Yes I agree. I just wondered if in his stupid and vain way he might be thinking that he was playing 4D chess.
-
Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Thoughts on the Trump presidency
- Thread starter Gloster
- Start date
Yes I agree. I just wondered if in his stupid and vain way he might be thinking that he was playing 4D chess.
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
He thinks he's playing 4D chess but he's actually playing Ludo. Badly.Yes I agree. I just wondered if in his stupid and vain way he might be thinking that he was playing 4D chess.
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
PIMCO will know where the skeletons are but suspect as I said above long dated treasuries are an easy way to raise collateral being very liquid as traders had to cover off margin calls.
Only the Chinese could really challenge the dollar hegemony but that country is a lot more a risky bet for most of the world than even Trumps US. Guess you could also see the rise of crypto currencies as another alternative but there many versions of that so i believe the dollar will maintain its status in the long run.
The US dollar status is already diminished from what it was a few weeks ago. In recent days the safe havens have been the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen.
Crypto currencies are already the choice for international crime, which is a possible leading indicator.
I think it is a mistake to assume that the status of the US dollar is assured, even if there is no obvious replacement yet. There could be a long and messy period where no currency has reserve currency hegemony.
Last edited:
Annetts key
Established Member
Two questions remain...
What will China do next? I don't see them backing down, but will they escalate again?
And what happens in 90 days time? Trump is unlikely to do a deal with every country...
This clown show isn't over yet, not by a long way...
What will China do next? I don't see them backing down, but will they escalate again?
And what happens in 90 days time? Trump is unlikely to do a deal with every country...
This clown show isn't over yet, not by a long way...
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
No they wont escalate any further they've too much to lose now but they need to recognise the level of imbalance is simply unsustainable and make a few gestures and Trump will at least revert back to the original figure.
All countries need to show willing to address their mismatched with US and their suspensions will roll forward to allow progress in negotiations
Maybe but Trump just lounges around on the golf course and does state visits you'll know hes not that interested anymore.
Agreed. And it's 10% of the factory gate price, not the retail price. So the price of fancy trainers is up about $2....
1 million million million percent tariffs on China by the end of the week in full Dr Evil style!
China doesn't have a lot to lose.
Goods exports to the US are about 2% of GDP for China, a similar percentage to the UK. Lower exports to the US just means that China GDP grows a bit more slowly.
The US tariffs on imports of goods from China are paid by US consumers and businesses, not China.
China also has about $750bn of US dollar bonds that it can sell, that's a big pile of chips.
How? If there's a trade imbalance it's almost certainly because the USA is buying more from them than they need/want from the USA.
The only way to address the imbalance would be to sell less to the USA.
Annetts key
Established Member
Trying to address a trade imbalance by any significant amount is exceptionally hard for small countries or countries with small populations (compared to the U.S.A.). Or for countries that have a relatively poor population.
There is likely simply not a large enough market for more American goods to be bought. And no country is going to want to limit their exports.
Now paused reciprocal tariffs (everything above 10%) for 90 days, but jacked up the Chinese rate to 125%:
Trump tariffs updates: Higher rates paused for most but China tariffs now 125%
Trump says countries who were facing higher tariffs will now fall to the "baseline" tariff of 10% for at least 90 days.www.bbc.co.uk
Markets have rallied in response. At this point, even if only a by-product, we must be looking at the most naked example of market manipulation in the history of stock markets.
One should be investigating any suspicious investments made just before Trump announced the pause. At least one person, the infamous Marjorie Taylor Greene has been accused of using inside knowledge to sell - although I must stress in the USA it isn't illegal for politicians to buy and sell shares despite the obvious conflict of interest. I bet a LOT of politicians have made a lot of money as Trump plays his dumb game - but has almost certainly given some of them the heads-up first.
brad465
Established Member
There's a large catalogue of problems with the US political system which Trump is doing a great job of exposing. Ironically he's probably more likely than anyone to lead to the solutions, as at this rate he'll trash the US and its political system so hard that it will have to be rebuilt from scratch.
I've never seen anyone attempt a 'switch it off and turn it back on' reset being done on a country, but that seems to be what's happening in the USA.
brad465
Established Member
I can think of multiple examples of where it's happened as a result of war, chiefly Germany and Japan at the end of WW2. However this was largely achieved by outside forces, whereas yes Trump seems to be doing it in a self-inflicting manner.
As others have pointed out there are other currencies which investors could switch to, the one not mentioned so far is the Euro.
Of course you could see a few take the lead, which could give investors the option of switching to the one which is most stable at that time.
The fact that one has dominated in the past didn't mean that is necessarily the best option.
The whole reason they had high tariffs was that they didn't buy a lot from the US so that's not going to impact them.
Likewise, if they can't sell so much to the US, I'm sure they'll be able to pivot to other markets. However, as others have joked, the cost of manufacturing in China is quite a lot lower, to the extent that for a lot of things the tariffs won't increase the value of the goods by all that much.
If prices were even close then transport costs would be a significant factor, they are not.
The reality is, that whilst a consumer maybe paying $100 for something there's likely to be some ability for companies to manipulate their costs so that even 200% tariffs might only make that go to (say) $160.
For example, I sell a product from a distribution centre in the US, I make a $15 in taxes, it's taken $6 to ship it, $2 in marketing, $15 in development costs, $22 in other company costs (wages, rent, profit, etc.) and $10 postage to the end user, the base cost to me is $30. That's a cost to the consumer of $100.
Now it's I've got to pay 200% tariff that's an extra $60 to the sale price, so the cost totals $160.
I might look to see if I can get it manufactured elsewhere to reduce my costs from $90, but even switching to (say) Vietnam with a tariff of (say) 50% would mean the total cost would be $115.
Obviously to make that work, I may look at shifting some assembly to the US, however that's going to be take preassembled items and put them into a box, so the tariff only applies to the value of (say) some bits of wood and not to the value of a flat pack wardrobe, or a few sheets of coloured card and some plastic items and not the value of a boardgame.
However I may also look to move my distribution out of the US so my Canadian, Mexican and other customers within the Americas aren't being hit by the tariff (the US is 51.9% of the North American population and 31.9% of the Americas) and if the US market is looking like it's going to be shrinking I might accept a smaller US market in exchange for keeping more of my other customers.
I'm still not going to move a lot to the US, as chances are the increase in wages would push the price up by more than $15, not least as even the raw materials are going to be hit by a tariff.
Of course if the US citizens are going to be hit by increased costs then they're going to be buying less anyway, so there's going to be some pain even if the tariffs all get reset to 10%.
Going back to my $100 product, you know what, actually I'll be looking to see if I can make efficiencies in my company, so I'll look at reducing headcount. Guess what, you don't need many companies doing that (or even just not increasing headcount) for that to impact the jobs market.
In normal times that would result in a higher unemployment rate, however currently it's likely to only mean even less money going around within the US (beating in mind the kicking out of people from the US, including recently 300 students having their visas revoked for things like having a speeding ticket) which will mean that the USA would become less attractive to do business and the country becomes poorer.
Many have joked that the US is a third world country with first world prices (due to the poor level of healthcare, government safety net, too much money in politics and poor protections). There's a chance that joke may not be true anymore, it may just be that the US is no better than any of the other countries in the Americas and may not be paying first world prices anymore.
The reason they are miss matched is because the US needs their goods, arguably many have been undercutting themselves to keep access to the US market as it's so large.
However if the only way to keep access to the US is to cut their prices further, they may think, I can make about the same by selling to others, so why bother chasing after the US market so hard?
They may go on to think, yes the US is 320 million people, and that's only 4% of the world's population, rather than making 10¢ (and likely falling) by selling to them I can make 8¢ by selling to a much larger market and so actually have a larger income. Yes it'll be harder work, but I'll be less exposed to one country having financial issues, so over the medium term it may not be much difference.
Whilst he did that last time, a lot of that was because he was held in check by those around him, so he couldn't do as much as he wanted (COVID also helped in that regard in that he had to be seen to be doing something about that and that was the "monster" they had to fear), however those limiting forces aren't in play this time around.
nlogax
Established Member
Isn't that what presidential elections and term limits are for? This feels more like he's dunking the entire thing into a vat of bleach and expecting it to work better than it did before.
There’s no 4D chess game going on here, he is very obviously manipulating the market for the benefit of himself and his fellow elites. Doesn’t even need to be discreet about it he can get away with whatever he wants now.
Makes the candidates on the Apprentice look like a bunch of geniuses
YorkshireBear
Established Member
- Joined
- 23 Jul 2010
- Messages
- 9,072
Don't even think it's subtle. I am waiting for mainstream media to pick up on how many of his mates have made billions.
He was boasting in the Whitehouse about how much money his friends made.
Gloster
Established Member
Are we seeing the birth of a new form of government: trumpocracy, a mixture of kakistocracy (government by the worst, least unqualified or most unscrupulous), kleptocracy (government by those who use their power to steal) and plutocracy (government by a cartoon dog…sorry, government by the enormously rich). There may also prove to an element of oligarchical authoritanarianism.
Presumably in an attempt to distract from the tariffs and allegations of insider trading, the Dear Leader is moving forward on tackling the *real* issues facing the US
Wasn't there an episode of Seinfeld where this was a sub plot?
Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose.
www.whitehouse.gov
Wasn't there an episode of Seinfeld where this was a sub plot?
Ah yes. Trump said that under the current rules it takes “15 minutes” to get his “beautiful” hair wet when he has a shower
And of course not one single journalist even laughed at this nonsense, let alone challenged him on it or called him a liar
And of course not one single journalist even laughed at this nonsense, let alone challenged him on it or called him a liar
edwin_m
Veteran Member
What an absolute douche.
trainswitheddy
Member
Would that not be from all the product he uses?
More seriously, how hard is it to get your water wet? I wouldn't exactly call rain high pressure but a minute or so in it and I'm drenched
brad465
Established Member
One thing Trump is doing a great job of doing is slowing down time. We haven't even completed the first 100 days of his 2nd term yet, but it's had all the drama of a full 4 years and more.
Annetts key
Established Member
Maybe he should take his toupee off first