Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[nlogax]

Just had my arm pumped full o'AstraZenecas. Lovely stuff.

 

[Snow1964]

Just had an interesting conversation with my brother today. He has been offered a vaccination for tomorrow at his local doctor's practice, despite the fact he is only 43 years old and not registered as vulnerable. Considering that the under-50s were not supposed to be even considered until much nearer to mid-April, I can only imagine this means that the part of Central Bedfordshire we live in is so far ahead on the vaccination rollout that it can already start offering vaccines to the under-50s.

It’s all over the place, my doctors called me 6 days after NHS opened for my age group.

Our local news in Wiltshire has reported that an official has suggested all adults in the county will be offered by end April, about 2 months ahead of government target.

But I suppose age profiles of population vary quite a bit between parts of the country, must take much longer to do older people in a retirement town etc

 

[NorthOxonian]

It’s all over the place, my doctors called me 6 days after NHS opened for my age group.

Our local news in Wiltshire has reported that an official has suggested all adults in the county will be offered by end April, about 2 months ahead of government target.

But I suppose age profiles of population vary quite a bit between parts of the country, must take much longer to do older people in a retirement town etc

I can well believe it - most of the wards in Wiltshire has now vaccinated a majority of adults. The only places where the vaccination rates seem fairly low are parts of Chippenham (seemingly the commuter areas so probably have a fairly young demographic) and around Tidworth where all the military bases are.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Some more positive news regarding vaccinations this evening:

Exclusive: Vaccines for all over-40s by Easter after ‘bumper boost’ to supplies

NHS could offer a million doses a day in coming weeks, as pressure grows on PM to speed up reopening of pubs and restaurants

www.telegraph.co.uk

Everyone over 40 should be offered their first Covid-19 vaccine by Easter, with a “bumper boost” to supplies allowing the programme to rapidly expand next week, The Telegraph can reveal.

Stocks are expected to more than double, allowing the NHS to administer up to a million doses a day in coming weeks, government sources said.

It means that all over-50s are expected to receive an invitation for a jab over the next week – around three weeks ahead of the Government’s target.

The Prime Minister had promised that jabs would be offered to all over-50s by April 15, and to everyone over the age of 18 by the end of July.

However, senior government sources said the programme was already far ahead of expectations and about to accelerate dramatically.

As a result, there is growing confidence that all adults over 40 will have been offered a first dose of the vaccine before Easter, which falls on April 4. It will also increase pressure on the Government to speed up the exit from lockdown.

On Friday night, Tory MPs said the progress, combined with continued falls in cases and hospitalisations, meant pubs and restaurants should be allowed to open from Easter. The current plan allows only “al fresco” hospitality to open a week later, with indoor eating and drinking not allowed until May.

The UK's R number has now dropped to between 0.6 and 0.8, down from 0.7 to 0.9 a week ago, with prevalence of coronavirus in England now the lowest it has been since September, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Over the weekend, health officials will focus efforts on ensuring that all remaining under-65s with underlying conditions are offered jabs, with those eligible sent texts allowing them to book a slot at a mass vaccination centre.

Those aged 50 to 55 are next in line, with hope that all nine priority vaccine groups – including everyone over 50 – can be offered their first jab by Mar 23, the anniversary of Britain’s first lockdown.

Vaccination sites have been told to inform health officials by next Friday at the latest if they have offered jabs to everyone in the first phase of the programme and are able to start phase two.

Supplies for the rest of this month were so substantial that it should then take less than a fortnight to offer jabs to everyone in their 40s, ahead of the Easter weekend, a senior government source said.

Vaccination sites have been instructed to recruit extra staff, and make use of thousands of volunteers to ensure the programme keeps accelerating, with extra “pop-up” vaccination clinics in workplaces, shopping centres and leisure centres.

If the pace continues to be maintained, it would mean that all adults could have their first jab before pubs and restaurants fully reopen on May 17.

However, sources said that while supplies would receive a further boost at the start of April, as a third vaccine, Moderna, becomes available, manufacturing challenges for some of the vaccines may slow the later phase of the rollout.

One senior government source declared “we will do better” than publicly stated targets, saying there was optimism that all adults over-40 would be offered a first dose of the vaccine by Easter, as more supply was coming online than was initially anticipated.

Another source said: “We have got a bumper month coming up, supply is no longer a constraint; it’s about what the system can cope with. We could hit a million a day soon.”

The source said the main challenge facing the vaccination programme in coming weeks was whether the health service could keep up with the large supplies coming its way.

While the rate may slow during April, he said there was optimism that the rest of the adult population would be offered first jabs long before the target of Jul 31.

However, he said there was concern that higher rates of vaccine hesitancy among younger age groups may mean it took longer for the programme to achieve good uptake.

The first government source said uncertainty about supplies after Easter meant it was too ambitious to expect all adults to be offered their first jab before the full opening of pubs and restaurants is due on May 17.

In total, 23.3 million people in the UK have now received their first dose of the vaccine – with half the adult population expected to have had their first jab by next week.

NHS leaders have been told that for at least three weeks, they will receive double the supply of first doses they had previously been receiving – on top of stocks for second doses, meaning daily doses could far exceed the current daily record of 598,389.

However, the Department of Health last night said it was “incorrect” that over-40s would be offered jabs by Easter, only committing to the published timetable.

A spokesman said: “We have set out our timelines for the vaccination programme and there is no change to this. We intend to offer a first dose to all over-50s by mid-April and all adults by the end of July.”

Tory MPs said the speed of the rollout meant the Government should hasten the exit from lockdown, and allow pubs and restaurants to open fully from the Easter weekend.

Steve Baker, deputy chairman of the Covid Recovery Group of Tory lockdown sceptics, said: “The Government must answer why it’s determined to stick to dates on reopening hospitality.

“I’m clear ‘Covid-secure’ hospitality should be open at Easter if it’s safe."

Consternation is growing among Tory MPs about the continued relaxation of legal standards in adult social care, under the Coronavirus Act 2020, which means care homes are not being inspected. The rules were relaxed in order to relieve pressure on the sector at the height of the pandemic.

However, the growing concern raises the prospect of a rebellion against the Government if ministers do not amend the act when it comes before the House for renewal later this month.

 

[Bald Rick]

Some more positive news regarding vaccinations this evening:

Exclusive: Vaccines for all over-40s by Easter after ‘bumper boost’ to supplies

NHS could offer a million doses a day in coming weeks, as pressure grows on PM to speed up reopening of pubs and restaurants

www.telegraph.co.uk

Good news. The week after next is when the second dose campaign really kicks on, and we need to be up in the region of 3-400k per day for that alone.

We also need the under 50s not to be complacent, and they need to go and get immunised.

 

[HSTEd]

They better be able to deliver, this week does not look good.

We also need the under 50s not to be complacent, and they need to go and get immunised.

I for one will be happy to get a vaccine to lay another brick in the road of the detailed by Troy McClure.

Man versus Nature: The Road to Victory

 

[Bald Rick]

They better be able to deliver, this week does not look good

I think this is the week where there was expected to be a temporary slowdown in supply. I could be wrong.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They better be able to deliver, this week does not look good.



I for one will be happy to get a vaccine to lay another brick in the road of the detailed by Troy McClure.

Man versus Nature: The Road to Victory

Scotland had already said on there daily briefings last week doses this week would be lower but have already briefed expecting a big uplift in doses from next week. English lot have always played the cards close over supplies though. Also i get the feeling as well that the better it gets they move the goalposts again before we know it it will be everybody has have both doses then it will be the booster. So good to see CRG are back out on the warpath but with the opposition utterly committed to zero covid unlikely see any change.

 

[takno]

Scotland had already said on there daily briefings last week doses this week would be lower but have already briefed expecting a big uplift in doses from next week. English lot have always played the cards close over supplies though. Also i get the feeling as well that the better it gets they move the goalposts again before we know it it will be everybody has have both doses then it will be the booster. So good to see CRG are back out on the warpath but with the opposition utterly committed to zero covid unlikely see any change.

Labour are utterly commited to whatever we think will win us support. It's not a policy I'm a fan of, but frankly with the press where they are it might have been the only viable option for the opposition. If vaccinations speed up and public support for lockdown continues to wane at pace then I'm sure Starmer will get the message that it's time to switch horses.

My personal prediction is that within six months they will all be shouting angrily at Matt Hancock that they have been begging him to stop it with the restrictions since 2019

 

[YorkshireBear]

This week isn't so bad. Still £350K some days when combining second doses.

 

[greyman42]

Labour are utterly commited to whatever we think will win us support. It's not a policy I'm a fan of, but frankly with the press where they are it might have been the only viable option for the opposition. If vaccinations speed up and public support for lockdown continues to wane at pace then I'm sure Starmer will get the message that it's time to switch horses.

My personal prediction is that within six months they will all be shouting angrily at Matt Hancock that they have been begging him to stop it with the restrictions since 2019

But I and many others will not forget that they were shouting for longer lockdowns and more restrictions.

 

[yorkie]

If anyone is vaccine hesitant, and wishes to post their views in this area, please use the following thread:

A quick poll about taking the vaccine.

I am very interested how it will protect those who don’t take the vaccine maybe I don’t believe it given I’ve read the virus is out there and I could catch it so it’s confusing. I guess it means nice enough are vaccinated even if I refuse I could be protected but right now not everybody had the...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[brad465]

Labour are utterly commited to whatever we think will win us support. It's not a policy I'm a fan of, but frankly with the press where they are it might have been the only viable option for the opposition. If vaccinations speed up and public support for lockdown continues to wane at pace then I'm sure Starmer will get the message that it's time to switch horses.

My personal prediction is that within six months they will all be shouting angrily at Matt Hancock that they have been begging him to stop it with the restrictions since 2019

That's if Matt Hancock is still in the job by then, I would not be surprised if he resigns and heads out of the spotlight, in part on legitimate fatigue grounds but also to claim he's going out on a high if all restrictions are gone just before, speeding up the rollout and lifting of restrictions could hasten that.

It's great to hear the vaccine rollout will be picking up shortly; this really needs to be at the expense of all this ridiculous mass testing we're doing, which with each passing day is becoming more and more obsolete.

Does anyone know when our first Moderna and J&J supplies will turn up? The former from memory should arrive next month, but haven't heard much on the latter, with most of its press linked to distribution in the US.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Hmmm. So countries pausing AZ vaccine is snowballing to be quite a lot of western Europe's countries.

The media coverage is very clear, they are over cautious and the percentage of events is no different to what you would normally expect in a population. Leads into several questions, Is the British media coverage defending AZ at all costs as a British vaccine? Will this reduce uptake and massively damage vaccine confidence globally?

 

[packermac]

Hmmm. So countries pausing AZ vaccine is snowballing to be quite a lot of western Europe's countries.

The media coverage is very clear, they are over cautious and the percentage of events is no different to what you would normally expect in a population. Leads into several questions, Is the British media coverage defending AZ at all costs as a British vaccine? Will this reduce uptake and massively damage vaccine confidence globally?

Well apparently Germany and France are still moving forward with a lot of AZ vaccine despite their initial over 65 issues, and the European Health Agency says the AZ vaccine is safe. So there must be politics in this somewhere, but against whom, UK, EU in Brussels I have no idea.

 

[Richard Scott]

Well apparently Germany and France are still moving forward with a lot of AZ vaccine despite their initial over 65 issues, and the European Health Agency says the AZ vaccine is safe. So there must be politics in this somewhere, but against whom, UK, EU in Brussels I have no idea.

Probably some jumping on the bandwagon, seen a lot of that over past year. They seem happy to do it with no idea where the bandwagon is going or where it'll lead them. They don't learn.

 

[duncanp]

Hmmm. So countries pausing AZ vaccine is snowballing to be quite a lot of western Europe's countries.

The media coverage is very clear, they are over cautious and the percentage of events is no different to what you would normally expect in a population. Leads into several questions, Is the British media coverage defending AZ at all costs as a British vaccine? Will this reduce uptake and massively damage vaccine confidence globally?

I think many EU countries are pausing the Astra Zeneca vaccine and trying to rubbish it for political reasons.

The European Medicines Agency says that it is safe to use, as does the World Health Organisation.

If there was an issue with blood clotting, it would have shown up in the clinical trials, and the numbers of people who have had blood clots after having taken the vaccine are no greater than one would normally expect in a sample of this size.

I had a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) whilst on holiday in France two years ago.

There is no more evidence that going to France caused my DVT than there is that the Astra Zeneca vaccine caused the DVTs for those patients who had one after being vaccinated. No doubt President Macron would be most put out if the UK government advised against travel to France just in case you have a DVT whilst on holdiay there.

 

[Domh245]

Hmmm. So countries pausing AZ vaccine is snowballing to be quite a lot of western Europe's countries.

The media coverage is very clear, they are over cautious and the percentage of events is no different to what you would normally expect in a population. Leads into several questions, Is the British media coverage defending AZ at all costs as a British vaccine? Will this reduce uptake and massively damage vaccine confidence globally?

Whilst the events are no different to what you'd expect in a normal population, the fact that multiple similar incidents all occurred following vaccination with it is rightfully something that should prompt an investigation, and (especially in Norway/Denmark where cases are 'manageable' there is no significant harm to the population as a whole in pausing). My gut feeling is that if this does turn out to be something, it's more likely down to a specific batch than the vaccine itself (as evidenced by the fact that there have been no similar incidents in the UK, where it is almost entirely being produced domestically and use is granted on a batch by batch basis)

That said, I think there is more to this all than meets the eye. There is a lot of British media defending "our vaccine", and sadly I do think this is going to cause a big hit to confidence - we can even see this with the AZ vaccine which has not recovered in the public's eye from the debacle earlier in the year around it's effectiveness. With my tinfoil hat on, the fact that it is being sold at cost (and costing the big american pharma companies profit on their vaccines) might have something to do with the sheer volume of negative press that AZ have received.

Well apparently Germany and France are still moving forward with a lot of AZ vaccine despite their initial over 65 issues, and the European Health Agency says the AZ vaccine is safe. So there must be politics in this somewhere, but against whom, UK, EU in Brussels I have no idea.

Germany announced they'd be halting it this afternoon, along with France (and now Italy since I last checked!)

COVID-19: Germany, France, Italy and Spain pause Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine amid blood clot concerns

The countries say it's a "precaution" but the World Health Organisation insists there's no evidence the vaccine caused the clots.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Germany, France and Italy suspending Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine amid blood clot concerns​

Germany, France and Italy are suspending use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine in order for reports of blood clots to be investigated.

The German health ministry and the Italian medicines authority said the measure was a "precaution" as the European Medicines Agency (EMA) looks into the matter.


French president Emmanuel Macron was also of the same view and added the EU medicine regulator was expected to give guidance on Tuesday afternoon.

They are the latest European countries to halt administering the jab amid concerns over possible links to the clots.

 

[Ediswan]

Meanwhile, I went for the first dose of the AZ vaccine just after lunch today.

 

[HSTEd]

The cold blooded truth is that the casualties that have shown up are negligible.

They are entirely acceptable losses, and I think a lot of EU regulators are still in a peacetime mentality where they can just hold things up for weeks without it causing any damage.

At the rates they are showing up we will have a couple hundred incidents in return for total vaccination of the adult population.
Even if they all died, its a couple hundred dead for the end of this crisis - it's ultimately a bargain.

 

[duncanp]

The cold blooded truth is that the casualties that have shown up are negligible.

They are entirely acceptable losses, and I think a lot of EU regulators are still in a peacetime mentality where they can just hold things up for weeks without it causing any damage.

At the rates they are showing up we will have a couple hundred incidents in return for total vaccination of the adult population.
Even if they all died, its a couple hundred dead for the end of this crisis - it's ultimately a bargain.

You also have to compare the number of people who die after being vaccinated (note not AS A RESULT of being vaccinated) with the number of people who die if there is a new wave of cases as a result of a delay to the vaccination program.

The longer the "pause" to the vaccination program, the greater the risk of cases starting to increase again, unless, that is, you impose stricter lockdown measures.

 

[Ediswan]

For those who have not seen it, Penn and Teller on the subject of vaccines:

(only 90 seconds, but some bad language).

 

[HSTEd]

You also have to compare the number of people who die after being vaccinated (note not AS A RESULT of being vaccinated) with the number of people who die if there is a new wave of cases as a result of a delay to the vaccination program.

The longer the "pause" to the vaccination program, the greater the risk of cases starting to increase again, unless, that is, you impose stricter lockdown measures.

And the lockdown kills people every single day it continues.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Macron says wait until the European Medicine agency gives it the green light... They've already said there is no evidence to stop vaccinations.

 

[Domh245]

The cold blooded truth is that the casualties that have shown up are negligible.

They are entirely acceptable losses, and I think a lot of EU regulators are still in a peacetime mentality where they can just hold things up for weeks without it causing any damage.

At the rates they are showing up we will have a couple hundred incidents in return for total vaccination of the adult population.
Even if they all died, its a couple hundred dead for the end of this crisis - it's ultimately a bargain.

That's where it gets ethically messy though. This is a vaccine not a medicine, so it shouldn't have 'acceptable losses' as you might expect from most other drugs, particularly amongst the healthy population. Transient side effects from the vaccine injection and the immune response are OK, but severe and potentially fatal effects like these clots aren't. As you note, in the grand scheme of things, it's potentially a couple hundred of dead in return for the (effective) end of the pandemic, but no medicines regulator can in good faith allow something that could cause individual harm despite societal benefit, particularly when caveated with the facts that alternative vaccines are available that don't seem to have this effect, and (less relevantly in most cases) covid is "under control" in a country. The obvious counter to this is that governments have been quite happily imposing unethical restrictions on entire populations (though quantifying the harmfulness of these is difficult, at least in a timely and comparable fashion) but that's hardly justification for medicine regulators to also start disregarding medical ethics principles (as that's a particularly slippery slope)

 

[Darandio]

We have countries around the world where people have near enough been sat on their arse for a year by being told to stay at home, why would an increase in cases involving blood clots be suddenly a surprise?

This summer, vaccine halted as cases of skin cancer rise........

 

[yorksrob]

That's where it gets ethically messy though. This is a vaccine not a medicine, so it shouldn't have 'acceptable losses' as you might expect from most other drugs, particularly amongst the healthy population. Transient side effects from the vaccine injection and the immune response are OK, but severe and potentially fatal effects like these clots aren't. As you note, in the grand scheme of things, it's potentially a couple hundred of dead in return for the (effective) end of the pandemic, but no medicines regulator can in good faith allow something that could cause individual harm despite societal benefit, particularly when caveated with the facts that alternative vaccines are available that don't seem to have this effect, and (less relevantly in most cases) covid is "under control" in a country. The obvious counter to this is that governments have been quite happily imposing unethical restrictions on entire populations (though quantifying the harmfulness of these is difficult, at least in a timely and comparable fashion) but that's hardly justification for medicine regulators to also start disregarding medical ethics principles (as that's a particularly slippery slope)

Given the numbers involved, I'd rather crack on with vaccinations while investigations are made, than be subjected to further arbitrary and unjustified lockdown.

 

[YorkshireBear]

That's where it gets ethically messy though. This is a vaccine not a medicine, so it shouldn't have 'acceptable losses' as you might expect from most other drugs, particularly amongst the healthy population. Transient side effects from the vaccine injection and the immune response are OK, but severe and potentially fatal effects like these clots aren't. As you note, in the grand scheme of things, it's potentially a couple hundred of dead in return for the (effective) end of the pandemic, but no medicines regulator can in good faith allow something that could cause individual harm despite societal benefit, particularly when caveated with the facts that alternative vaccines are available that don't seem to have this effect, and (less relevantly in most cases) covid is "under control" in a country. The obvious counter to this is that governments have been quite happily imposing unethical restrictions on entire populations (though quantifying the harmfulness of these is difficult, at least in a timely and comparable fashion) but that's hardly justification for medicine regulators to also start disregarding medical ethics principles (as that's a particularly slippery slope)

Absolutely. But until we know it to be the case being overly cautious surely may cost more lives. I agree if we find out the AZ causes clotting then we stop as over vaccines don't so why risk killing healthy people.

At the same time clotting due to inactivity is a real possibility.

 

[packermac]

There seems to be a worrying deja vu occurring

Italy in lockdown as per last year at this time. Paris-Nice cycle race not allowed to finish in Nice due to Covid rates. German ICU doctors calling for another lockdown.

Yet most of Europe turning down a vaccine.
Go figure

 

[Domh245]

Given the numbers involved, I'd rather crack on with vaccinations while investigations are made, than be subjected to further arbitrary and unjustified lockdown.

Oh definitely, and thankfully in the UK we are. In the EU (+Norway and whatever other countries are supplied by AZ's EU plants - most of whom aren't under lockdown as far as I know) though, I can certainly sympathise with that particular batch or even all batches from that plant being shelved whilst they investigate. The wholesale stopping of it is an overreaction though, I agree.

Absolutely. But until we know it to be the case being overly cautious surely may cost more lives. I agree if we find out the AZ causes clotting then we stop as over vaccines don't so why risk killing healthy people.

At the same time clotting due to inactivity is a real possibility.

Like I said, it's ethically very messy. The medicine regulator's role (amongst others) is to monitor things like these and act on concerns that an authorised product may be harmful. Assessing the societal utility of such a move isn't part of their remit - that's down to governments and whilst they could override their regulators that is a particularly poor look. The regulator could say "keep on going whilst we investigate" but then if they do find out that the observed effects are related, then there's a whole can of worms opened around giving people treatments suspected to be harmful, so they're naturally going to default to being more cautious

It essentially boils down to a (perceived) decreasing appetite for risk (seen almost universally across industries) and the current setup of regulators with strictly defined roles and Governments stuck in catch 22 situations of overriding them (eroding public trust but net benefitting by ending the pandemic sooner) or not

Re clotting due to inactivity, speaking to my Norwegian friend about these a couple of nights ago, I was under the impression that the people suffering these clots were health workers - unlikely to have been inactive for the past year, though not impossible