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The public want more restrictions, not less

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edwin_m

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Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/when-will-it-all-go-wrong-for-the-tories-johnson.219414/

Some contributors to this thread would do well to remember that public opinion is very much not line with their views on Covid restrictions. The public wants more of them not less, and I think most people would rather trust a scientist than some of the Tory nutjobs who opposed restrictions in the votes this week. The LibDems also, rather suprisingly, also oppose them, although Vince Cable seems to support Covid passes.
 
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bramling

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Some contributors to this thread would do well to remember that public opinion is very much not line with their views on Covid restrictions. The public wants more of them not less, and I think most people would rather trust a scientist than some of the Tory nutjobs who opposed restrictions in the votes this week. The LibDems also, rather suprisingly, also oppose them, although Vince Cable seems to support Covid passes.

Yet interestingly the population don’t seem to be voting on the basis of restrictions - on the contrary given how the Labour vote has essentially not improved at all, despite the Johnson antics.
 

Dai Corner

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I'd have said 'The public' can impose what restrictions on themselves they wish, generally speaking.
 

Bungle73

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That’s not what I’ve been seeing people say on social media.
 

35B

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Yet interestingly the population don’t seem to be voting on the basis of restrictions - on the contrary given how the Labour vote has essentially not improved at all, despite the Johnson antics.
If you're referring to the North Shropshire by-election, then I'd suggest that's a broad competence by-election at a time when the government are enduring a self-induced kicking, rather than "about" any particular policy. I'd suggest the way that overtly anti-restrictions parties lost their deposits gives a better insight into the political salience of restrictions.
 

MikeWM

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Quite hard to draw any particular conclusions from a by-election, but the result from last night seems pretty bad for both Conservative and Labour to me - though I'd agree that it is probably not much to do with Covid either way.

I know Labour basically didn't campaign, but it is still pretty damning for Kier Starmer that it appears there was general agreement that the 'obvious' alternative was the Lib Dems, even though under Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 Labour were comfortably in second place behind the Tories with the Lib Dems way behind. The Lib Dems only got 5% of the vote in 2017 vs Labour's 30%!
 

nw1

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Are the public in favour of further restrictions? I suppose it depends what the restrictions are.

Perhaps some of the softer Plan B measures, yes.

But I doubt there is widespread support for further lockdowns. I suspect the remaining supporters of lockdown would be restricted to a) people who are either at risk of severe Covid or people close to them are at risk of severe Covid or b) people who are at no risk of the financial and psychological consequences of lockdown.

I also doubt many people support travel restrictions which are futile, given how each mutation finds its way round the world in any case in spite of them.
 

greyman42

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I was out in York on Wednesday afternoon/early evening and the place was packed, including pubs, so it would seem that the local population and visitors to York are not in favour of restrictions?
 

yorksrob

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I think it's a bit of a mixed bag with the public from my conversations. Some have been really spooked by the latest numbers and speculation around the Omacron variant. The sentiment that "were repeating the same mistakes as march 2020" is something I've heard a couple of times (even though the vaccination programme means that the current situation is in no way comparable).

On the other hand, some people I know who were more Pro restriction last year, are confident enough to want the freedom to make their own risk assessments and decide what level of social mixing they do.
 

gg1

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Says who?
Says the respondents to this opinion poll conducted earlier this month, those in favour outnumber those against by a margin in excess of 2:1 :

Would you support or oppose banning people who have not been vaccinated against coronavirus being banned from visiting public places such as non-essential shops and events?
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mcil69c5ve/YouGov - Restrictions on unvaccinated people.pdf
Strongly support: 32%
Tend to support: 30%
Tend to oppose: 12%
Strongly oppose: 14%


In fact virtually every opinion poll conducted by YouGov on the subject shows a majority in favour of current or imminent COVID restrictions, more examples, all from the past few weeks:

How much would you mind, if at all, showing a Covid pass (proof of vaccination or a negative test) when attending large events or venues?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/15/64fa8/1
I wouldn’t mind at all 63%
I wouldn’t really mind 17%
I would mind a fair amount 5%
I would mind a lot 10%
Don’t know 4%

MPs are due to vote on Covid regulations today, including making masks compulsory in indoor spaces likes shops, theatres and cinemas, and requiring people to show they are vaccinated or have a clear test in order to access nightclubs or large venues. If you were a Member of Parliament, do you think you would vote for these measures to be introduced, or against them?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/14/1e433/1
Vote for all of them 58%
Vote for some of them, but not for others 19%
Vote against all of them 12%
Don’t know 10%

The government has announced that it will reinstate rules requiring people to wear face masks in most indoor venues (but not pubs and restaurants) in England from Friday. Do you support or oppose this change?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/09/18830/1
Strongly support 53%
Somewhat support 23%
Somewhat oppose 8%
Strongly oppose 11%
Don't know 6%

The government advice in England has changed so that people who can work from home are now asked to do so. Do you support or oppose this change?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/13/93212/3
Strongly support 42%
Tend to support 34%
Tend to oppose 7%
Strongly oppose 6%
Don’t know 10%

And on the subject of scientific advice:

How confident are you, if at all, in the scientific advice the government is being given regarding coronavirus?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/07/de45d/3
Very confident 13%
Fairly confident 44%
Not very confident 20%
Not confident at all 13%
Don’t know 10%
 

bramling

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I think it's a bit of a mixed bag with the public from my conversations. Some have been really spooked by the latest numbers and speculation around the Omacron variant. The sentiment that "were repeating the same mistakes as march 2020" is something I've heard a couple of times (even though the vaccination programme means that the current situation is in no way comparable).

On the other hand, some people I know who were more Pro restriction last year, are confident enough to want the freedom to make their own risk assessments and decide what level of social mixing they do.

It doesn’t exactly help when they’re hearing dire predictions of doom, in particular hysteria-inducing terms like “tsunami of infections”, and now more recently the Ferguson death predictions.

Nonetheless, this doesn’t seem to be translating into *actions*, as everywhere is as busy as ever. Perhaps some think their mask protects them?!
 

nw1

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I think it's a bit of a mixed bag with the public from my conversations. Some have been really spooked by the latest numbers and speculation around the Omacron variant. The sentiment that "were repeating the same mistakes as march 2020" is something I've heard a couple of times (even though the vaccination programme means that the current situation is in no way comparable).
It's very hard to understand why people are comparing now to March 2020. Then, no-one was vaccinated and no-one had natural immunity.

And do such people want an immediate and full lockdown?

Is the theory that if the peak is pushed into the spring and summer, we'll be better able to cope with it?
On the other hand, some people I know who were more Pro restriction last year, are confident enough to want the freedom to make their own risk assessments and decide what level of social mixing they do.
 

Darandio

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Says the respondents to this opinion poll conducted earlier this month, those in favour outnumber those against by a margin in excel of 2:1 :

Ahh, good old surveys. Must be true then.

The same surveys that have been telling me that 94% of adults in my area are wearing masks when visiting shops or using public transport. As someone using public transport and doing some contract work in one of these shops I can see with my own eyes they are wrong by around 40%.
 

bramling

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Says the respondents to this opinion poll conducted earlier this month, those in favour outnumber those against by a margin in excess of 2:1 :

Would you support or oppose banning people who have not been vaccinated against coronavirus being banned from visiting public places such as non-essential shops and events?
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mcil69c5ve/YouGov - Restrictions on unvaccinated people.pdf
Strongly support: 32%
Tend to support: 30%
Tend to oppose: 12%
Strongly oppose: 14%


In fact virtually every opinion poll conducted by YouGov on the subject shows a majority in favour of current or imminent COVID restrictions, more examples, all from the past few weeks:

How much would you mind, if at all, showing a Covid pass (proof of vaccination or a negative test) when attending large events or venues?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/15/64fa8/1
I wouldn’t mind at all 63%
I wouldn’t really mind 17%
I would mind a fair amount 5%
I would mind a lot 10%
Don’t know 4%

MPs are due to vote on Covid regulations today, including making masks compulsory in indoor spaces likes shops, theatres and cinemas, and requiring people to show they are vaccinated or have a clear test in order to access nightclubs or large venues. If you were a Member of Parliament, do you think you would vote for these measures to be introduced, or against them?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/14/1e433/1
Vote for all of them 58%
Vote for some of them, but not for others 19%
Vote against all of them 12%
Don’t know 10%

The government has announced that it will reinstate rules requiring people to wear face masks in most indoor venues (but not pubs and restaurants) in England from Friday. Do you support or oppose this change?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/09/18830/1
Strongly support 53%
Somewhat support 23%
Somewhat oppose 8%
Strongly oppose 11%
Don't know 6%

The government advice in England has changed so that people who can work from home are now asked to do so. Do you support or oppose this change?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/13/93212/3
Strongly support 42%
Tend to support 34%
Tend to oppose 7%
Strongly oppose 6%
Don’t know 10%

And on the subject of scientific advice:

How confident are you, if at all, in the scientific advice the government is being given regarding coronavirus?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/12/07/de45d/3
Very confident 13%
Fairly confident 44%
Not very confident 20%
Not confident at all 13%
Don’t know 10%

I’m a little wary of some of the stuff surrounding the unvaccinated, since it seems very clear many people are under misapprehensions about the ability of the vaccines to inhibit transmission. Indeed, I can point to an example known to me where this misapprehension led to a fatal outcome.

But one way or other, none of this seems to be following through into the way people are choosing to behave. Which brings us to the point made here numerous times that people seem to vote on the basis of restrictions being applied to *others*, whilst cherry-picking what they apply to themselves.

We saw a lot of that last year - if I had a pound for every post on social media along the lines of “I went to X, and was utterly shocked and appalled to find it was busy”.

It’s also worth adding that these straw-poll surveys are rather loaded, as they encourage people to nail their colours to the proverbial mast without a consideration of the consequences. If you asked people “Do you support more restrictions if it’s likely to lead to sustained high inflation?” you might well get a different answer, assuming the average Joe Public knows what inflation is, of course.
 

yorksrob

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It doesn’t exactly help when they’re hearing dire predictions of doom, in particular hysteria-inducing terms like “tsunami of infections”, and now more recently the Ferguson death predictions.

Nonetheless, this doesn’t seem to be translating into *actions*, as everywhere is as busy as ever. Perhaps some think their mask protects them?!

Indeed. I think that a lot more people do have confidence that the vaccine programme has made a difference and are prepared to carry on their lives (moreso than Prof Ferguson, so it seems).

It's very hard to understand why people are comparing now to March 2020. Then, no-one was vaccinated and no-one had natural immunity.

And do such people want an immediate and full lockdown?

Is the theory that if the peak is pushed into the spring and summer, we'll be better able to cope with it?

Yes, I find the view difficult to fathom as well.

If this variant is spreading as fast as they're saying, there's no chance of pushing it into the spring or summer anyway. A week or two later into January maybe !
 

bramling

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Indeed. I think that a lot more people do have confidence that the vaccine programme has made a difference and are prepared to carry on their lives (moreso than Prof Ferguson, so it seems).

It’s also well known that, right through this, people have tended to over-estimate the level of risk posed. I forget the exact figures, but there was a survey on Sky News (of all places) where it was shown people were considerably over-estimating both the average age of mortality, and the statistical risk of mortality for each age group.

If people are going to make judgements on whether there should be restrictions, they also need to quality themselves by furnishing themselves with basic data to inform their position. I realise there are some data holes in respect of Onicron, but this wasn’t the case previously.

I’d also add that it’s probably a safe bet too that a good number of people fail to appreciate the difference between “of Covid” and “with Covid”. Without wishing to be too cynical towards the wider populace, remember the toilet rolls!

Another point to add, is that many people are under the misapprehension that restrictions are to “keep me safe”, or more particularly to “stop me catching Covid”. Whilst given the messaging this misapprehension is understandable, the purpose of restrictions has *never* been to achieve that, even with shielding (otherwise it would have been permanent). All the restrictions have been to avoid too many people having Covid at any one time. The government doesn’t give a stuff if you or I catch it.
 
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LSWR Cavalier

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I favour more/continuing restrictions, in particular for beneficial side-effects: to slow down the economy and reduce use of energy and resources.
 

yorksrob

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It’s also well known that, right through this, people have tended to over-estimate the level of risk posed. I forget the exact figures, but there was a survey on Sky News (of all places) where it was shown people were considerably over-estimating both the average age of mortality, and the statistical risk of mortality for each age group.

If people are going to make judgements on whether there should be restrictions, they also need to quality themselves by furnishing themselves with basic data to inform their position. I realise there are some data holes in respect of Onicron, but this wasn’t the case previously.

I’d also add that it’s probably a safe bet too that a good number of people fail to appreciate the difference between “of Covid” and “with Covid”. Without wishing to be too cynical towards the wider populace, remember the toilet rolls!

There's seems to have been a shift from overestimated personal risk to risk of the NHS collapsing in people's thoughts.
 

yorkie

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Some contributors to this thread would do well to remember that public opinion is very much not line with their views on Covid restrictions.
I'd be curious to know how many people you regularly see to talk to, be it at work, social or sporting events, etc. Where do you get this idea from?
The public wants more of them not less
Some people do want others to be restricted (but are not particularly keen to restrict themselves) and that has always been the case, but I do not think the majority of the public think this way. If it was true, then how do you explain people's behaviour being generally the opposite of that?

Yes there are people cancelling social events right now but this is a minority of people (yes a sizeable one and enough to cause problems for businesses) and many of those are actually doing so not because of a fear of the virus but actually because of a fear of having to isolate over the time when they are hoping to see family members within the coming 10 days.
and I think most people would rather trust a scientist than some of the Tory nutjobs who opposed restrictions in the votes this week.
Scientists have a broad range of views on this matter and I'd rather trust the sensible scientists than some of the Labour nutjobs who want us all locked down.

The LibDems also, rather suprisingly, also oppose them, although Vince Cable seems to support Covid passes.
People voted for the major party that was least supportive of authoritarian measures and that is good in my view :)

I'd have said 'The public' can impose what restrictions on themselves they wish, generally speaking.
True but those who are pro-restriction are more keen on imposing restrictions on others; they won't necessarily follow restrictions themselves.

Their ethos is all about imposing authoritarianism. They reject voluntary measures and see Sweden as acting irresponsibly.
That’s not what I’ve been seeing people say on social media.
Assuming this is a reply to @edwin_m , I agree. With the caveat that social media always amplifies the extreme voices and of course there will always be vocal people on both sides; nevertheless the tide is turning and there is a clear majority now against restrictions.
If you're referring to the North Shropshire by-election, then I'd suggest that's a broad competence by-election at a time when the government are enduring a self-induced kicking, rather than "about" any particular policy. I'd suggest the way that overtly anti-restrictions parties lost their deposits gives a better insight into the political salience of restrictions.
Many people see their vote as wasted if it is not for one of the major parties; leaving people politically homeless is not a sign that people agree with all the policies of major parties. People will vote for parties that have policies they disagree with because it is unlikely that all policies will align. Just because the major parties are broadly in favour of restrictions does not mean the general public are. Lib Dems are opposed to vaccine passports and therefore may be seen in the eyes of many as the least bad viable option in terms of Covid restrictions.
 

bramling

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I favour more/continuing restrictions, in particular for beneficial side-effects: to slow down the economy and reduce use of energy and resources.

If one wants to take that position for those reasons, then fine, it’s a perfectly credible position to take (though one which I can’t see getting too much support).

However it’s completely wrong to use Covid as a proxy for trying to make this argument. Indeed, it devalues it, by making it appear the argument doesn’t stand on its own two feet.

Likewise with the work from home brigade who wish to use Covid as a means of bringing in improvements to their personal work-life balance arrangements.
 

Darandio

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I favour more/continuing restrictions, in particular for beneficial side-effects: to slow down the economy and reduce use of energy and resources.

A strange take. What about the other side-effects? Things such as routine treatments being cancelled leading to unneccessary future deaths? Decimation of mental health? Businesses going to the wall with the resultant job losses?

It's not that I disagree with those two things being a benefit, it's just that there are much worse things that outweigh them.
 

gg1

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Ahh, good old surveys. Must be true then.
They're a lot closer to the truth than the opinions expressed in the echo chamber which is this sub forum. The views expressed by the majority here are very much minority views amongst the general public.

If the results of the surveys were very close you would have a point but when the figures are 62% for tighter restrictions to 26% against, attempting to argue that in reality the majority are against is desperately clutching at straws,

The same surveys that have been telling me that 94% of adults in my area are wearing masks when visiting shops or using public transport. As someone using public transport and doing some contract work in one of these shops I can see with my own eyes they are wrong by around 40%.
I take it you haven't considered the possibility that those people you see on public transport and in shops aren't a representative sample of the local population, ie those most concerned about Covid and more likely to wear masks are also less likely to use public transport and visit shops?
 

yorksrob

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I favour more/continuing restrictions, in particular for beneficial side-effects: to slow down the economy and reduce use of energy and resources.

The only problem with that approach is that you're diverting people away from activities that can be done relatively locally with lower carbon input (such as eating and drinking), to ordering manufactured tat and shipping it across the globe !
 

Failed Unit

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I'd have said 'The public' can impose what restrictions on themselves they wish, generally speaking.
Hit the nail on the head here. Most people I talk to are not scared of Covid itself. There fear is the isolation. With a positive test today ruining whatever plans they had for Christmas, they are choosing to avoid contact. Come January they will go about their business as normal.

some of the restrictions are odd. Wales and the nightclubs to name one and the long queues for the Covid expresses into France today. If it is that much of a concern why not do it now?
 

yorkie

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I was out in York on Wednesday afternoon/early evening and the place was packed, including pubs, so it would seem that the local population and visitors to York are not in favour of restrictions?
Busy on Thursday too. The vocal minority are staying at home but they do not speak for the majority who are still going out.
Says who?
Those who support restrictions are more likely to be in work from home jobs, have fewer social contacts, be less sociable people, generally less fit & healthy and generally less critical to the economy. They are entitled to their views but they do not represent the majority and I am titled to object to their views and I will not stop calling them out for as long as they are preaching their nonsense.
I favour more/continuing restrictions, in particular for beneficial side-effects: to slow down the economy and reduce use of energy and resources.
This is complete nonsense as Covid testing and various other measures consume resources. The days of lockdowns where factories shut are long gone and it's not remotely on topic for this debate.
Hit the nail on the head here. Most people I talk to are not scared of Covid itself. There fear is the isolation. With a positive test today ruining whatever plans they had for Christmas, they are choosing to avoid contact. Come January they will go about their business as normal.
I agree.
some of the restrictions are odd. Wales and the nightclubs to name one and the long queues for the Covid expresses into France today. If it is that much of a concern why not do it now?
Because it's all for show and Drakeford likes to throw his weight around.
Why do you wish for the economy to slow down?
If @LSWR Cavalier wishes to reply on the forum it would need to be posted in a new thread.

They're a lot closer to the truth than the opinions expressed in the echo chamber which is this sub forum. The views expressed by the majority here are very much minority views amongst the general public.
Who do you talk to, and where? I talk to people at work, in pubs/restaurants, at sports events and the vast majority who give a view are unanimously against restrictions.
If the results of the surveys were very close you would have a point but when the figures are 62% for tighter restrictions to 26% against, attempting to argue that in reality the majority are against is desperately clutching at straws,
YouGov polls are notoriously unreliable for these sorts of things and are generally done by the sort of people who have a lot of time on their hands and work from home; see previous posts on the subject.
I take it you haven't considered the possibility that those people you see on public transport and in shops aren't a representative sample of the local population, ie those most concerned about Covid and more likely to wear masks are also less likely to use public transport and visit shops?
I think the people you talk to are unrepresentative of the general population.

There are clear geographical divides as well as generational divides (and all have exceptions)
It's very hard to understand why people are comparing now to March 2020. Then, no-one was vaccinated and no-one had natural immunity.
Some people are vaccine effectiveness deniers.
And do such people want an immediate and full lockdown?
Some people do; they tend to be the sort of person that doesn't see the bigger picture, does not consider the long term effects, underestimates the ability of the virus to continue spreading regardless, tends to work from home (or be retired) etc...
Is the theory that if the peak is pushed into the spring and summer, we'll be better able to cope with it?
I am not sure what their logic is; some of them may think that but most pro-restriction people seem to think that restrictions don't delay infections and make the problem go away. You would have thought they'd realised that was wrong over a year ago, but these people are not always the brightest sparks
 
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yorksrob

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Hit the nail on the head here. Most people I talk to are not scared of Covid itself. There fear is the isolation. With a positive test today ruining whatever plans they had for Christmas, they are choosing to avoid contact. Come January they will go about their business as normal.

Spot on for most I think (myself included).
 

nw1

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A strange take. What about the other side-effects? Things such as routine treatments being cancelled leading to unneccessary future deaths? Decimation of mental health? Businesses going to the wall with the resultant job losses?

It's not that I disagree with those two things being a benefit, it's just that there are much worse things that outweigh them.

We can always go for greener forms of energy without having things like lockdowns anyway.
 

Andyh82

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The news agenda seems to focus on ‘mixed messages’ and people saying ‘how come you can’t go to work but you can go out after work’ and the ‘be cautious’ line isn’t clear enough

These people want an exact list of restrictions to be provided with no personal thinking required

Also those on the left often don’t seem to understand what the economy is, by keeping stuff open people say ‘typical Tories, putting money before lives’, they assume shops and hospitality open only benefits fat cat Tory voting bosses.
 
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