What If.......?

[Whistler40145]

I have always wondered what the Railways would be like know e.g. Classes 25-27 & 81-85 were still in traffic? What would a fleet of Deltics be working & in what livery?

If you have any thoughts of your own, I would love to read them.

 

[sprinterguy]

Everything would be slower and much less reliable…

…but a lot more entertaining!

I occasionally wonder how things would have panned out if BR had been allowed to just get on with the standard steam programme to its’ full extent, and not had the unnecessarily expensive modernisation plan impinged on it to the same extent as it did, resulting in vast swathes of unreliable diesel locomotives intended for traffic flows that were disappearing. I suspect we would have gone straight from Britannias (and maybe a fleet of class 8 “Dukes”) to HSTs, and from 9Fs to 56s and 58s. It would have saved an awful lot of hassle and expense.

 

[LE Greys]

Everything would be slower and much less reliable…

…but a lot more entertaining!

I occasionally wonder how things would have panned out if BR had been allowed to just get on with the standard steam programme to its’ full extent, and not had the unnecessarily expensive modernisation plan impinged on it to the same extent as it did, resulting in vast swathes of unreliable diesel locomotives intended for traffic flows that were disappearing. I suspect we would have gone straight from Britannias (and maybe a fleet of class 8 “Dukes”) to HSTs, and from 9Fs to 56s and 58s. It would have saved an awful lot of hassle and expense.

On a similar note, what if the Pilot Scheme had gone as planned, order a few prototypes, then decide which diesel classes to order in bulk. Would we have still seen 40s and Peaks, or just one class? Which would it be? Would we have seen all those DMU classes, or just loads more Metro-Cammell and Derby units built by subcontractors. No idea whether we would ever have had diesel-hydraulics, but they probably wouldn't have gone beyond the prototype stage.

I reckon we would have gone for one Type 4 (probably one of the three Peak classes), one Type 3 (English Electric), two Type 2s (BR Works and Brush) and one Type 1 (English Electric), none of the multiplicity of shunters, just the 08s and a few oddballs, and eventually one Type 5 (Deltic). The class numbers would thus be a bit lower, with Deltics being Class 50s, and EE Type 3s being Class 30s. The eventual more-powerful Type 4 would be either the Brush or English Electric variety, and probably end up as Class 45. Numbers, especially of the "Class 30" would probably get over the 1,000 mark.

I also suspect that the 9Fs would have been around for a lot longer, probably until the "Class 51" (Brush Type 5) emerged to take over the heavy freight role. New features might have appeared, Gisel ejectors and gas-producer fireboxes for instance. Maybe the Britannias and some of the other Standards might have hung on into the seventies, hopefully concentrated on the last main line to be dieselised, the GCML (or electrified when the Woodhead converted to 25 kV a.c.). Finally, the new EMD locos that appeared after privatisation would be something in the region of "Class 55", and the new GE machines probably "Class 60".

 

[sprinterguy]

I suppose it depends if development of British Rails’ standard diesel locos stopped when they were satisfied with their favourite of the earlier designs: The class 47s and 50s, especially the 50s, are what I consider to be the “second stage” of BR diesel loco development, which grew out of experience with all the earlier classes of “locos with noses”. While I imagine there would have been large numbers of English Electric Type 3s built no matter what, would classes 40, 44, 45 and 46 got beyond a handful of prototype locos before the class 47 came along? Or would a build of over five hundred class 50s happened instead of class 47s in order to keep to the same builder as the Type 1s (Class 20s), Type 3s (Class 37s) and Type 5s (Deltics). There’s so many permutations that would have been possible if BR had looked to standardise its’ fleet of diesel locos, which goes to exemplify just how diverse the build programme ended up.

Hindsight is an exceptionally useful thing to have: If only BR had known what would happen to the BR network in the decade after 1955, they would never have ordered so many varied Type 1 loco classes for trip workings and branch line freight traffic that was rapidly disappearing, and equally they could have built far fewer standard steam locos of the 2MT and 3MT classifications for branch line passenger work, instead keeping the old pre-nationalisation steam stock until sufficient first gen DMUs, of fewer standardised designs, were available to replace them on the lines that remained open.

 

[LE Greys]

Hindsight is an exceptionally useful thing to have: If only BR had known what would happen to the BR network in the decade after 1955, they would never have ordered so many varied Type 1 loco classes for trip workings and branch line freight traffic that was rapidly disappearing, and equally they could have built far fewer standard steam locos of the 2MT and 3MT classifications for branch line passenger work, instead keeping the old pre-nationalisation steam stock until sufficient first gen DMUs, of fewer standardised designs, were available to replace them on the lines that remained open.

I've always thought the Standards were necessary for their time. With so many Victorian relics still in service (the Southern M7s from the 1890s and the LNER J15s from the 1880s for instance) it was about time something came in to replace them, get costs down and standardise the network. The new locos never really had the chance to prove what they could do. Given a slower implementation of the Modernisation Plan, they could have concentrated on smaller areas over ten years or so, while the Victorian engines were scrapped.

It's also worth remembering that BR built more Big 4 locos than it did Standards. Many Black 5s, B1s, Halls and Manors never ran for the company that designed them. Even the Peppercorn A1s and some Castles were BR-built. As for Pannier Tanks, several hundred came from various workshops, so many that they were essentially the Standard shunter, although they also built some J72s (designed in 1886). Why? Some were completion of orders, but surely it would have been better to design a true Standard shunter, or simply to wait for the diesels that were almost ready to enter service.

 

[theblackwatch]

Deltics would be doing trip workings around the North East! Oh, actually, they are...

 

[Moog_1984]

26s could limp a little but 27s had become pretty unreliable by the early 80s despite the 27/1-2 refurbs. Spectacularly, they still went on fire or threw pistons.

The issue may have been that the 6LDA was being made by under suppliers while the 26s and 33s got sulzer original quality.

I was going through some bashing books of the early 80s and I had quite a few failed "roarers", but we still rated them over the "duff" of the WCML- the ever dull 86s.

For the deltics, it would probably have made sense to shove in an RK 12 or 16 to extend their lives: the deltic PUs did not like the start-stop stuff like Newcastle-Liverpool once IC125s took most of their ECML work.

 

[northernrail]

What would a fleet of Deltics be working & in what livery

East Coast Silver Deltic, now that would be nice

 

[LE Greys]

IC Swallow 50, if they had decided that 100 mph performance was preferred over standardisation.

 

[Whistler40145]

Didn't BR reduce the Max Speed on Class 50s from 100mph in their last years to reduce the risk of Main Generator & Traction Motor Flashover damage?

 

[Moog_1984]

Didn't BR reduce the Max Speed on Class 50s from 100mph in their last years to reduce the risk of Main Generator & Traction Motor Flashover damage?

I heard so at the time.

They would have been much better fitting them with alternators at HGR overhaul in the 1980s. Flash overs were the known biggest problem, but were probably blamed on the "dyson" style air cleaning not working (not actually a hoover bag!!)

Duffs and peaks also had flash overs, and it is stated in one source that EE were not very confident in going over 1.8kw ( app 2300 hp) with a generator but were happy with Dp2 so went ahead.

 

[LE Greys]

I heard so at the time.

They would have been much better fitting them with alternators at HGR overhaul in the 1980s. Flash overs were the known biggest problem, but were probably blamed on the "dyson" style air cleaning not working (not actually a hoover bag!!)

Duffs and peaks also had flash overs, and it is stated in one source that EE were not very confident in going over 1.8kw ( app 2300 hp) with a generator but were happy with Dp2 so went ahead.

Saw it happen once on a Duff leaving Bath Spa (deputising for an HST during the Hatfield slowdown). Enormous blue arc under the rear bogie. Can't have been a bad one, because she just carried on pulling away.

 

[Anon Mouse]

east coast silver deltic, now that would be nice:d

gbrf :d

 

[Sun Chariot]

Back to the Pilot Scheme, the decision to have British designs was politically driven (stimulate the manufacturing economy, jobs, etc).
I believe the first thought had actually been to buy in established American technology and that would never...oh, hang on... :roll:

 

[LE Greys]

Back to the Pilot Scheme, the decision to have British designs was politically driven (stimulate the manufacturing economy, jobs, etc).
I believe the first thought had actually been to buy in established American technology and that would never...oh, hang on... :roll:

Didn't the LNER order a few diesels from EMD, possibly to use on the southern half of the ECML. They were also considering electrifying the northern half, mind you the NER wanted to do that and even produced this as a prototype. So we have another, "what if". What if the either the NER or LNER scheme succeeded. If the former, we'd certainly never have seen A4s and A3s. The directors would almost certainly have wanted to extend the scheme to King's Cross, and something resembling the Class 77s might have appeared. Gresley helped design them, and although they might not be as advanced, they would look similar. If the latter, then BR would have had to make a decision. Convert to 25 kV a.c. or retain as 1,500 V d.c.? Whichever it was, we would certainly never have seen the Deltics, unless Western Region decided against ordering diesel-hydraulics. Most likely, the line would have been worked by either 77s or 86s. In fact, it's quite likely that all BR electrification from then on would have been 1,500 V d.c., so the same as France. Channel Tunnel in the 1960s?

 

[sprinterguy]

Didn't the LNER order a few diesels from EMD, possibly to use on the southern half of the ECML. They were also considering electrifying the northern half, mind you the NER wanted to do that and even produced this as a prototype. So we have another, "what if". What if the either the NER or LNER scheme succeeded. If the former, we'd certainly never have seen A4s and A3s. The directors would almost certainly have wanted to extend the scheme to King's Cross, and something resembling the Class 77s might have appeared. Gresley helped design them, and although they might not be as advanced, they would look similar. If the latter, then BR would have had to make a decision. Convert to 25 kV a.c. or retain as 1,500 V d.c.? Whichever it was, we would certainly never have seen the Deltics, unless Western Region decided against ordering diesel-hydraulics. Most likely, the line would have been worked by either 77s or 86s. In fact, it's quite likely that all BR electrification from then on would have been 1,500 V d.c., so the same as France. Channel Tunnel in the 1960s?

Also, would the Woodhead route have remained open if it connected into an electrified ECML at the east end that was also 1500V DC? (I assume an electrified infill from Sheffield/Wath to Doncaster would have been rational for the LNER in this instance)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Like 60163 Tornado, I really would have loved too see what modern construction methods could have turned out as fleets of these .Just imagine a fleet based on the following running today:-

71000 (Only this one actually built)
4-6-2 Merchant Navy SR
4-6-2 Duchess LMS
4-6-2 A4 Pacific LNER
4-6-0 King WR
4-6-0 Black Five LMS (and everywhere else)
2-8-0 Ex-WD design (Everywhere up north)
2-8-2 P2 class LNER
2-10-0 British Rail.....just have to have these in for big freight jobs

These are some of what would be popular examples. I could have entered more freight classes in, but there are too many to mention.

I have tried to come up with the steam equivalent of a Class 142 Pacer, but all I got were photographs of a Sentinal "Steam Bus".

 

[Yew]

Like 60163 Tornado, I really would have loved too see what modern construction methods could have turned out as fleets of these .Just imagine a fleet based on the following running today:-

71000 (Only this one actually built)
4-6-2 Merchant Navy SR
4-6-2 Duchess LMS
4-6-2 A4 Pacific LNER
4-6-0 King WR
4-6-0 Black Five LMS (and everywhere else)
2-8-0 Ex-WD design (Everywhere up north)
2-8-2 P2 class LNER
2-10-0 British Rail.....just have to have these in for big freight jobs

These are some of what would be popular examples. I could have entered more freight classes in, but there are too many to mention.

I have tried to come up with the steam equivalent of a Class 142 Pacer, but all I got were photographs of a Sentinal "Steam Bus".

Take a tank engine, with some coal wagons with bennches in them

 

[ACE1888]

I miss the 'good old days' of loco hauled stock, but as with all things, it evolves, perhaps things may go 'full circle' in the future?? But 'classic' loco's in Newer liveries?? No, not for me...

 

[yorksrob]

I'd rather ponder the question "what would the railway be like if CIG's, VEP's, EPB's and DEMU's were still in traffic.

The answer would of course be lovely.

 

[ainsworth74]

The answer would of course be lovely.

But also not as reliable and probably even more expensive to maintain

However it would be lovely that I won't deny it would also be more interesting from a variety point of view. Waterloo was distinctly samey when I was there in April this year.

 

[yorksrob]

But also not as reliable and probably even more expensive to maintain

However it would be lovely that I won't deny it would also be more interesting from a variety point of view. Waterloo was distinctly samey when I was there in April this year.

Although as far as I'm aware the CIG's and VEP's had some very enviable reliability figures right up until withdrawal

 

[ainsworth74]

Although as far as I'm aware the CIG's and VEP's had some very enviable reliability figures right up until withdrawal

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story!

 

[yorksrob]

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story!

Actually, I'm sure I remember reading in a railway industry publication in around 2004-5 that the VEP's CIG's had a very good reliability record in comparison to more modern units. Alas they don't appear to publish their back issues on the internet but maybe someone could set my mind at ease.

 

[ainsworth74]

Actually, I'm sure I remember reading in a railway industry publication in around 2004-5 that the VEP's CIG's had a very good reliability record in comparison to more modern units.

But it is worth remembering that at that time the modern units were only just coming online meaning that of course maintenance crews only have a matter of months of experience compared with decades of experience on VEPs and CIGs. I would expect them to be performing poorer in comparison at that point in their life. A fairer comparison would be to look at the units now that they've bedded in with the VEPs and CIGs as they were then.

 

[yorksrob]

But it is worth remembering that at that time the modern units were only just coming online meaning that of course maintenance crews only have a matter of months of experience compared with decades of experience on VEPs and CIGs. I would expect them to be performing poorer in comparison at that point in their life. A fairer comparison would be to look at the units now that they've bedded in with the VEPs and CIGs as they were then.

And do you have these figures?

Possibly true, but I seem to recall that the CIG's and VEPs did very well compared to the other train fleets at the time, including many which had had time to bed in.

 

[ainsworth74]

And do you have these figures?

Unfortunately not, it's mostly just guess work on my part. I do know that the 444s at least have very high figures (something like 70,000MPC). I guess to take this further we're going to need some actual hard figures of the units involved. Anyone?

 

[yorksrob]

Unfortunately not, it's mostly just guess work on my part. I do know that the 444s at least have very high figures (something like 70,000MPC). I guess to take this further we're going to need some actual hard figures of the units involved. Anyone?

Indeed. (and the 444's are very good for modern units). Unless someone is prepared to look through the back issues of "Rail" we won't know. I have them but I'm too lazy at the mo TBH.

 

[Hydro]

And do you have these figures?

Possibly true, but I seem to recall that the CIG's and VEPs did very well compared to the other train fleets at the time, including many which had had time to bed in.

That said, the CIG, VEP and CEP stock were a lot more simple in their construction, maintenance and operation that the stock that replaced them.

(plus a whole lot better, but lets not let nostalgia and experience get in the way)

 

[sheff'd victoria]

Also, would the Woodhead route have remained open if it connected into an electrified ECML at the east end that was also 1500V DC? (I assume an electrified infill from Sheffield/Wath to Doncaster would have been rational for the LNER in this instance)

I hope the Woodhead would be open, however it would be interesting if Sheffield Victoria would have been re opened up and all the intermediate stations