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The 2024 US presidential election.

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edwin_m

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The supreme court appointments are a big part of why people like the religious groups are happy to overlook Trump and his, erm, non Christian lifestyle/views and vote for him. He has packed the court with conservatives ( some may say ultra conservative justices) and the religious groups hope that will help them roll back rights on abortion/gay rights and such like and take back control from the godless left wing Marxists or some such
That's a double-edged sword. Many of those groups will see that their current advantageous position might be threatened if Harris wins and pushes these reforms through. But then again, they probably wouldn't have considered voting for Harris anyway.
They are mild changes that Biden suggests. I would use my newly fangled immunity from prosecution to make changes, declare all the Conservative justices threats to national security, strip them of their role, chuck them in prison and send 55 new sensible justices to the bench ;)
When the Supreme Court granted the President this immunity, it was only for things defined by the courts as "official duties". So ultimately the decision on whether a President can be prosecuted would be appealed all the way back to the Supreme Court. I rather think they would find these actions were illegal...

I do wonder if Biden has the power to impose an ethics code by executive order, and require all the justices to publish their outside interests within say a month. It would be reversed if Trump won, but might create enough waves in the meantime to influence the result.
 
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Senex

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They are mild changes that Biden suggests. I would use my newly fangled immunity from prosecution to make changes, declare all the Conservative justices threats to national security, strip them of their role, chuck them in prison and send 55 new sensible justices to the bench ;)
On the assumption that that's unfortunately not going to work, what would the mechanism be—if one even exists—for legally dissolving the existing Supreme Court? Would it need two-thirds majorities in both House and Senate and then the consent of the President? Or did the Founding Fathers never even dream that a court could become so discredited that the other branches of government would want to be rid of it?
 

ainsworth74

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On the assumption that that's unfortunately not going to work, what would the mechanism be—if one even exists—for legally dissolving the existing Supreme Court? Would it need two-thirds majorities in both House and Senate and then the consent of the President? Or did the Founding Fathers never even dream that a court could become so discredited that the other branches of government would want to be rid of it?
It's provided for in the Constitution that there will be a Supreme Court (precise arrangements are delegated to Congress), so would require a Constitutional Amendment to dispense with entirely (requiring 2/3rd of both houses to propose and then 38 of the States to ratify using the usual method of making an amendment). Not sure what you'd replace it with though, you do need a ultimate (one might even say "Supreme") court even if you did manage to get rid of it via a Constitutional Amendment. In theory you could impeach every Supreme Court justice but that requires Congress again (you need a simple majority of Representatives to agree to articles of impeachment then 2/3rd of Senators to vote to convict) and then you'd need the Senate to approve every new pick to replace them.
 

DarloRich

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When the Supreme Court granted the President this immunity, it was only for things defined by the courts as "official duties".
I am president. It is an official act. They are a threat to national security. I am immune. Ask the supreme court..................
 

Cloud Strife

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Not sure what you'd replace it with though, you do need a ultimate (one might even say "Supreme") court even if you did manage to get rid of it via a Constitutional Amendment

Part of the problem with the US Supreme Court is that the legislative system is so completely broken that it's become a de facto legislative chamber in its own right.
If I were to suggest a replacement, then I would get rid of all the judges and replace them with a substantially larger court, appointed by 2/3rds of both houses of Congress without requiring Presidential approval. The stick would be that if Congress failed to appoint at least 2/3rds of the Supreme Court, then it would be dissolved and new elections held. Both sides would therefore have reason to appoint moderate judges, meaning that the Supreme Court would reflect reality.

I do wonder if Biden has the power to impose an ethics code by executive order, and require all the justices to publish their outside interests within say a month. It would be reversed if Trump won, but might create enough waves in the meantime to influence the result.

It might be enough to simply launch an executive order for the FBI to investigate and publish their findings.
 

zero

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As long as it applies to Senators, and Representatives in the Senate/house too. He can not have it both ways. Presidents already have term limits of course.

How is this 'having it both ways'? Members of Congress need to face the people every few years. If they are able to repeatedly win elections throughout their life I don't see that being a problem? Individual members have nowhere near the amount of power as a President or a Supreme Court Justice
 

DoubleLemon

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Its staggering that a lot of Americans think the Olympics opening ceremony was a mockery of the last supper and despite having it explored to them they still believe it's an insult against them.


The last supper iconogrophy is older than the painting and is another example of how the church stole famous icons (and celebrations) to further thier own aims.


Linking this to the election, do Americans not have any critical thinking?

How can some of these people understand the choices they are making when they vote if they jump to the stupidest conclusions on a lot of topics.
 

Bantamzen

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Its staggering that a lot of Americans think the Olympics opening ceremony was a mockery of the last supper and despite having it explored to them they still believe it's an insult against them.


The last supper iconogrophy is older than the painting and is another example of how the church stole famous icons (and celebrations) to further thier own aims.


Linking this to the election, do Americans not have any critical thinking?

How can some of these people understand the choices they are making when they vote if they jump to the stupidest conclusions on a lot of topics.
I suspect in many cases this is just a reality in a large nation where many of its citizens are simply not exposed to cultures not of their own. I see it sometimes here with some family who spend most of their lives in small communities, rarely heading to larger cities, they can become deeply prejudiced especially if their preferred social media channels give them the perception that everywhere is full of people trying to take over their culture. As an example in this country, I often see social media feeds telling everyone just how dangerous my local city is, and how it has become a "warzone" and you should never go there. But the reality is my city is just like many others, not great but certainly not a dangerous place. And when you dig a little you usually find that the people telling you it's dangerous haven't been near it in years, maybe decades, relying solely on social media to tell about it. I imagine the same is true in the US, just on a way larger scale.

I often bring this issue up when discussing travel when some suggest it should be restricted for the greater good. The problem as demonstrated above is that once communities isolate from others, suspicion and fear of others quickly becomes normal, made worse if social media algorithms give some bias confirmation of that. In time this can lead to conflict and even war if left to fester long enough. I've often recommended the 2020 documentary / film 'The Social Dilemma' for a better understanding of how social media algorithms actually work, and how Trump's 2016 team were able to successfully influence enough swing voters to make a real difference in that election using social media. Its is well worth a watch even just for that.

But in short they used anonymised social media profiles to first identify users most like to be undecided, and actively targeted them through a number of sponsored posts pointing them to Trump friendly resources. Then as these users investigated said resources, this then triggered the algorithms to offer more Trump friendly content giving them more & more skewed messaging about the two candidates, obviously painting Trump as the good guy and Clinton as the bad guy. Some after-the-fact data analysis suggested that these users were likely to have gone on to vote for Trump. This is down to how those social media profiles are built, as people click or even slow down on individual posts, so their profile makes note of this and using machine learning starts to target more content relating to what they've clicked on or at least hovered over. So if you spend more time interacting with right leaning posts, the algorithms will offer you more of the same and less of everything else.

So expect plenty more use of social media by both sides to try and use / exploit this.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Its staggering that a lot of Americans think the Olympics opening ceremony was a mockery of the last supper and despite having it explored to them they still believe it's an insult against them.

Can you provide some links/background? I've literally no idea what story/event/whatever you're referring to here?
 

Whistler40145

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Is Trump starting to lose his mind?

I've seen clips on YouTube where he's stumbling over his words and sometimes can't even pronounce them.
 

DynamicSpirit

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They created a high bar but I don't think they intended it to be as high as the current polarised situation has made it. Of Amendment's that have gone on to be ratified we're currently 53 years on from the 26th Amendment (lowered the voting age to 18) being proposed to the present day. The largest gap between amendments before then was the 62 years between the 12th (created the modern system of President and Vice President being elected together rather than the VP being the loser of the Presidential race) and 13th (abolish of slavery) Amendment's. Even if we include unratified Amendment's the last time one was sent to the States for ratification was in 1978 (would have given Washington DC representation in Congress, on the Electoral College and to vote on Constitutional Amendments).

It was a deliberately high bar, a constitution should be a difficult thing to change, but I'm not sure it was meant to be quite this high.

It's not just a high bar. I'd argue the method provided for changing the constitution is not at all appropriate for the modern age: I would expect that if you have a written constitution, the method for changing it ought to involve some participation by the voters - for example, that it can be changed by a super-majority in a referendum. But according to https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-constitution/, US method for changing the constitution is a 2/3 vote in both houses of Congress plus a vote by the legislatures of 3/4 of the states. In other words, you need close to universal agreement amongst the ruling political parties, but absolutely no approval by the wider electorate.

I also find this worrying:

Additionally, the Constitution specifies that no amendment can deny a State equal representation in the Senate without that State’s consent.

That would seem to imply that it will be impossible to fix the awful disproportionate way that Senate seats are allocated without the agreement of every single one of the small states that are currently over-represented.
 

birchesgreen

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Can you provide some links/background? I've literally no idea what story/event/whatever you're referring to here?
The Olympic opening ceremony apparently (i didn't see it myself) included some religious imagery, American Christians including politicians, but the usual suspects like megabrain Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been up in arms about it on Fox News and social media calling it Satanic et cetera.

Some folks in Dullsville, OK are going to never go to France because of it, i'm sure that will collapse France's tourism market.
 

bahnause

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Is Trump starting to lose his mind?

I've seen clips on YouTube where he's stumbling over his words and sometimes can't even pronounce them.
That has always been the case. But the press was only interested when it concerned Joe Biden. For years, Trump has neither been able to form complete sentences nor to include factually accurate content in them.

Even during the TV debate, Trump's lies were never addressed by the press, no pushback in any form. I was travelling at the time and could only watch the audio stream. This gave a completely different picture of the discussion.

Trump is finished. As a human and as a politician. It is only the press keeping him alive.
 

DoubleLemon

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The Olympic opening ceremony apparently (i didn't see it myself) included some religious imagery, American Christians including politicians, but the usual suspects like megabrain Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been up in arms about it on Fox News and social media calling it Satanic et cetera.

Some folks in Dullsville, OK are going to never go to France because of it, i'm sure that will collapse France's tourism market.
No it didn't contain Christian based religious images. They are Greek images.

The painting it's based on is a lot older than the last supper.

It's a scene depicting Dionysus, the Greek god of wine. It was reportedly based on The Feast of the Gods, a 17th century painting by Dutch artist Jan Harmensz van Biljert that hangs in the Magnin Museum, in Dijon, eastern France.

Is the attached image religious? People need to stop saying it's religious.

Christianity stole the iconography like they stole Christmas and Easter etc.
 

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birchesgreen

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No it didn't contain religious images. They are Greek images.

The painting it's based on is a lot older than the last supper.

It's a scene depicting Dionysus, the Greek god of wine. It was reportedly based on The Feast of the Gods, a 17th century painting by Dutch artist Jan Harmensz van Biljert that hangs in the Magnin Museum, in Dijon, eastern France.

Is the attached image religious? People need to stop saying it's religious.

Christianity stole the iconogrophy like they stole Christmas and Easter etc.
OK if you say so.
 

ainsworth74

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How is this 'having it both ways'? Members of Congress need to face the people every few years. If they are able to repeatedly win elections throughout their life I don't see that being a problem? Individual members have nowhere near the amount of power as a President or a Supreme Court Justice
I know what you mean but there is a significant problem with gerrymandering in the US system which means that often as long as you're of the appropriate party you've got a seat for life. The only real threat you face is having a primary challenger from your own party try and unseat you. So even though, in theory, you should face the electorate every two years meaning that if they're unhappy with you you'll get booted out, the reality is that that doesn't happen.

This is, of course, why you often end up with total lunatics in the House of Representatives because primary's are often closed to only those of the appropriate party affiliation and of those only the hardcore will actually turn up to vote. Meaning you need to be a lunatic to appeal to the small pool of voters who will choose the candidate.

All that being said the appropriate remedy would be to undo the gerrymandering but both parties tend to benefit from being able to sow up their constituencies as they see fit so never seems to be high on the agenda.

It's not just a high bar. I'd argue the method provided for changing the constitution is not at all appropriate for the modern age: I would expect that if you have a written constitution, the method for changing it ought to involve some participation by the voters - for example, that it can be changed by a super-majority in a referendum. But according to https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-constitution/, US method for changing the constitution is a 2/3 vote in both houses of Congress plus a vote by the legislatures of 3/4 of the states. In other words, you need close to universal agreement amongst the ruling political parties, but absolutely no approval by the wider electorate.

I know what you mean but, of course, the counter argument would be that the US, like most, is a representative democracy, not a direct democracy, so representatives are elected to get on with the business of governing. Whatever the precise mechanism used (as there are a couple of different routes that can be taken) those representatives at Federal and State level are highly involved in proposing and ratifying the change and that is what they are sent to Congress or State Houses to do.

There is an argument to be made that, in the 21st century, when its possible to transmit information instantaneously and travel across the US in a matter of hours that the electorate should be more hands on than when the Constitution was written in the 18th century for sure. But I'm not convinced that the current process isn't fit for purpose but perhaps there is scope for a hybrid process where the existing methods of proposing an amendment continue as now (either 2/3rds of Congress propose the amendment or 2/3rds of the States apply to Congress for a convention to be held at which amendments can be proposed by the States) but then the ratification process requires the electorates of at least 3/4ths of the States to vote in favour.

All that being said, I suspect that there are bigger constitutional fish to fry than the process used to amend the Constitution!

I also find this worrying:



That would seem to imply that it will be impossible to fix the awful disproportionate way that Senate seats are allocated without the agreement of every single one of the small states that are currently over-represented.

I know what you mean but that is one of the key roles of the Senate. To provide all states, no matter their size, an equal voice in one of the houses of Congress. Which I do think has some merit as an idea. Whilst it does obviously lead to some perversity, Wyoming (population: 576k) has as much power in the Senate as Texas (population: 30.5m), at the same time it would seem unfair that somewhere like Wyoming would be totally drowned out by the larger States if both Houses were elected on a more proportional basis. After all Texas sends thirty-eight members to the House of Representatives to Wyoming's one!

I think the issue here is that many people aren't benefitting from the strong economy, or at least don't feel they are benefitting.

I think that latter point is perhaps the critical issue. On most metrics the US economy is doing pretty well at the moment. Inflation is perhaps a little higher than would be ideal (at around 3%) but unemployment is fairly low (4%), and growth is going well (2.8%) so the situation seems to be going quite well. But it seems clear that, for various complex reasons, that this headline good news isn't trickling down and being felt by those further down the food chain. I think that ends up driving quite a lot of the discontent that we've seen generally. People are being told that we've never had it so good (and, to be fair, in many respects we haven't!) but they don't feel like they're actually benefiting from these good times.
 

edwin_m

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I know what you mean but that is one of the key roles of the Senate. To provide all states, no matter their size, an equal voice in one of the houses of Congress. Which I do think has some merit as an idea. Whilst it does obviously lead to some perversity, Wyoming (population: 576k) has as much power in the Senate as Texas (population: 30.5m), at the same time it would seem unfair that somewhere like Wyoming would be totally drowned out by the larger States if both Houses were elected on a more proportional basis. After all Texas sends thirty-eight members to the House of Representatives to Wyoming's one!
There's also the fact that a large State in itself includes many areas with different characteristics and it's only down to historical accident that they aren't themselves States. So for example the Austin area is considerably more liberal than much of Texas, with more population than Wyoming, but has no voice in the US Senate.
I think that latter point is perhaps the critical issue. On most metrics the US economy is doing pretty well at the moment. Inflation is perhaps a little higher than would be ideal (at around 3%) but unemployment is fairly low (4%), and growth is going well (2.8%) so the situation seems to be going quite well. But it seems clear that, for various complex reasons, that this headline good news isn't trickling down and being felt by those further down the food chain. I think that ends up driving quite a lot of the discontent that we've seen generally. People are being told that we've never had it so good (and, to be fair, in many respects we haven't!) but they don't feel like they're actually benefiting from these good times.
I suspect the problem is regional variation, but not sure where to look for statistics. Is the prosperity centred on the big cities so those in rural (and more pro-Trump) areas feel that not only are they struggling, but everyone they know is too?
 

ainsworth74

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There's also the fact that a large State in itself includes many areas with different characteristics and it's only down to historical accident that they aren't themselves States. So for example the Austin area is considerably more liberal than much of Texas, with more population than Wyoming, but has no voice in the US Senate.
Yes that's certainly true though, of course, Austin has a voice in the Senate as its residents take part in the state wide elections to choose their US Senators! At some point you do have to draw a line though in terms of levels of representation. Should every metro area in the US over say around 2m people have their own Federal representation beyond the House of Representatives? There's about thirty-five such areas in the United States at the moment.

I can see why people feel its unfair that every state, no matter the population, gets two senators but equally I think there's a risk of unfairness if both chambers are elected in proportion to population. It means that California, Texas, New York and Florida will always find it much easier to get their way and override the wishes of the smaller states like New Hampshire, North Dakota or Nevada. I don't think that it is inherently unwise for one chamber to represent the states in proportion to their population and in the other for everyone to be equal. The bigger issue I think is the hyper partisanship meaning that votes are nearly always straight down party lines along with, in the Senate in particular, the way that processes like the filibuster are abused to make sure that nothing gets passed (or at least it takes much longer anyway) even when one side does have a small majority are far more serious in my view.
I suspect the problem is regional variation, but not sure where to look for statistics. Is the prosperity centred on the big cities so those in rural (and more pro-Trump) areas feel that not only are they struggling, but everyone they know is too?

I think you're probably right. I wouldn't be surprised if there were different pinch points in different areas as well. I can well imagine in, say, Los Angeles the economy might be going gangbusters but because of issues with housing costs no-one feels as if they're actually benefiting from said economy even if their wages are rising quickly. Meanwhile in perhaps rural West Virginia cost of living might be low but everyone is unemployed because there's very few coal mining jobs remaining, the jobs that are still there pay low and are insecure, and there's little infrastructure so they're feeling an acute level of economic depression. Both groups are likely to feel that "the economy is rubbish" but for very different reasons even though on the macro level the economy is doing great!
 

edwin_m

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I can see why people feel its unfair that every state, no matter the population, gets two senators but equally I think there's a risk of unfairness if both chambers are elected in proportion to population. It means that California, Texas, New York and Florida will always find it much easier to get their way and override the wishes of the smaller states like New Hampshire, North Dakota or Nevada. I don't think that it is inherently unwise for one chamber to represent the states in proportion to their population and in the other for everyone to be equal. The bigger issue I think is the hyper partisanship meaning that votes are nearly always straight down party lines along with, in the Senate in particular, the way that processes like the filibuster are abused to make sure that nothing gets passed (or at least it takes much longer anyway) even when one side does have a small majority are far more serious in my view.
The other issue this causes is that the electors for President are allocated by numbers of senators plus representatives for each state, so the small states get disproportionate influence here too. Furthermore all states bar (I think) two allocate all their electors to the winner of the popular vote within that state. Allocating them proportionally to the actual votes cast would go some way to addressing this.
 

ainsworth74

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The other issue this causes is that the electors for President are allocated by numbers of senators plus representatives for each state, so the small states get disproportionate influence here too. Furthermore all states bar (I think) two allocate all their electors to the winner of the popular vote within that state. Allocating them proportionally to the actual votes cast would go some way to addressing this.
Ah yes well the Electoral College is a whole other kettle of fish and one of those things that I would prioritise fixing over things like the process for making amendments of the Constitution (to circle back to earlier in the conversation). Seems barmy that it a) exists and b) even if it does have to exist that states votes are winner takes all rather than a proportion (in all but one or two cases) of electors based on the popular vote in that State.
 

JamesT

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Ah yes well the Electoral College is a whole other kettle of fish and one of those things that I would prioritise fixing over things like the process for making amendments of the Constitution (to circle back to earlier in the conversation). Seems barmy that it a) exists and b) even if it does have to exist that states votes are winner takes all rather than a proportion (in all but one or two cases) of electors based on the popular vote in that State.
Isn't this all going back to the fact that the US is a collection of states, rather than a unitary state? How a State goes about appointing its electors is its choice, as per the constitution of the State.
 

nw1

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Yes that's certainly true though, of course, Austin has a voice in the Senate as its residents take part in the state wide elections to choose their US Senators!
Mind you if the Senator is for Texas as a whole, they aren't necessarily a good representative for the people of Austin, in the same way that if there was a hypothetical UK Senate, the all-East Anglia member probably wouldn't be the first choice of the people of Cambridge.
 

edwin_m

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Mind you if the Senator is for Texas as a whole, they aren't necessarily a good representative for the people of Austin, in the same way that if there was a hypothetical UK Senate, the all-East Anglia member probably wouldn't be the first choice of the people of Cambridge.
Indeed, but if Austin was a state (it has nearly twice the population of Wyoming) it could have two senators all of its own. The state boundaries are mainly down to historical coincidence, particularly in the west where they were totally rural when the boundaries were drawn. Some like California now have big populations, others like Wyoming not so much.
Isn't this all going back to the fact that the US is a collection of states, rather than a unitary state? How a State goes about appointing its electors is its choice, as per the constitution of the State.
See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
 

GRALISTAIR

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The US shows that a strong economy does not always make a strong society.
In some ways the US is like the UK at the moment. UK benefited (well I think they did anyway) from Eastern Europeans coming in and providing cheap labour. The US benefits massively from undocumented and legal aliens from poorer Hispanic countries and I don't just mean Mexico either.
 

jon0844

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Its staggering that a lot of Americans think the Olympics opening ceremony was a mockery of the last supper and despite having it explored to them they still believe it's an insult against them.


The last supper iconogrophy is older than the painting and is another example of how the church stole famous icons (and celebrations) to further thier own aims.

I went to Olympia in Greece some years ago and was quite surprised to be told they competed naked. Somehow, if Americans realised the origins of the games they would probably try and ban it. I expect that given Los Angeles (Blue state) has the games in 2028, they'll go mental.

Linking this to the election, do Americans not have any critical thinking?

How can some of these people understand the choices they are making when they vote if they jump to the stupidest conclusions on a lot of topics.

One can ask the same here, as loads of people are still quoting a fake name from a Russian website regarding the Southport attack. They are now claiming the locals and police are part of a conspiracy to hide the fact it was a muslim refugee fresh off a boat that did it.

These days it seems quite easy to make people believe 2+2=5.
 
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