The Future of Thameslink

[htmtrains]

Hello friends, I'm new here, so I hope this is the right subforum to post on, but I was wondering what will happen to Thameslink when GBR arrives, because unlike many other services, Thameslink is mostly commuter services going into London (I hope I'm right?) So once GBR is up and running do you think that Thameslink will be taken over by TfL, or have its own special region (like Network SouthEast), or just run like most GBR trains?

 

[30907]

Hello friends, I'm new here, so I hope this is the right subforum to post on, but I was wondering what will happen to Thameslink when GBR arrives, because unlike many other services, Thameslink is mostly commuter services going into London (I hope I'm right?) So once GBR is up and running do you think that Thameslink will be taken over by TfL, or have its own special region (like Network SouthEast), or just run like most GBR trains?

Hi and welcome. I'll suggest this goes in the speculation forum.

Thameslink covers a vast area (Peterborough to Brighton is about 130miles) and has relatively few services serving local stations in the London suburbs (the Wimbledon loop and Sevenoaks line basically), so I can't see a case for TfL taking over.
My guess is that it will either stay as is, or revert to being a separate operating unit without the "Southern" element.

 

[zwk500]

Thameslink will remain with GBR/National Rail network, because it ties into so many other main lines GBR will be running. TfL has made noises about taking over services wholly within Greater London, but in the current Political Climate it's not going to happen. But TfL wouldn't want to run trains to Brighton or Cambridge.

 

[Bald Rick]

There will be no change.

 

[A60stock]

My guess would be that if this were to happen in any form, TFL would take over the Loop and Sevenoaks services and running these as far as Luton at most. Rebrand these services into "xxxx line" as done with the Elizabeth and transfer of the required number of 8 car 700s from Govia to TFL for this.

Thameslink would then be left to concentrate on the longer distance services between Brighton/Gatwick to Bedford/Cambridge/Peterborough

 

[Chiltern006]

Something like this if it was taken over by TfL?

 

[Basil Jet]

Rebrand these services into "xxxx line"

Sponsored by Castlemaine?

 

[Royston Vasey]

Hello friends, I'm new here, so I hope this is the right subforum to post on, but I was wondering what will happen to Thameslink when GBR arrives, because unlike many other services, Thameslink is mostly commuter services going into London (I hope I'm right?) So once GBR is up and running do you think that Thameslink will be taken over by TfL, or have its own special region (like Network SouthEast), or just run like most GBR trains?

You would achieve the impossible... manage to make the passengers long to be operated by GTR again

 

[JonathanH]

My guess would be that if this were to happen in any form, TFL would take over the Loop and Sevenoaks services and running these as far as Luton at most.

What would be your guess as to how the units would circulate to Three Bridges and Hornsey for maintenance?

 

[D365]

But TfL wouldn't want to run trains to Brighton or Cambridge.

Or Peterborough...

 

[Fincra5]

In my opinion TL reaches too far. Personally I feel it should be more on an RER style service, not going tooooooo far out of London.

I know the ECML services became TL to free up Kings Cross a bit more but the flaws of the service show during disruption, especially on the ECML. The 9J's, Horsham - Peterborough, seem to be the first to fall leaving no other GN train to PBO from London.

 

[JonathanH]

The 9J's, Horsham - Peterborough, seem to be the first to fall leaving no other GN train to PBO from London.

It is an interesting question as to whether 8 car class 700s might now be sufficient on the Peterborough route at peak times if it only ran to Kings Cross all day and didn't go through Thameslink, noting that it would probably have to use platforms 9 and 10.

I assume that you are envisaging the Cambridge to Brighton train would continue to run through (as a half hourly link from Thameslink to the GN route) and Horsham services would terminate at London Bridge (as happens on Sundays).

The trouble is that Brighton, Horsham Bedford, Peterborough and Cambridge are all natural finishing points on the respective routes and the London terminal stations all have capacity issues.

In my opinion TL reaches too far. Personally I feel it should be more on an RER style service, not going tooooooo far out of London.

A worked up proposal for switching Thameslink routes to a more local set of services would be fascinating if someone has time to develop one.

 

[Basil Jet]

A worked up proposal for switching Thameslink routes to a more local set of services would be fascinating if someone has time to develop one.

The stumbling block is the 12-car trains. I don't think any branch line needs a frequent supply of them.

 

[JonathanH]

The stumbling block is the 12-car trains. I don't think any branch line needs a frequent supply of them.

We could assume that they nearly all get reformed as 10 car trains for the purpose of the proposal.

 

[Bald Rick]

The stumbling block is the 12-car trains. I don't think any branch line needs a frequent supply of them.

except the MML between Bedford / St Albans to London.

 

[Agent_Squash]

We could assume that they nearly all get reformed as 10 car trains for the purpose of the proposal.

After all the expensive infrastructure work to support 12 car running?

 

[Basil Jet]

After all the expensive infrastructure work to support 12 car running?

That would be as mental as building the Ordsall chord and then hardly running any trains over it!

 

[NSE]

I think the 12 car need has been hit by the change of commuting patterns post covid. It was a sensible move when ordered.

 

[mmh]

What would be your guess as to how the units would circulate to Three Bridges and Hornsey for maintenance?

In the same way countless units go for maintenance to locations and over lines not served in passenger service by them.

That's not to say I think there's any reason to do what the OP suggests, but maintenance is not an automatic barrier to it happening.

That would be as mental as building the Ordsall chord and then hardly running any trains over it!

Hi, Halton curve here! I'm also feeling quite lonely.

People countering a suggestion with "that would be a waste" should think of how many wasteful/unused things are done.

 

[JonathanH]

In the same way countless units go for maintenance to locations and over lines not served in passenger service by them.

That's not to say I think there's any reason to do what the OP suggests, but maintenance is not an automatic barrier to it happening.

Indeed, I guess the best example is Central Rivers and the multitude of empty stock workings to Birmingham New Street and Derby, and I suppose there are relatively long distance empty stock workings elsewhere but it isn't ideal for a suburban railway.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

I think the 12 car need has been hit by the change of commuting patterns post covid.

I struggle to find FLUs that aren't crush loaded of people during leisure times en-route to Brighton.

 

[JonathanH]

I struggle to find FLUs that aren't crush loaded of people during leisure times en-route to Brighton.

There are ways of fixing that which might reduce demand and increase revenue. If they aren't full at peak times, it seems unlikely that the railway is making money.

 

[mmh]

There are ways of fixing that which might reduce demand and increase revenue. If they aren't full at peak times, the railway isn't making money.

Close the line and make people drive?

I'm not being completely facetious, all revenue effectively goes to the Government and the tax on fuel will almost certainly beat the amount gained from the rail passenger.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

There are ways of fixing that

What needs fixing?

 

[JonathanH]

Close the line and make people drive?

I'm not being completely facetious, all revenue effectively goes to the Government and the tax on fuel will almost certainly beat the amount gained from the rail passenger.

I'm not being completely facetious either. It costs £9.00 to go from East Croydon to Brighton for the day with a railcard on a Thameslink train at the weekend. A peak time return ticket in the other direction without a railcard costs £44.50 (£28.80 Thameslink only).

Putting that weekend fare up to £18.00 would most likely not halve demand.

 

[Basil Jet]

After all the expensive infrastructure work to support 12 car running?

Which reminds me, loads of platforms were lengthened to 12-car as part of the TL programme, but since AFAIK the 24 tph has never happened, are there platforms that were lengthened to 12-car which have never seen a 12-car train?

 

[Bald Rick]

Which reminds me, loads of platforms were lengthened to 12-car as part of the TL programme, but since AFAIK the 24 tph has never happened, are there platforms that were lengthened to 12-car which have never seen a 12-car train?

I’m 99% sure that 12 coach trains have called at every 12 coach platform in regular passenger service.

however the 12 coach platforms at Mill Hill Broadway (all platforms) and Radlett / Elstree (slows only) don’t see that many 12 coach trains calling, save for the late evening.

 

[317 forever]

I feel that stoppers/shuttles to/from Sutton, Orpington, Sevenoaks and St Albans, and maybe Luton, could transfer to TfL Rail. Through services to Bedford should remain with Thameslink though.

 

[Hadders]

I feel that stoppers/shuttles to/from Sutton, Orpington, Sevenoaks and St Albans, and maybe Luton, could transfer to TfL Rail. Through services to Bedford should remain with Thameslink though.

No point in having two TOCs running trains through the core. That'd just cause issues, especially during disruption.

 

[Wolfie]

No point in having two TOCs running trains through the core. That'd just cause issues, especially during disruption.

Yup. Change for the sake of it.