Virgin Group explores the return of Virgin Trains as an Open Access operator

[Sorcerer]

Doubt it will be 221s. Enough time to get something ordered and built. These apps always have a hugely optimistic starting date that ends up getting bumped when the rolling stock isn't available. Probably something Alstom-y which might be seen as a Derby boost (despite the fact that they won't be on production lines for years).....hello Virgin Avelia services? https://www.alstom.com/solutions/rolling-stock/avelia-high-speed-trains-best-way-travel-fast

I would like to imagine Virgin using New Pendolino stock similar to Italo's Evo units. But that said I don't know if a train manufacturer would actually want to sign a contract without the applications being approved first. If it is an Avelia though I don't think it'll be at Derby since, as far as I know, that plant is for the Hitachi side of HS2 stock and not ran by Alstom. Never say never though I suppose.

 

[The Planner]

Doubt it will be 221s. Enough time to get something ordered and built. These apps always have a hugely optimistic starting date that ends up getting bumped when the rolling stock isn't available. Probably something Alstom-y which might be seen as a Derby boost (despite the fact that they won't be on production lines for years).....hello Virgin Avelia services? https://www.alstom.com/solutions/rolling-stock/avelia-high-speed-trains-best-way-travel-fast

It will be 221s they are assuming.

 

[Snow1964]

Yes, see this letter from the ORR. Expect to see an awful lot of track access applications published tomorrow

Doesn't appear that ORR have published any of these applications

Current track access applications | Office of Rail and Road

All documents relating to track access applications we are currently considering. This may include application forms, draft agreements, any related documents and responses we make public.

www.orr.gov.uk

So either the applications are a fantasy, or ORR doesn't consider that publishing them in timely manner is important.

 

[30907]

Maybe someone is noting the growth in train usage in the likes of Italy where Italo's competition with Trenitalia has led to additional users.

Italo and TI go head-to-head on all the high-speed routes, taking advantage of plentiful capacity, and mimic each other commercially - a rather different model to our (or Germany's) OA.

 

[The Planner]

Doesn't appear that ORR have published any of these applications

Current track access applications | Office of Rail and Road

All documents relating to track access applications we are currently considering. This may include application forms, draft agreements, any related documents and responses we make public.

www.orr.gov.uk

So either the applications are a fantasy, or ORR doesn't consider that publishing them in timely manner is important.

They are real.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

They are real.

ORR has confirmed they have as well

Here:

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/24331570.virgin-plans-direct-bolton-london-train-end-2025/

An Office of Rail and Road spokesperson said: “We have received Virgin's application.”

 

[Chester1]

It will be 221s they are assuming.

That is the eight units Cross Country are not having? That would mean all services being only five coaches and infrequent. Sounds about right....

 

[Toby268]

That is the eight units Cross Country are not having? That would mean all services being only five coaches and infrequent. Sounds about right....

Surely a few of those 8 are earmarked for the grand union operation… so unless they, or grand union, await 222s being available there’s not enough to go around. Especially not to run 10 car formations in virgins case.

 

[The Planner]

Surely a few of those 8 are earmarked for the grand union operation… so unless they, or grand union, await 222s being available there’s not enough to go around. Especially not to run 10 car formations in virgins case.

I don't think anything is earmarked, they just all are expecting to use the same stock.

 

[AndrewE]

Armitt (I think it was) was on R4 this morning explaining that it's an ORCATS raid - and the taxpayer will bear the cost: They might make £9m from fares, but stand to get £22m from the other operators... who are publicly-funded, so it's a transfer of money from us to the Virgin empire.

Which fits in exactly with Beardie's usual group behaviour: so many inter-company loans and smoke and mirrors that it has been impossible to work out which bits really made the profit - if any.

 

[renegademaster]

How much does it cost companies to file the applications? If it is only a small amount companies might as well just keep chucking ideas at ORR till they find something that they approve

 

[Speed43125]

Armitt (I think it was) was on R4 this morning explaining that it's an ORCATS raid - and the taxpayer will bear the cost: They might make £9m from fares, but stand to get £22m from the other operators... who are publicly-funded, so it's a transfer of money from us to the Virgin empire.

Which fits in exactly with Beardie's usual group behaviour: so many inter-company loans and smoke and mirrors that it has been impossible to work out which bits really made the profit - if any.

Oh here we go.... First Group, or arriva or Mr. Yeowart can propose all the Open Access they like. The moment Branson's name is stuck on anything you get people coming out of the woodwork telling us how evil he must be and how we're all going to get fleeced because his company is involved.

 

[takno]

Oh here we go.... First Group, or arriva or Mr. Yeowart can propose all the Open Access they like. The moment Branson's name is stuck on anything you get people coming out of the woodwork telling us how evil he must be and how we're all going to get fleeced because his company is involved.

I think that's a fairly natural reaction to all the other people who come out of the woodwork to tell us all about how Virgin were the best and loveliest operator on the network ever since the dawn of steam. Virgin's main brand proposition is to sell themselves as somehow plucky outsiders offering a spot of luxury to the masses at affordable prices. There's going to be something of a backlash when the products are often pretty low-tier and the prices non-competitive.

I traveled plenty on all three Virgin franchises, and I know fine well how profoundly unexciting they all were. At times they were fairly well-run as well as being gimmicky, but there wasn't a great deal of consistency about that. There's plenty of signs on the west coast for example is that they were running things into the ground a bit, not getting on top of a growing issues in their later years which then exploded on Avanti.

FWIW I also find the First Group and Grand Central OA operations pretty unexciting, but they are for the most part quietly useful, having been planned to fill a genuine hole in service provision. OA is a good concept where it uses free space to either grow markets which are currently lost to car and air or promote economic development in underserved regions. Virgin just seem to be proposing to use non-existent paths to compete directly with the operator who tossed them out.

 

[Philip]

If one of the Blackpool-Man Airport services was re-routed into Manchester Victoria to free up a path, and if the proposed Virgin service called at Oxford Road rather than Piccadilly 13/14, could it work?

Perhaps if both of the Blackpool-Manchester trains need to run via Piccadilly then the Southport to Oxford Road could divert to Victoria instead?

 

[RailWonderer]

Armitt (I think it was) was on R4 this morning explaining that it's an ORCATS raid - and the taxpayer will bear the cost: They might make £9m from fares, but stand to get £22m from the other operators... who are publicly-funded, so it's a transfer of money from us to the Virgin empire.

Which fits in exactly with Beardie's usual group behaviour: so many inter-company loans and smoke and mirrors that it has been impossible to work out which bits really made the profit - if any.

Allowing OA only on the condition they are not fare abstractive is a fair practice...in theory. Lumo I doubt is a part of LNER (DfT) hiking their prices up massively - they would have done it anyway . Even the Hull Trains revenue will come from Grantham and Doncaster tickets as much as Hull - London so will be astractive in part.

In any case I'd like to see Virgin return to the mainline just for their branding which looks far ahead of almost any UK operators at the moment. They were always coming up with ideas to shake things up, even little things so seeing some quirks again (even if it is just talking toilets) would be welcomed.

 

[Class83]

The idea of an actual intercity operator, whether Avanti, XC or an OAA such as Virgin operating directly between Birmingham and Liverpool is interesting. Although the route is operated by a franchised TOC (LNW/WM), it's essentially an extended commuter service at the moment. Introducing limited stop service with catering on this route would be a genuine improvement to the service offered to travellers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The idea of an actual intercity operator, whether Avanti, XC or an OAA such as Virgin operating directly between Birmingham and Liverpool is interesting. Although the route is operated by a franchised TOC (LNW/WM), it's essentially an extended commuter service at the moment. Introducing limited stop service with catering on this route would be a genuine improvement to the service offered to travellers.

For what is a relatively short journey, people will likely choose based on price and frequency, and not on whether they can get a cup of tea when they've probably bought one at Lime St if they wanted one anyway.

 

[1D54]

Or of course New Street if going in the other direction.

 

[Class83]

For what is a relatively short journey, people will likely choose based on price and frequency, and not on whether they can get a cup of tea when they've probably bought one at Lime St if they wanted one anyway.

Scheduled journey times are around 1h45mins, so a fairly similar duration to Norwich to London or Crewe to London which feature catering. Of course a limited stop service might reduce the time slightly

 

[The Planner]

Scheduled journey times are around 1h45mins, so a fairly similar duration to Norwich to London or Crewe to London which feature catering. Of course a limited stop service might reduce the time slightly

If you assume stops at Wolves, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn and Liverpool, the quickest you are going to get is around 88-90 minute mark.

 

[AndrewE]

If you assume stops at Wolves, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn and Liverpool, the quickest you are going to get is around 88-90 minute mark.

but still enough to easily beat road hands down.

These are exactly the sort of semi-fast/"inter-City" services which are needed across the country in addition to a good service of stopping trains, and would be the norm in the London travel-to-work area. Brand them "Regional expresses?"

The current twice-an-hour 4-cars have been pretty full every time I have been on them, so we need extra rolling stock pdq if the railway is going to be able to accommodate the people who are being attracted by just the current quite good timetable. There is no question that even if, as now, a train is quite quick compared to road (and with no city parking charges) a journey as described by the Planner feels a lot higher quality than one which calls at every gatepost including Acton Bridge, and is likely to attract even more custom! I would still put in an extra stop at Liverpool Sth Parkway though.

One can but hope! (I'm ever the optimist...)

 

[Bletchleyite]

The current twice-an-hour 4-cars have been pretty full every time I have been on them, so we need extra rolling stock pdq if the railway is going to be able to accommodate the people who are being attracted by just the current quite good timetable.

The intention is for these to be worked by 5x24m 730/2s when they are all delivered. That will give roughly two Class 350 coaches more capacity per train which is about what is needed.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Armitt (I think it was) was on R4 this morning explaining that it's an ORCATS raid - and the taxpayer will bear the cost: They might make £9m from fares, but stand to get £22m from the other operators... who are publicly-funded, so it's a transfer of money from us to the Virgin empire.

If he mentioned the words ORCATS raid, then he doesn’t know what he is talking about. It won’t be an ORCATS raid - that is so last century.

ORCATS raiding is when you timetable your trains in front of a competitor so you gain their revenue from IA (Inter Available) tickets through the ORCATS algorithms allocating you a bigger % of the relevant flow revenue through Lennon, irrespective of whether you carry the passengers or not.

With the vast majority of journeys now AP, on the major main lines you bypass the % allocation process as 100% of the AP revenue always goes to you. It leaves now a very small % of IA left for anyone to try and ORCATS raid, certainly not what you would base any business plan on.

What I suspect is really being talked about here is competitive abstraction from the public purse through a competitor taking revenue off a state run incumbent via ordinary (and legal) competitive behaviour.

Allowing OA only on the condition they are not fare abstractive is a fair practice...in theory. Lumo I doubt is a part of LNER (DfT) hiking their prices up massively - they would have done it anyway . Even the Hull Trains revenue will come from Grantham and Doncaster tickets as much as Hull - London so will be astractive in part.

No, HT only get a small % of total Grantham and Doncaster revenue. The revenue for HT from these stations is very much outweighed by that from the East Yorkshire stations, the take from Hull and Brough alone being in excess of those two.

Abstraction is where you take out and not put anything back in. But if you put back so that the incumbent is not financially disadvantaged in the medium to long term, then there is no net abstraction. A good and clear example of this is Hull Trains. Other OA operations, arguably less so.

 

[The Ham]

If you assume stops at Wolves, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn and Liverpool, the quickest you are going to get is around 88-90 minute mark.

So three trains an hour of between 90 and 105 minutes, that's going to make rail travel more attractive than just 2tph (even if it was also between 90 and 105 minutes, but given that it's all 105 minutes that's still better).

Even with all three being within 31 minutes of each other it's still an improvement.

One other area where it could be better (and certainly not something that would build a business case but something which helps attract passengers to the railways), is that the OAO wouldn't be subject to the same pay disputes as those overseen by the government, so on strike days people could more easily get around than currently.

 

[The Planner]

So three trains an hour of between 90 and 105 minutes, that's going to make rail travel more attractive than just 2tph (even if it was also between 90 and 105 minutes, but given that it's all 105 minutes that's still better).

Even with all three being within 31 minutes of each other it's still an improvement.

One other area where it could be better (and certainly not something that would build a business case but something which helps attract passengers to the railways), is that the OAO wouldn't be subject to the same pay disputes as those overseen by the government, so on strike days people could more easily get around than currently.

You won't fit a third in though.

 

[AndrewE]

If he mentioned the words ORCATS raid, then he doesn’t know what he is talking about. It won’t be an ORCATS raid - that is so last century.

ORCATS raiding is when you timetable your trains in front of a competitor so you gain their revenue from IA (Inter Available) tickets through the ORCATS algorithms allocating you a bigger % of the relevant flow revenue through Lennon, irrespective of whether you carry the passengers or not.

With the vast majority of journeys now AP, on the major main lines you bypass the % allocation process as 100% of the AP revenue always goes to you. It leaves now a very small % of IA left for anyone to try and ORCATS raid, certainly not what you would base any business plan on.

What I suspect is really being talked about here is competitive abstraction from the public purse through a competitor taking revenue off a state run incumbent via ordinary (and legal) competitive behaviour.

He did say it was very technical, but that by just running on a line they could claim a proportion of the total receipts (which is what I thought an ORCATS raid was.) We get buses running just in front of the all-day competitor company to steal their revenue, that doesn't have a fancy name but seems to be what you are describing.

 

[The Middle]

Doesn't appear that ORR have published any of these applications

Current track access applications | Office of Rail and Road

All documents relating to track access applications we are currently considering. This may include application forms, draft agreements, any related documents and responses we make public.

www.orr.gov.uk

So either the applications are a fantasy, or ORR doesn't consider that publishing them in timely manner is important.

Starting to appear here now under current track access consultations tab. However, currently that is by no means all of the ones that have been put out for consultation.

Sale of access rights - Network Rail

All passenger and freight train operators who want to use to our network require a track access contract. Our customer teams...

www.networkrail.co.uk

 

[Greybeard33]

Virgin has now published a press release detailing the four routes they have applied for:

Virgin Group applies for Open Access rail paths | Virgin

www.virgin.com

• London Euston
• Nuneaton
• Stoke on Trent
• Stockport
• Manchester Piccadilly

Then either:

• Manchester Victoria
• Rochdale (end point)

Or:

• Bolton
• Horwich
• Chorley
• Preston (end point)

-

• London Euston
• Tamworth
• Lichfield Trent Valley
• Runcorn
• Liverpool South Parkway
• Liverpool Lime Street

-

• London Euston
• Coventry
• Birmingham International
• Birmingham New Street

-

• London Euston
• Golborne
• Preston
• Carlisle
• Motherwell
• Lockerbie
• Glasgow Central

The route through the Castlefield corridor will clearly be especially difficult to path. The stop at Golborne is obviously dependent on delivery of the proposed new station (a pet project of Andy Burnham, GM Mayor).

 

[YorkRailFan]

Rochdale is very interesting considering Lumo's bid to operate to Rochdale.

 

[Energy]

Virgin has now published a press release detailing the four routes they have applied for:

Virgin Group applies for Open Access rail paths | Virgin

www.virgin.com

The route through the Castlefield corridor will clearly be especially difficult to path. The stop at Golborne is obviously dependent on delivery of the proposed new station (a pet project of Andy Burnham, GM Mayor).

Manchester will be difficult to path, and the rest look unlikely to pass revenue abstraction. Lumo got through by arguing that they are taking on air traffic, Virgin has made it clear in their press announcements that the aim is to undercut Avanti.