Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[DustyBin]

There is a lot of classic literature that I have never read, so I always think of it as a bit of an indulgence to read a book that I've already read before.

One of the few exceptions is 1984.

As a wise man once said (actually it was me, on this very forum!), in trying to write a warning Orwell inadvertently wrote the playbook…

It does feel that way.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Most leaders are staying under the radar for fear of attracting his ire and the very real risk of damaging consequences. It's good to stand up to a bully, but when the bully has charge of the world's largest economy and military then, frustrating as it seems, it's best to pick your battles.

My gut feeling is that most European and South American leaders are probably quietly discussing with each other about a post-US future. They don't really need to come into conflict with Trump, it's enough to just steadily reorient away from the dollar (in the case of South America) and military production (in the case of Europe). It won't be an overnight thing and doesn't need to be, but America will wake up in 20 years and realise that they've walked straight into a nightmare.

One thing that I do wonder is how long Musk will manage to cooperate with the Cabinet as a whole. He's going after things that could explode in Trump's face, such as the Department of Veterans Affairs, and one single wrong move (such as firing an actual veteran who has no history of partisanship) can and will have serious repercussions.

Having said all that, I think Trump's legacy might be in just destroying another business, America Inc. Why would anyone trust American companies at this point, knowing that Trump can and will stop you from using your own products?

 

[Howardh]

How far off are we from a Leeson-style crash, if the US stock market plummets, inflation rises and so on; and if so how will it affect the UK particularly interest rates, savings, pensions, dividends?

 

[Annetts key]

The stock market will continue to react. But like anything that is super large, the actual U.S.A. economy will take time before any nosedive.

Having said that, there are already predictions that it may go negative in the current quarter. And if most American importers pass on most or all of the extra costs of tariffs, that will drive inflation.

Then there is the effect on the labour market with all the former government employees no longer having a job.

Plus the effect on American goods that have lost their export market, e.g, where people in the countries that are reacting to what a Trump and or Musk have / are doing and instead buy elsewhere / products from other sources.

A trade war will definitely cause further problems for the U.S.A.

And of course, the defensive industry may find new orders drying up.

And Trump hasn’t got to cutting the military budget yet...

A key indicator that trouble is expected, is that the price of crude oil keeps falling, indicating that companies are not confident about buying any more than they have to because they see trouble ahead.

And yes, when the U.S.A. economy is in decline (recession), most of the world suffers as well.

Pensions and investments will see their valuations fall. Income and hence dividends for shares will fall. Not only in the U.S.A., but elsewhere too. The world we live in is very intertwined.

 

[Cloud Strife]

How far off are we from a Leeson-style crash, if the US stock market plummets, inflation rises and so on; and if so how will it affect the UK particularly interest rates, savings, pensions, dividends?

Tough question. While American tech stocks are falling, it's very possible that we're going to see European tech firms massively gaining from it, especially those working with open source technologies like RISC-V. I'd also look at things like Airbus, which is doing well on the back of American turmoil, and European defence companies are also looking very healthy indeed.

The key point is that we might also see a lot of money poured into producing European versions of American technology. We don't need the absolute latest and greatest, but we do need independent supply chains, and it's very possible that we're going to see American firms simply frozen out once we have suitable replacements.

 

[The Ham]

Tough question. While American tech stocks are falling, it's very possible that we're going to see European tech firms massively gaining from it, especially those working with open source technologies like RISC-V. I'd also look at things like Airbus, which is doing well on the back of American turmoil, and European defence companies are also looking very healthy indeed.

The key point is that we might also see a lot of money poured into producing European versions of American technology. We don't need the absolute latest and greatest, but we do need independent supply chains, and it's very possible that we're going to see American firms simply frozen out once we have suitable replacements.

There's also an amount of people (especially Canadians, but also Australians and Mexicans - the latter dropping Coke following Coke calling ICE on their own staff) looking to buy from anywhere other than the US, whilst that's going to harm US companies that may protect other countries from some of the impacts of the US suffering.

Canadians are doing some quite significant things, some stores are actively removing American products from their shelves, their country music performers are boycotting South by Southwest, their governments are banning American companies from even tendering for contracts and some contacts are being revoked (including one with Starlink).

There was already (pre Trump's second term) people talking about how global powers get replaced by another (so how the UK for replaced by the US) that was often expected to be China, however I was wondering if it might actually become the EU.

Ukraine had brought the EU much closer, to the point that the UK is also very much aligned with it on that. Trump has upset a lot of people over his behaviour on Ukrainian, especially in places like the UK where a significant number of people want to support Ukraine to the extent that all the press have been very critical of him and the likes of Reform are finding themselves having to be very careful in how supportive of Trump in fear of losing their support.

Since the US TikTok ban there's been a trend for non American content, as a lot of creators found that most of the negative comments stopped during the ban. There's also been a trend of non native English speaking people creating content in English as a way of bringing European people closer. Again they've found that there's been a lot of support, when before they were concerned about how people would react to their accent, including from a lot of British people saying that we tend not to have issues with accents given we've got so many of them.

It may well be that China still becomes the next super power, however the EU and the Commonwealth may well be the counter balance to them.

 

[BingMan]

The stock market will continue to react. But like anything that is super large, the actual U.S.A. economy will take time before any nosedive.

Having said that, there are already predictions that it may go negative in the current quarter. And if most American importers pass on most or all of the extra costs of tariffs, that will drive inflation.

Then there is the effect on the labour market with all the former government employees no longer having a job.

Plus the effect on American goods that have lost their export market, e.g, where people in the countries that are reacting to what a Trump and or Musk have / are doing and instead buy elsewhere / products from other sources.

A trade war will definitely cause further problems for the U.S.A.

And of course, the defensive industry may find new orders drying up.

And Trump hasn’t got to cutting the military budget yet...

A key indicator that trouble is expected, is that the price of crude oil keeps falling, indicating that companies are not confident about buying any more than they have to because they see trouble ahead.

And yes, when the U.S.A. economy is in decline (recession), most of the world suffers as well.

Pensions and investments will see their valuations fall. Income and hence dividends for shares will fall. Not only in the U.S.A., but elsewhere too. The world we live in is very intertwined.

And none of that will affect Trump's popularity

 

[brad465]

Next up, Trump increases tariffs on Canadian Steel and "Ah-loo-mee-num" to 50%, in retaliation for Ontario's retaliatory 25% energy export tariff:

Canada tariffs updates: White House halts plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium

US President Donald Trump had threatened to increase 25% tariffs on certain Canadian metals to 50%.

www.bbc.co.uk

Trump's post on Truth Social says: "Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on 'Electricity' coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff."

Yesterday, Ontario's Premier Doug Ford announced a 25% surcharge on US-bound electricity.

Roughly 1.5 million American homes and businesses in the northern border states of New York, Michigan and Minnesota will be impacted.

"President Trump's tariffs are a disaster for the U.S. economy. They're making life more expensive for American families and businesses," Ford said in a statement on Monday.

At Monday's news conference, Ford threatened to escalate further if the US increases their tariffs on Canada.

"I will not hesitate to increase this charge if necessary," he said. "If the US escalates, I will not hesitate to shut off electricity completely."

 

[DarloRich]

Did Trump also say he was going to buy a Tesla to ensure the company his boss runs is ok?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Did Trump also say he was going to buy a Tesla to ensure his the company his boss runs is ok?

The fact he had to say that is hilarious in itself....

Next up, Trump increases tariffs on Canadian Steel and "Ah-loo-mee-num" to 50%, in retaliation for Ontario's retaliatory 25% energy export tariff:

Canada tariffs updates: White House halts plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium

US President Donald Trump had threatened to increase 25% tariffs on certain Canadian metals to 50%.

www.bbc.co.uk

This will probably only end one way....

 

[DarloRich]

The fact he had to say that is hilarious in itself....

radical left lunatics are to blame. Republicans, Conservatives, and all great Americans should buy a Tesla right now!

 

[brad465]

This will probably only end one way....

Forgive my naivety, but what way were you thinking? To me it could be any one of actual war, depression/recession, revolution, or all of the above.

 

[SteveM70]

Did Trump also say he was going to buy a Tesla to ensure the company his boss runs is ok?

Yeah, but its an extra bigly one made of solid gold

 

[Lloyds siding]

Well, this could escalate...and it already has!

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The US imports 23% of its steel and 60% of its alumin(i)um from Canada. The immediate effect will be a severe increase in the cost of construction and manufacturing using those products in the US. There is a world-wide shortage of steel in particular so I doubt Canada will have any real difficulty in finding other markets for its product.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Forgive my naivety, but what way were you thinking? To me it could be any one of actual war, depression/recession, revolution, or all of the above.

Badly. Wasn't going to go into anymore detail than that!

 

[Cloud Strife]

It may well be that China still becomes the next super power, however the EU and the Commonwealth may well be the counter balance to them.

I could well see two new blocs emerging. One bloc with China and Africa in the lead, and the other bloc with the EU, South America plus some others like South Africa, Singapore, Canada etc. America would be completely frozen out as a result, and the two blocs would probably be quite happy to balance each other out.

Couldn't agree more with what you've written, incidentally. There is a very clear boycott of American interests going on, and given that Musk appears to be hell bent on destroying relations with staunch allies like Poland, it's only going to get worse for them. Trump really doesn't understand where this is going, although I don't think Musk is going to last more than 6 months maximum once the backlash starts. I'm already seeing Republican representatives push back against firing veterans, and the midterms will be a rout if it turns out that Musk has fired a huge amount of veterans from the federal agencies.

While the MAGA lot will cheer on every act of stupidity, Musk is going around calling all sorts of veterans 'traitors'. He's doing it now to Mark Kelly, but he's done it to others too. The veterans themselves are now apparently marching on Washington and other state capitals this weekend, which is just unbelievable: who would have predicted that Trump would be so quick to antagonise one of the most protected 'sacred cows' in American politics? And now they've apparently announced that 70,000 jobs will be cut at the Veterans Affairs department, which hires a lot of... veterans.

 

[jon0844]

I bet Trump and others think they can get Elon to do the dirty work then, in true Trump style, deny even knowing Elon when he gets thrown to the wolves.

The problem is Elon is going to do such irreparable damage that I am not sure how Trump or the GOP can ever get back from it.

I honestly don't know if Elon is smart enough to know the likely outcome. If he was, he'd be almost certainly making sure to feather his nest. I think he is doing that anyway, but I am not entirely sure he realises the harm he's doing to himself and his companies. Perhaps the bots on X are actually tricking him into thinking he's doing a great job as well as the people who still use it and believe everything they see. Oh the irony!

 

[Cloud Strife]

The problem is Elon is going to do such irreparable damage that I am not sure how Trump or the GOP can ever get back from it.

I think the litmus test here is what happens with the veterans. If Trump loses them, he loses the armed forces as a whole, and that pretty much means losing suburban America. The MAGA types will cheer, but there are a lot of Americans who have family members who are either in the military or ex-military, and this is one hell of a powerful voting block that swung heavily for Trump last time round.

I am truly shocked that Trump let Musk anywhere near them, and Musk has seemingly no idea just how powerful the veteran community is in the US. Upsetting Mark Kelly was a terrible move on his part, and he seems to be picking fights with people who you really shouldn't pick fights with.

 

[edwin_m]

Yeah, but its an extra bigly one made of solid gold

I guess that's one way to avoid using Canadian steel or a-loo-min-um.

 

[brad465]

Well that didn't last long:

Canada tariffs updates: White House halts plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium

US President Donald Trump had threatened to increase 25% tariffs on certain Canadian metals to 50%.

www.bbc.co.uk

US commerce secretary confirms plans dropped for 50% tariffs on Canadian metals
​

In addition to senior US trade adviser Peter Navarro, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has now also confirmed that the White House will no longer impose 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, according to the BBC's US media partner, CBS news.

Trump had earlier suggested a reversion to 25% tariffs could happen today.

The original 25% tariffs will still go into effect on Wednesday, Lutnick says.

 

[jon0844]

Is the USA going to impose tariffs on every other day from now on? I am sure businesses can get onboard with that.

What a total farce!

 

[JamesT]

Is the USA going to impose tariffs on every other day from now on? I am sure businesses can get onboard with that.

What a total farce!

Depends if other countries respond. The 50% steel and aluminium tariffs were a response to Ontario putting a tax on electricity exports. The Canadians dropped theirs so Trump will feel that his threat worked.

 

[Lloyds siding]

In just over 7 weeks Trump, and his lackeys, have broken agreements and coventions with military partners, trading partners, commercial allies, and also in the fields of foreign aid, health, scientific study, environment and the media; as well as terminating the employment of about 30,000 government employees so far. Or not, because the decisions are often overturned within hours, days , weeks. They have also insulted and belittled their allies, partners and anyone who dares to disagree or oppose them. Unsurprisingly, it is unlikely that anyone operating in these fields will trust the United States government ever again. But this is (probably) exactly what President Putin, sorry, President Trump wants.

 

[The Ham]

In just over 7 weeks Trump, and his lackeys, have broken agreements and coventions with military partners, trading partners, commercial allies, and also in the fields of foreign aid, health, scientific study, environment and the media; as well as terminating the employment of about 30,000 government employees so far. Or not, because the decisions are often overturned within hours, days , weeks. They have also insulted and belittled their allies, partners and anyone who dares to disagree or oppose them. Unsurprisingly, it is unlikely that anyone operating in these fields will trust the United States government ever again. But this is (probably) exactly what President Putin, sorry, President Trump wants.

Whilst i mostly agree, I'm not sure that Putin is quite as happy as you imply.

Whilst the US is alienating a lot of people, that's least to a strengthening of agreements with a lot of others.

For example the UK and Europe have become a lot closer and even with that happening it appears that support for Reform is not increasing (possibly even falling - but it's hard to be sure).

Likewise Europe is looking to increase military spending, it wasn't that long ago that the UK was talking about reducing the army further and that cyber security was more important than tanks, and whilst the latter is still important we could see our armed forces strengthened.

There's been talk about France and the UK providing nuclear weapons protection of other nations.

The elections in Germany didn't see as much support for the parties to the right as suspected - parties which would have likely been looking to replicate the nationalism and isolationism of America and or the softer version which there appeared to be within the UK (when we voted for Brexit). That was without the political games that the French had to go through to achieve the same result.

Canada is likely to be looking to trade more with the rest of the world, there's even been suggestions (unsure how serious) that they may even look to join the EU.

Even if they don't, they could be an easy ally if a European defence force starts to exist - which had also been brought back to the table.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is the USA going to impose tariffs on every other day from now on? I am sure businesses can get onboard with that.

Jonathan Freedland, writing in the Guardian, makes the point that this is a feature not a bug.

Donald Trump is turning America into a mafia state | Jonathan Freedland

The pattern is inescapable – with just one caveat: organised crime bosses occasionally display more honour, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland

www.theguardian.com

It’s hard for aides and opponents alike to keep up because power is exercised arbitrarily and inconsistently. Tariffs are imposed, then suspended. Indeed, one reason why import taxes so appeal to Trump is that they can be enforced instantly and by presidential edict. That extends to the exemptions Trump can offer to favoured US industries. As MSNBC’s Chris Hayes observed: “This is very obviously going to be a protection racket, where Trump can at the stroke of a pen destroy or save your business depending on how compliant you are.”

Businesses which behave may get exemptions from tariffs, as the auto industry has. Businesses which don’t behave? Well…

 

[edwin_m]

Businesses which behave may get exemptions from tariffs, as the auto industry has. Businesses which don’t behave? Well…

But this is likely to be reversed, or reversed again, as the drop of a MAGA hat. So even the apparent concession is of little benefit to businesses that plan their investment on timescales of years or decades, not hours or minutes.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But this is likely to be reversed, or reversed again, as the drop of a MAGA hat.

I think the point is that it’s the ‘protection racket’ model, businesses now won’t criticise Trump or his policies because these things can be changed quickly. The point is to keep business executives in a constant state of fear: will he or won’t he destroy my business at the stroke of a pen?

The whole Trump attitude to life has always been that of a mafia don.

 

[DerekC]

The thing that looks as though it might keep Trump in check is the market. Uncertainty for businesses = less investment = falling share prices.

 

[D6130]

The thing that looks as though it might keep Trump in check is the market. Uncertainty for businesses = less investment = falling share prices.

Well that certainly was the case for another Western leader whose name commenced with the letters Tru..