supporters going to show these Judeo-Christian values?

JD Vance is the embodiment of these values.

He converted to Catholicism in 2019, and is a great story of someone who hauled himself up by his bootstraps. He's served his country, yet isn't a member of the political elite.

Trump may not be the best candidate for the GOP, but Harris is extremely left wing and way out of step with the majority of Americans who do not reside in California or New York City.