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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

DustyBin

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As does all the social media squealing as people who will have to wait a long time to be invited to get a vaccine because they are not in the most vulnerable groups find out they are not going to be at the front of the vaccine queue. (And yes, this has already started!)

Do you think it’s fear of the virus or fear of being subjected to individual restrictions? Although they’ve denied the latter will happen of course.

Personally I think this is great news as long as there is absolutely no compulsion/coercion to get it (I’m happy to wait).
 
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Bantamzen

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Do you think it’s fear of the virus or fear of being subjected to individual restrictions? Although they’ve denied the latter will happen of course.
A bit of both I think. Either way an awful lot of people seem to think that on release anyone can just rock up to their GP / hospital / testing centre and demand an instant vaccine. The government have a fair bit of work ahead managing expecations.

Personally I think this is great news as long as there is absolutely no compulsion/coercion to get it (I’m happy to wait).
As do I, with the added caveats that those that need the vaccine most (i.e. the elderly & those that care for them) remain firmly at the front of the queue, and that once they have restrictions are swiftly removed.
 

initiation

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I understand over 85s will be the first group of people to have it. Over the last few weeks, that age group has 'contributed' around 40% of "with covid" deaths.
We should very rapidly start to see a drop in these deaths if things do work out vaccine wise.

I really hope after January we will see a rapid de-escalation in restrictions (I would like even sooner). However I do fear there will be continued number watching and statements like, 'we just need to vaccinate everyone age 75 then freedom", then "those over age 65, just wait a bit longer", then "age 50, another month or two won't hurt".

I was very glad to see a rebuke of the covid passport idea although we all know the government's form on denying plans until a last minute u-turn.
 

adc82140

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This vaccine rollout will be to hospitals and big vaccination centres only, because of the - 80 storage thing. Not a big problem, but it means that people will have to travel. I guess for care homes it'll be a case of minibusing to and fro. Despite this however, the approval of this vaccine is excellent news.

The big one, which will probably be next week, is the approval of the Oxford vaccine. That will be able to be rolled out to GP surgeries, Town halls, wherever.
 

Bantamzen

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This vaccine rollout will be to hospitals and big vaccination centres only, because of the - 80 storage thing. Not a big problem, but it means that people will have to travel. I guess for care homes it'll be a case of minibusing to and fro. Despite this however, the approval of this vaccine is excellent news.

The big one, which will probably be next week, is the approval of the Oxford vaccine. That will be able to be rolled out to GP surgeries, Town halls, wherever.
Don't forget though that even with that vaccine approved, the priority list will remain. That is the most elderly, those in care & hospitals & those that care for them.
 

duncanp

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I wonder how long it will be before people start turning up at A&E, or at their GP surgery, and demanding a COVID-19 vaccine.

And as has been said earlier, cue the whining on social media, the newspapers and on TV about why they can't get a vaccine.

I think this gives the government an excuse to start relaxing the restrictions, and moving areas down the tiers, sooner rather than later.

A little publicised feature of the current regulations is that the secretary of state must review whether any of the restrictions for each tier are still appropriate every 28 days, starting on December 30th.

So it is possible that some of the restrictions on hospitality are loosened in January, by which time we would hope that the vaccination program is well under way.
 

Mag_seven

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Don't forget though that even with that vaccine approved, the priority list will remain. That is the most elderly, those in care & hospitals & those that care for them.

I wouldn't expect to see any general rollout of the vaccine occur until April 2021 at the earliest. The key for the next three months or so is as you have said is to get the most vulnerable vaccinated so we see the death and hospital admission numbers come down first.
 

nlogax

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As does all the social media squealing as people who will have to wait a long time to be invited to get a vaccine because they are not in the most vulnerable groups find out they are not going to be at the front of the vaccine queue. (And yes, this has already started!)

Really? I just see a lot of morons claiming that you don't need a vaccine for a hoax virus. Doesn't exactly restore my faith in social media.
 

duncanp

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One of the vaccine timetables I have seen is:-
  • Early December: Care home residents and staff, and health workers;
  • Mid December: Over-80s;
  • Late December: Over-70s;
  • Early January: Over-65s and high-risk younger adults, such as those with serious illnesses;
  • Mid January: Over-50s;
  • Late January: All adults over the age of 18. Most of this group will not actually get vaccinated until spring.
So it is quite possible that younger people (under the age of 50) will not be vaccinated until after Easter, unless perhaps they have an underlying medical condition.

However vaccination of the most vulnerable people will allow restrictions to be lifted progressively, as each stage of the program is completed. If younger people are vaccinated after Easter, it will enable mass participation events such as Glastonbury and all the summer festivals (eg Gay Pride) to take place.
 
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The U.K. at at the front on getting the vaccinations rolled out.....





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initiation

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A little publicised feature of the current regulations is that the secretary of state must review whether any of the restrictions for each tier are still appropriate every 28 days

Slightly off-topic for this thread, but a correction it is every 14 days. The first review is the 16th December, then the 30th etc...
 

Bantamzen

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I don't share social media circles. This was simply me plugging in 'vaccine' into Twitter search and scanning the UK-relevant results.
There are other platforms as I'm sure you are aware. The point is that one network or platform does not necessarily represent what another is saying.
 

nlogax

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There are other platforms as I'm sure you are aware. The point is that one network or platform does not necessarily represent what another is saying.

Admittedly I steer especially clear of Facebook for the wide base of nutters that hang out there. Is that where you're seeing these idiots?
 

Bantamzen

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Admittedly I steer especially clear of Facebook for the wide base of nutters that hang out there. Is that where you're seeing these idiots?
I am starting to see it on my FB network, but some are also appearing on local newspaper sites & even comments on BBC News articles.
 

SJN

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Funny you should say that I just walked past my doctors on the way to the sop and there are about 30 people outside. Never seen that many before all through this. I said to my neighbour perhaps they think they’re getting the vaccine lol.
 

Cheshire Scot

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One of the vaccine timetables I have seen is:-
  • Early December: Care home residents and staff, and health workers;
  • Mid December: Over-80s;
  • Late December: Over-70s;
  • Early January: Over-65s and high-risk younger adults, such as those with serious illnesses;
  • Mid January: Over-50s;
  • Late January: All adults over the age of 18. Most of this group will not actually get vaccinated until spring.
So it is quite possible that younger people (under the age of 50) will not be vaccinated until after Easter, unless perhaps they have an underlying medical condition.

However vaccination of the most vulnerable people will allow restrictions to be lifted progressively, as each stage of the program is completed. If younger people are vaccinated after Easter, it will enable mass participation events such as Glastonbury and all the summer festivals (eg Gay Pride) to take place.
These timescales look over optimistic to put it mildly.

Flu vaccines have been administered since September this year but aged 64 I have been given a mid-December date for mine and no doubt many will be later than this.

That is three months plus just to look after the over 50s!

Subject to supply and capacity to administer they might just about reach the over 70s by the end of January, and remember everyone needs two doses.
 

Mag_seven

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These timescales look over optimistic to put it mildly.

I agree they are very very challenging - as an ex project manager (not in health though), I think I would get laughed out of court if I presented such an unrealistic programme like that to my superiors.
 

YorkshireBear

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One of the vaccine timetables I have seen is:-
  • Early December: Care home residents and staff, and health workers;
  • Mid December: Over-80s;
  • Late December: Over-70s;
  • Early January: Over-65s and high-risk younger adults, such as those with serious illnesses;
  • Mid January: Over-50s;
  • Late January: All adults over the age of 18. Most of this group will not actually get vaccinated until spring.
So it is quite possible that younger people (under the age of 50) will not be vaccinated until after Easter, unless perhaps they have an underlying medical condition.

However vaccination of the most vulnerable people will allow restrictions to be lifted progressively, as each stage of the program is completed. If younger people are vaccinated after Easter, it will enable mass participation events such as Glastonbury and all the summer festivals (eg Gay Pride) to take place.

From what I've said they expect to get all who want it from vulnerable and over 60s done by Easter at which point the risk profile reduces significantly. Shortly after all over 50s at which point the prediction is most restrictions would be eased. With restrictions eased progressively until that point. Full vaccination likely to take all year. Remember we are at the moment limited by the supply not our ability to vaccinate as far as I am aware.
 

hwl

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One of the vaccine timetables I have seen is:-
  • Early December: Care home residents and staff, and health workers;
  • Mid December: Over-80s;
  • Late December: Over-70s;
  • Early January: Over-65s and high-risk younger adults, such as those with serious illnesses;
  • Mid January: Over-50s;
  • Late January: All adults over the age of 18. Most of this group will not actually get vaccinated until spring.
So it is quite possible that younger people (under the age of 50) will not be vaccinated until after Easter, unless perhaps they have an underlying medical condition.

However vaccination of the most vulnerable people will allow restrictions to be lifted progressively, as each stage of the program is completed. If younger people are vaccinated after Easter, it will enable mass participation events such as Glastonbury and all the summer festivals (eg Gay Pride) to take place.
The quoted effectiveness (e.g. 90+%) of the vaccines is measured starting 2 weeks after the SECOND jab and measures the reduction in Covid infection with symptoms in the Pfizer case (no stats on asymptomatic infections or effectiveness), the earlier stage (1&2) trials for probable first 5 vaccines showed that the second jab is key to effectiveness. Hence any one getting the jab this week (very few will) and the second after 4 weeks (min. spacing is 4 weeks). Won't hit the effective measuring point till 15th January at the earliest. Hence there will be a time lag before we start seeing the effect.

The vaccines have been testing on people without underlying health conditions, many of those hospitalised have known underlying health conditions and there is no data on vaccine effectiveness for that group.

There is no data on the effectiveness of the vaccine at reducing transmission (the Oxford Phase 3 trial has come the closest to gathering data).

The vaccine time table outlined above looks impossible.
The vaccine supply isn't there to do that, the only vaccines available until Easter will be Pfizer and Oxford/AZ and only enough for just over half the adult population.
The max vaccination rate will be about 1m per week (but limited by supplies) for quite a while, no pint in ramping up capability too quickly when the supply is limited.
 

Crossover

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Good news to wake up to. Fingers crossed its the beginning of the end although I expect even next Christmas will be affected in some way, maybe even quite a lot.
It feels like the tide may start to turn. The rebellion against the Government was much more marked last night compared to the Lockdown vote 4 or so weeks ago. I am firmly of the belief that should significant impositions still be in place once the vaccination programme is in good flow then there is going to be a much bigger outcry, particuarly if the daily numbers continue to go in the "right direction"
 

hwl

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From what I've said they expect to get all who want it from vulnerable and over 60s done by Easter at which point the risk profile reduces significantly. Shortly after all over 50s at which point the prediction is most restrictions would be eased. With restrictions eased progressively until that point.
By the time we get to Easter the weather will start to help in big way (Winter : summer prevalence of the 4 traditionally circulating human corona viruses is around 9:1).
As per my comment above there is time lag been first jab and protective effect, hence I don't think we will see much relaxation till later Feb or early March at the earliest as serious case numbers will continue to fill hospitals for while yet.
Full vaccination likely to take all year.
Yes - that is what everything is pointing to
Remember we are at the moment limited by the supply not our ability to vaccinate as far as I am aware.
It will be till Easter at least. The initial high vaccination rates will be enabled by lots of doses already manufactured over the last 6 months, the current production rates aren't that high but should improve rapidly in 2021
 

duncanp

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Slightly off-topic for this thread, but a correction it is every 14 days. The first review is the 16th December, then the 30th etc...

The review on whether each local authority should remain in it's current tier is every 14 days, on the timetable that you have quoted.

But there is also a provision that the restrictions in each tier should be reviewed at least every 28 days, separate to whether an individual local authority moves tiers.

The relevant paragraph from the legislation is below:-

14.—(1) The Secretary of State must review—

(a)whether each area that is part of the Tier 2 area or of the Tier 3 area should continue to be part of that area at least once every 14 days, with the first review to be carried out by 16th December 2020;

(b)the need for each of the Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 restrictions at least once every 28 days, with the first review to be carried out by 30th December 2020.
 

MikeWM

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The vaccines have been testing on people without underlying health conditions, many of those hospitalised have known underlying health conditions and there is no data on vaccine effectiveness for that group.

I don't want to be a Cassandra here, but given previous conversations I'm surprised that I appear to be the only one. This should ring very large alarm bells in anyone looking at this objectively.

This vaccine uses a totally new, never-before-tried mechanism. We can have no idea at this point of whether there are any long-term effects or consequences. We also don't know if there is risk of antibody-dependent amplification in specific segments of the population - a particular issue that has arisen before in attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine.

Under no other circumstances would this have been approved on such a timescale or study size.

Maybe all will be fine. But with so many safeguards having been removed and bypassed, I fear we may look back at this in the way we look back now at Thalidomide or DDT, or potentially even worse. If I were responsible for the healthcare of someone elderly or vulnerable, personally I'd strongly try to persuade them to stay away, at least *for a while*.
 
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This vaccine rollout will be to hospitals and big vaccination centres only, because of the - 80 storage thing. Not a big problem, but it means that people will have to travel. I guess for care homes it'll be a case of minibusing to and fro. Despite this however, the approval of this vaccine is excellent news.

The big one, which will probably be next week, is the approval of the Oxford vaccine. That will be able to be rolled out to GP surgeries, Town halls, wherever.

The logistics problems of cold storage of the Pfizer vaccine has been exaggerated.
Outside of deep-cold freezers (which would be the bulk storage at major facilities) it can store in dry ice packs for 10 days and then 5 further days in a standard fridge once thawed so deployment to doctors, chemists and pop-up vaccination centres will not be a significant issue


More detail: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54889084
 

Darandio

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I don't want to be a Cassandra here, but given previous conversations I'm surprised that I appear to be the only one. This should ring very large alarm bells in anyone looking at this objectively.

This vaccine uses a totally new, never-before-tried mechanism. We can have no idea at this point of whether there are any long-term effects or consequences. We also don't know if there is risk of antibody-dependent amplification in specific segments of the population - a particular issue that has arisen before in attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine.

Under no other circumstances would this have been approved on such a timescale or study size.

Maybe all will be fine. But with so many safeguards having been removed and bypassed, I fear we may look back at this in the way we look back now at Thalidomide or DDT, or potentially even worse. If I were responsible for the healthcare of someone elderly or vulnerable, personally I'd strongly try to persuade them to stay away, at least *for a while*.

You aren't the only one with potential fears about it, i've posted about it several times. There are multiple unknowns in this whole scenario as you mention above, couple to this a change in Human Medicine Regulations to allow a temporary supply of unlicensed products and certain protections for manufacturers against liability, people have every right to raise questions.
 

Bantamzen

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The logistics problems of cold storage of the Pfizer vaccine has been exaggerated.
Outside of deep-cold freezers (which would be the bulk storage at major facilities) it can store in dry ice packs for 10 days and then 5 further days in a standard fridge once thawed so deployment to doctors, chemists and pop-up vaccination centres will not be a significant issue


More detail: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54889084
It will still need a fair amount of logistical planning, you don't want to risk losing lots of it because planning wasn't in place. So it will likely be invitation only for this one at least for those away from places that can store it in deep freeze.
 

The Ham

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I don't want to be a Cassandra here, but given previous conversations I'm surprised that I appear to be the only one. This should ring very large alarm bells in anyone looking at this objectively.

This vaccine uses a totally new, never-before-tried mechanism. We can have no idea at this point of whether there are any long-term effects or consequences. We also don't know if there is risk of antibody-dependent amplification in specific segments of the population - a particular issue that has arisen before in attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine.

Under no other circumstances would this have been approved on such a timescale or study size.

Maybe all will be fine. But with so many safeguards having been removed and bypassed, I fear we may look back at this in the way we look back now at Thalidomide or DDT, or potentially even worse. If I were responsible for the healthcare of someone elderly or vulnerable, personally I'd strongly try to persuade them to stay away, at least *for a while*.

What safeguards have been removed/bypassed?

The reason that most vaccines take so long to develop is that they take time finding funding for each phase of development and testing and then at each stage of testing with people or takes time to get people to volunteer, both those add years and years to the process, something which hasn't been an issue for Covid-19.

Whilst the delivery method is new, in the case of the Oxford vaccine is been in development for a few years now and it's just programming of it to be for Covid that is new.
 

ainsworth74

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From what I've said they expect to get all who want it from vulnerable and over 60s done by Easter at which point the risk profile reduces significantly. Shortly after all over 50s at which point the prediction is most restrictions would be eased. With restrictions eased progressively until that point. Full vaccination likely to take all year. Remember we are at the moment limited by the supply not our ability to vaccinate as far as I am aware.

That's the timeline I've been working to in my own head. Easter should see the most vulnerable in terms of age/health (or both!) inoculated which should allow a significant easing of restrictions as we go into summer and begin to rollout to other less vulnerable groups. Obviously I hope that some restrictions can be eased prior to Easter but I'm banking on significant changes around Easter.

What safeguards have been removed/bypassed?

The reason that most vaccines take so long to develop is that they take time finding funding for each phase of development and testing and then at each stage of testing with people or takes time to get people to volunteer, both those add years and years to the process, something which hasn't been an issue for Covid-19.
Yes I'm curious about that too. From what I've heard scientists involved in this have been doing the opposite to skipping things and actually consciously keeping protocols in place that they probably could skip exactly to ensure that people can be confident! They've just been able to save time by having vast sums of money avalanched on top of them so they've been able to do things like going straight from one set of trials into another set without needing the usual funding bunfight.
 
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