Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[Yew]

The BBC do love to him and his firm a lot of free publicity. I wouldn't particularly take any notice of what he's got to say on anything - it'll probably never come to anything

Indeed, I'll remember to avoid them..

 

[birchesgreen]

I would have thought it would have been quite a few months before any of his staff would be eligible for the jab?

 

[Alex C.]

Presumably it could also be very easily challenged in courts

Pimlico Plumbers have form for this and will continue to use the argument that their plumbers are self employed rather than workers, meaning they don't benefit from the protection of disability discrimination law in employment.

At a previous case outlined here

The Claimant believed that he was self-employed. He had his own accountant, was VAT registered and paid a salary to his wife for performing administrative duties. Following a heart attack and period of pro-longed absence, the Claimant’s agreement was terminated by the Respondent.

The Claimant felt this was unfair and initiated unfair dismissal and entitlement to holiday pay and sick pay claims against the Respondent. He also lodged a direct disability claims against the Respondent and its Chief Executive, Charlie Mullins.

Pimlico Plumbers lost the case as far as the court of appeal but it was overturned in the Supreme Court where Pimlico Plumbers won (this has been edited - I previously stated that they lost the case in error)

Outside of that case, If you've worked for an employer for less than two years, and there is no medical reason you can't have a vaccination I can't think of a successful claim someone could bring in an employment tribunal if you were dismissed for not having one.

 

[DustyBin]

Great. Just watch the legions begin to argue that we should just let infection run rife through communities or pass the jab because they’ve had COVID already...

I think further evidence is required before we reach conclusions, but if this is actually the case surely it strengthens the argument for vaccinating the most vulnerable and then lifting most if not all restrictions? Restrictions come with a significant (and I don’t only mean monetary) cost remember. When the cost is so high we must not subscribe to a dogmatic belief that only vaccines can save us, not if/when there is evidence to the contrary.

How is the existence of the immune system "news"? This has been known about for centuries.

Quite, but it’s no longer fit for purpose apparently....

 

[Bayum]

I think further evidence is required before we reach conclusions, but if this is actually the case surely it strengthens the argument for vaccinating the most vulnerable and then lifting most if not all restrictions? Restrictions come with a significant (and I don’t only mean monetary) cost remember. When the cost is so high we must not subscribe to a dogmatic belief that only vaccines can save us, not if/when there is evidence to the contrary.

Absolutely not. When will people get it into their heads that this is not just about the vulnerable picking up the virus? That’s only part of the manoeuvre. The NHS is in dire straits right now and the virus is having a big impact on those under the age of 65 - the NHS has said that above a quarter of hospital admissions are those under 65. If we just continue to shield the vulnerable, as we have been, we will always end up in this situation. Vaccine is needed to reduce disease severity in all age groups so that the NHS can cope with future demand.

 

[johntea]

So as a NHS worker I can get vaccinated and have booked a slot, but what does seem slightly counterintuitive at the moment is they are actually now vaccinating in a council owned building literally next door to my house but instead I'm having to do a 60 mile round trip to my workplace instead (twice to receive both doses)

There are a lot of colleagues in the same position, who live miles away from the main hospital site and are of course working from home at the moment (this is support staff not medical of course), I think the record at the moment is a colleague that got married recently and moved 80 miles away (160 mile round trip)! Obviously they don't visit the hospital site too much even without a pandemic!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What is the current officially pronounced state of play regarding the matter of pharmacies and Covid-19 vaccine injections. These pharmacies have been injecting flu vaccine for quite some time now. I understand the large Boots group in particular feel they can administer a large number of the Covid-19 vaccine injections.

On a personal level, both my good lady wife (79) and I (75) received the first of our Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine injections a few days ago. My wife qualifies as she suffers from Vascular Dementia and I appear to have qualified as she lives at home with me and I am her accredited carer. We were notified that we would be recalled in 10-12 weeks for the second injections.

 

[The Ham]

So as a NHS worker I can get vaccinated and have booked a slot, but what does seem slightly counterintuitive at the moment is they are actually now vaccinating in a council owned building literally next door to my house but instead I'm having to do a 60 mile round trip to my workplace instead (twice to receive both doses)

There are a lot of colleagues in the same position, who live miles away from the main hospital site and are of course working from home at the moment (this is support staff not medical of course), I think the record at the moment is a colleague that got married recently and moved 80 miles away (160 mile round trip)! Obviously they don't visit the hospital site too much even without a pandemic!

Herein lies a key concern by many, that admin staff who are working at home are able to get the vaccine whilst frontline staff aren't because the shots have been taken up by those admin staff.

That's not too say that those admin staff if they were off wouldn't cause issues for the trust, rather that there should be a priority list within NHS trusts so that those who are frontline staff (including someone I know who is acute care at home, who goes house to house keeping patients at home rather than needing a hospital bed) can get their vaccine quickly and easily (as it is the person I know has had it by being advised of leftover vaccine at the end of the day).

What is the current officially pronounced state of play regarding the matter of pharmacies and Covid-19 vaccine injections. These pharmacies have been injecting flu vaccine for quite some time now. I understand the large Boots group in particular feel they can administer a large number of the Covid-19 vaccine injections.

On a personal level, both my good lady wife (79) and I (75) received the first of our Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine injections a few days ago. My wife qualifies as she suffers from Vascular Dementia and I appear to have qualified as she lives at home with me and I am her accredited carer. We were notified that we would be recalled in 10-12 weeks for the second injections.

Boots have started to provide vaccine at some of their larger stores, however the government directly require then to be able to do large numbers (IIRC 1,000 a day) at each site so that limits what they can do.

It's have thought that it would be better to be able to offer 100 sites doing 100 a day or even 1,000 sites doing 30 a day than 5 sites doing 1,000.

Obviously you don't want to add to the government supply chain issues, but you could fairly easily deliver 1,000 to a given branch and they (as in Boots) then distributes that to other nearby branches.

 

[DustyBin]

Absolutely not. When will people get it into their heads that this is not just about the vulnerable picking up the virus? That’s only part of the manoeuvre. The NHS is in dire straits right now and the virus is having a big impact on those under the age of 65 - the NHS has said that above a quarter of hospital admissions are those under 65. If we just continue to shield the vulnerable, as we have been, we will always end up in this situation. Vaccine is needed to reduce disease severity in all age groups so that the NHS can cope with future demand.

We won’t always end up in this position though, that’s the point. We’ll have herd immunity. Don’t forget that the NHS is operating with reduced capacity in effect, partly as a result of social distancing on wards but largely due to so many front line staff having to self isolate. This was always going to be a bad winter for obvious reasons and yet the NHS failed to prepare. Saying that over a quarter of hospital admissions are aged under 65 means very little. There are plenty of vulnerable people in this group and it’s easy to play the percentage game by simply not admitting those over 65 (or over 70, 75, 80 etc.).

 

[35B]

We won’t always end up in this position though, that’s the point. We’ll have herd immunity. Don’t forget that the NHS is operating with reduced capacity in effect, partly as a result of social distancing on wards but largely due to so many front line staff having to self isolate. This was always going to be a bad winter for obvious reasons and yet the NHS failed to prepare. Saying that over a quarter of hospital admissions are aged under 65 means very little. There are plenty of vulnerable people in this group and it’s easy to play the percentage game by simply not admitting those over 65 (or over 70, 75, 80 etc.).

Failed to prepare, or was already operating on very fine margins?

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely not. When will people get it into their heads that this is not just about the vulnerable picking up the virus? That’s only part of the manoeuvre. The NHS is in dire straits right now and the virus is having a big impact on those under the age of 65 - the NHS has said that above a quarter of hospital admissions are those under 65. If we just continue to shield the vulnerable, as we have been, we will always end up in this situation. Vaccine is needed to reduce disease severity in all age groups so that the NHS can cope with future demand.

That's an argument for carrying precautions forward for a while, such as social distancing, face coverings indoors etc.

To my mind, it doesn't justify months on end of lockdown.

 

[DustyBin]

Failed to prepare, or was already operating on very fine margins?

Undoubtedly both! There’s no denying the latter but that’s all the more reason to make preparations. It appears that senior management have acted like rabbits in headlights since last summer.

That's an argument for carrying precautions forward for a while, such as social distancing, face coverings indoors etc.

To my mind, it doesn't justify months on end of lockdown.

The reality is we’re nearly a year in now and we know how the virus behaves. We failed to take advantage of the spring and summer months last year and we must not make that mistake again. Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated we need to allow natural herd immunity to develop (alongside the vaccination programme).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The reality is we’re nearly a year in now and we know how the virus behaves.

Does that statement above above assume that all variations that are evolving of the virus have to be dealt with by the same medication?

 

[DustyBin]

Does that statement above above assume that all variations that are evolving of the virus have to be dealt with by the same medication?

No I wasn’t referring to how future strains may respond to pharmaceutical interventions; that we don’t know. We do however know that the virus behaves seasonally, and whilst this may appear obvious now, there was little if any recognition of this last year until it was too late.

 

[Yew]

No I wasn’t referring to how future strains may respond to pharmaceutical interventions; that we don’t know. We do however know that the virus behaves seasonally, and whilst this may appear obvious now, there was little if any recognition of this last year until it was too late.

Indeed, there seem to be people who are amazed that this respiratory virus behaves much like other respiratory viruses.

 

[DerekC]

My 100-year old father in law is cared for in a residential home not far away. They have managed to keep the virus out of the home despite a couple of positive tests amongst the staff. They have just had their second promised date for vaccination cancelled, reportedly because the local GP service has failed to get the promised delivery. The staff are really worried that the variant virus will get there first, after all their efforts.

Is the delay in vaccinating care homes a one-off problem in our area or is it (as I fear) a result of supplies being prioritised to the government-run super-hubs so that Boris's promises on numbers can be delivered? Any evidence from elsewhere would be appreciated. (I have read the government's vaccination plan which says that all care homes will be done by end January, but I never underestimate their ability to cock things up).

 

[DustyBin]

My 100-year old father in law is cared for in a residential home not far away. They have managed to keep the virus out of the home despite a couple of positive tests amongst the staff. They have just had their second promised date for vaccination cancelled, reportedly because the local GP service has failed to get the promised delivery. The staff are really worried that the variant virus will get there first, after all their efforts.

Is the delay in vaccinating care homes a one-off problem in our area or is it (as I fear) a result of supplies being prioritised to the government-run super-hubs so that Boris's promises on numbers can be delivered? Any evidence from elsewhere would be appreciated. (I have read the government's vaccination plan which says that all care homes will be done by end January, but I never underestimate their ability to cock things up).

My uncle who is 84 had his appointment cancelled last week as they’d ran out of vaccines. He’s not in a care home so that suggests a wider issue. It obviously doesn’t disprove your theory though and one could be forgiven for thinking a little cynically at this stage....

 

[Bayum]

We won’t always end up in this position though, that’s the point. We’ll have herd immunity. Don’t forget that the NHS is operating with reduced capacity in effect, partly as a result of social distancing on wards but largely due to so many front line staff having to self isolate. This was always going to be a bad winter for obvious reasons and yet the NHS failed to prepare. Saying that over a quarter of hospital admissions are aged under 65 means very little. There are plenty of vulnerable people in this group and it’s easy to play the percentage game by simply not admitting those over 65 (or over 70, 75, 80 etc.).

Until people are vaccinated, yes, we will. Can you imagine if we continued at the rate currently? This is with the supposed five months protection previous COVID infection gives. Vaccination is the only viable way to reduce the severity of the disease and stopping the mass hospitalisation leading to the situation we see currently.

 

[Domh245]

Undoubtedly both! There’s no denying the latter but that’s all the more reason to make preparations. It appears that senior management have acted like rabbits in headlights since last summer.

To (somewhat) defend them, there's only so much that can be done to make preparations - staff generally can't be magic-ed up out of thin air for example. It's quite clear though that they are doing what they can to make preparations, for example if you look at ICU capacity in London* you can see that they've somehow managed to good as double the ICU capacity (as of 10/1) to try and match demand (AIUI at the expense of general & acute beds hence cancellations to pretty much everything else) so to accuse the NHS of doing nothing isn't quite right.




*in response to an earlier post about why the FT was only using London graphs for ICU beds, I realise now it's because the other NHS regions have been fairly inconsistent over the previous few years - for example in 17/18 there were 4 regions (London, North, South, and Midlands & East) to the 7 this year (London, Midlands, East of England, North West, NE & Yorks, South East and South West)

 

[Yew]

Until people are vaccinated, yes, we will. Can you imagine if we continued at the rate currently? This is with the supposed five months protection previous COVID infection gives. Vaccination is the only viable way to reduce the severity of the disease and stopping the mass hospitalisation leading to the situation we see currently.

Could you provide some evidence to back up your assertion please?

 

[DustyBin]

Until people are vaccinated, yes, we will. Can you imagine if we continued at the rate currently? This is with the supposed five months protection previous COVID infection gives. Vaccination is the only viable way to reduce the severity of the disease and stopping the mass hospitalisation leading to the situation we see currently.

It won’t continue at the current rate though, the infection rate can’t rise exponentially, the virus will run out of people to infect. We seemingly don’t know how long immunity lasts, be it natural or that offered by the vaccines at this stage. The reality is, vaccinating the vulnerable and anybody else who wants it is sensible, but once those who contribute disproportionately to hospital admissions and deaths are protected, the rest of us should be allowed to get on with our lives. I honestly believe the virus will become endemic and we’ll learn to live with and tolerate it as we do with flu.

 

[MikeWM]

Undoubtedly both! There’s no denying the latter but that’s all the more reason to make preparations. It appears that senior management have acted like rabbits in headlights since last summer.

Apparently (I didn't see it myself) last week Granada News had an interview with someone running one of the big hospitals near Liverpool, and he related that he had been begging for increased winter capacity all summer, and it fell on deaf ears.

I expect his directing blame at the government/NHS management - rather than the public for not following 'rules' - will mean that he gets clamped down on.

 

[DustyBin]

To (somewhat) defend them, there's only so much that can be done to make preparations - staff generally can't be magic-ed up out of thin air for example. It's quite clear though that they are doing what they can to make preparations, for example if you look at ICU capacity in London* you can see that they've somehow managed to good as double the ICU capacity (as of 10/1) to try and match demand (AIUI at the expense of general & acute beds hence cancellations to pretty much everything else) so to accuse the NHS of doing nothing isn't quite right.

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*in response to an earlier post about why the FT was only using London graphs for ICU beds, I realise now it's because the other NHS regions have been fairly inconsistent over the previous few years - for example in 17/18 there were 4 regions (London, North, South, and Midlands & East) to the 7 this year (London, Midlands, East of England, North West, NE & Yorks, South East and South West)

That’s fair enough, the frustration among front line staff doesn’t appear to relate to ICU bed numbers though. There seems to be a lot of red tape preventing people with transferable skills being utilised fully for example, it’s anecdotal evidence but when there is so much of it I’m not sure it can be dismissed.

 

[6862]

I honestly believe the virus will become endemic

I agree with this.

and we’ll learn to live with and tolerate it as we do with flu.

But not this - it would require humility and acceptance that we are sometimes wrong about the best course of action. I don't think that's likely to be something our politicians or chief scientists are likely to do any time soon (they lack the humility). I wish you were right, but I doubt it.

 

[Domh245]

That’s fair enough, the frustration among front line staff doesn’t appear to relate to ICU bed numbers though. There seems to be a lot of red tape preventing people with transferable skills being utilised fully for example, it’s anecdotal evidence but when there is so much of it I’m not sure it can be dismissed.

I thought most of the red tape issues were with vaccination, although that may just be the one that gained the most media attention (the 'why do they need anti-radicalisation training to jab people's arms' stories a couple weeks back). It's inevitable that there'll be plenty of things coming out in the wash years down the line where the NHS could have done more, but as it is I think they've done a pretty good job to treat as many as they can.

But not this - it would require humility and acceptance that we are sometimes wrong about the best course of action. I don't think that's likely to be something our politicians or chief scientists are likely to do any time soon (they lack the humility). I wish you were right, but I doubt it.

Thankfully, there is some cause for optimism there. One of Whitty's last appearances in the Downing Street press conference he was saying words to the effect of "we'll have to learn to live with this and accept a certain number of deaths each year going forward, but that's a political decision"

 

[HSTEd]

Over 300,000 doses administered yesterday.

Looks like we are finally getting somewhere.

 

[chris11256]

If that carries on they've met the the 2 million a week target.

 

[HSTEd]

If that carries on they've met the the 2 million a week target.

Assuming nothing bad happens over this mess with Scotland screaming to the world about how many vaccines we have, they hope to dramatically exceed the two million per week target by the end of February.

 

[Domh245]

Assuming nothing bad happens over this mess with Scotland screaming to the world about how many vaccines we have, they hope to dramatically exceed the two million per week target by the end of February.

And in a good example of why they've tried to underpromise on the vaccines number, Pfizer have said that they'll be temporarily reducing deliveries to all European (the continent) countries to change the manufacturing process to increase production. Not being hugely dependant on Pfizer (relatively) we'll be able to weather this better than most other countries but it'll probably result in a bit of a dip to both reflect lower delivery numbers and to preserve stocks for second doses

European countries, including the UK, are set to receive fewer vaccines than expected from Pfizer starting next week, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, further complicating the slow rollout of inoculations across the continent.
Geir Bukholm, director of infection control at NIPH, said the US pharmaceutical company told Norway on Friday morning that it would receive 18 per cent fewer doses than expected next week.
He added that the temporary reduction would affect all European countries as Pfizer reorganises its production in order to increase its capacity this year from 1.3bn doses to 2bn.
As it said it was working to deliver more doses than originally planned this year, Pfizer warned estimated volumes of coronavirus vaccine doses delivered to each country in a given quarter “may need to be adjusted”.
It confirmed that an increase in manufacturing meant modifications to the process were necessary and that these required additional regulatory approvals.
“Although this will temporarily impact shipments in late January to early February, it will provide a significant increase in doses available for patients in late February and March,” it said.
As a result, it said there may be fluctuations in orders and shipping schedules at its Belgian facility of Puurs in the immediate future.
Supply to the UK, which comes from the same plant, would also see fluctuations, Pfizer said.
Norway, which will now receive 36,075 doses next week instead of the 43,875 it had been expecting, said it did not know how long it would take Pfizer to get back to maximum capacity.
The Scandinavian country, like several other European countries, has been keeping a stockpile of doses in case there were problems with deliveries and said it would now draw from this emergency pool of vaccines. Mr Bukholm said Norway had enough to cover “a few weeks ahead” if needed.

 

[TheBeard]

Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days

Studies of hundreds of thousands of Israeli vaccinees provide real-world info on efficacy; but health official also warns 17% of current serious cases had already gotten 1st shot

www.timesofisrael.com

50% after one Pfizer vaccine at 2 weeks....