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Virgin Group explores the return of Virgin Trains as an Open Access operator

Clarence Yard

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How does the ORR handle multiple operators applying for the same path?

It considers them all at the same time and applies its criteria. The same as they have been doing since 1999 when WAGN, LNER and what became Hull Trains were looking at the same paths.
 
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Energy

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The Virgin proposal looks too far the other way i.e. profitable but too abstractive.
Abstraction is a concern, particularly as their aspiration in the BBC news article is to undercut Avanti.
It considers them all at the same time and applies its criteria. The same as they have been doing since 1999 when WAGN, LNER and what became Hull Trains were looking at the same paths.
So whoever is least abstractive and makes best use of the paths?
 

The Middle

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Is there a reason why their seems to been a flury of open access west coast proposals recently?
Yes, see this letter from the ORR. Expect to see an awful lot of track access applications published tomorrow


Dear colleague, 24 April 2024 Competing and/or complex track access applications for December 2024, May 2025 and December 2025 timetable changes
1. ORR and Network Rail expect, and have received, a higher-than-usual number of access applications from freight and passenger operators for additional or amended services for the December 2024, May 2025 and December 2025 timetable changes. Some services in the applications interact with each other, or have the potential to, at different points across the GB railway network. This letter sets out how we plan to make our decisions on these applications. It follows our existing published guidance, which ensures capacity applications are sufficiently in advance of timetable implementation.

2. Previously, we have issued similar statements requiring careful management (notably on the East Coast Main Line and West Coast Main Line) to support our statutory duties in determining applications with competing aspirations or significant complexity. Equally, this statement clarifies expectations for Network Rail in its duty as the infrastructure manager to coordinate the allocation of capacity. We consider the following approach supports ORR in ensuring capacity allocation decisions are fair, transparent and timely, while providing structure to industry for planning. This should provide the best possible chance of success in implementing proposed improvements to services for the benefit of customers over this period. We welcome conversations with industry to explain this, where desired. December 2024 Timetable Production status

3. Industry has worked intensively over the last few years to plan the introduction of major timetable changes in December 2024. These changes are some of the most complex in terms of Network Rail and operator planning since May 2018. Network Rail is still working to produce the December 2024 timetable. We understand the timetable will not include most of the East Coast Mainline (ECML) Event Steering Group (ESG) changes. Further work is ongoing to deconflict existing access rights and timetable bids before a decision is taken in 2024 on implementing a version of the ESG timetable during 2025.

4. Given it has not been possible to accommodate existing access rights and satisfy the timetable bids made for December 2024, we consider that the definition of Congested Infrastructure in the Access and Management Regulations (2016) appears to have been met for at least parts of the ECML. Network Rail must now comply with the requirements in the Regulations or explain why it considers the criteria are not met by 05 June 2024.

5. Network Rail has said that it will follow future Part D milestones for delivery of the December 2024 timetable, but we recognise decisions in the timetable production process could materially influence operator and funder plans for December 2024 and beyond. We are monitoring industry and Network Rail compliance with the Code. Implication for applications December 2024 to December 2025

6. A material factor in determining the approval or direction of applications received is the basis on which ORR understands the December 2024 working timetable will be implemented, and the decision on implementing a future ECML ESG timetable. This is because, (a) Existing ECML applications will have used the ECML ESG solution as the base timetable; (b) Even where applications are not on the ECML, decisions on the ECML could interact with them; and (c) Capacity and performance analysis using ECML ESG assumptions need to be reworked (along with timings) for the actual December 2024 timetable and for future timetables (including when the ESG timetable outcome is known). Process for access rights for December 2024, May and December 2025 Establishing demand for capacity

7. It is currently unclear to what extent there will be capacity to accommodate all the current applications and any further applications received for specific locations in upcoming timetables. Similarly, it is not clear what the performance implications might be; and, where there are trade-offs, what those choices would entail.

8. To facilitate a timely and fair assessment, ORR has agreed with Network Rail to request industry complies with a deadline of 20 May 2024 for applications for additional rights (or amended rights which change capacity parameters) for December 2024, May and December 2025 according to the following criteria.

9. Does an application require capacity in any of the following locations? (a) West Coast Main Line Euston-Nuneaton; (b) Birmingham area including Water Orton; (c) Birmingham-Derby; (d) Derby-Sheffield; (e) Sheffield area; (f) ECML Kings Cross-Edinburgh and Leeds; (g) Oxford; (h) Gloucester; or (i) Cardiff.

10. This list is based on Network Rail’s assessment of where existing applications or aspirations interact. As capacity analysis work progresses, it is possible further locations could be identified.

11. Has an application already been submitted to ORR (see annex A), before the date of this letter, which does not require updates? If so, it will be considered alongside applications received between now and 20 May 2024, i.e. there is no need to resubmit it.

12. All further applications in the identified locations should be submitted to ORR as soon as possible or by 20 May. This includes proposed applications where an industry consultation is underway, as the outputs from the consultation can follow the application deadline. Where operators are discussing further aspirations or plans with Network Rail in the locations for the timetable periods specified, but an application has not been submitted to ORR it is important that a submission is made to ORR.

13. We recognise it may not be possible for Network Rail to support an application by this date. However, we expect operators to have discussed the application with Network Rail before submission. Submission by 20 May will ensure transparency and could initiate a statutory process and timeframe which ORR and Network Rail must follow.

14. Passenger and freight operators may want to extend the duration of their existing rights in the geographical locations identified. Our guidance sets out a strong presumption in favour of the extension of current access rights, except where we have stated otherwise. Reflecting this, the 20 May deadline in this letter will not apply to the extension of existing rights in line with our guidance (except where ORR has advised that the presumption of existing rights does not apply).

15. For the avoidance of doubt, we are not requesting submission by 20 May of applications unrelated to the specified locations or to the identified timetable changes set out in this letter. Reaching timely decisions

16. It is vital that Network Rail provides a prompt and robust assessment of the applications and the available options for accommodating them. Network Rail will need to provide an appraisal of capacity and the potential impact on performance that would result from the proposed additional services contained in the applications received. The deadline for applications should support Network Rail in producing a plan, as well as its response to ORR on Congested Infrastructure, promptly.

17. ORR will prioritise assessment of applications received by 20 May. The applications received by this date provide a quantum baseline of demand for capacity use, which Network Rail must assess and assure itself and industry can be accommodated.

18. ORR plans to approve or direct access applications received after 20 May in the identified locations for December 2024, May and December 2025 only where there is clear evidence they do not interact/conflict with the applications which have already been received. It is therefore less likely that we will be able to assess and determine applications for additional capacity in the identified locations received after 20 May, for inclusion in timetables before the end of 2025.

19. In making decisions on the use of capacity, we must consider all our statutory duties and weigh them where they do not all point in the same direction. Our duties are varied and include protecting the interests of users of railway services, promoting use of the network, competition, improvements in rail service performance and efficiency and having regard to the funds available to the Secretary of State and his, and the Scottish Minister’s, guidance to us.

20. Where proposed services may compete with existing services, we may undertake our ‘Not Primarily Abstractive’ test, in line with our guidance. If it appears that not all proposals can be accommodated, we will also assess the wider costs and benefits of the possible capacity uses to inform our decisions.

Application requirements

21. We expect applications received by 20 May 2024 to be of sufficient quality, completeness, and certainty to enable Network Rail, industry and ORR to assess them. A prerequisite for achieving this is that applicants will have discussed their plans with, and sourced information from Network Rail before submission (in line with our guidance). This will ensure the application is ready for consultation where it has not taken place already, and the evidence requirements are met as set out in the Form P or Form F, including, where relevant, submission to ORR of business cases and demand forecasting.

22. It is useful for funders and industry to understand that ORR assesses whether train operators have sufficient commitment and capability to operate services. We consider each application on a case-by-case basis against this requirement; having a firm budget commitment from a funder is a good indication of commitment but may not be necessarily sufficient.
 
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miami

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Maybe because its the busiest mainline in the UK?

In which case the question would by why weren't there any last year, or in 2018.

Since covid the Manchester-Euston-via-stoke services have dropped from 2tph to 1tph, 50% drop. Not clear to me why it hasn't been reestablished if it's so busy. I assume that's where the spare path has come from, but it does look like there's been several announcements in the last few weeks
 

Boodiggy

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In which case the question would by why weren't there any last year, or in 2018.

Since covid the Manchester-Euston-via-stoke services have dropped from 2tph to 1tph, 50% drop. Not clear to me why it hasn't been reestablished if it's so busy. I assume that's where the spare path has come from, but it does look like there's been several announcements in the last few weeks
Euston - Manc via Stoke is back to 2tph. xx:13 and xx:53 off Euston and xx:15 and xx:35 off Piccadilly.

The third service via Crewe runs so in total its back to 3tph
 

Clarence Yard

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Abstraction is a concern, particularly as their aspiration in the BBC news article is to undercut Avanti.

So whoever is least abstractive and makes best use of the paths?

Abstraction is only one thing that the ORR looks at when it judges OA applications.
 

Snow1964

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There was also this Network Rail letter earlier in 2024. It basically accepts there were unused paths in covid and afterwards, but there is now increased demand and if operators aren't going to timetable trains going forward then paths will be taken back

https://sacuksprodnrdigital0001.blob.core.windows.net/sale-of-access-rights/Sale%20of%20Access%20Rights/19.02.24%20Unused%20access%20rights%20-%20Network%20Rail's%20ongoing%20approach.pdf

It is also worth noting that a Capacity Allocation Process document was issued last month (April 2024)


This second document has links at end for more info, timeframes, applications etc
 

Clarence Yard

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The SOAR process can be regarded by applicants as an internal NR process which can be over-bureaucratic. The Regs do not preclude an applicant sticking in an application directly to the ORR, which is obliged to consider it on an equal basis as one that has gone through the SOAR process.

The unused rights that can be clawed back through the “use it or lose it” provisions in Part J don’t seem to include passenger rights that the DfT always state will be taken up in future, so they are not clawed back. Freight is where these clauses has mainly been used.

Where Part J really comes into its own is when it comes to the “better use” provisions in 10.2. On a constrained network, this is something NR could use but, up to now, hasn’t gone near because it costs them compensation.
 

RealTrains07

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Now virgin are also going for the same service lumo wants. It will be interesting which the ORR goes with as if you go with first the argument could be made it will reduce competition?
 

The Planner

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The SOAR process can be regarded by applicants as an internal NR process which can be over-bureaucratic. The Regs do not preclude an applicant sticking in an application directly to the ORR, which is obliged to consider it on an equal basis as one that has gone through the SOAR process.

The unused rights that can be clawed back through the “use it or lose it” provisions in Part J don’t seem to include passenger rights that the DfT always state will be taken up in future, so they are not clawed back. Freight is where these clauses has mainly been used.

Where Part J really comes into its own is when it comes to the “better use” provisions in 10.2. On a constrained network, this is something NR could use but, up to now, hasn’t gone near because it costs them compensation.
Lets be honest, thats what people are eyeing up to solve the ECML situation.

Are XC running their 30 trains daily between Birmingham and Manchester, (see page 25) or do they have unused slots too

Yes
 

jagardner1984

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What is interesting to me as a semi frequent traveller from Glasgow beyond any perceived or actual problems with Avanti is that often the cheapest routes (albeit with a small time penalty) are via the ECML - either more attractive Advances on LNER or indeed Lumo.

Whether that is down to Avanti’s pricing from Glasgow, or the competition on the ECML, or the capacity issues on the WCML, it does seem to be if it is not possible to regulate fares properly (logically, you’d imagine fares should drive to the most direct flow from A to B, rather than away from them), then there is some opportunity for Open Access to offer other options on the WCML. I’m not sure whether even more ticketing confusion and listening to even Avanti train manager barking “if your ticket is marked Virgin Trains ….” Ad Infinitum prior to every departure is the best outcome for passengers, but here we are.
 

The Prisoner

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What is interesting to me as a semi frequent traveller from Glasgow beyond any perceived or actual problems with Avanti is that often the cheapest routes (albeit with a small time penalty) are via the ECML - either more attractive Advances on LNER or indeed Lumo.

Whether that is down to Avanti’s pricing from Glasgow, or the competition on the ECML, or the capacity issues on the WCML, it does seem to be if it is not possible to regulate fares properly (logically, you’d imagine fares should drive to the most direct flow from A to B, rather than away from them), then there is some opportunity for Open Access to offer other options on the WCML. I’m not sure whether even more ticketing confusion and listening to even Avanti train manager barking “if your ticket is marked Virgin Trains ….” Ad Infinitum prior to every departure is the best outcome for passengers, but here we are.
"Cheap" advances disappeared with Virgin. Especially in first class.
 

jagardner1984

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"Cheap" advances disappeared with Virgin. Especially in first class.
Whoever makes any progress with additional WCML services, it will be interesting if they see more opportunity in the Lumo-esque squeezing the Ryanair market or in the full service model. Feels like both ends are rather neglected by Avanti.
 

Sorcerer

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Whoever makes any progress with additional WCML services, it will be interesting if they see more opportunity in the Lumo-esque squeezing the Ryanair market or in the full service model. Feels like both ends are rather neglected by Avanti.
Personally I don't imagine a company like Virgin going for a Lumo style approach of low-cost single-class service since their brand image has historically always had a bit more pizazz than Lumo's simplicity. I expect they'd go for a more premium style service like when they ran the InterCity West Coast contract, though it will definitely be structured differently since Virgin will probably only be in it for the branding and PR than running actual day-to-day operations.
 

takno

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Personally I don't imagine a company like Virgin going for a Lumo style approach of low-cost single-class service since their brand image has historically always had a bit more pizazz than Lumo's simplicity. I expect they'd go for a more premium style service like when they ran the InterCity West Coast contract, though it will definitely be structured differently since Virgin will probably only be in it for the branding and PR than running actual day-to-day operations.
Pizzazz? I remember some grotty new trains and a gobby sod with a beard. There were also some annoying talking toilets. I'd agree that Avanti haven't been spectacular as an operator, but I'd regard Lumo's service as a step up from Virgin
 

Sorcerer

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Pizzazz? I remember some grotty new trains and a gobby sod with a beard. There were also some annoying talking toilets. I'd agree that Avanti haven't been spectacular as an operator, but I'd regard Lumo's service as a step up from Virgin
Regardless of whatever service we all got, Virgin is still not the kind of brand to associate itself with Lumo style service of cheap, single-class journeys and prefer to present themselves with a more dazzling and exciting image. Annoying as they might've been, the talking toilets was one of their quirks that most other companies wouldn't have bothered spending time and money on. I'd also hardly call their trains grotty, especially for the rolling stock they replaced, but I digress.
 

Howardh

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Local news that Virgin are planning to introduce a direct Bolton - London service. Not sure how it will squeeze through "the corridor" but could trains that use the Ordsall Curve be cut back to allow such a service? Otherwise there's the possibility of Bolton - Wigan (reverse) - London, although I can't see how that would be profitable by missing out Piccadilly?


Virgin has submitted an application to the Office of Rail and Road to run trains under an ‘open access’ agreement with a proposed start date of December 2025 – though the company stressed that timings are subject to change.

However, there are some concerns over whether the route has enough capacity.

Railway engineer Gareth Dennis said: “Every additional long distance service means at least one if not several fewer local services.

“What local services cannot go ahead - or potentially are being lost that otherwise run today – to enable these services?

“That's the question everyoen should be asking.”

The Department for Transport confirmed to The Bolton News last month that the corridor was limited to 12 trains per hour, going up to 13 trains per hour at peak times – saying that running any more would ‘adversely affect performance’ on the network.

Currently, the Castlefield corridor, which runs through Deansgate, Manchester Oxford Road, and Manchester Piccadilly, is considered a bottleneck for services across the region.
 

The Planner

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Regardless of whatever service we all got, Virgin is still not the kind of brand to associate itself with Lumo style service of cheap, single-class journeys and prefer to present themselves with a more dazzling and exciting image. Annoying as they might've been, the talking toilets was one of their quirks that most other companies wouldn't have bothered spending time and money on. I'd also hardly call their trains grotty, especially for the rolling stock they replaced, but I digress.
Lets all face facts here, it will be the 221s like everyone else is expecting to use.
 

Sorcerer

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Lets all face facts here, it will be the 221s like everyone else is expecting to use.
While not the worst trains in the world, I would've definitely preferred newer and more appropriate stock. If a fair few of the 221s going off-lease from Avanti will be going to CrossCountry, I question if there will be enough left over for Virgin to run their desired service or if they'll have to cut back. As it happens right now their plans seem unrealistic.
 

Iskra

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Maybe someone is noting the growth in train usage in the likes of Italy where Italo's competition with Trenitalia has led to additional users. Same also applies with Lumo and the ECML?

Labour have green lighted OA continuing.

Can only be a good thing if we have decent operators....
Yeah, but that’s also down to a monumental load of investment in high speed rail, not always in accordance with economics or the state of Italian finances.

It's been so since forever though, and OA ideas have only came in the last year
Grand Central were approved and preparing to launch Blackpool services in 2020…
 

Trackman

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Local news that Virgin are planning to introduce a direct Bolton - London service. Not sure how it will squeeze through "the corridor" but could trains that use the Ordsall Curve be cut back to allow such a service? Otherwise there's the possibility of Bolton - Wigan (reverse) - London, although I can't see how that would be profitable by missing out Piccadilly?
Been mooted for years a Bolton>London direct service.
Talking toilets mentioned as returning!
No doubt hot air Balloon rides too :)
 

The Prisoner

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While not the worst trains in the world, I would've definitely preferred newer and more appropriate stock. If a fair few of the 221s going off-lease from Avanti will be going to CrossCountry, I question if there will be enough left over for Virgin to run their desired service or if they'll have to cut back. As it happens right now their plans seem unrealistic.

Doubt it will be 221s. Enough time to get something ordered and built. These apps always have a hugely optimistic starting date that ends up getting bumped when the rolling stock isn't available. Probably something Alstom-y which might be seen as a Derby boost (despite the fact that they won't be on production lines for years).....hello Virgin Avelia services? https://www.alstom.com/solutions/rolling-stock/avelia-high-speed-trains-best-way-travel-fast
 

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