Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[OhNoAPacer]

Not Trump personally but Florida showing a possible wider future.
Having aggressively attacked immigration there is a shortage of workers, to counteract this there is a proposal working it's way through the state government to reduce, or eliminate, child labour protection laws.
There is a saying about the lunatics having taken over the asylum. In this case it looks like they are on the mental health board and setting policy!

 

[jon0844]

They won't need to worry about jobs not being done, as the jobs will go when Canadians, Brits and other mainland Europeans stop visiting Florida.

But, yes, letting 14 year olds work night shifts even on a school day does seem perfectly fine (sarcasm). Plus if they work for less than a certain number of days (i.e. conveniently 'get fired' before 90 days are up) they can be paid below minimum wage, and I assume also receive no benefits whatsoever.

 

[Falcon1200]

Should the USA provide aid to the stricken people of Myanmar, does that country have mineral resources which can be exploited in repayment?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Having aggressively attacked immigration there is a shortage of workers, to counteract this there is a proposal working it's way through the state government to reduce, or eliminate, child labour protection laws.

Florida really is a state of mind.

But I think we're going to see more of this elsewhere, because a lot of Americans are completely unaware that their economy is essentially built on cheap migrant labour. Still, the MAGA types will cheer, because many of them see nothing wrong with such barbaric practices.

 

[43096]

I’m not sure why Greenland have let Vance into the country.

They should have played the US at their own game with the entry requirements… “Do you intend to overthrow the government of Greenland?” As the answer to that is obviously “yes” they should have taken him in for questioning, let him rot in a cell for a couple of days, then deported him as a threat to national security.

 

[sor]

Florida's not even the first. Other states were leading the way before Trump came into power, such as Arkansas.

 

[SHD]

Should the USA provide aid to the stricken people of Myanmar, does that country have mineral resources which can be exploited in repayment?

Myanmar is not short on 14-year old children ripe for exploitation in Florida orange groves.

 

[najaB]

Myanmar is not short on 14-year old children ripe for exploitation in Florida orange groves.

Don't give them ideas!

 

[Magdalia]

They won't need to worry about jobs not being done, as the jobs will go when Canadians, Brits and other mainland Europeans stop visiting Florida.

I heard on the radio the other day that flights by Canadians to/from the USA are down by 70% compared to this time last year.

 

[Freightmaster]

I heard on the radio the other day that flights by Canadians to/from the USA are down by 70% compared to this time last year.

Fake News!

Everyone Saw The Headline: U.S.-Canada Airline Bookings Down 70%. It’s Wrong—Here’s What The Real Data Shows - View from the Wing

U.S. - Canada travel is down, and it's likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.

viewfromthewing.com

U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.

MARK

 

[Lloyds siding]

Should the USA provide aid to the stricken people of Myanmar, does that country have mineral resources which can be exploited in repayment?

Yes, it does. Currently the largest source of rare earths in the world. China has shut down many of its rare earth mines becuse of the pollution caused...and now imports from Myanmar. It's believed that one of the insurgent groups and the military government are promoting mining in Kachin province next to the border with China, with millions of dollars worth of ore being sold to China.

 

[Magdalia]

Fake News!

Everyone Saw The Headline: U.S.-Canada Airline Bookings Down 70%. It’s Wrong—Here’s What The Real Data Shows - View from the Wing

U.S. - Canada travel is down, and it's likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.

viewfromthewing.com

(article which claims that the 70% figure is wildly exaggerated)



MARK

I'm more inclined to believe OAG, who are described by IATA as "a leading global travel data provider", than some blogger who only has conjecture and no alternative data source apart from one flight that they were on.

 

[AlterEgo]

I'm more inclined to believe OAG, who are described by IATA as "a leading global travel data provider", than some blogger who only has conjecture and no alternative data source apart from one flight that they were on.

As would I be.

OAG is a large data aggregator, they are a very reliable source. Gary is just there for clicks.

 

[The Ham]

I'm more inclined to believe OAG, who are described by IATA as "a leading global travel data provider", than some blogger who only has conjecture and no alternative data source apart from one flight that they were on.

Indeed, especially given that both can be right.

For example that one flight might have been full but other flights had been cancelled.

Likewise, bookings might be down 70% and so flights in (say) 3 months time might appear emptier from then onwards, however those flights currently happening might be bookings made (say) 6 months ago and so might not be impacted by the reduction in bookings yet.

 

[najaB]

Likewise, bookings might be down 70% and so flights in (say) 3 months time might appear emptier from then onwards, however those flights currently happening might be bookings made (say) 6 months ago and so might not be impacted by the reduction in bookings yet.

This, exactly. OAG may well be looking at bookings for summer vacations, etc.

 

[Richard Scott]

This, exactly. OAG may well be looking at bookings for summer vacations, etc.

I know not the same route but a few people who I know have bookings to go to USA but said they wouldn't have gone if they hadn't already booked so may take a few months to see the impact as you indicated?

 

[nlogax]

I know not the same route but a few people who I know have bookings to go to USA but said they wouldn't have gone if they hadn't already booked so may take a few months to see the impact as you indicated?

Same. Two trips already planned and paid for between May and July, including time in Oklahoma, Texas and Florida.

Beyond that I'm not sure I'll be making further US trips for the foreseeable.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I heard on the radio the other day that flights by Canadians to/from the USA are down by 70% compared to this time last year.

Not just that, but also a general "no way" feeling among Canadians towards the US. Travel agencies are not offering trips to the US, and the weak Canadian dollar is also not helping things. 70% is likely an exaggeration, but there are confirmed reductions of 7-25% in terms of seats to the US from Canada in the summer season. Florida airports are down about 30%, and American airlines are also cutting capacity to Canada.

There's also the border issue: Americans and Canadians alike are reporting a lot of hostility at border crossings. Why bother going to Florida on holiday from Toronto if you can fly to somewhere else without any of the hassle?

 

[GusB]

I'm getting to the stage where nothing that the Trump regime does is any great surprise but I found this article to be rather disturbing:

‘It reminds you of a fascist state’: Smithsonian Institution braces for Trump rewrite of US history

Normally staid historians sound alarm at authoritarian grasping for control of the premier US museum complex

www.theguardian.com

The US president, who has sought to root out “wokeness” since returning to power in January, accused the Smithsonian of trying to rewrite history on issues of race and gender. In an executive order entitled “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History”, he directed the removal of “improper, divisive or anti-American ideology” from its storied museums.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-trump-administration-smithsonian-institution
The move was met with dismay from historians who saw it as an attempt to whitewash the past and suppress discussions of systemic racism and social justice. With Trump having also taken over the John F Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, there are fears that, in authoritarian fashion, he is aiming to control the future by controlling the past.

“It is a five-alarm fire for public history, science and education in America,” said Samuel Redman, a history professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “While the Smithsonian has faced crisis moments in the past, it has not been directly attacked in quite this way by the executive branch in its long history. It’s troubling and quite scary.”

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I don't know if it's been reported here but a family member resident in the US has told me that tourism in Maine is facing a serious crisis as hotel bookings from Canadians are down 90% on this time last year. Whatever the actual numbers it would appear anti-American feelings among Canadians are running rather strongly.

 

[Annetts key]

This, exactly. OAG may well be looking at bookings for summer vacations, etc.

From here

OAG

Canada - US Aviation: Airlines Respond to Weakening Demand​

Written by John Grant 26 March 2025

• Airline capacity between Canada and the US has been reduced through to October 2025, with the most significant cuts occurring during the peak travel months of July and August.
• Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year.

The latest weekly update of OAG schedules data suggests that airline capacity between Canada and the US remains broadly unchanged for the summer season. However, a closer look at recent weeks reveals a downward trend in airline capacity and a sharp decline in forward bookings.

Scheduled Airline Capacity from Canada to the US​

Comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on 3rd March and those filed on 24th March, the table below shows that over 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October. The most noticeable cuts are in July and August - the two peak summer season months - where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5%.

Scheduled Airline Capacity from Canada to the US​

Scheduled Seats Filed on 3rd March 2025 vs 24th March 2025​

Month	3rd March 2025	24th March 2025	% Change
April	1,542,200	1,509,293	-2.1%
May	1,724,135	1,669,672	-3.2%
June	1,837,590	1,790,543	-2.6%
July	1,976,352	1,906,617	-3.5%
August	1,996,805	1,926,806	-3.5%
September	1,811,738	1,782,668	-1.6%
October	1,731,817	1,711,575	-1.2%

Canada to the US: Forward Bookings Collapse​

Despite airline schedule changes and capacity being redirected to other markets, a more troubling trend emerges from forward demand data: future flight bookings between Canada and the US have collapsed.
Using forward booking data from a major GDS supplier, we've compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season. The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.

Forward Booking Snapshot: Canada – US Market​

March 2024 vs March 2025 Summer Season Bookings​

Month of Booking Snapshot	April	May	June	July	August	September
March 2024	1,218,570	817,912	649,878	516,344	370,228	233,160
March 2025	295,982	226,980	184,720	147,679	103,914	65,680
% Change	-75.7%	-72.2%	-71.6%	-71.4%	-71.9%	-71.8%

For all scheduled airlines operating between the United States and Canada any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and when taking place at such short notice. Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market. For those that are still planning to travel there may be some airlines offering particularly cheap airfares over the next few months as they seek to stimulate demand but for the airlines it will be a nervous few months, especially as the traditional "snowbird" market from Canada to the US could be badly impacted next year if the situation doesn’t improve quickly.

 

[The Ham]

I've heard reports of Canadians who own property in Florida selling up, if that's true then the number of flight bookings isn't going to improve any time soon.

It may also explain why there's not much of a change in flights recently as they do their last trip to gather up any personal items and/or deal in person with anything which needs that for the sale (bearing in mind that whilst in the UK it's possible to do most things online, the US can be a bit behind us when it comes to such an ability).

 

[sor]

I don't know if it's been reported here but a family member resident in the US has told me that tourism in Maine is facing a serious crisis as hotel bookings from Canadians are down 90% on this time last year. Whatever the actual numbers it would appear anti-American feelings among Canadians are running rather strongly.

although not for this thread per se, it seems to have percolated into Canadian politics where an election is to be held in April. The Canadian Tories, at least at the federal level, are fairly pro-Trump and pro-US and that has backfired totally. In Dec/Jan it seemed likely that the conservatives would have a very strong majority, now anti-US sentiment has swung it the other way and the Liberals (under new leadership with Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England) look set to stay in power.

I'm not surprised that Maine is seeing a lot of it. There's an opera house and library in Vermont that intentionally straddles the border and had a special arrangement to allow people on either side to use it without formally passing through border controls. The pettiness on the US's side is such that this is now largely closed to Canadians. Trump's top border official visited it recently: https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...anada-as-51st-state-at-quebec-vermont-border/

According to Deborah Bishop, the library’s executive director, Noem stood on the American side and said “U.S.A. no. 1″ during the tour of the building.

“And then [she] crossed the line and said, ‘The 51st state.’ She did this on three occasions. There was no mention of Canada, just ‘The 51st state,’” she told CTV News, adding that the comments took everyone by surprise.

“I couldn’t believe she said it,” Bishop said. “We welcomed her with courtesy and respect, and I think she should have reacted in the same way. She was in Canada. I mean, when you step over that line, you are technically in Canada. So maybe be respectful towards the people in the room who are Canadian.”

 

[Lloyds siding]

although not for this thread per se, it seems to have percolated into Canadian politics where an election is to be held in April. The Canadian Tories, at least at the federal level, are fairly pro-Trump and pro-US and that has backfired totally. In Dec/Jan it seemed likely that the conservatives would have a very strong majority, now anti-US sentiment has swung it the other way and the Liberals (under new leadership with Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England) look set to stay in power.

I'm not surprised that Maine is seeing a lot of it. There's an opera house and library in Vermont that intentionally straddles the border and had a special arrangement to allow people on either side to use it without formally passing through border controls. The pettiness on the US's side is such that this is now largely closed to Canadians. Trump's top border official visited it recently: https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...anada-as-51st-state-at-quebec-vermont-border/

She's been on a training course at the Donald Trump School of Arbitration and Diplomacy.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I see Trump is now claiming in a CNN interview there is a method that would allow him a third term, and that he isn't joking.
When asked if he meant running as vice president and the elected president standing down, in effect finding a way round the 12th amendment, he said there was that but other ways as well, without specifying what they were.

I wonder if one idea would be for him to stand for election to the house of representatives and assuming the republicans controlled the house get himself elected as speaker, then both the president and vice president stand down leaving him to assume the presidency. This does however have a lot of ifs in it, so no guarantee this plan would succeed.
Another idea is to circumvent the 12th amendment rules on standing for election as vice president by having the elected president stand down then on assuming the presidency the former vice president selects Trump as his VP and then stands down.

I saw this on The Guardian site. I am trying to comply with Forum rules by inserting a quote, due to my incompetence in such matters it may take time and a few attempts!

Contempt as Trump claims he can run for third term: ‘This is what dictators do’

US president receives bipartisan criticism after saying there are ‘methods’ he could defy constitution to seek third term

www.theguardian.com

 

[DarloRich]

I see Trump is now claiming in a CNN interview there is a method that would allow him a third term, and that he isn't joking.

There is no need for him to do anything so creative. He will just stand if he wants. That or simply declare himself dictator for life. The ground work has been done with the courts and separation of powers etc.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Of course making people think he could serve a third term is a way of maintaining power even if he has no intention of doing so. Second term presidents lose a certain amount of influence as legislators don't have to concern themselves with worrying what the president might do revenge wise in the next term.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'm not surprised that Maine is seeing a lot of it. There's an opera house and library in Vermont that intentionally straddles the border and had a special arrangement to allow people on either side to use it without formally passing through border controls. The pettiness on the US's side is such that this is now largely closed to Canadians. Trump's top border official visited it recently: https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...anada-as-51st-state-at-quebec-vermont-border/

I can explain a bit more about this from a technical point of view.

The library was built by the local community to straddle the border on purpose, as the idea was that it would be for both Stansted and Derby Line communities. For many years (up until 9/11), Canadians had free access to it, and the road outside wasn't even barriered. After 9/11, the road was closed off with flowerpots, but an 'unofficial official' rule was that Canadians could walk to the front door of the library without bothering to go through the nearby border crossing. To the best of my knowledge, it was never formally codified, but the library cooperated with both sets of border police to prevent certain situations. For instance, when the library started to become heavily used by families of non-Americans/Canadians who couldn't officially meet due to restrictions on them crossing the border, the library agreed to ban such meetings. The library could still be used by locals to meet for clubs and so on, but family meetings are now officially banned there.

Canadians visiting the library also had to leave and go back directly to Canada. While the crossing isn't monitored 24/7, by all accounts, the local border police there have a cheerful relationship with Canadians and that many of the library visitors are known by sight to the American border patrol. In turn, the locals also help out both the American and Canadian border police by reporting suspicious goings on, and the entire system has worked well for everyone.

What has changed is that in a remarkable bout of bad will, the Trump administration has now changed the rules so that until October, Canadians will only be able to visit the library by carrying their library card and ID, and then after October, they will have to go through the nearby border crossing. The library has rather quickly raised the money to build a new entrance on the Canadian side, but the local inhabitants on both sides are absolutely furious at the situation. The two communities are quite tightly integrated, and both French and English are spoken on both sides of the border by locals.

The location is here.
There is absolutely no reason to do this other than straight out spite towards the community there.

I see Trump is now claiming in a CNN interview there is a method that would allow him a third term, and that he isn't joking.

It is theoretically possible, but I suspect politically impossible, especially if the Republicans lose in the midterms. The only way for him to realistically do it would be to have 60 seats in the Senate as well as control of the House, and that's not going to happen.

 

[sannox]

This, exactly. OAG may well be looking at bookings for summer vacations, etc.

We also see Canadian airlines reallocating resources for the summer season at this stage.

 

[najaB]

We also see Canadian airlines reallocating resources for the summer season at this stage.

As an example, a quick look shows more flights from Toronto to Barbados this summer as compared to last. Is this entirely due to aircraft being redeployed from flights to the USA? Can't say for sure, but it's likely.