The upcoming German elections 2025

[brad465]

I went to Dresden at the beginning of 2023 and there was this extremely noisy/aggressive mile long AfD convoy which went past and they had the flags of Russia, Germany and Saxony on the cars and they had weird slogans to do with 'peace' in German as well (I can't remember what exactly).

Just going to add in a news story here and set this up as a new topic as suggested by @Springs Branch

German election: Final push as frontrunner Merz vows to lead in Europe - BBC News

Germany's rival political leaders take their fight for votes right to the last minute before a pivotal election.

www.bbc.com

Germany's rival political leaders will take their fight for votes right to the last minute in a push that reflects the pivotal nature of Sunday's election, not just for their country but for Europe as a whole.
Conservative frontrunner Friedrich Merz told supporters that under his leadership, Germany would take responsibility in Europe, and that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would be consigned to the political margins once more.
He will end his Christian Democrat party's campaign with a rally in Munich, while his rivals will make a final appeal in a TV "speed-dating" programme with voters.
For months German politics has been paralysed by the collapse of the previous government.
Now, hopes have been raised across Europe that this vote will bring some certainty to the EU's biggest democracy and its biggest economy, which has struggled to escape from lingering recession.

Look at most projections/recent election results in Germany and the AfD's heartlands are all in former East Germany. That doesn't mean they don't do well elsewhere, but all their constituency leads are in former EG land. EG is still far behind the rest of the country, despite major levelling up programmes (that put UK levelling up pledges to shame). What this shows is how difficult both levelling up and cultural change really is.

The equivalents of course are the rustbelt in the US and the "Red Wall" in the UK, but the difference is they became run-down through globalisation outsourcing their industrial heritage, whereas East Germany was deliberately weighed down by a flawed economic and political ideology for decades, and three decades is not enough to completely reverse this.

 

[Acfb]

Look at most projections/recent election results in Germany and the AfD's heartlands are all in former East Germany. That doesn't mean they don't do well elsewhere, but all their constituency leads are in former EG land. EG is still far behind the rest of the country, despite major levelling up programmes (that put UK levelling up pledges to shame). What this shows is how difficult both levelling up and cultural change really is.

The equivalents of course are the rustbelt in the US and the "Red Wall" in the UK, but the difference is they became run-down through globalisation outsourcing their industrial heritage, whereas East Germany was deliberately weighed down by a flawed economic and political ideology for decades, and three decades is not enough to completely reverse this.

I'm aware that Saxony is the strongest part of Germany for the AfD (one projection has them on 36% there for Sunday's election) and it has generally been the most socially conservative-authoritarian part of Germany since reunification so that makes sense. Rather worryingly the AfD is now doing uniformly well across the whole of Germany though in all the western Bundesländer and has increasing support among younger voters. I really don't get the new generalised appeal of the AfD at all, they are THAT extreme in contrast to the alt right in France, Netherlands, Italy, Austria etc who have charismatic leaders at least.

 

[Tetchytyke]

If I'm honest the whole situation regarding Ukraine and Russia with Russia claiming victimhood has just further pushed my own view that these populist parties popping up are all just grifters who seek to gain power regardless of consequence. They've seen their supporters take in pro-Russia stances, presumably from a dissatisfaction with their own state, and decided to promote these views further instead of shooting them down as disinformation.

It's more the other way around. Russia is funding these parties and so they parrot Russian talking points.

Some of it is blatant and in open sight: George Galloway getting paid ludicrous sums of money for presenting a fairly crappy show on Russia Today that nobody watched. Some of it is more hidden and tangential: Arron Banks and Jim Mellon, two of the biggest Brexit tubthumpers, made their millions in 1990s Russia.

It's not just Russia though. It's curious how so many of our media moguls are incredibly far-right. Not just Murdoch and not just in the Anglophone world: the CEO and major shareholder of Axel Springer SE, owner of Bild and Die Welt, has some interesting things to say about Muslims. No wonder Mr Doepfner is so happy to let Elon Musk eulogise about the AfD on the front page of Die Welt. And if Bild, one of the world's biggest newspapers, is fluffing up the AfD at every opportunity, it's no wonder that people are voting for them.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm aware that Saxony is the strongest part of Germany for the AfD (one projection has them on 36% there for Sunday's election) and it has generally been the most socially conservative-authoritarian part of Germany since reunification so that makes sense. Rather worryingly the AfD is now doing uniformly well across the whole of Germany though in all the western Bundesländer and has increasing support among younger voters. I really don't get the new generalised appeal of the AfD at all, they are THAT extreme in contrast to the alt right in France, Netherlands, Italy, Austria etc who have charismatic leaders at least.

I suspect Trumps intervention will actually be negative for the AfD and whilst they will do considerably better than last elections Germany will row back from the brink.

 

[brad465]

It's not just Russia though. It's curious how so many of our media moguls are incredibly far-right. Not just Murdoch and not just in the Anglophone world: the CEO and major shareholder of Axel Springer SE, owner of Bild and Die Welt, has some interesting things to say about Muslims. No wonder Mr Doepfner is so happy to let Elon Musk eulogise about the AfD on the front page of Die Welt. And if Bild, one of the world's biggest newspapers, is fluffing up the AfD at every opportunity, it's no wonder that people are voting for them.

There is an emerging split in the right wing, at least in the UK, as a result of the latest Ukraine situation. Several right wing politicians and a number of outlets sympathetic to that cause have condemned the US betrayal of Ukraine and/or Putin. Richard Tice even got taken apart by Julia Hartley-Brewer on the matter. In a way this is good at working out which parts of the right are being bankrolled by Russian interests vs those that don't. On the far-left it's harder to tell, while some of those like Galloway are getting paid, others just align with it because their "anti-capitalism/US" point of view matters more than anything else, so will happily side with their enemies.

I suspect Trumps intervention will actually be negative for the AfD and whilst they will do considerably better than last elections Germany will row back from the brink.

The opinion polling trend shows the AfD appear to have peaked, although I don't see them being lower than 2nd. There are plenty of coalition options that can keep the AfD from power based on current projections, but they will need to deliver and hold out until Trump, Musk, Putin, etc. are spent forces. One good thing about a PR system here, is while an extreme party can gain more representation, foreign interference is much harder to pull off, as no single party can easily run the country.

Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(Image from Wikipedia of the trend graph of opinion polls for German political parties leading up to this weekend's election, with the CDU/CSU party in the lead, the AfD 2nd, SPD 3rd, Greens 4th and others around or below 5%.)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There is an emerging split in the right wing, at least in the UK, as a result of the latest Ukraine situation. Several right wing politicians and a number of outlets sympathetic to that cause have condemned the US betrayal of Ukraine and/or Putin. Richard Tice even got taken apart by Julia Hartley-Brewer on the matter. In a way this is good at working out which parts of the right are being bankrolled by Russian interests vs those that don't. On the far-left it's harder to tell, while some of those like Galloway are getting paid, others just align with it because their "anti-capitalism/US" point of view matters more than anything else, so will happily side with their enemies.

The opinion polling trend shows the AfD appear to have peaked, although I don't see them being lower than 2nd. There are plenty of coalition options that can keep the AfD from power based on current projections, but they will need to deliver and hold out until Trump, Musk, Putin, etc. are spent forces. One good thing about a PR system here, is while an extreme party can gain more representation, foreign interference is much harder to pull off, as no single party can easily run the country.

Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(Image from Wikipedia of the trend graph of opinion polls for German political parties leading up to this weekend's election, with the CDU/CSU party in the lead, the AfD 2nd, SPD 3rd, Greens 4th and others around or below 5%.)

Going to be a CDU/SPD coalition as they both wont work with the AfD.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Going to be a CDU/SPD coalition as they both wont work with the AfD.

I do wonder if the SPD will want to take part in government. They've received such a kicking during this term that they might be better off outside government and simply supporting the CDU/CSU Union on a confidence/supply basis.

One big problem with another Grand Coalition is that these Union-SPD coalitions are notoriously stagnant, which could help the AfD later on. Having said that, if there's a big Union victory and the SPD lose badly, they might just agree to a coalition where the SPD can return to focusing on their traditional issues while leaving the economy and defence to the Union.

 

[Acfb]

I do wonder if the SPD will want to take part in government. They've received such a kicking during this term that they might be better off outside government and simply supporting the CDU/CSU Union on a confidence/supply basis.

One big problem with another Grand Coalition is that these Union-SPD coalitions are notoriously stagnant, which could help the AfD later on. Having said that, if there's a big Union victory and the SPD lose badly, they might just agree to a coalition where the SPD can return to focusing on their traditional issues while leaving the economy and defence to the Union.

I'm 90% sure it will be a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition or a CDU/CSU-SPD-Green coalition (both under Friedrich Merz) if it falls short. They tried a Jamaica coalition with the Greens+FDP in 2017 but the FDP pulled the plug on the agreement so the SPD was forced to come back to do a deal with the CDU/CSU.

What has surprised me in this campaign is the slight revival of Die Linke who were almost looking dead and buried.

 

[brad465]

What has surprised me in this campaign is the slight revival of Die Linke who were almost looking dead and buried.

The pro-Russian part of their party split off IIRC to become the BSW. With that wing gone and the campaign helping Die Linke gain coverage, these together will have helped their support.

 

[Cloud Strife]

What has surprised me in this campaign is the slight revival of Die Linke who were almost looking dead and buried.

Die Linke are a very strange party. They should have been finished as a result of the BSW's rise, but yet again, they've revived themselves and most likely buried the BSW, as it's unlikely that the BSW will win three "basic mandates", nor will they reach the 5% threshold. Die Linke have also really benefited from a strong and determined stance against the CDU accepting votes from the AfD, and Sahra Wagenknecht has run a very weak campaign for the BSW. The other thing is that they've run a very slick online campaign, to the point of possibly winning a plurality of votes among young voters. If anything, there's a good chance that they'll finish 2nd in some East German districts.

The FDP are an interesting question: they're at risk of not getting in, but I'd expect them to pick up quite a few votes as a protest vote against the CSU, as well as doing well in Hesse and NRW. A vote for the FDP is really de facto a vote for a Union chancellor anyway, so I suspect some Union votes will vote for them just to make sure that they make it into the Bundestag and to water down the AfD's influence further.

CDU/CSU-SPD-Green coalition (both under Friedrich Merz) if it falls short.

I do wonder if the CSU will accept the Greens. The relations between the two are terrible, and while the CDU can live with the Greens, I'm not convinced that Markus Söder of the CSU will agree, especially as he's made quite strong statements against them in the past. Then again, I would be surprised right now if the Union-SPD won't win a majority.

 

[Acfb]

Seems to be a higher turnout in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia than last time. This surely works in the AfD's favour.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Seems to be a higher turnout in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia than last time. This surely works in the AfD's favour.

Not necessarily, because this could also be going towards Die Linke there, or even the CDU. Hard to tell to be honest, because East German results are always a bit strange and difficult to predict. Having said that, a high AfD result there is very bad news for the FDP.

 

[Acfb]

Not necessarily, because this could also be going towards Die Linke there, or even the CDU. Hard to tell to be honest, because East German results are always a bit strange and difficult to predict. Having said that, a high AfD result there is very bad news for the FDP.

We'll see I suppose. Differential turnout is hard to work out. The AfD dipped overall last time but consolidated their position in those strongholds. I do think the SPD is in deep trouble though. A high turnout could also help the Greens or CDU/CSU elsewhere though maybe. It's reasonable to assume the AfD has the most potential from non voters in East Germany though.

 

[brad465]

Whatever happens, we don't have to wait long to find out. Polls close at 5pm GMT (6pm local time in Germany) and from memory in 2021 the results were known really quickly, so we don't have to go to bed wondering what will happen in terms of seat makeup (although a coalition agreement will take much longer to thrash out).

 

[Acfb]

Unclear if a grand coalition has a majority or not (about 45% combined) and if BSW and/or FDP have made it into the Bundestag or not. AfD is 2nd on 19.5-20% so not quite as bad as I feared.

 

[brad465]

Two exit polls in, more or less in line with opinion polling, but the FDP and BSW are borderline on getting seats which could alter coalition arrangements significantly:

German election latest: Conservative Merz predicted to win and far-right to make big gains - follow live

The economy, immigration and security have been some of the key issues for voters in this year's election.

www.bbc.co.uk

The exit poll from the ZDF broadcaster has just arrived:

• CDU - CSU - 28.5%
• AFD -20%
• SPD - 16.5%
• Greens -12%
• Die Linke - 9%
• FDP - 5%
• BSW - 5%

Here is another set of exit poll results, this time from German broadcaster ARD:

• CDU - CSU - 29%
• AFD - 19.5%
• SPD - 16%
• Greens - 13.5%
• Die Linke - 8.5%
• FDP - 4.9%
• BSW - 4.7%

 

[Cloud Strife]

Two exit polls in, more or less in line with opinion polling, but the FDP and BSW are borderline on getting seats which could alter coalition arrangements significantly:

Looking at these polls, the AfD have not done anywhere near as well as they would have hoped. The SPD also haven't performed very very badly, Die Linke have done remarkably well, and the FDP (as I thought) have probably done just enough to sneak into the Bundestag. The only surprise is that the BSW managed to poll so high, and it'll be interesting to see where their vote came from.

The ZDF poll gives a Union-SDP-FDP coalition, while the ARD one gives Union-SDP enough by themselves. It's too close to call for sure, but with the Greens out of power and the SPD getting their worst ever result in a federal election, the CDU will almost certainly dominate the next government. The AfD may come second, but their actual influence is likely to be far smaller than they would have hoped, especially with the Greens out of power.

edit: I'm not sure if this is actually real, but it's floating around Twitter just now:



If it's true, then this proves that German unification has failed miserably.

 

[brad465]

Looking at these polls, the AfD have not done anywhere near as well as they would have hoped. The SPD also haven't performed very very badly, Die Linke have done remarkably well, and the FDP (as I thought) have probably done just enough to sneak into the Bundestag. The only surprise is that the BSW managed to poll so high, and it'll be interesting to see where their vote came from.

The ZDF poll gives a Union-SDP-FDP coalition, while the ARD one gives Union-SDP enough by themselves. It's too close to call for sure, but with the Greens out of power and the SPD getting their worst ever result in a federal election, the CDU will almost certainly dominate the next government. The AfD may come second, but their actual influence is likely to be far smaller than they would have hoped, especially with the Greens out of power.

edit: I'm not sure if this is actually real, but it's floating around Twitter just now:

View attachment 175185

If it's true, then this proves that German unification has failed miserably.

I don't know if that map applies to this election, but it's definitely applied to previous elections. I'd say the attempt to reunify was made with the best intentions, but decades of having two states with vastly different cultures and wealth merge into one is, as you say, a recipe for trouble.

 

[Acfb]

Looking at these polls, the AfD have not done anywhere near as well as they would have hoped. The SPD also haven't performed very very badly, Die Linke have done remarkably well, and the FDP (as I thought) have probably done just enough to sneak into the Bundestag. The only surprise is that the BSW managed to poll so high, and it'll be interesting to see where their vote came from.

The ZDF poll gives a Union-SDP-FDP coalition, while the ARD one gives Union-SDP enough by themselves. It's too close to call for sure, but with the Greens out of power and the SPD getting their worst ever result in a federal election, the CDU will almost certainly dominate the next government. The AfD may come second, but their actual influence is likely to be far smaller than they would have hoped, especially with the Greens out of power.

Seems like a damp squib for everybody TBH apart from Die Linke whose success with younger voters is genuinely impressive. Turnout also projected to be the highest post reunification turnout, slightly higher than the 82.2% achieved in 1998. Seems like the high turnout has resulted in AfD voters and non AfD voters cancelling each other out. We did see this in last year's Saxony state election.

All the data is on Der Spiegel website, the BSW pulled voters from across the spectrum but the majority came from Die Linke, SPD and non voters and a negligible amount came from the AfD.

 

[styles]

I mean the true question is what will the coalition be.

The AfD in opposition will be brutal. It would be like having 20% of our MPs being Reform. Farage gets enough airtime as it is, let alone if there were 70 of them.

But if the Conservatives take the AfD into government, they're going to have to make significant concessions, and the AfD will come out well from it.

It seems likely that even though the AfD aren't the largest vote winner, they're going to have a very significant level of influence over the Bundestag.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Unclear if a grand coalition has a majority or not (about 45% combined) and if BSW and/or FDP have made it into the Bundestag or not. AfD is 2nd on 19.5-20% so not quite as bad as I feared.

Trumps daft intervention over Ukraine probably spooked plenty of voters to reconsider their intentions.

 

[Cloud Strife]

But if the Conservatives take the AfD into government, they're going to have to make significant concessions, and the AfD will come out well from it.

The CDU won't enter government with the AfD. They have no reason to, they can form a coalition with the SPD and Greens if needs be, possibly with the CSU staying out of government.

The results are coming in now, and it's clear that Die Linke have had an incredible night. They've won at least three "direct mandates", and their results in general have been quite astounding across the country. It looks like a lot of non-voters came out to vote for them against the AfD, particularly younger voters. Leipzig II incredibly went to Die Linke too.

The AfD themselves have torn the big two to shreds in much of East Germany, with a huge switch in many places from the SPD to the AfD. But again, the BSW have done well in places like Frankfurt (Oder), which traditionally has a strong Russian influence. The worrying thing for the big two is that the AfD have started to win direct mandates in West Germany as well. It's too early to tell exactly what happened, but it looks like the SPD in those seats lost ground to Die Linke, which allowed the AfD to slip in.

The FPD look like they're almost certainly out though. They've done poorly in West Germany, and it looks like their voters punished them by switching to the CDU.

The end result seems to be pretty clear though: if the BSW reach 5% (and they're on the verge of it), then we have CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens and potentially a quite shaky government. If the BSW don't reach 5%, then it's a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, likely with very little real influence from the SPD.

Having said this: I expect that the next German government will put the American tech companies in their sights, and I expect Musk to potentially withdraw from Germany in a rage within a few months.

 

[brad465]

The end result seems to be pretty clear though: if the BSW reach 5% (and they're on the verge of it), then we have CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens and potentially a quite shaky government. If the BSW don't reach 5%, then it's a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, likely with very little real influence from the SPD.

The BSW projection is flipping between 4.9 and 5% a lot at the moment, it will be very tight how this pans out. The CSU leader appears to have backtracked slightly on opposing the Greens in coalition, so this might not be as difficult as before, but it won't be solid if this is the necessary coalition.

Having said this: I expect that the next German government will put the American tech companies in their sights, and I expect Musk to potentially withdraw from Germany in a rage within a few months.

Merz was interviewed earlier this evening and was particularly scathing of election interference from the US, likening it to Russian interference, while specifically naming Musk in a derogatory manner. He also seemed keen on getting Europe to move away from the US on defence, which is quite the contrast from his "Atlantist" position last year.

Looks like the BSW missed out on seats by a whisker, getting 4.97%. The Union have 208 seats and the SPD 121, which together would be enough for a grand coalition:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/feb/23/german-election-live-olaf-scholz-alice-weidel-afd-friedrich-merz-germany-latest-news

Final results​

The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.

The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just failed to get in after reaching just 4.972% according to the official results page.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The BSW projection is flipping between 4.9 and 5% a lot at the moment, it will be very tight how this pans out. The CSU leader appears to have backtracked slightly on opposing the Greens in coalition, so this might not be as difficult as before, but it won't be solid if this is the necessary coalition.

It seems that the BSW have fallen short in the end, gaining 4.97% in the end. It's a tiny margin, but I suspect there will be quite a few people in both the SPD and CDU tonight breathing a deep sigh of relief. Die Linke will be laughing their heads off until the morning, especially as they've won a plurality of votes in Berlin on top of everything else. For what it's worth, I've got a soft spot for Die Linke after coming across them in Madgeburg last summer, and they gave my son a load of stuff - balloons, notebooks, pens, some toys, everything. They were cheerful about the fact that we can't vote in Germany, and they said that they're just happy to distribute these things. I might not agree with their ideology, but it was clear even then that they were a party supported by young people, and so it has been proven.

With the CDU leading the way, the CSU providing a large chunk of the coalition seats and the SPD suffering a massive defeat in some areas, Merz is probably free to implement his agenda for the next four years. I don't think the AfD will repeat this level of success in four years time, as the CDU will pour resources into the eastern states to break the AfD there.

It is absolutely insane how this election (and the future direction of Germany) hinged on no more than 13,435 votes missing for the BSW.

Final results (316 for a majority):

CDU/CSU Union: 28.6% (208)
AfD: 20.8% (151)
SPD: 16.4% (121)
Greens : 11.6% (85)
Die Linke: 8.8% (64)

The Union + SPD will have 329, so a comfortable enough majority. All in all, only the FDP have really lost tonight. The BSW project is probably over, and Die Linke will take back most of those who defected to the BSW in the first place.

The big takeaway for me is that the Eastern states have made it very clear that they reject the CDU, SPD and Greens.

Merz was interviewed earlier this evening and was particularly scathing of election interference from the US, likening it to Russian interference, while specifically naming Musk in a derogatory manner. He also seemed keen on getting Europe to move away from the US on defence, which is quite the contrast from his "Atlantist" position last year.

Given these results, I don't think Merz will have any problem dealing with Musk now. The German automakers will be quite happy to get rid of the Tesla factory in Berlin, and the amount of blatant and direct electoral interference by Musk cannot go unchecked.

Although I have quite the wry smile at a CDU leader complaining about election interference when they were responsible for one of the dirtiest elections in modern electoral history - the 1990 East German election.

 

[Yew]

It seems to me to be unlikely that any centrist coalition will make enough meaningful impact to the people to address the rise of alternative parties like AfD.

 

[Acfb]

It seems to me to be unlikely that any centrist coalition will make enough meaningful impact to the people to address the rise of alternative parties like AfD.

At least this will be counterbalanced by the Greens and die Linke also providing opposition. I'm not that optimistic about the future of German politics though. Merz has really played into the AfD's hands and has been criticised by the former CDU Bundespräsident Christian Wulff for focusing on immigration/being divisive.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It seems that the BSW have fallen short in the end, gaining 4.97% in the end. It's a tiny margin, but I suspect there will be quite a few people in both the SPD and CDU tonight breathing a deep sigh of relief. Die Linke will be laughing their heads off until the morning, especially as they've won a plurality of votes in Berlin on top of everything else. For what it's worth, I've got a soft spot for Die Linke after coming across them in Madgeburg last summer, and they gave my son a load of stuff - balloons, notebooks, pens, some toys, everything. They were cheerful about the fact that we can't vote in Germany, and they said that they're just happy to distribute these things. I might not agree with their ideology, but it was clear even then that they were a party supported by young people, and so it has been proven.

With the CDU leading the way, the CSU providing a large chunk of the coalition seats and the SPD suffering a massive defeat in some areas, Merz is probably free to implement his agenda for the next four years. I don't think the AfD will repeat this level of success in four years time, as the CDU will pour resources into the eastern states to break the AfD there.

It is absolutely insane how this election (and the future direction of Germany) hinged on no more than 13,435 votes missing for the BSW.

Final results (316 for a majority):

CDU/CSU Union: 28.6% (208)
AfD: 20.8% (151)
SPD: 16.4% (121)
Greens : 11.6% (85)
Die Linke: 8.8% (64)

The Union + SPD will have 329, so a comfortable enough majority. All in all, only the FDP have really lost tonight. The BSW project is probably over, and Die Linke will take back most of those who defected to the BSW in the first place.

What will the CDU have to give the SPD to get them in the coalition though?

 

[Cloud Strife]

What will the CDU have to give the SPD to get them in the coalition though?

I would expect not very much, to be honest. The migration question is the big one, and if Merz can get the SPD to agree to Danish-style curbs (which, let's not forget, were introduced by the Danish Social Democrats), then they probably will agree to certain things that won't have a dramatic impact on the CDU. In general, the SPD don't have much room to negotiate, and they need a peaceful 4 years as junior coalition partners to be able to figure out what to do next.

Generally speaking, the CDU are open to taking on debt to finance various things, and it's unlikely that the Greens and Die Linke will oppose loosening the debt brake. I would also suspect that the centrist parties and Die Linke will agree on some sort of plan for East Germany to demolish the AfD's base there, as the CDU and Die Linke can coexist, and Die Linke have electoral credibility there.

The big question is whether the SPD membership will accept a move towards Danish-style social democracy in which migration is seen as a threat to the working class, or if they'll keep on their current path.