There is also the option of running extra services non-stop via the City line, which is a much underused extra route from the Valleys direct into Cardiff Central. It would also be quicker than services between Radyr to Queen St. Timetables would have to be redrawn to delete any lay over time at Radyr. Only possible of course if heavy rail is kept.
I think sending some services via Fairwater (non-stop) as you suggest might just get you the 4tph to Rhymney, Merthyr Tydfil, Aberdare and Treherbert as long as you never want any more branches than the metro map shows (assuming that 16tph applies to the whole ValleyLines network, or at least every part that needs it). It might, for example, be possible to do the following:
- 4tph Rhymney - Barry Island (via Queen Street)
- 4tph Treherbert - Penarth (via Queen Street)
- 2tph Merthyr Tydfil - Bridgend (via Queen Street and Barry)
- 2tph Merthyr Tydfil - Chepstow (via Fairwater, non-stop between Radyr and Cardiff Central, continuing to Cheltenham Spa once per hour)
- 2tph Aberdare - Hirwaun (via Queen Street and Fairwater, non-stop between Radyr and Cardiff Central on the via Fairwater leg) which makes 4tph between Radyr and Aberdare
- 1tph Blackwood - Radyr (all-stops via Cardiff Queen Street and Fairwater)
- 1tph Treharris - Radyr (all-stops via Cardiff Queen Street and Fairwater)
- 2tph Cardiff Gate - Llantrisant/Pontyclun (all-stops via Cardiff Queen Street and Fairwater)
That uses all 16tph between Central and Queen Street. It also has 10tph out of Cardiff towards Barry/Penarth and 8tph between Cardiff Central and Fairwater (the latter is probably close to the limit given that the Hirwaun and Merthyr services would be non-stop over that section and catching up with the stoppers). That means if additional branches (such as one to Brecon) are added in later phases of the metro additional capacity in central Cardiff would be needed or (in the case of my Brecon example) 2tph would need to be diverted to run to Brecon instead of Merthyr Tydfil, leaving Merthyr with only 2tph.
The hundreds of millions that was just spent on CASR and upgrading the signalling between Central and Queen St to enable 16tph to run (+1 freight path), building P8 at Central, linking up P4 at Central to the Valleys etc, is why the Welsh Govt now wants to rip it all up and put trams in place instead. Go figure.
They need the trams as well. Note that Coryton is absent from my list above, that line needs its own seperate route from Heath to Cardiff. It cannot share tracks with the 4tph service from the heads of the valleys; there simply isn't the capacity for it without cutting down the frequency asperations somewhere. So, converting Heath to Coryton to a tram service and building a new on-street tram line from Heath down to Cardiff Central is the best option I feel.
My preference is for a totally clean stopping pattern with consistent levels of services across the day not chop and change. The diagramming will get in a tangle and you lose clockface departures which is what the public prefer
I wasn't suggesting the '
INTERCITY' Manchesters have a different calling pattern, just different stock (with first class and a buffet) on specially selected diagrams.
Abergavenny is too important a stop to miss out and you'll sever a long standing direct link to Shropshire and the North West - i think you need to do your homework on where people are traveling to/from.
How do you tell where pepole are going? How important are through trains to Cardiff from Wrexham, for example? I know from this forum that the current 0.5tph Wrexham-Birmingham is vital and must be retained, but should Wrexham's other southbound services just terminate at Shrewsbury?
Taking your comment about Abergavenny on board, my suggestion for Crewe-Shrewsbury and the marches line south of Shrewsbury would be:
- 1tph Manchester, Stockport, Wilmslow, Crewe, Shrewsbury, Ludlow, Leominster, Hereford, Abergavenny, Newport, Cardiff, Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Neath, Swansea - Regional Express rolling stock, possibly with Intercity rolling stock on some diagrams
- 1tph Hereford-Cardiff all stations (depending on what fits, this could run through to Maesteg or Swansea to avoid turnback at a very busy Cardiff Central) - Outer Suburban rolling stock
- 1tph Shrewsbury, Church Stretton, Craven Arms, Ludlow, Leominster, Hereford, Abergavenny, Pontypool & New Inn, Cwmbran, Newport, Cardiff Central.
- 0.5tph Crewe, Nantwich, Whitchurch, Wem, Shrewsbury
- 0.5tph Crewe, Nantwich, Wrenbury, Whitchurch, Prees, Wem, Yorton, Shrewsbury
- 4 trains per day Shrewsbury-Swansea (via HOWL) all-stops (plus some additional short workings from Shrewsbury to Knighton/Knucklas/Llandrindod) with Regional rolling stock (eg. class 156)
- 4 trains per day Shrewsbury, Church Stretton, Craven Arms, Knighton, Llandrindod, Builth Road, Llanwrtyd, Llandovery, Llandeilo, Ammanford, Pontarddulais, Llanelli*, Gowerton, Swansea with Regional rolling stock (eg. class 156)
- 3 intercity trains per day Holyhead, Bangor, Llandudno Junction, Rhyl, Fflint, Chester, Wrexham General, Shrewsbury, Newport, Cardiff (with the TOC given the option of adding a call at Hereford if they think it would improve patronage without the train running out of seats).
Services 4 and 5 above could operate through to/from Cardiff as an extension of service 3, but I think it would be better if they could be operated by the West Midlands franchise (as an extension of their Birmingham-Shrewsburys) or by Northern (ideally running through to Manchester). If service 3 doesn't run through to Crewe, it could go to Wrexham (and perhaps from there on to Chester or even Liverpool), but if it does that then I feel it might need regional/regional-express type stock rather than the outer-suburban units (185s or 170s) that could operate it otherwise.
* Ideally I would like to see the HOWL rerouted via
Gorseinon, in which case that stop would replace Llanelli