Welsh Government - Rail Matters

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Welsh First Minister, Mark Drakeford, was quizzed today by the Welsh Affairs Committee (Westminster) on progress with new trains introduction.
He said TfW were behind schedule but it was down to delays with the manufacturer that only 33 trains were in service rather than the 77 planned.

MSN

Mr Drakeford said delays with the manufacturer which were outside of TfW's control had contributed to the slow rollout, but added that the delivery of a new train every seven to 10 days will accelerate the replacement of old stock. Mr Drakeford made the comments while speaking to MPs during an appearance at the Welsh Affairs Committee on Wednesday morning.
He told the committee: “By today, we were expecting to have 77 new trains, trains which would run on that South Wales to Manchester line. For many complex reasons, and the pandemic is certainly part of that picture, the manufacturer has only been able to deliver 33 of those trains to date. This means that Transport for Wales has had to keep running rolling stock which it had planned to retire.”
“The good news is that one new train is now being delivered to Transport for Wales every seven to 10 days, and so the ability of transport for Wales to substitute the new rolling stock for the old rolling stock will accelerate," he added. Asked whether he was satisfied with the service since the Welsh Government took over Wales’ rail services under TfW, the First Minister said: “Services are not as good as we want them to be and Transport for Wales has a job to do to improve the services.”

He defended the Welsh Government-owned rail company's performance, saying that it had improved last month and into October. “Transport for Wales are confident that that improvement will continue during the rest of this calendar year and into 2024, as they are able to deploy the new trains that were expected to have been here and operating already,” he said.

Later in the same report, it was noted that in a separate decision on WG finances and departmental budgets, TfW would get more money to cover for revenue shortfall, while all other departments other than the NHS would have budget cuts.
This is for the current year 2023/24; further budget cuts were anticipated for next year 2024/25.

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Rebecca Evans increased funding to TfW by £125m to "safeguard services for passengers and continue the programme of transformation currently underway".
She said rail services are facing cost pressures, particularly as home working means fewer passengers are commuting to work on the trains.

I'm more than a little surprised that TfW has not had greater criticism over its performance, and been ordered to cut costs, but the pressure must be on for next year.
These are just the same pressures faced by DfT TOCs.

 

[gazthomas]

Imagine buying 737s or A320s and having to snag them before going into service! Ryanair or Easyjet would equally be on their knees!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ryanair certainly has cancelled services into 2024 because of late deliveries of 737s from Boeing.
But unlike TfW, at least its existing fleet can keep going.

The TfW situation doesn't really explain the lines of stored 197s at Donnington.

 

[gazthomas]

Ryanair certainly has cancelled services into 2024 because of late deliveries of 737s from Boeing.
But unlike TfW, at least its existing fleet can keep going.

The TfW situation doesn't really explain the lines of stored 197s at Donnington.

Indeed

Indeed

Yep, the Max issue is quite the thing, but one would hope that CAF make trains that don't fall out of the sky!

 

[markymark2000]

I'm more than a little surprised that TfW has not had greater criticism over its performance, and been ordered to cut costs, but the pressure must be on for next year.

Politics is the main reasons for lack of criticism over TFW. Wales is mostly left leaning politically with those parties wanting nationalisation (Plaid Cymru and Labour both have this as their policies). Given that the railway is nationalised, neither party is going to kick off about the nationalised railway that they have wanted for so long. The major news outlets for Wales I would say is Wales Online, which in turn is owned by Reach PLC, which despite having some right wing papers, is predominantly left wing and that is very much reflected in the articles that they write.

So, left wing politicians, left wing policies, supported by left wing news outlets, where do you think the opposition/criticism is going to come from? Theres 18 opposition politicians in the Senedd and they are mostly conservatives who seem to flip flip on policies depending on what will make them popular on the day. Wales, politically, is a mess and the left won't stand up against it because there's a good chance that Drakeford won't be able to handle the stress and the right only speak up when it's the popular phrase of the day. Who's stuck in the middle? The normal everyday people who have to suffer the poor standards day in, day out. That is why there hasn't been as much criticism as those mainly in power won't speak badly of the system that they have wanted for so long. They won't have a bad word said about TFW and the fantastic transport network that they operate (across multiple modes). The amount of wasted money on fantasy projects because that's what a minister wants or money wasted with zero accountability. We've had discussions on the TrawsCymru side in the bus part of the forum and the same discussions are being had here on the train side, Transport for Wales is just a shambles and those who can make the changes, refuse to do so because they either benefit from it financially (IE, they are paid by TFW no matter how good of a job they do) or it would go against the politics.

Wales is not a country where it's a case of 'We need to make an effort to go out and win these peoples votes', it's a case of Labour could stick the circus monkey up for election and still win and I think for the conservatives, it's a case of 'we win what we win, we won't become the majority party so no point in trying too hard'.

That, is my opinion on why there is no more criticism over it's performance.

 

[ajay1071]

Politics is the main reasons for lack of criticism over TFW. Wales is mostly left leaning politically with those parties wanting nationalisation (Plaid Cymru and Labour both have this as their policies). Given that the railway is nationalised, neither party is going to kick off about the nationalised railway that they have wanted for so long. The major news outlets for Wales I would say is Wales Online, which in turn is owned by Reach PLC, which despite having some right wing papers, is predominantly left wing and that is very much reflected in the articles that they write.

So, left wing politicians, left wing policies, supported by left wing news outlets, where do you think the opposition/criticism is going to come from? Theres 18 opposition politicians in the Senedd and they are mostly conservatives who seem to flip flip on policies depending on what will make them popular on the day. Wales, politically, is a mess and the left won't stand up against it because there's a good chance that Drakeford won't be able to handle the stress and the right only speak up when it's the popular phrase of the day. Who's stuck in the middle? The normal everyday people who have to suffer the poor standards day in, day out. That is why there hasn't been as much criticism as those mainly in power won't speak badly of the system that they have wanted for so long. They won't have a bad word said about TFW and the fantastic transport network that they operate (across multiple modes). The amount of wasted money on fantasy projects because that's what a minister wants or money wasted with zero accountability. We've had discussions on the TrawsCymru side in the bus part of the forum and the same discussions are being had here on the train side, Transport for Wales is just a shambles and those who can make the changes, refuse to do so because they either benefit from it financially (IE, they are paid by TFW no matter how good of a job they do) or it would go against the politics.

Wales is not a country where it's a case of 'We need to make an effort to go out and win these peoples votes', it's a case of Labour could stick the circus monkey up for election and still win and I think for the conservatives, it's a case of 'we win what we win, we won't become the majority party so no point in trying too hard'.

That, is my opinion on why there is no more criticism over it's performance.

What a load of political bile, where have you been, time to remove your head from the sand, yes there has been delays in the introduction of new trains as the result of many factors which have been out of the control of Welsh Government namely covid restrictions (which serverely impacted upon driver /guard training and supply problems) and the inflation increases which has increased cost to all the new rail infrastructure projects in the core valley network. Any organisation or government who undertake almost a total renewal of rolling stock over a short period is going to meet challenges and teething issues along the way. If you be a little more patient when the projects come on line and to fruition we will have a decent well served metro system to be proud of. As for the rest of the network the new rolling stock is now being introduced on a weekly basis. As for insulting the electoral choices of the people of Wales would you like to enlighten us who you vote for and why.

 

[Cambrian359]

What a load of political bile, where have you been, time to remove your head from the sand, yes there has been delays in the introduction of new trains as the result of many factors which have been out of the control of Welsh Government namely covid restrictions (which serverely impacted upon driver /guard training and supply problems) and the inflation increases which has increased cost to all the new rail infrastructure projects in the core valley network. Any organisation or government who undertake almost a total renewal of rolling stock over a short period is going to meet challenges and teething issues along the way. If you be a little more patient when the projects come on line and to fruition we will have a decent well served metro system to be proud of. As for the rest of the network the new rolling stock is now being introduced on a weekly basis. As for insulting the electoral choices of the people of Wales would you like to enlighten us who you vote for and why.

TFW & WAG haven’t exactly been honest and upfront though have they. Biggest lie this year in claiming the 175 fleet was returning to service after the fires when in fact they were being stood down due to end of lease.
I’ve not seen anything in the media highlighting this lie/misleading statement they made……..and it was a big Pinocchio to be fair.
People forgive delays but not lies, but it seems they have gotten away with this one due to lack of media coverage.

 

[markymark2000]

What a load of political bile, where have you been, time to remove your head from the sand, yes there has been delays in the introduction of new trains as the result of many factors which have been out of the control of Welsh Government namely covid restrictions (which serverely impacted upon driver /guard training and supply problems) and the inflation increases which has increased cost to all the new rail infrastructure projects in the core valley network. Any organisation or government who undertake almost a total renewal of rolling stock over a short period is going to meet challenges and teething issues along the way. If you be a little more patient when the projects come on line and to fruition we will have a decent well served metro system to be proud of. As for the rest of the network the new rolling stock is now being introduced on a weekly basis.

While I do agree that there is blame elsewhere, you would be silly to basically say that the Welsh Government is they are blameless. It's interesting that you are bringing things up which I, nor others have even mentioned in a bid to prove your point, I ask are you a Welsh Govt minister as that is the only logical reason for you replying in such a way. At no point did I criticise them for the delays to the new trains or the cost of the Core Valley network, you have made those bits up!

As for insulting the electoral choices of the people of Wales would you like to enlighten us who you vote for and why.

Where did I insult the electorate? At no point at all have I said that they have made good or bad choices but what I said about Labour could put a circus monkey up for election and still win, is true and everyone knows that and if you don't know that, you are indeed the one with your head in the sand. It's clear as day and the political results prove it. Labour would have to do something pretty stupid for people to not vote for them. People of Wales are left leaning and they vote for a left leaning party, that isn't exactly rocket science and far from criticising the electorate.

People forgive delays but not lies, but it seems they have gotten away with this one due to lack of media coverage.

And will remain that way because of the political persuasions of the media within Wales (albeit that is probably proportionate to the electorate)

 

[Carlisle]

delays in the introduction of new trains as the result of many factors which have been out of the control of Welsh Government namely covid restrictions

Covid restrictions were the responsibility of the Welsh Government.

 

[dk1]

Covid restrictions were the responsibility of the Welsh Government.

And didn’t the welsh government drag that one out? People had to go to Bristol, Shrewsbury or Chester for a night out.

…or Hereford.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The issue for me was the gift of £125m to TfW to make up for loss of revenue (with fewer people travelling).
I would have expected TfW to be challenged to reduce its costs by that much rather than robbing the rest of the WG budget.
TfW have actually said they are reviewing their long-term service plans, but changes won't come in for some time (and dependent on new train introduction).
The DfT cost-reduction actions on its TOCs (reducing rolling stock, cutting ticket offices, changes in work practices etc) are notably absent at TfW.

 

[ajay1071]

While I do agree that there is blame elsewhere, you would be silly to basically say that the Welsh Government is they are blameless. It's interesting that you are bringing things up which I, nor others have even mentioned in a bid to prove your point, I ask are you a Welsh Govt minister as that is the only logical reason for you replying in such a way. At no point did I criticise them for the delays to the new trains or the cost of the Core Valley network, you have made those bits up!


Where did I insult the electorate? At no point at all have I said that they have made good or bad choices but what I said about Labour could put a circus monkey up for election and still win, is true and everyone knows that and if you don't know that, you are indeed the one with your head in the sand. It's clear as day and the political results prove it. Labour would have to do something pretty stupid for people to not vote for them. People of Wales are left leaning and they vote for a left leaning party, that isn't exactly rocket science and far from criticising the electorate.



And will remain that way because of the political persuasions of the media within Wales (albeit that is probably proportionate to the electorate)

You just can't help yourself can you, you criticising the electorate with even knowing it. I do not work for any government or aligned to any political party.

While I do agree that there is blame elsewhere, you would be silly to basically say that the Welsh Government is they are blameless. It's interesting that you are bringing things up which I, nor others have even mentioned in a bid to prove your point, I ask are you a Welsh Govt minister as that is the only logical reason for you replying in such a way. At no point did I criticise them for the delays to the new trains or the cost of the Core Valley network, you have made those bits up!


Where did I insult the electorate? At no point at all have I said that they have made good or bad choices but what I said about Labour could put a circus monkey up for election and still win, is true and everyone knows that and if you don't know that, you are indeed the one with your head in the sand. It's clear as day and the political results prove it. Labour would have to do something pretty stupid for people to not vote for them. People of Wales are left leaning and they vote for a left leaning party, that isn't exactly rocket science and far from criticising the electorate.



And will remain that way because of the political persuasions of the media within Wales (albeit that is probably proportionate to the electorate)

Do you actually read what you type, you just can't seem to help yourself with your continued mocking of what the Welsh electorate decid who and what they want to represent them. Not that it's any of your business but I am not involved in any government departments or political party, so it seems your assumptions are running wild with you. My reply is based on reality and what unforseen events that confounded and exasperated on what was always going to be an ambitious complex project resulting in nearly total renewal of rolling stock and some of the biggest infrastructure improvement in living memory. You, are the one who seem to be on a blame game, so it's the Welsh Government the media and the electorates fault, you forgot to mention Tom Dick and Harry.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You, are the one who seem to be on a blame game, so it's the Welsh Government the media and the electorates fault, you forgot to mention Tom Dick and Harry.

I think the poster you're replying to is so strongly in favour of private ownership and operation of public transport (as evidenced on past bus forum discussions and strong criticism of e.g. Transport for Greater Manchester) that they are unlikely to ever support TfW even if there were ten car electric trains along the North Wales Coast every 15 minutes. It'd either be "not good enough" or "too expensive". It's hard to argue against ideology (and to be fair I'll openly admit I can be the same in my strong favouring of public ownership and operation!)

I was going to make the point you were, though - TfW is rubbish at the moment as it's in a rather painful transitional period, and things are in place for it to genuinely get a lot better over the coming year or two, fixing decades of underinvestment, hence the Welsh Government needing to "bail it out" so it doesn't have to ruin that and the likely associated significant passenger growth by having to implement cuts now to balance the budget.

 

[ajay1071]

TFW & WAG haven’t exactly been honest and upfront though have they. Biggest lie this year in claiming the 175 fleet was returning to service after the fires when in fact they were being stood down due to end of lease.
I’ve not seen anything in the media highlighting this lie/misleading statement they made……..and it was a big Pinocchio to be fair.
People forgive delays but not lies, but it seems they have gotten away with this one due to lack of media coverage.

The 175 fleet had indeed suffered fires which put many of the fleet out of action for a time. Not sure why you mentioned "lies" the 175 fleet, as we all know, was intended to be stood down, the only surprise realy is they continued longer than expected due to the delays (for many reasons) of the introduction of the replacement new rolling stock. So no lies just unforseen events that had a negative impact on what was the rollout of one of the most ambitious investment in Welsh railways in modern history. It is nice to see the new the daily/weekly introduction of the new rolling stock and all the benefits that will bring, alas it will also suppress the frustrations of some of the doom and gloom mongers.

 

[markymark2000]

The issue for me was the gift of £125m to TfW to make up for loss of revenue (with fewer people travelling).

Was that to TFW as a whole or TFW Rail? If it's to TFW as a whole, that's another kettle of fish, the amount of waste on the bus side is amazing.

The DfT cost-reduction actions on its TOCs (reducing rolling stock, cutting ticket offices, changes in work practices etc) are notably absent at TfW.

You only have to go to Cardiff Central and through the valleys to see the huge amount of staff. The main gateline at Central can sometimes have as many as 6 staff, there are only about 12 barriers there. The huge swathes of Sword staff absolutely everywhere is quite comical too and then there is the night security which is under Silurian. You've got the issue with TFW having far too many 'pay when challenged' lines, I dread to think about the amount of ticketless travel goes on in the Valleys for example because people know when ticket barriers are open and know when guards refuse to go through the train for fear of repercussions.

I think the poster you're replying to is so strongly in favour of private ownership and operation of public transport (as evidenced on past bus forum discussions and strong criticism of e.g. Transport for Greater Manchester) that they are unlikely to ever support TfW even if there were ten car electric trains along the North Wales Coast every 15 minutes. It'd either be "not good enough" or "too expensive". It's hard to argue against ideology (and to be fair I'll openly admit I can be the same in my strong favouring of public ownership and operation!)

You know that I happily criticise private firms too, not just public firms. My comments on your hypothetical would be I'd complain it's overprovision and probably a waste of money. If everything worked well and it wasn't wasting taxpayers hard earned money though, I wouldn't complain. Both public and private models can do well, if they have the right leadership and do the right things.

I was going to make the point you were, though - TfW is rubbish at the moment as it's in a rather painful transitional period, and things are in place for it to genuinely get a lot better over the coming year or two, fixing decades of underinvestment, hence the Welsh Government needing to "bail it out" so it doesn't have to ruin that and the likely associated significant passenger growth by having to implement cuts now to balance the budget.

TFW has some good points, the issue is that some of the fantastic things that they are doing, are let down by some of the stupid things they do along the way. Investing in new trains, good idea, putting them in service with PIS faults though and replacing seats which people need, with catering cupboards which people don't need, bad idea. Investing in high quality intercity trains for the Marches, wonderful idea, more capacity and higher quality, can't argue against that. Sending them out in other people's liveries, having other operators reservations showing and not fulfilling the full timetable ever (3tpd on Holyheads plus the multiple Manchester runs), not good. Investing in the core valleys electrification, wonderful idea, great to see. Down side is the piecemeal way that they kept closing the lines meant disruption for some lines went on far longer than it could/should, caused a lot of confusion for passengers and a lot of issues with the bus replacements. I could go on. TFW rail side will hopefully become better as some of the projects fall into place however, in short, they do need a bit of a reality check (which it seems James Price has admitted to by saying some of the projects shouldn't have all been done as quick and all at the same time) and it need for someone to properly look at getting 1 job done right rather than 2 jobs half done.

If you look at TFW as a whole though, the bus side is a shambles, most of it is rather than doing 1 thing well, we will do 4 things really badly.


As for why isn't there more criticism, it's right though, you dont really get Labour MPs slating Labour owned companies and left leaning newspapers, do tend to back up Labour candidates. In the same way until recently when it became more rebellious, you didn't get many Conservatives slating Conservative policies or companies and you would find it hard to see right wing newspapers slating the conservatives and as we have seen with the elections, in safe seats/areas, some parties can put anyone/thing up for election and still win. That's the same across the UK. It's not slating the electorate, just being realistic. Wales is a pretty safe area for Labour and left leaning parties. My opinions on that are irrelevant, it is just fact.

 

[Bletchleyite]

TFW has some good points, the issue is that some of the fantastic things that they are doing, are let down by some of the stupid things they do along the way. Investing in new trains, good idea, putting them in service with PIS faults though and replacing seats which people need, with catering cupboards which people don't need, bad idea.

All manner of trains go into service with PIS faults, it's better having capacity out there than holding it back because the PIS software needs work, as long as the staff are putting a lot of attention into good quality manual announcements and checking through the train often to see if any deaf people are requiring assistance. Though I've never quite understood why it is so hard to get PIS right across the industry.

The catering cupboards were indeed ill advised, but they only take the space of 6 seats, some speak like it's half a coach. I understand actually removing them entirely is too hard, but I predict that they'll be converted into a luggage rack before too long, which would solve another problem with these units. To be fair on luggage, though, the overheads are huge, compared to the tiny ones on 175s that would barely take a coat. A lot of people travel with IATA or Ryanair sized carry-ons which easily fit overhead on these.

Investing in high quality intercity trains for the Marches, wonderful idea, more capacity and higher quality, can't argue against that. Sending them out in other people's liveries, having other operators reservations showing and not fulfilling the full timetable ever (3tpd on Holyheads plus the multiple Manchester runs), not good.

Agreed that the livery situation with these is tatty beyond belief, re-vinylling wouldn't cost that much, nor would sticking a bit of neatly cut tape over the reservation displays if they're stuck on old values (being e-ink displays you can't easily turn them off).

If you look at TFW as a whole though, the bus side is a shambles, most of it is rather than doing 1 thing well, we will do 4 things really badly.

I do think the bus side is a big missed opportunity to create a high quality, truly integrated network. But then I would say that

 

[Cambrian359]

The 175 fleet had indeed suffered fires which put many of the fleet out of action for a time. Not sure why you mentioned "lies" the 175 fleet, as we all know, was intended to be stood down, the only surprise realy is they continued longer than expected due to the delays (for many reasons) of the introduction of the replacement new rolling stock. So no lies just unforseen events that had a negative impact on what was the rollout of one of the most ambitious investment in Welsh railways in modern history. It is nice to see the new the daily/weekly introduction of the new rolling stock and all the benefits that will bring, alas it will also suppress the frustrations of some of the doom and gloom mongers.

175s may have been intended to stand down but James price/TFW released a statement about May time stating the fleet is being fixed and coming back into service…..it turns out they weren’t and there was no mention in that statement about them being stood down or going off lease, afaik many of them never returned to service. That’s where the ‘lies’ started , telling the fleet is coming back into service when it wasn’t.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Concentrating on class 197 deliveries also obscures the prolonged introduction of the Mk4 trains, which must be costing TfW an arm and a leg as they are owned directly by TfW, and they still have a round of upgrades to do to reach the target formations.

 

[markymark2000]

All manner of trains go into service with PIS faults, it's better having capacity out there than holding it back because the PIS software needs work, as long as the staff are putting a lot of attention into good quality manual announcements and checking through the train often to see if any deaf people are requiring assistance. Though I've never quite understood why it is so hard to get PIS right across the industry.

If trains have been in service for long enough though, the faults shouldn't still be happening. Given how long 197s have been in service now, there shouldn't be any bugs in the PIS except on lines which are new to the unit or not yet introduced (so I'd excuse an issue on the Cambrian or Llanelli areas for example but not on North Wales Coast or Marches). These bugs should have been fixed by now.

What I find funny is that bus next stop information isn't anywhere near as bad as this. Once set up, it normally works. The odd blip but seemingly high reliability. Trains struggle though.

The catering cupboards were indeed ill advised, but they only take the space of 6 seats, some speak like it's half a coach. I understand actually removing them entirely is too hard, but I predict that they'll be converted into a luggage rack before too long, which would solve another problem with these units. To be fair on luggage, though, the overheads are huge, compared to the tiny ones on 175s that would barely take a coat. A lot of people travel with IATA or Ryanair sized carry-ons which easily fit overhead on these.

6 seats is 6 seats. It's the difference between some people sitting and not having a seat. On the valley lines it's not as bad as the average journey time isn't as high but on the Marches, every seat counts and relying on them being doubled isn't a wise move for many reasons. Any competent manager with railway experience should have picked that up.

Removing the racks isn't easy but from how it's been explained to me, it's only an issue because TFW speced the train this way, they could have done it like the 195 or 196s so if that's the case, it's TFWs fault for doing things this way.

Agreed that the livery situation with these is tatty beyond belief, re-vinylling wouldn't cost that much, nor would sticking a bit of neatly cut tape over the reservation displays if they're stuck on old values (being e-ink displays you can't easily turn them off).

And should easily be picked up by any competent manager to be sorted before signing off the train for service (given the units were being sent out originally at a time when the fleet was more stable and not in a mad rush to get trains into service)

I do think the bus side is a big missed opportunity to create a high quality, truly integrated network. But then I would say that

Some great potential there in some cases but then you have random decisions like all of the many real time information screens..... Which are all showing scheduled times (allegedly in 2024 Wales will get a real time system though now the govt has given almost everyone Ticketer machines), the car crash T22 which would be best kept as separate routes. Sadly, a high quality integrated network needs someone to put the information into databases and yet TFW seem incapable of employing people who can input data into databases. Traveline Cymru (now headed up by TFW) keeps having wrong information sent out. Even the TrawsCymru website has errors on it because the team who sort it, are the incompetent ones from Traveline. The T1 changes with the T1A which is as useless as a chocolate teapot. Someone in TFW has signed off this waste of money. Happily letting the T19 cease due to Conwy Council refusing to give fair funding for school students. TFWs bus side is shocking. And no one holds TFW as a whole, or the respective divisions, accountable.

Latest Office of Rail and Road figures (https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/performance/passenger-rail-performance/) show that TFW is the 2nd worst for cancellations at 7.3%, 5th worst for punctuality at only 57%. All of this seems to go unnoticed and unchallenged by most Welsh ministers.

 

[Dr Day]

The issue for me was the gift of £125m to TfW to make up for loss of revenue (with fewer people travelling).
I would have expected TfW to be challenged to reduce its costs by that much rather than robbing the rest of the WG budget.

Big question marks therefore on the likelihood of that 'gift' being available next year, and the year after. Clearly *some* revenue will recover once major engineering has been completed and performance improves, but additional frequency will bring with it additional operating costs (as well as *some* additional revenue), quite possibly widening the gap still further. £125m is a pretty hefty gap already, so one has to wonder whether some of the mooted timetable improvements, particularly those outside the Valleys, remain affordable.

Interesting reflection of true revenues and costs that TfW is in this financial situation despite the many instances observed on this forum of overcrowding and clamours for additional trains and capacity.

 

[sh24]

Imagine buying 737s or A320s and having to snag them before going into service! Ryanair or Easyjet would equally be on their knees!

They do - and often delay deliveries as a result. See Qatar Airways and Airbus over A350, the whole 737 Max saga, multi-year delays on 787 etc etc

 

[Caaardiff]

James Price also publicly stated that the Marches was one of TFW's best earners. Yet they continued to put 2 car 150/153's/158's on the lines which lead to serious overcrowding and people being left behind. If they wanted to make money they should've scaled back the timetable to a suitable level to provide sufficient capacity on the money making routes. It would be interesting to see the money spent on rail replacement buses.

There's the failed 769 project, the failed introduction of the 230 project and current poor performance of them (With only 2 out of 5 in service), the poorly performing Mk4 project, the 175 debacle. Lets not forget that the fires were caused due to poor maintenance after the changeover to CAF. That changeover would've had oversight by TFW. Along with delays to the 197 introduction it's clear to see TFW had no contingency and have continued to ride the waves of fleet shortages since TFW took over 5 years ago.

I agree with comments that there is no-one holding TFW to account. If it was still under Keolis ownership the WG would've been all over this, and in turn so would the press.

 

[markymark2000]

Big question marks therefore on the likelihood of that 'gift' being available next year, and the year after. Clearly *some* revenue will recover once major engineering has been completed and performance improves, but additional frequency will bring with it additional operating costs (as well as *some* additional revenue), quite possibly widening the gap still further. £125m is a pretty hefty gap already, so one has to wonder whether some of the mooted timetable improvements, particularly those outside the Valleys, remain affordable.

Interesting reflection of true revenues and costs that TfW is in this financial situation despite the many instances observed on this forum of overcrowding and clamours for additional trains and capacity.

It's not always the reduced patronage but lack of revenue protection. In a good amount of areas, it's pay when challenged and TFW refuse to have enough revenue staff and refuse to put them in the right places to give out fines. They have the intel as I know people who are giving them the intel, they just don't care. Free travel for all in some areas

It would be interesting to see the money spent on rail replacement buses.

It's extremely high. The more worrying thing is the amount spent on rail replacement buses which doesn't need to be spent on them as the buses follow trains. Coming up in a few weeks is TFW running buses Chester - Manchester. Northern running buses to Warrington Bank Quay and running trains from there. Nothing stops TFW running trains Warrington to Manchester but instead no, buses all the way. Newton Le Willows still offering 3 trains per hour to Manchester stations and yet TFW feel the need to duplicate over those trains by wasting money on buses. From Warrington, the TFW bus and Northern bus run within 4 minutes of eachother calling at all the same stops. TFWs REFUSAL to work with other TOCs is costing taxpayers thousands of pounds. They simply have no care for the fact they are spending taxpayers money, they think it's just a bottomless money pit and especially as the Welsh Govt is Labour ran, they will keep throwing money at it with no oversight and no accountability.

Northern train: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:P43672/2023-11-16/detailed
Connects into Northern bus: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:S06406/2023-11-16/detailed
TFW bus: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:V26614/2023-11-16/detailed
Bus leaves Piccadilly 09:48. Northern train to Earlestown and Newton Le Willows at 09:54 (gets in quicker than the bus). From Newton Le Willows, the bus leaves 10:23, Northern train to Earlestown and Warrington at 10:26. TFW bus leaves Warrington 10:46, Northern bus leaves 10:50.
Going the other way isn't as bad as there are gaps from Chester. From Earlestown and Newton Le Willows though, there are trains which get into Manchester about the same time as the bus.

Yet again, silly planners don't understand that the bus routing means that Newton Le Willows comes before Earlestown (unless they are specifying vehicles less than 2.6m high) so yet again, anyone going to Newton Le Willows has to be driven past their station and do a 20 minute loop before they are allowed to get off. Absolute joke, as per with TFW on this line. Have they not learnt yet? What a colossal waste of taxpayers money, and yet who is being held accountable for this? Absolutely no one. All of this wasting taxpayers money just because of refusing to work with other operators. Same happened in Gloucester with Cross Country having to run their own buses for a laugh, just because TFW refuse to work with them. Sadly, no matter how bad of a job you do in TFW, you have a job for life. It's like it's one of the questions at interview, 'Are you incompetent?', if you answer yes, you get the job.

If it was still under Keolis ownership the WG would've been all over this, and in turn so would the press.

Because Keolis is a private company. Welsh Ministers and Welsh media refuse to speak bad over welsh government ran things.

 

[Dai Corner]

I'm disappointed that they haven't increased fares to address the revenue shortfall.

The Marches line is apparently profitable and clearly a resilient market given how busy it is despite poor quality trains, delays and cancellations. Introduction of the 197s would be a good reason to charge more.

The Valleys fare cap of £5.20 single / £8.30 return Anytime return makes longer peak time journeys pretty cheap.

Bridgend-Cardiff and Weston-super-Mare-Bristol Temple Meads are both about 20 miles.

Off-peak Weston-Bristol is £8.40 single £8.50 return. Anytime is £8.60/£13.10

As others have noted, Wales is pretty much a one-party state with Labour guaranteed to be in power, with a little help from Plaid Cymru in return for some funding for their pet projects and anti-English gestures. There is really no incentive for them to provide good, cost-effective public services.

If only the money paid to the private sector to provide rail replacement buses could have been spent on subsidising normal bus services we may not have seen the cuts last month.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't believe the Marches line is "profitable" at 2tph-ish of 2-3 car trains.
It very likely is the best-performing TfW route, requiring least subsidy, and with a measure of business travel.
Network Rail's costs on the 90mph line, with multiple manual signal boxes, must be high.

 

[Dai Corner]

I don't believe the Marches line is "profitable" at 2tph-ish of 2-3 car trains.
It very likely is the best-performing TfW route, requiring least subsidy, and with a measure of business travel.
Network Rail's costs on the 90mph line, with multiple manual signal boxes, must be high.

TfW chief executive is quoted in this thread as saying it's their only profitable service.

If course, it all depends on how you do the sums. It's profitable for TfW after Network Rail meet the costs, which are no doubt higher than the track access charges TfW pay them.

TFW To Shake Up Rail Timetables

Be interesting to see what TFW come up with. Plus it's down to the new rolling stock to be in place also i guess. "Timetables of all trains run by Transport by Wales are to examined after "massive" changes to travel patterns in the aftermath of Covid. TfW chief executive James Price told MPs...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Krokodil]

Covid restrictions were the responsibility of the Welsh Government.

If wasn't the Welsh Government's fault that CAF withdrew their staff straight back to Spain.

The DfT cost-reduction actions on its TOCs (reducing rolling stock, cutting ticket offices, changes in work practices etc) are notably absent at TfW.

Good. England must be the only country in Europe reacting to a temporary reduction in demand for public transport by imposing timetable cuts, cutting train lengths (even where overcrowding is common) and winding up an industrial dispute for no real gain. Other countries are offering unlimited regional travel for €49/month.

putting them in service with PIS faults though

Would you rather have a cancellation or short-form?

Investing in high quality intercity trains for the Marches, wonderful idea, more capacity and higher quality, can't argue against that. Sending them out in other people's liveries,

No one cares about a bit of vinyl. They would rather have a seat. Just as long as you aren't confusing people with a Northern 150 at Piccadilly then it really doesn't matter.

If it was still under Keolis ownership the WG would've been all over this

A lot of the poor decision making was done on Keolis' watch.

I'm disappointed that they haven't increased fares to address the revenue shortfall.

If they had I bet that the same characters would be starting a thread moaning about it. Maybe the WG actually believe in public services, rather than taking the first opportunity to cut funding.

 

[Dai Corner]

If they had I bet that the same characters would be starting a thread moaning about it. Maybe the WG actually believe in public services, rather than taking the first opportunity to cut funding.

They've cut funding to other public services rather than charge railway passengers (who are a small proportion of the population) more.

 

[Krokodil]

They've cut funding to other public services rather than charge railway passengers (who are a small proportion of the population) more.

The money is to cover the inflated cost of the Valleys electrification (there's a war on, you know). They can't really just abandon the scheme mid way. Most of the cuts are to capex.

 

[Dai Corner]

The money is to cover the inflated cost of the Valleys electrification (there's a war on, you know). They can't really just abandon the scheme mid way. Most of the cuts are to capex.

Well, they could take the same view as the UK Government have with HS2 in the post-Covid world and realise that enhanced capacity is no longer needed.


If the benefits are confined to Cardiff and the Valleys why should the rest of Wales suffer? Maybe there will be steep increases to fares once the enhanced services start? That's what tended to happen under BR.