What if... "The Grayling Axe"

[DasLunatic]

Imagine that the infamous Beeching Axe never happened, but electrification and dieselisation did as usual. You see on the news that Network Rail will be closing some lines across the UK during 2017/8, in what has been called the Grayling Axe. What would be different in this timeline as compared to Beeching's axe, and what lines would be likely to be closed? What would happen to the now redundant stock?

Answers on a postcard below.

 

[FordFocus]

What are the lines rumoured to be closing?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

Surely an awful lot of the line closures would be the ones that never got closed before because Beeching never existed? Or are we assuming that we only ever had the network we have now?

 

[swt_passenger]

It wouldn't take Grayling's name, it would be named after the consultant who produced the report...

 

[DasLunatic]

Surely an awful lot of the line closures would be the ones that never got closed before because Beeching never existed? Or are we assuming that we only ever had the network we have now?

We had the network as it was when the original Beeching Axe was released - 1963. Privatisation/Railtrack/Network Rail happened as per our current timeline.

 

[theironroad]

What are the lines rumoured to be closing?

I don't think the op means that this is really happening. It's just another railukforum imaginary thread of what train services would you fantasise, but in this case trying to guess about something that hasn't happened.

 

[najaB]

Answers on a postcard below.

It's virtually impossible to answer that one since we would be using what we know about usage patterns of today's network to try and answer a question about the 1960's network.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

It's virtually impossible to answer that one since we would be using what we know about usage patterns of today's network to try and answer a question about the 1960's network.

Indeed. A few years ago, between the ferry leaving and the service being increased, Stranraer was probably the least safe going, though of course no-one would close a line of that length outright these days, however if the Port Road was still running it may have put a totally different angle on matters. We just don't know.

 

[swt_passenger]

I think this is going to be impossible to answer. If we have to assume that the rail network is as it was in the early 60s, then do we also assume that the road system never changed either?

Are we still as industrialised as in the 60s or do we still rely mainly on imports? Does white van man exist yet? Is the army, navy and airforce the same size? etc etc...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think this is going to be impossible to answer. If we have to assume that the rail network is as it was in the early 60s, then do we also assume that the road system never changed either?

This posting sums up the matter of the competing motorway and road upgrades that have to be looked at in tandem very well indeed.

 

[Harbornite]

As has been said before, it's a very difficult question because the government has a different mindset and it's hard to judge what would have happened to the lines that closed in reality under Beeching but survived in this scenario.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's not generally realised that there was a steady stream of closures in the years before Beeching, and these would have continued.
Beeching and the DfT just accelerated the process, which made it harder to object to specific closures.
No chance that the GC main line would have survived, for instance, even without Beeching.
BR would not have been allowed to replace all the steam stock which ran the closed lines.

 

[BigCj34]

The Ulverston-Lakeside line would be too seasonally reliant to be justified holding on to. If the line was still there the A590 would also have a radically different routing.

 

[najaB]

If the xxx line was still there the Axxx / Bxxx /Mxxx would also have a radically different routing.

Can be repeated across the country.

 

[Grinner]

Those interested in the idea of “what if” type history might enjoy this timeline from the Alternate History forum, that imagines a journey around a Britain that didn’t have a Beeching Axe:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/oh-doctor-beeching.359592/#post-11000214

Very enjoyable if you’re into Alternate History (which I am), and the guy who wrote in clearly knows the railway, so it’s pretty well informed. The basic theme is that there were no cutback, so you end with a large network but slow and infrequent services over a lot of it, and not much investment in the rest of it as resources are spread so thinly.

 

[Domeyhead]

It's an interesting idea, but the modern railway is so capital intensive that it's hard to imagine any line closing once it's had millions in modern track, station and signalling technology invested in it. All the stations would be improved, with lighting, possibly ticket machines etc. Improved train comfort frequency and reliability mean that ridership will go up. Signalling would be centrally controlled, stations unmanned so huge staff reductions on rural lines. however the cost of doing that to the full network over the years would be immense, so we probably wouldn't have an NHS any more and Network Rail would be a Government department in its own right....

 

[Bletchleyite]

One could perhaps look at Germany for an example - they didn't have Beeching, but have been slowly but surely closing small regional lines for the last 20 years or more.

"Nichts bestellt" - nothing ordered - is quite an ominous phrase.

 

[yorksrob]

As previous posters have mentioned, there was already a process going on to reduce the network.

Perhaps without Beeching, things might have happened in a less precipitous way, more organically. Perhaps with a less ideological reliance on shrinking route mileage and a better attempt to economise.

 

[JohnElliott]

Those interested in the idea of “what if” type history might enjoy this timeline from the Alternate History forum, that imagines a journey around a Britain that didn’t have a Beeching Axe:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/oh-doctor-beeching.359592/#post-11000214

Very enjoyable if you’re into Alternate History (which I am), and the guy who wrote in clearly knows the railway, so it’s pretty well informed. The basic theme is that there were no cutback, so you end with a large network but slow and infrequent services over a lot of it, and not much investment in the rest of it as resources are spread so thinly.

I suspect that in that timeline, the standard London commuter train isn't an Electrostar or a Desiro, but a Networker Classic -- in some cases, the third set of bodywork that the same chassis has carried (NOL -> EPB -> Networker Classic).

 

[nw1]

Imagine that the infamous Beeching Axe never happened, but electrification and dieselisation did as usual. You see on the news that Network Rail will be closing some lines across the UK during 2017/8, in what has been called the Grayling Axe. What would be different in this timeline as compared to Beeching's axe, and what lines would be likely to be closed? What would happen to the now redundant stock?

Answers on a postcard below.

How about Grayling himself?

Seriously... none really. Closing lines was a backward step - struggling to find any current or former lines in this part of the country which, with provision of useful services, would not serve a purpose.

Imagine the Midhurst line for instance - which got the chop in the 1950s, even before Beeching. It might not be the most direct route, but I'd imagine if it was electrified we could have a Petersfield-Midhurst-Petworth-Horsham-London service which would act as a useful commuter train if it was limited-stop after Horsham, e.g. a 2-car EMU attaching to a Bognor service. I think similar arguments could be made for most lines, e.g. the old Romsey-Andover and Andover-Cheltenham services could be a "Regional Railways" style service from Southampton to Cheltenham these days, giving more direct services between quite a few places. Using imagination and growing the market with useful services that will attract people is a much better way forward than closure.