Thoughts on the Trump presidency

[SHD]

I see Trump is now claiming in a CNN interview there is a method that would allow him a third term, and that he isn't joking.
When asked if he meant running as vice president and the elected president standing down, in effect finding a way round the 12th amendment, he said there was that but other ways as well, without specifying what they were.

I wonder if one idea would be for him to stand for election to the house of representatives and assuming the republicans controlled the house get himself elected as speaker, then both the president and vice president stand down leaving him to assume the presidency. This does however have a lot of ifs in it, so no guarantee this plan would succeed.
Another idea is to circumvent the 12th amendment rules on standing for election as vice president by having the elected president stand down then on assuming the presidency the former vice president selects Trump as his VP and then stands down.

Let's not dismiss too quickly the scenario whereby Trump stands for the Housing and Urban development secretary position in Vance's future administration and discreetly asked Putin to fire a TOPOL-M at Congress during the first State of the Union

 

[Giugiaro]

Is it just me, or are American brands now advertising more than usual?

Even Oreo is offering two-seat trips to... the USA!

 

[nlogax]

It is theoretically possible, but I suspect politically impossible, especially if the Republicans lose in the midterms. The only way for him to realistically do it would be to have 60 seats in the Senate as well as control of the House, and that's not going to happen.

It would also introduce the possibility for, say, a very popular Democrat ex-president to run against him. As ever Trump doesn't understand the ramifications of what he wants.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The only way for him to realistically do it would be to have 60 seats in the Senate as well as control of the House, and that's not going to happen.

Or he just doesn't leave.
There is no need for convoluted scenarios when he has already proven he is willing to break the law and has stacked every pillar of government with yes men cronies who will do his bidding.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

It is theoretically possible, but I suspect politically impossible, especially if the Republicans lose in the midterms. The only way for him to realistically do it would be to have 60 seats in the Senate as well as control of the House, and that's not going to happen.

Let us suppose for a moment that you wanted to rig the senate. You start by setting up a stop thecsteal movement making wild accusations about voting processes. Then mive to doing a vote challenge in those states that have had the temerity to elect Democrats, not accepting any court or other decisions that go against you, ramp up the stop the steal movement.
Ýou manage to disrupt the normal process, in effect stopping the winning candidates from being declared, in extreme cases, particularly if there is a trifecta republican state that elected a Democrat you could overturn the result.
Now, it would still be virtually impossible to get 60 republican senators, but what if you, whilst the 'disputed' positions are not filled had a senate vote on amending the 22nd amendment in some way, would you still need 60 votes or could they try to make it 60% of those currently members of the senate?

Yes, it all sounds paranoid, but with this administration it is starting to look like you can't be too paranoid.

 

[DarloRich]

Or he just doesn't leave.
There is no need for convoluted scenarios when he has already proven he is willing to break the law and has stacked every pillar of government with yes men cronies who will do his bidding.

exactly - people overthink this. Lets not forget he tried to organise an executive putsch when he lost in 2021! He wont allow it to fail next time. We are in very dangerous times.

Yes, it all sounds paranoid, but with this administration it is starting to look like you can't be too paranoid.

Dont over think - go for the simple option. He just wont leave or give anyone a vote......................

It would also introduce the possibility for, say, a very popular Democrat ex-president to run against him. As ever Trump doesn't understand the ramifications of what he wants.

you make a large assumption that there will be a "run"! Trump has a range of options that he can choose from, most of which have been used by his authoritarian/strongmen idols.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Yes, it all sounds paranoid, but with this administration it is starting to look like you can't be too paranoid.

The thing is, in this situation, you almost certainly have the powerful Western Democratic trifecta states immediately declare some kind of martial law, likely followed up by NY/NJ and New England. With them, as well as Illinois, you have a very powerful block that can cripple the Red states almost overnight by simply declaring that the IRS has no jurisdiction in those states. The National Guard in each state is also theoretically under dual control, but in practice, the state governor appoints the commander in that specific state.

I think the more likely scenario right now is that Trump simply refuses to go regardless of who wins in 2029. But at this moment, I'll be very surprised if he has any political left by then, especially once American businesses start feeling the effects.

 

[AlterEgo]

Or he just doesn't leave.
There is no need for convoluted scenarios when he has already proven he is willing to break the law and has stacked every pillar of government with yes men cronies who will do his bidding.

If he doesn't leave he will probably be shot by someone, and this time they might not make a hash of it.

 

[Annetts key]

Can I just point out that the employees of the United States Secret Service swear an oath to “Support and Defend the Constitution”. The question is, would these agents, that normally protect the President and Vice President arrest them if they disregarded and disrespected the Constitution?

 

[Gloster]

Can I just point out that the employees of the United States Secret Service swear an oath to “Support and Defend the Constitution”. The question is, would these agents, that normally protect the President and Vice President arrest them if they disregarded and disrespected the Constitution?

But who selects them: if it is one of Trump’s henchmen, all the agents could be ones chosen to be loyal to Trump above all. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? (Who guards the guards?)

I think that Trump, if he hasn’t completely lost his marbles, will just do what he usually does: use every legal means to get what he wants and when that doesn’t work challenge, deny and lie. Then he will revert to just doing what he wants irrespective.

 

[brad465]

The thing is, in this situation, you almost certainly have the powerful Western Democratic trifecta states immediately declare some kind of martial law, likely followed up by NY/NJ and New England. With them, as well as Illinois, you have a very powerful block that can cripple the Red states almost overnight by simply declaring that the IRS has no jurisdiction in those states. The National Guard in each state is also theoretically under dual control, but in practice, the state governor appoints the commander in that specific state.

I think the more likely scenario right now is that Trump simply refuses to go regardless of who wins in 2029. But at this moment, I'll be very surprised if he has any political left by then, especially once American businesses start feeling the effects.

Did you mean "political support" or something similar here?

I'd be very surprised if Trump is a physically functioning human by this point (even more so than now). At the current rate of visible cognitive decline, he could easily be at the level of needing to be in a care home by 2028, if he hasn't already died from some old age-related disease by this point.

 

[najaB]

I'd be very surprised if Trump is a physically functioning human by this point (even more so than now). At the current rate of visible cognitive decline, he could easily be at the level of needing to be in a care home by 2028, if he hasn't already died from some old age-related disease by this point.

This, exactly. He's already clearly very unwell (both physically and mentally). It might be wishful thinking, but I can't see him being strong enough to command much respect or support three and a half years from now.

 

[nlogax]

you make a large assumption that there will be a "run"! Trump has a range of options that he can choose from, most of which have been used by his authoritarian/strongmen idols.

Assuming he manages to successfully blitz the 22nd Amendment he'll still need to retain the presidency via an election in order to be not seen as a dictator. The robustness of a pro-Trump result in that scenario would of course merit endless scrutiny.

All that said I'm still not concerned by this third term talk. Him even making it to the end of the second term is unlikely.

 

[jon0844]

Assuming he manages to successfully blitz the 22nd Amendment he'll still need to retain the presidency via an election in order to be not seen as a dictator. The robustness of a pro-Trump result in that scenario would of course merit endless scrutiny.

All that said I'm still not concerned by this third term talk. Him even making it to the end of the second term is unlikely.

Does he really need to win another election? His base would be fine as long as they're seeing videos of ICE acting like the secret police in rounding up undesirables, the legal system decimated and all forms of protest made illegal or acts of terrorism.

Now I do hope someone would push back if these things happened, and am reminded of all the guns people keep precisely to defend against tyranny - but it doesn't look like anyone cares at the moment enough to do anything.

The Democrats seem to be happy to bide their time (that they don't have) and Republicans are too terrified to say a word. The media will soon be Fox, OAN, Newsmax and Elon simps only.

Trump is effectively being controlled by Elon and the Heritage Foundation and is being allowed to feather his nest through grifts, and even if Trump died they have the perfect successor lined up in the form of the VP who wrote the foreward to Project 2025.

 

[Gloster]

Is it just me, or are American brands now advertising more than usual?

Even Oreo is offering two-seat trips to... the USA!

I have also seen a reappearance in my newsfeed in the last few days of the ‘Check if you are eligible to apply for US citizenship’ ads. As my feed also seems to go to the USA (I hope they enjoy reports of missing dogs in Wroxall), are they trying to piggyback on people’s fear of being deported and their attempts to secure their situation before they are flown to a cell in Louisiana?

 

[AlterEgo]

I have also seen a reappearance in my newsfeed in the last few days of the ‘Check if you are eligible to apply for US citizenship’ ads. As my feed also seems to go to the USA (I hope they enjoy reports of missing dogs in Wroxall), are they trying to piggyback on people’s fear of being deported and their attempts to secure their situation before they are flown to a cell in Louisiana?

Those ads, if they’re not from the US government, will be some sort of scam.

 

[najaB]

Those ads, if they’re not from the US government, will be some sort of scam.

Not necessarily. There are numerous legitimate firms that provide assistance with completing the documentation for visa/citizenship applications in return for a fee.

 

[jon0844]

I have also seen a reappearance in my newsfeed in the last few days of the ‘Check if you are eligible to apply for US citizenship’ ads.

Of course you are.

Go to the site and it will ask you if you're white, and if you confirm then you'll be taken to the credit card payment page to buy a 'Gold Card+' for £5m.

Otherwise, the answer is no!

 

[DarloRich]

Assuming he manages to successfully blitz the 22nd Amendment he'll still need to retain the presidency via an election in order to be not seen as a dictator

You assume he cares. He certainly doesn't care what sensible, reasonable people like you or I may think. His red neck SS will be right behind his plans and that is all that matters.

All that said I'm still not concerned by this third term talk. Him even making it to the end of the second term is unlikely.

I agree. He will be brown bread by then

 

[Giugiaro]

I agree. He will be brown bread by then

Brown is, after all, a different shade of orange

 

[nlogax]

You assume he cares. He certainly doesn't care what sensible, reasonable people like you or I may think. His red neck SS will be right behind his plans and that is all that matters.

I don't think it's a matter of not caring; he'd have no choice. Without at least the illusion of democratic process, sliding into literal authoritarianism and maintaining double or triple digit tariffs would tank the US economy in a way not seen since the turn of the 1930s. That's the sort of situation that these days leads to violent uprisings.

Not convinced that's even likely though. The more real worry is where will JD Vance take things once Trump's gone. Vance is out and out dangerous.

 

[BingMan]

I see Trump is now claiming in a CNN interview there is a method that would allow him a third term, and that he isn't joking.

Another idea is to circumvent the 12th amendment rules on standing for election as vice president by having the elected president stand down then on assuming the presidency the former vice president selects Trump as his VP and then stands down.

That scenario requires two people in the position of President relinquishing the office. Such is the headiness of power that I find it hard to believe that one President would stand down let alone two.

 

[Giugiaro]

Without at least the illusion of democratic process, sliding into literal authoritarianism and maintaining double or triple digit tariffs would tank the US economy in a way not seen since the turn of the 1930s. That's the sort of situation that these days leads to violent uprisings.

1. Blame it on external actors.
2. Launch a war against said actors.
3. Claim victory and party.
4. Find someone else to blame.
5. Rinse and repeat.

 

[The Ham]

1. Blame it on external actors.
2. Launch a war against said actors.
3. Claim victory and party.
4. Find someone else to blame.
5. Rinse and repeat.

Alternatively declare marshall law (or similar) so elections can't be held.

Of course the hypocrisy in that being the case when there's been complaints about others doing it whilst at war would be lost on the republicans.

 

[DerekC]

I can’t see Vance standing down in favour of Trump. If Vance wins the presidency, Trump is history. And if Trump wanted a third term he would just take it. He wouldn’t trust Vance enough to endorse him.

 

[dangie]

…. He wouldn’t trust Vance enough to endorse him.

’Keep friends close, enemies closer…’

 

[Lloyds siding]

Alternatively declare marshall law (or similar) so elections can't be held.

Of course the hypocrisy in that being the case when there's been complaints about others doing it whilst at war would be lost on the republicans.

I like the idea of marshall law...where the sheriff rides into town...

 

[brad465]

One upside of Trump's tariffs seems to be that, for now, the Dollar has been devalued, so we have a stronger pound:

GBP/USD Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest Pound sterling to United States Dollar (GBP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

www.google.com

(Image of the pound to dollar exchange rate for the last 5 days, with value just under 1.32)

 

[DarloRich]

I don't get the goal/aim/target/end state of the tariff regime annouced by the Trump team.

Is there capacity within the American industrial landscape to pick up the slack? Do they have access to the resources, skills tools and techniques needed to replicate international supply chains and manufacturing? Do they have the time to do that?

 

[jon0844]

I don't get the goal/aim/target/end state of the tariff regime annouced by the Trump team.

Is there capacity within the American industrial landscape to pick up the slack? Do they have access to the resources, skills tools and techniques needed to replicate international supply chains and manufacturing? Do they have the time to do that?

Aren't the tariffs kicking in at midnight tonight? I am surprised (read; not surprised) that Trump is saying there will be some (!) pain before the gain, to allow for companies to relocate their manufacturing in the USA etc.

What I don't get is that surely you'd see first if that was even possible/feasible, and if so you'd set a deadline to give businesses time to prepare. The idea that they can start punishing straight away, which will harm a lot of businesses and its customers, and the firms will all announce multi-billion investments in factories in the USA is pie-in-the-sky thinking.

Worse still, Trump thought he could bully companies by telling them not to pass on the costs or he'd impose higher tariffs, which goes to show he knows it will be devastating but thought his threats would hide the real impact by not impacting prices. What planet is he on?