The housing crisis and ways to fix it?

[najaB]

Perfectly true, but immigrants get old and require care too, so we must find ways of dealing with these shortages without requiring an ever-increasing population (up by nearly 40% since WW2).

A very large percentage of immigrant workers leave the UK later in their careers or at retirement age. Of my father's cohort of soldiers, only something like 8 or 9 out of a hundred or so have made their permanent home in the UK. The majority returned to the Caribbean when they reached 40+.

By the way, the UK population growth since WW2 (37%) has been well behind the global average (301%).

So your answer is to allow another 7 billion people to settle in the UK then is it?

If you aren't going to engage in sensible, grown discourse...

 

[Domh245]

Perfectly true, but immigrants get old and require care too, so we must find ways of dealing with these shortages without requiring an ever-increasing population (up by nearly 40% since WW2). For example, the UK currently recruits trained medical personnel from abroad, resulting in shortages in poor countries, because a decade or so ago the training budgets were cut - we need to reverse this to provide career paths for people already here. The same is true for other skills we need e.g. engineering.

As @najaB has said, many migrants come here, earn (& send money back home) whilst working and then return back home for that much cheaper cost of living in their retirement. Indeed, with the weak pound and other barriers in place, I'd expect net migration to decrease markedly in the next few years

Unfortunately, whilst we absolutely should be promoting internal recruitment for required professions it still doesn't fix the issue of not enough working people for the burgeoning aging population. We need a fundamental reset of pay levels/taxation/care system/etc (which'll mean at least one generation of people loosing out badly) if we want a society that can continue without high levels of migration

 

[DynamicSpirit]

"Total long-term immigration by those of all citizenships (715,000)" according to https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics

I would have thought that, as far as measuring housing needs is concerned, what matters is net migration: Immigration minus emigration. Quoting immigration levels without factoring emigration isn't going to be very useful here.

 

[Grumbler]

I would have thought that, as far as measuring housing needs is concerned, what matters is net migration: Immigration minus emigration. Quoting immigration levels without factoring emigration isn't going to be very useful here.

316,000 according to Migrationwatch.

A very large percentage of immigrant workers leave the UK later in their careers or at retirement age. Of my father's cohort of soldiers, only something like 8 or 9 out of a hundred or so have made their permanent home in the UK. The majority returned to the Caribbean when they reached 40+.

By the way, the UK population growth since WW2 (37%) has been well behind the global average (301%).

If you aren't going to engage in sensible, grown discourse...

Look in the mirror!

 

[najaB]

Look in the mirror!

I'm going to give you the benefit of ignoring the racism that could be read into that statement (given that I stated that my father is a member of the Windrush generation), I'm not the one who suggested that 7 billion people were going to settle in the UK.

 

[philthetube]

Too many of the older generation occupy too much housing space. My father lived on his own in 3 bedroom house right up until shortly before he died. But many older people have deep roots in their community so, even if they can be persuaded to move home, they are unlikely to move long distances, unless it is to be close to their children and grandchildren.

It's not about "being expected to vacate your castle" as much as it is turning that asset into something that's actually suited to your needs. Why rattle around a mostly empty three-bedroom house when you can have a manageable bungalow and a hundred thousand pounds (or more) of cash to spend on holidays or to fund the grandkid's future?

Many elderly do not want to give up their homes as that is part of their inheritance for the kids, who in many cases will never afford to buy.

One possible solution could be to build quality flats for the elderly, Secure managed flats. Paid for by housing associations renting their houses, possibly in some cases with a surplus being returned to the house owner.

Benefits to the elderly person/couple would include.

Secure living environment.
No maintenance worries
Financially better off in many cases, energy efficient buildings lower council tax etc.
Retaining ownership of property
A residence likely for them to be able to stay in as they get older and more infirm.

 

[najaB]

One possible solution could be to build quality flats for the elderly, Secure managed flats. Paid for by housing associations renting their houses, possibly in some cases with a surplus being returned to the house owner.

That's an eminent suggestion. As you say, it has the dual benefit of allowing them to retain ownership of their larger property while enjoying a living space more suited to their needs. With the added benefit of having a ready-made community of people with whom they are more likely to have shared interests.

 

[Magdalia]

This is not primarily due to a baby boom, as was the case after WW2, but because of immigration, currently over 700,000 a year.

I don't know if you got that statistic from UKIP or the EDL, but the inbound immigrant contribution to UK population growth is projected to be 2.2 million over the next ten years, not 700,000 per annum:

The source for migration statistics is the independent Office for National Statistics, not the definitely not independent Migration Watch.

According to the Office for National Statistics recently published results of the 2021 Census, of the 3.5 million population increase in England and Wales between 2011 and 2021, about 1.5 million is due to excess of births over deaths, and about 2 million is due to net inward migration.

Given the change in the political climate, I think it reasonable to expect that net inward migration will be lower in 2021 to 2031 than it was in 2011 to 2021. That's less than 200,000 per year, not more than 700,000.

Increasing population is only one factor affecting availability of housing, new housebuilding and efficiency of use of the existing stock are also of significant importance.

 

[eldomtom2]

We need a fundamental reset of pay levels/taxation/care system/etc (which'll mean at least one generation of people loosing out badly) if we want a society that can continue without high levels of migration

Well if we want a society that can continue without continuous migration, the only option is to increase the birth rate...

 

[GS250]

That's an eminent suggestion. As you say, it has the dual benefit of allowing them to retain ownership of their larger property while enjoying a living space more suited to their needs. With the added benefit of having a ready-made community of people with whom they are more likely to have shared interests.

I guess it depends on their condition too. My dad is 81, mum is 74 yet they wouldn't dream of giving up their large 3 bed house in Harrow. Both a very fit for their age. A larger than average garden is what gives them so much pleasure too. As of course is the ability to host a number of annual family gatherings. Would they want to be stuck in a retirement type apartment building? No chance. Dad literally broke his body at times to get that house and he has pretty much stated he wants to die there. I suspect his attitude is mirrored throughout his generation too. Naturally, if their health deteriorated then that may change things.

The above is actually a more modest example of this situation too. My late Grandmother lived in a small 3 bed and despite our protestations simply wouldn't move from her house. Her health was failing into her 90s but she refused to move. You have to remember this generation lived through WW2 so struggle was met with a determination to carry on. In the event the staircase proved to be her demise but it was absolutely how she wanted to go. Not stuck in a home reliant on strangers.

I guess if both had been given a house at an early age (ie a council house) that was relatively low rent, then even if it had become a long term home, there would have been a far less emotive case to move somewhere smaller once it was logically time to downsize.

 

[Grumbler]

I'm going to give you the benefit of ignoring the racism that could be read into that statement (given that I stated that my father is a member of the Windrush generation), I'm not the one who suggested that 7 billion people were going to settle in the UK.

Members of my family are from an Asian background.

The source for migration statistics is the independent Office for National Statistics, not the definitely not independent Migration Watch.

According to the Office for National Statistics recently published results of the 2021 Census, of the 3.5 million population increase in England and Wales between 2011 and 2021, about 1.5 million is due to excess of births over deaths, and about 2 million is due to net inward migration.

Given the change in the political climate, I think it reasonable to expect that net inward migration will be lower in 2021 to 2031 than it was in 2011 to 2021. That's less than 200,000 per year, not more than 700,000.

Increasing population is only one factor affecting availability of housing, new housebuilding and efficiency of use of the existing stock are also of significant importance.

Population increase is not the only cause of the housing shortage, but eventually we will reach saturation point. That is why I think there needs to be a "Net Zero Population Increase" policy, i.e. setting a ceiling on immigration to no more than the emigration rate.

Regarding the ONS, trying to untangle their stats is problematic, for instance sometimes their figures are for England and Wales rather than the UK as a whole. I find the Migrationwatch site easier in that regard, if you think they are incorrect they ought to be challenged - I do not have any connection with it BTW.

 

[najaB]

Members of my family are from an Asian background.

Priti Patel.

Population increase is not the only cause of the housing shortage, but eventually we will reach saturation point. That is why I think there needs to be a "Net Zero Population Increase" policy, i.e. setting a ceiling on immigration to no more than the emigration rate

Population increase isn't a cause of the housing shortage. Failure to build appropriate housing is the sole cause.

 

[Grumbler]

Priti Patel.

Population increase isn't a cause of the housing shortage. Failure to build appropriate housing is the sole cause.

So what do you do when there's no more space, or there's not enough water etc.?

 

[najaB]

So what do you do when there's no more space, or there's not enough water etc.?

Deal with that when it's actually an issue. As I posted above, only 6% of the UK is built environment.

 

[philthetube]

The good news is that Snowden is not suitable for building, so when everywhere else is built on we can all join the queue to get to the top for recreation, as there will be nowhere else to go.

Grumbler, I am forced to think that you must spend all your time at home in front of a computer and have no appreciation of the real world outside

 

[Magdalia]

Regarding the ONS, trying to untangle their stats is problematic, for instance sometimes their figures are for England and Wales rather than the UK as a whole.

You can blame Scotland for that: Scotland postponed their census to 2022 because of Covid, whereas the rest of the UK did not. It will all become clear again once Scotland publish their 2022 census results.

there's not enough water etc.?

Water shortage is a potential constraint on population growth in the south and east of England, but it is not an issue in the rest of the UK.

only 6% of the UK is built environment.

Indeed, lack of space will never be a problem.

 

[Grumbler]

Deal with that when it's actually an issue. As I posted above, only 6% of the UK is built environment.

Most of the new housing is planned for England, where the built-up percentage is far greater than 6%. Any new major developments should therefore go to the other 3 nations of the UK, particularly Scotland, which are far less densely populated.

 

[GusB]

Most of the new housing is planned for England, where the built-up percentage is far greater than 6%. Any new major developments should therefore go to the other 3 nations of the UK, particularly Scotland, which are far less densely populated.

Er... there are new developments being built in Scotland. I can't speak for Wales or Northern Ireland, but I'm fairly sure that there are new developments being built there too.

 

[najaB]

Most of the new housing is planned for England, where the built-up percentage is far greater than 6%. Any new major developments should therefore go to the other 3 nations of the UK, particularly Scotland, which are far less densely populated.

England is about 10% built space.

 

[Bevan Price]

It's not about "being expected to vacate your castle" as much as it is turning that asset into something that's actually suited to your needs. Why rattle around a mostly empty three-bedroom house when you can have a manageable bungalow and a hundred thousand pounds (or more) of cash to spend on holidays or to fund the grandkid's future?

That is only one point of view. People often do not want to move because they like, and are familiar with the area in which they live.
In some areas, moving to somewhere smaller means moving to an older, 2 bedroom terraced house in a less desirable area, sometimes without a garden. . Bungalows often cost almost as much as conventional houses.

 

[david1212]

Many elderly do not want to give up their homes as that is part of their inheritance for the kids, who in many cases will never afford to buy.

One possible solution could be to build quality flats for the elderly, Secure managed flats. Paid for by housing associations renting their houses, possibly in some cases with a surplus being returned to the house owner.

Benefits to the elderly person/couple would include.

Secure living environment.
No maintenance worries
Financially better off in many cases, energy efficient buildings lower council tax etc.
Retaining ownership of property
A residence likely for them to be able to stay in as they get older and more infirm.

For a plan like this to work the total package of costs for rent of the flat, management of the block of flats and managing the rental of the retained house would have to be no more than the rental from the home.

My aunt moved from an owned outright larger than average 3 bedroom house to a flat, one of a block of 12 or so. The costs of moving took a chunk out of the difference between the 'ticket' sale and purchase prices. Gradually the annual maintenance charge went up reaching well over £2000 a year. If the flat had been sheltered housing with monitoring that would have been added to the charge.

When I found this out a couple of years ago I did a crude ' back of an envelope ' calculation and worked out lower cost to build a wetroom to the rear of my house, which would add value offsetting the cost, and use the current dining room as the bedroom than move. At current energy prices the savings of an energy efficient flat would need to be allowed for.

That is only one point of view. People often do not want to move because they like, and are familiar with the area in which they live.
In some areas, moving to somewhere smaller means moving to an older, 2 bedroom terraced house in a less desirable area, sometimes without a garden. . Bungalows often cost almost as much as conventional houses.

To move from this three bedroom house to a two ( one double, one single ) bedroom one living room bungalow on a nearby road after costs I would be out of pocket.

 

[E27007]

The shortage of housing is a shortcoming of governance of our society.
We have much data in the form of the 10-yearly census returns and birth/marriage/death registrations for our Civil Service to be able to provide forecasts for our long-term dynamic needs in the form of essential infrastructure to support our population, houses, schools, hospitals, transport, energy and taxation income.
Those forecasts could be used for budget planning and long-term borrowing.
The cynic within me is saying the Civil Service compile such forecasts from the census, but the Politicians either cherry-pick or ignore them, and housing / hospitals / schools are low on the Govt list of priorities.

 

[ComUtoR]

So what do you do when there's no more space, or there's not enough water etc.?

Stop having kids.

It's not about "being expected to vacate your castle" as much as it is turning that asset into something that's actually suited to your needs. Why rattle around a mostly empty three-bedroom house when you can have a manageable bungalow and a hundred thousand pounds (or more) of cash to spend on holidays or to fund the grandkid's future?

My home isn't just for me. My home is for guests and family to come and stay. My home is a safe space for times of need and where support can be provided. My home is a place to live and a place to pass to others when life ends.

Its not just about a granny living on her own in a mansion.

 

[Magdalia]

The shortage of housing is a shortcoming of governance of our society.
We have much data in the form of the 10-yearly census returns and birth/marriage/death registrations for our Civil Service to be able to provide forecasts for our long-term dynamic needs in the form of essential infrastructure to support our population, houses, schools, hospitals, transport, energy and taxation income.
Those forecasts could be used for budget planning and long-term borrowing.
The cynic within me is saying the Civil Service compile such forecasts from the census, but the Politicians either cherry-pick or ignore them, and housing / hospitals / schools are low on the Govt list of priorities.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) was formed about 30 years ago by merging the Office for Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS), which did what it said on the tin, and the Central Statistical Office (CSO), which did the economic statistics, and was part of the Cabinet Office.

Back then there was little understanding of how demography influenced economics, and 30 years on that understanding hasn't improved very much. And it isn't just the population total that matters, it is also about the statisticians' favourite, the population broken down by age and sex.

Fortunately, we are now in the position where we have up to date 2021 census information (for England and Wales). There's no excuse for not using it.

 

[najaB]

Fortunately, we are now in the position where we have up to date 2021 census information (for England and Wales). There's no excuse for not using it.

Not even that the facts conflict with political ideology?

 

[DarloRich]

Is there a housing crisis or is there an inability of people to buy thier first house?

 

[najaB]

Is there a housing crisis or is there an inability of people to buy thier first house?

UK houses are, on average, smaller, less energy efficient and more expensive to rent/buy than in most OECD countries. This means that people in the UK pay a high price for poor quality housing.

Table below shows rent (blue bars) and mortgage (triangles) as a proportion of income:


Source: https://www.oecd.org/els/family/HC1-2-Housing-costs-over-income.pdf

While the UK is middle of the table for each, as noted above our houses are smaller and less energy efficient meaning that we get less for our money and spend more heating it.

Edit: More instructive chart later in the document. This one shows the percentage of the population of each OECD country spending more than 40% of their income on housing. For reference, spending more than 33% of income on housing is considered to be the desired upper limit:



(UK is second in the list at ~23% with only New Zealand higher at ~25%)

 

[deltic]

Immigration has very little impact on housing demand. The biggest impact is reducing household size.

Essex in 1921 had a population of around 1.5m which has grown to 1.9m by 2021. The number of residential dwellings over the same time period grew from around 300,000 to 650,000. That is the number of homes doubled while the population increased by only 25%. We have a higher proportion of people living on their own than ever before.

The shortage of housing is a shortcoming of governance of our society.
We have much data in the form of the 10-yearly census returns and birth/marriage/death registrations for our Civil Service to be able to provide forecasts for our long-term dynamic needs in the form of essential infrastructure to support our population, houses, schools, hospitals, transport, energy and taxation income.
Those forecasts could be used for budget planning and long-term borrowing.
The cynic within me is saying the Civil Service compile such forecasts from the census, but the Politicians either cherry-pick or ignore them, and housing / hospitals / schools are low on the Govt list of priorities.

The government regularly forecasts how much housing is required by area - it is local politicians who are in the anti-growth coalition as few people want additional housing in their area and hence local councillors tend to oppose housing allocations.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Immigration has very little impact on housing demand. The biggest impact is reducing household size.

Essex in 1921 had a population of around 1.5m which has grown to 1.9m by 2021. The number of residential dwellings over the same time period grew from around 300,000 to 650,000. That is the number of homes doubled while the population increased by only 25%. We have a higher proportion of people living on their own than ever before.

Well, yes, if you try to average over the last 100 years you're going to come to the conclusion that smaller household sizes is the main factor - for the simple reason that the demographic changes that lead to smaller households have been a continuous feature of UK life throughout most of the last 100 years, but population increase due to high immigration has only really been significant for the last 15-20 years. By using those figures, you're basically comparing 100 years of demographic changes with 15-20 years of high immigration. I would imagine that if you looked at figures covering - say - the last 20 years, you'd get a different picture.

The government regularly forecasts how much housing is required by area - it is local politicians who are in the anti-growth coalition as few people want additional housing in their area and hence local councillors tend to oppose housing allocations.

Yes, I think you're correct there. Local NIMBY opposition to housebuilding is surely one of the biggest reasons we don't have more houses (although not the only reason).

 

[telstarbox]

Immigration has very little impact on housing demand. The biggest impact is reducing household size.

Essex in 1921 had a population of around 1.5m which has grown to 1.9m by 2021. The number of residential dwellings over the same time period grew from around 300,000 to 650,000. That is the number of homes doubled while the population increased by only 25%. We have a higher proportion of people living on their own than ever before.


The government regularly forecasts how much housing is required by area - it is local politicians who are in the anti-growth coalition as few people want additional housing in their area and hence local councillors tend to oppose housing allocations.

I'm surprised by those numbers so are you using the same definition of Essex there? A big part of it became the London Boroughs of Barking etc in the 1960s.