Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

[Howardh]

I'm going out on a limb here, and it really is just a hunch, but it might- just might- be because the Conservative Party have chosen to make it a campaign of Theresa May vs Jeremy Corbyn.

Which is great, until Theresa May decides to go- with strength and stability- into hiding.

I have to admit to being a Corbyn-hater...up until the last few weeks when he has turned me round. Still think Labour would be performing better with Benn or Burnham (until he left to become Mayor) but I'm not as frightened of Corbyn as I was.

But..but...underneath it all the unions have been very quiet. I worry that a Corbynist government could take us back tot he 70's strikes-wise.

But I think I'd rather have that than the sort of Brexit the Tory's Disappearing Sweetheart will end up with.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I've never known a leader of any party plummet so quickly.

She'll still win, but it takes a certain kind of special to call an election at your own time of choosing, make it all about your personality because you had 30 percentage points' lead, and then bomb.

Although I'd make it all about my personality too if my Cabinet consisted of 20-watt politicians like J*r*my H*nt, Amber "the Silver Spoon" Rudd, and Boris Johnson.

 

[Howardh]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content...t000323213499.jpg?strip=all&w=960&quality=100
I rest my case, m'lud. Doesn't even say which party.

 

[DarloRich]

Just checked BBC - Corbyn has been in York today. No sign of May anywhere. Perhaps the bunker door has got stuck. Hopefully she can get out before the question time special this evening. it wouldn't look good if someone else had to go instead of her. oh, hang on......................

 

[AlterEgo]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content...t000323213499.jpg?strip=all&w=960&quality=100
I rest my case, m'lud. Doesn't even say which party.

Check the door, it's there, in size 8 font.

 

[Howardh]

double post

 

[Howardh]

Check the door, it's there, in size 8 font.

Oh, you're right!! Blimey, how can anyone miss that!
Wonder if, when it closes, underneath it says "Conservatives" "What a joke"

 

[Tetchytyke]

I rest my case, m'lud. Doesn't even say which party.

Now now, it does say which party.

It's in 12-point print on the door, right next to the legal lettering for The Kings Ferry.

I have to admit to being a Corbyn-hater...up until the last few weeks when he has turned me round. Still think Labour would be performing better with Benn or Burnham (until he left to become Mayor) but I'm not as frightened of Corbyn as I was.

I have never hated Corbyn. For a "socialist" who'll "take us back to the 70s", his politics are about as radical as David Owen's were when he formed the SDP. The unions can wibble all they want, it's been 30 years since Unite had any influence over anything, and the only union that achieves anything- the RMT- haven't been affiliated with Labour for over 13 years.

I don't think he'll make a good leader or PM, he's always been too much of a loose cannon, and he's always been best (like Dennis Skinner) at lobbing grenades from the back benches. But I happen to agree with the big wedge of his policies.

 

[northwichcat]

Why this particular thread has chosen to concentrate on a party leader rather than the many party candidates who will actually stand for election and are out and about electioneering on a daily basis beggars belief.

Again that is the fault of the Conservative Party not the people you are blaming.

As already mentioned there's the Theresa May campaign bus not the Conservative campaign bus.

You will probably have also got a mail merged letter from Theresa May which asks you to vote for her candidate of David Rutley opposed to saying the Conservative Party candidate is David Rutley.

The other night in her closing remarks in the debate Amber Rudd asked us to vote for Theresa May opposed to voting Conservative (which is impossible for most of the population!)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Theresa May is naff though isn't she Paul?

This election has exposed her as a shadow of a politician. A weak public speaker, an avoider of debate, and something of an island within her own party. It's been quite incredible.

I like how it's not okay to criticise the party leader when you relentlessly witter on about "Comrade Corbyn" etc - apply the same principles to May. She's a wuss. Admit it. Rattled doesn't cover it.

It still does not alter the case that it will be those candidates of all political persuasions who currently strive to win the seat they are standing for who will individually add their own constituency successful win to the total number of seats won by MPs of that party. Whether a party leader or a newcomer to the political fray, each can only win one seat.

I may have expressed my views about Jeremy Corbyn in past times, but anyone who has read all my postings since he was elected leader of the Labour Party have always made it clear he is naught but a figurehead for Momentum.

 

[Howardh]

Latest poll puts Labour on 40%< first time I think they have been that high. Tories still around 46%. Still means Tories win...but the majority she was craving for? But if Labour are around 40% does that means they are now taking votes off the Tories (like me) as previously the Tories have been taking the UKIP vote?

 

[phoenixcronin]

The Tory campaign really seems to be disintegrating. I still expect them to win, but I suspect their majority won't be very large, so it will basically be a humiliation for May.

To be honest I think the Tories deserve to be humiliated as May's arrogance and refusal to face the public is really shameful.

If Corbyn wasn't the alternative I'd be celebrating

 

[northwichcat]

Latest poll puts Labour on 40%< first time I think they have been that high. Tories still around 46%. Still means Tories win...but the majority she was craving for? But if Labour are around 40% does that means they are now taking votes off the Tories (like me) as previously the Tories have been taking the UKIP vote?

Picking one marginal seat at random (Warrington South)

Current prediction:
Con 46%
Lab 46%
LD 7%
Ind 1%

Last election (rounded to nearest half):
Con 44%
Lab 39%
UKIP 8%
LD 5.5%
Green 3%
TUSC 0.5%

So it seems the lack of UKIP and Green candidates for marginal seats is benefiting both Labour and the Conservatives but benefiting Labour more.

 

[Howardh]

Picking one marginal seat at random (Warrington South)

Current prediction:
Con 46%
Lab 46%
LD 7%
Ind 1%

Last election (rounded to nearest half):
Con 44%
Lab 39%
UKIP 8%
LD 5.5%
Green 3%
TUSC 0.5%

So it seems the lack of UKIP and Green candidates for marginal seats is benefiting both Labour and the Conservatives.

Seems similar to mine Bolton W; think mine was closer so based on this the Toryboy's out. But how do you work out that Labour can win the marginals when the Tories are still 3 - 10% in the polls; if they are that far ahead (it's still a substantial lead) then they should be winning the marginals?
Of course the demise of UKIP is a factor, but aren't their votes going to the Tories?

 

[DarloRich]

Here are the lists of Labour and Tory marignal targets. Lets see how many change colour:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Bolton West is 10th & Warrington South is 21st on the list of Labour targets and both need to go red if we are to win. The neighbouring constituency to mine, MK North is number 91 on that list. I can not see Labour winning that. I just cant see us taking back seats in Scotland or changing enough seats in England to red.

 

[me123]

Well I live in target seat number 4 and Labour have been notably absent from any campaigning. I've only just had a flier through, and it's significantly weaker than the others.

So if they can't put any effort in target seat number 4, I hold little hope of them gaining Bolton or Warrington.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

May I quote from the lyrics of a song by Doris Day......

"Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be,
The future's not ours to see,
Que sera, sera,
What will be, will be"

 

[Tetchytyke]

But how do you work out that Labour can win the marginals when the Tories are still 3 - 10% in the polls

The problem with national polls is that it doesn't matter how popular you are nationally, it is where you are popular that counts. Labour's vote went up in 2015, but largely only in places where they already had a safe majority.

The Tories have a majority of 12 seats. That majority was obtained by 1270 votes; if 636 people had voted differently, then the Tories would not have had a majority.

There is no reason why Labour cannot win somewhere like Derby North (majority 42) or Morley and Outwood (majority 422). Whether they will or not is an entirely different matter. But they can.

And when you're looking at a seat switching when 22 people vote the other way, opinion polling is pretty much meaningless.

 

[DarloRich]

Well I live in target seat number 4 and Labour have been notably absent from any campaigning. I've only just had a flier through, and it's significantly weaker than the others.

So if they can't put any effort in target seat number 4, I hold little hope of them gaining Bolton or Warrington.

interesting there is what happens to the Kippers. They may hold the balance of power.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I just cant see us taking back seats in Scotland or changing enough seats in England to red.

Ignore Scotland, the target now is not to win a majority but to minimise the Tories' majority.

It's going to be close. And it is depressing to see it reported that Labour are not out pounding the streets in places like Clywd.

It'll be interesting. And we won't really know until the Exit Polls, given that I don't think we can trust any of the polling companies (and certainly not the Tories at YouGov).

 

[northwichcat]

But how do you work out that Labour can win the marginals when the Tories are still 3 - 10% in the polls; if they are that far ahead (it's still a substantial lead) then they should be winning the marginals?

In 2015 the Conservatives increased their overall vote share, yet they lost marginals like Wirral West and City of Chester to Labour. Being first place in the polls certainly doesn't mean you're guaranteed to retain all your existing seats.

 

[DarloRich]

There is no reason why Labour cannot win somewhere like Derby North (majority 42) or Morley and Outwood (majority 422). Whether they will or not is an entirely different matter. But they can.

We SHOULD be winning seats like Derby North and Morely & Outwood. It a very poor show that we didn't hold them last time.

 

[ainsworth74]

interesting there is what happens to the Kippers. They may hold the balance of power.

You see I think this might be true in a number of places. In the Redcar constituency Labour have a majority of 10,000. But if the UKIP voters join the Tories on mass that's slashed to only around 2,000. It only then needs a few Labour voters to jump ship or a few other people to turn out and vote Tory and Redcar, of all places, could turn Blue!

Unlikely to be sure as this is classic Labour territory (always been a Labour seat since it was created in the 70s apart from 2010 - 2015 then again the Tees Valley now has a Tory Mayor so who knows!?!) but I do seriously think that where the UKIP voters end up going (assuming that they don't stick with UKIP) could be very important for a number of seats.

 

[DarloRich]

Ignore Scotland, the target now is not to win a majority but to minimise the Tories' majority.

It's going to be close. And it is depressing to see it reported that Labour are not out pounding the streets in places like Clywd.

It'll be interesting. And we won't really know until the Exit Polls, given that I don't think we can trust any of the polling companies (and certainly not the Tories at YouGov).

I am not sure it will be close in the end. Decent polls over the weekend will mean that next week we will see a mounting attack on Corbyn based on security, credibility, coalition of chaos, fiscal incompetence and his past links with committed democratic politicians who might, or might not, have been bad men in a previous life.

If May comes out of the bunker fighting and puts in a good display this evening on Question Time she can reverse some of the damage

 

[Tetchytyke]

I am not sure it will be close in the end.

I expect the Tories' majority to be about the 40-50 mark. Close enough; although obviously worse than 2015, not the disaster I was expecting a year ago.

 

[Butts]

So the SNP and Plaid would be excluded then?

Essentially what you've proposed there is a debate about England.

If you are going to have these debates why has there not been an "England Only" one ?

Wales,and Scotland have had their own so why not England ?

Leanne Wood has been on just about every one - would not be suprised to see her turning up on the next Scottish one

 

[northwichcat]

If you are going to have these debates why has there not been an "England Only" one ?

Wales,and Scotland have had their own so why not England ?

Leanne Wood has been on just about every one - would not be suprised to see her turning up on the next Scottish one

Because England doesn't make a fuss about wanting to be independent from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and doesn't blame all it's problems on not getting as much government funding as another country.

 

[DarloRich]

I expect the Tories' majority to be about the 40-50 mark. Close enough; although obviously worse than 2015, not the disaster I was expecting a year ago.

oh. Then agreed - 40 to 50 seems about right considering the number of Labour seats with small majorities

 

[RichmondCommu]

May I quote from the lyrics of a song by Doris Day......

"Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be,
The future's not ours to see,
Que sera, sera,
What will be, will be"

You've missed out several lyrics.

 

[RichmondCommu]

We SHOULD be winning seats like Derby North and Morely & Outwood. It a very poor show that we didn't hold them last time.

From what I hear the Conservatives will increase their majority in Derby North.