UK General Election 2024

[52290]

Yeah, it was more facetious really. I just find the whole thing deeply weird. If the only reason you're providing for people to vote for you is that you're local and not a career politician, then really you need to both be local, and be standing against a career politician.

Perhaps he should stand in the Royston Vazey constituency.

 

[jfollows]

Indeed, I think "the shires" is where they will cling on, with huge majorities still. No chance of Truss going, for example, sadly. And Hancock's old seat will surely remain true blue, even if he himself has gone.

I haven't spent a lot of time/effort on it, but I got the impression that Liz Truss might lose her seat.

There appears to be a three-way split of the Conservative vote there - to Reform, of course, but also to an independent Conservative backed by Rory Stewart.

There appears to be a feeling that Liz Truss is not a very good MP, that she took her constituency for granted, that she can't be very bothered with the mechanics of hustings and interacting with common people, and her excessive security as an ex-PM hasn't helped with this.

How real the threat to her is I don't have a feeling for, other than that her keeping her seat doesn't appear to be a done deal.

 

[SteveM70]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Truss would actually quite like to lose her seat, not that she'd ever admit it of course

But if she did, she could flounce off to America and earn money giving vacuous speeches to the alt-right, continue to claim she was right all along and that really she's the victim in it all, and not have to lower herself to getting involved with the proletariat

 

[gg1]

I haven't spent a lot of time/effort on it, but I got the impression that Liz Truss might lose her seat.

There appears to be a three-way split of the Conservative vote there - to Reform, of course, but also to an independent Conservative backed by Rory Stewart.

It's actually a 4 way split, there's a Heritage Party candidate too. I doubt they'll get more that a few hundred votes but if she does lose the the seat it will likely be by that sort of margin.

There appears to be a feeling that Liz Truss is not a very good MP, that she took her constituency for granted, that she can't be very bothered with the mechanics of hustings and interacting with common people, and her excessive security as an ex-PM hasn't helped with this.

I'm not remotely surprised, that's exactly the sort of constituency MP I imagined her to be.

 

[DunsBus]

You could have put in the recycling!

I did, once I'd ripped it up!

Because of the damage the Scottish Greens have done to Scotland through their short-lived time in government at Holyrood there was no way that their flyer was going in the recycling in one piece - so I tore it up first.

I got great satisfaction in doing so, too.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I did, once I'd ripped it up!

Because of the damage the Scottish Greens have done to Scotland through their short-lived time in government at Holyrood there was no way that their flyer was going in the recycling in one piece - so I tore it up first.

I got great satisfaction in doing so, too.

You are a better man than me. I would have rebelliously put it in the landfill bin and enjoy doing so. And would have been tempted to use the SNP one for toilet paper. Had I not feared for the impact on my drainage and my own posterior by doing so?

 

[nw1]

I haven't spent a lot of time/effort on it, but I got the impression that Liz Truss might lose her seat.

There appears to be a three-way split of the Conservative vote there - to Reform, of course, but also to an independent Conservative backed by Rory Stewart.

There appears to be a feeling that Liz Truss is not a very good MP, that she took her constituency for granted, that she can't be very bothered with the mechanics of hustings and interacting with common people, and her excessive security as an ex-PM hasn't helped with this.

How real the threat to her is I don't have a feeling for, other than that her keeping her seat doesn't appear to be a done deal.

Interesting, I have to admit I wasn't aware of the Independent Conservative.

My comments were solely based on her seat being the kind of deeply rural seat that would (presumably) never vote anything other than Conservative.

 

[birchesgreen]

The latest Tory attack line on Starmer seems to be he has said he is going to clock off at 6pm on a Friday so he can have dinner with his wife and family.

I guess they can't understand him not having dinner with someone else's wife?

 

[takno]

Interesting, I have to admit I wasn't aware of the Independent Conservative.

My comments were solely based on her seat being the kind of deeply rural seat that would (presumably) never vote anything other than Conservative.

I think you're clinging onto this notion if the countryside as a deeply conservative place where nothing can ever change a bit too hard. They have the internet like everyone else - they aren't getting all their information from the Telegraph and coffee mornings at the town hall.

More practically, Brexit has been a catastrophe for large chunks of the rural community, from removal of regional funds, to the hopeless replacements for agricultural subsidies.

 

[AlterEgo]

This forum always trends strongly towards Liberal Democrat compared to the national average, which I have often found surprising.

 

[nlogax]

Always entertaining to see Reform candidates figure out that they're on a losing ticket amongst a bunch of absolute lowlifes and nutters. Another one standing down this morning after having seen the light. I've never witnessed quite this many 'leopards ate my face' moments in an election run-up. If nothing else it's been hugely entertaining.

The Scottish Family Party leaflet demonstrated them to be even more disgusting than I thought - I'm frankly slightly uncomfortable knowing there's somebody as nasty as that proudly and openly living in my local community.

I got one of those leaflets too here in East Ren. Grubby, unpleasant stuff. Not expecting our local candidate or their wider bunch to make much impact, fingers crossed.

 

[jfollows]

The latest Tory attack line on Starmer seems to be he has said he is going to clock off at 6pm on a Friday so he can have dinner with his wife and family.

I guess they can't understand him not having dinner with someone else's wife?

It also reinforces the managerial incompetence in which people in charge think the number of hours worked is more important than the quality of the work performed.

 

[DarloRich]

The latest Tory attack line on Starmer seems to be he has said he is going to clock off at 6pm on a Friday so he can have dinner with his wife and family.

I guess they can't understand him not having dinner with someone else's wife?

She is also Jewish. I think Jews do something on a Friday night...........................................

Regardless Starmer is right to try and protect some time with his family. As a leader you are no good to anyone if you go pop and as a father you are no good to anyone if you go pop!

He is hardly saying that if the Russians fire the missiles at 1807 on a Friday he won't respond!

 

[takno]

The latest Tory attack line on Starmer seems to be he has said he is going to clock off at 6pm on a Friday so he can have dinner with his wife and family.

I guess they can't understand him not having dinner with someone else's wife?

It seemed a stretch to me. It's like they're trying to be the kind of boss that says "well I worked until midnight, so I was disappointed to see empty desks at 7". Nobody likes them, and nobody finds them inspirational, but they persist in killing morale by clock watching instead of communicating with their employees.

 

[Mag_seven]

So we have the obscene sight of antisemitic remarks from the right wing who themselves cry "antisemitism" every time someone dares to protest against the Gaza situation. Oh the irony.

 

[43096]

The latest Tory attack line on Starmer seems to be he has said he is going to clock off at 6pm on a Friday so he can have dinner with his wife and family.

I don’t want a PM who is working excessive hours. It means they don’t trust their team to run their departments and never switch off which leads to tiredness and bad decision making.

 

[SteveM70]

It also reinforces the managerial incompetence in which people in charge think the number of hours worked is more important than the quality of the work performed

Absolutely this

But yet again, its just bad politics

 

[nw1]

I think you're clinging onto this notion if the countryside as a deeply conservative place where nothing can ever change a bit too hard. They have the internet like everyone else - they aren't getting all their information from the Telegraph and coffee mornings at the town hall.

More practically, Brexit has been a catastrophe for large chunks of the rural community, from removal of regional funds, to the hopeless replacements for agricultural subsidies.

Perhaps, but I'm also looking at the 1997 pattern whereby Blair (presumably the Labour candidate best placed in recent times to attract Tories) failed to gain seats of this sort, though he did manage to reduce the majority.

The kind of seats which Labour failed to take in 1997 but are in with a good chance this time seem to be mostly southern urban seats (Bournemouth, Worthing, etc; also an outside chance in Basingstoke, Aldershot, Aylesbury, etc).

I do see a swing to Labour and/or the Lib Dems in seats such as that of Truss, thought not enough for the Tories to lose them.

 

[Senex]

I don’t want a PM who is working excessive hours. It means they don’t trust their team to run their departments and never switch off which leads to tiredness and bad decision making.

Absolutely. The PM should be a good leader with a strong team whose members he trusts, not the one person who has to do everything and watch over every action his minions take.

 

[edwin_m]

Interesting, I have to admit I wasn't aware of the Independent Conservative.

Perhaps better known as the Turnip Taliban. Quote "turnips are longer lasting that lettuces".

Perhaps, but I'm also looking at the 1997 pattern whereby Blair (presumably the Labour candidate best placed in recent times to attract Tories) failed to gain seats of this sort, though he did manage to reduce the majority.

The kind of seats which Labour failed to take in 1997 but are in with a good chance this time seem to be mostly southern urban seats (Bournemouth, Worthing, etc; also an outside chance in Basingstoke, Aldershot, Aylesbury, etc).

I do see a swing to Labour and/or the Lib Dems in seats such as that of Truss, thought not enough for the Tories to lose them.

It could be beyond 1997, when for example the Tories were still polling ahead of Labour on the economy. Since the days of the aforementioned Truss, that is no longer the case.

 

[Gloster]

They are all looking nostalgically at Margaret Thatcher, who was a workaholic and got by on four hours sleep a night. If she could do all those wonderful things (their opinion, not mine) on so little sleep, then someone who does not overwork and gets a decent night’s sleep is going to do bad things, or at least that is their twisted logic. Don’t mention Johnson, who didn’t do much work and made a right mess of things, or Truss, who is reported to be a right workaholic and made a right mess of things. It really is just a desperate lashing out with any criticism that might influence somebody, somewhere: they are getting desperate.

 

[bspahh]

Perhaps better known as the Turnip Taliban. Quote "turnips are longer lasting that lettuces".

It could be beyond 1997, when for example the Tories were still polling ahead of Labour on the economy. Since the days of the aforementioned Truss, that is no longer the case.

A problem for Liz Truss is that Downham Market is becoming a Cambridge commuter town, for first time buyers who have been completely priced out of anywhere closer to Cambridge.

 

[jfollows]

There's also the mortgage factor in Truss's consituency; not surprisingly anyone whose mortgage has increased significantly will likely blame Truss personally for this and do their best to get back at her, and a "least worst" case might be to vote for the Turnip Taliban instead.

 

[Kaliwax]

Still had no response from the tory or reform candidate about the issues that face me, but that isn't a surprise is it, even though they claim to be for the people.

 

[WesternLancer]

Interestingly given leaflets received comments in this thread, I have just been given a load of leaflets by the party I am a member of to deliver ASAP - which of course means that

a) those homes have probably not had anything yet
b)there have not been resources (ie volunteers) to deliver them so far
and probably
c) other streets have been prioritised by the volunteers that have come forward earlier to deliver stuff - presumably based on the Agent's decision on priority areas to get stuff too.
d) maybe more money has come forward at late stage to print more material

So about 500 households are going to get a leaflet later today, who may not have had anything to date from this party at least.

The seat is not a swing one or a target seat I should add.

Of course any that are postal voters will have probably voted already, but I suspect that is a small percentage.

 

[SteveP29]

Before the dissolution Brock was Edinburgh North and Leith, Cherry Edinburgh Southwest.

There also wasn't an election 3 years ago, so I'd guess the poster moved.

Apologies I didn't make that clear.
Yes, we moved, from Gorgie to Granton Harbour.

 

[jfollows]

Of course any that are postal voters will have probably voted already, but I suspect that is a small percentage.

43% of votes in the recent Rochdale by-election were by post, although the figure was lower (on a higher base number of course) - 21% - for the 2019 general election. It will be interesting to see if that percentage has increased for this election. Some background research attached for interest.

I vote by post and - although we seem to have a reliable postal service here in Wilmslow still - I posted my vote as soon as I received my paperwork, a couple of weeks ago now.

 

[WesternLancer]

43% of votes in the recent Rochdale by-election were by post, although the figure was lower (on a higher base number of course) - 21% - for the 2019 general election. It will be interesting to see if that percentage has increased for this election. Some background research attached for interest.

I vote by past and - although we seem to have a reliable postal service here in Wilmslow still - I posted my vote as soon as I received my paperwork, a couple of weeks ago now.

Thanks - yes they always say 'people with postal votes are more likely to vote' - but to me this is 'stating the bleeding obvious' to use a phrase. After all you would not apply for a postal vote if you didn't have some likely intention to use it IMHO - I would suggest people who have postal votes but then don't vote could include

a) have them by mistake as ticked the wrong box on the electoral registration form, or
b) think they will be convenient but find the instructions on how to vote by post too complex when faced with the process (I have met voters who have complained about this)

So in a by election this would likely result in a higher proportion of the votes case being from PVs as the turnout overall is lower thus the people most motivated to vote (of which PVs are higher in my theory) will make up a greater share of votes cast than in a general election when turnout overall is usually higher than in a by election.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It has been suggested that they object to all the Poles, Estonians, Lithuanians, etc. ”Coming over here and taking our jobs…” in the various agricultural and food processing industries. These jobs are poorly paid and unpleasant casual work, but various East Europeans are prepared to work for peanuts, often in the hope of either saving a bit of money or moving on to better things. There was an article around a decade ago, which I read with interest as I used to know one of the employers quoted, that said that the East Europeans were preferred as they were a lot more reliable than the locals who had a casual attitude to the work. There have also been culture clashes and problems because after a few years you get less desirable chancers coming over to feed on their countrymen. But at the root it may be having a large and separate group of generally more successful foreigners in a rural area.

Yes, I understand that view from before Brexit, but all the "foreigners" will now have gone home or become UK residents under the Brexit legislation.
The seasonal agricultural labour scheme is quite an old one, not really part of the recent migrant surge.
The post-Brexit large influx of non-EU immigrants was, I thought, mainly in the NHS/care sector, where they have replaced EU migrants, and not particularly in eastern England.
That excludes immigrants under the special HK and UA schemes, again nothing directly to do with Lincolnshire.
The east Europeans were also generally white and Christian, not really the demographic that Reform object to.

 

[brad465]

This Twitter thread is a beauty, where someone has likened all the party leaders to train classes:

x.com

twitter.com

UK Party Leaders as trains:

Ed Davey - Class 73 - Popular in the South - Strong with people - Needs support on heavier topics

Sir Keir Starmer - Class 47 - Capable all-rounder - Better options elsewhere - Comes in many colours

Rishi Sunak - Class 153 - Unpopular - Represents decline - Limited ability

Nigel Farage - Class 31 - Noisy - Questionable performance - Represents the 1950s

Carla Denyer & Adrian Ramsey - Class 13 - Works in tandem - Too niche for the main line - Relegated to isolated locations

John Swinney - Class 67 - Too little too late for the environment - Can’t run at max speed on a full tank - What is the purpose?

Rhun ap Iowerth - Class 88 - Building on a niche market - Limited tractive effort on diesel - Needs more oomph

George Galloway - HS4000 - Sold to Russia

Alex Salmond - Class 76 - Evokes nostalgia of time gone by - Incompatible with current infrastructure - Found in a museum

Gavin Robinson - Fell Locomotive - It’s complicated.

Mary Lou McDonald - Eurotunnel Class 9 - Not on BR infrastructure. - Silent operator

Count Bin Face - Class 33 - Go anywhere, do anything - Reliable - Looks great in grey

There will be no Class 37 awarded as the honour belongs to Paddy Ashdown.

My favourite is Galloway's description, although Salmond and the Green co-leaders come close.