What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[ainsworth74]

Just a quick note that we're getting a little bit all over the place on this thread bringing in UK domestic politics into a thread which is about the issues in Australia/New Zealand. Please could we take any further discussion about what may or may not (or has or has not) happen in the UK to other relevant threads or if need be start a new one. Thanks

 

[brad465]

Within a week the active community case count in New Zealand has gone from 1 to 107, the latest increase being 35. Meanwhile here is the Australia dashboard's latest update:

Total Active Cases - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

 

[Bantamzen]

It does seem that both Australia & New Zealand are struggling to come to terms with the fact that they cannot "defeat" the virus. And sadly it seems that in their near-constant ego massaging they have both forgotten that vaccinations are the number one strategy in getting back normality. Its not as if there were not warning signs, other countries in the far east have all seen exactly the same results despite heavy restrictions / border closures, so that should have prompted them to go all out for vaccines.

This should be a lesson not just for them but for the world. I've said this all along so sorry for the stuck record impression, but viruses do what viruses do, they spread. Hiding away behind locked doors & borders do not work in the long run. They will still have to deal with covid even after 18 months of this, but they will be dealing with it from a worse vaccination position. Yet despite all this there are still people cheering them on across social media, including people from countries with high levels of vaccinated. Its only when these people pipe down, and the politicians down under are left exposed in the harsh light of their decision making that people will wake up from this global delusion of human exceptionalism.

 

[nw1]

The other thing Australia and NZ seem to fail to realise is: OK vaccines may cost (a lot of) money, but surely the money that will be lost through prolonged lockdowns will be greater than that lost through speeding up vaccination.

It seems to be a cross-political-standpoint thing, with Morrison and Ardern coming from different political standpoints, and both main Australian parties being apparently stridently pro-lockdown. Maybe because they haven't been hurt so hard economically compared to European and North American countries, they feel they can 'afford' lockdown at the moment?

 

[brad465]

It does seem that both Australia & New Zealand are struggling to come to terms with the fact that they cannot "defeat" the virus. And sadly it seems that in their near-constant ego massaging they have both forgotten that vaccinations are the number one strategy in getting back normality. Its not as if there were not warning signs, other countries in the far east have all seen exactly the same results despite heavy restrictions / border closures, so that should have prompted them to go all out for vaccines.

This should be a lesson not just for them but for the world. I've said this all along so sorry for the stuck record impression, but viruses do what viruses do, they spread. Hiding away behind locked doors & borders do not work in the long run. They will still have to deal with covid even after 18 months of this, but they will be dealing with it from a worse vaccination position. Yet despite all this there are still people cheering them on across social media, including people from countries with high levels of vaccinated. Its only when these people pipe down, and the politicians down under are left exposed in the harsh light of their decision making that people will wake up from this global delusion of human exceptionalism.

The bold bit here sums up perfectly what's going on; while I do believe desires for power and control by those in charge exist, I think the human exceptionalism mindset is the bigger factor here, as we simply cannot come to terms with the concept that humans are not as great as we think we are and thus deny mistakes rather than learn them. The only way those who still cheer Australia and New Zealand will pipe down is if the virus situation does get out of control on a larger scale than they have currently (Australia still has under 1,000 deaths overall) to the put that they're silenced. I don't recall South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam being lauded anymore because things are much worse now in these countries, simply because the virus is better than we are.

I can't really fault Australia and NZ for the first few months of their response as it was early days and things looked very successful then. However once it was clear this strategy wasn't going to work long term, they needed to come up with alternatives and work out a long term strategy, which they clearly haven't, especially with their border policies not having a defined resumption of unrestricted travel yet. Yesterday a NZ minister admitted Delta had changed the game and put their strategy in doubt, but it seems too late now; in theory the emergence of the "Kent" variant as it was known back then, and the arrival of vaccines alongside this, should have been the latest both AU and NZ needed to realise reality.

 

[nlogax]

Interesting article from the NZ perspective. More power to New Zealanders if most of them feel this way, but who knows if that's actually the case?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-jacindas-mysterious-socialist-hermit-kingdom

...Also apparently, some British columnists believe New Zealand has become “a mysterious socialist hermit kingdom”. But we’ve led infinitely freer lives over the past 18 months. On the Oxford Covid-19 Stringency Index, they’ve had – crudely speaking – 60% restricted lives for most of that time, while we have seldom been over 20%. We have lockdowns, but they’re generally short and sharp.

 

[Bantamzen]

Interesting article from the NZ perspective. More power to New Zealanders if most of them feel this way, but who knows if that's actually the case?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-jacindas-mysterious-socialist-hermit-kingdom

But they are still having lockdowns, and they still can't figure out how to stop them (hint: vaccines).

 

[Freightmaster]

Interesting article from the NZ perspective. More power to New Zealanders if most of them feel this way, but who knows if that's actually the case?

From what I have read, I think the big difference is that the vast majority of New Zealanders and Australians
(with the obvious exception of those with close relatives living abroad) are nowhere near as bothered about
foreign travel/holidays as we are in the UK/EU. Because of this, I can indeed believe that they are happy to
keep living live their current "hermit" lifestyle indefinitely in exchange for keeping the deadly virus out...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-jacindas-mysterious-socialist-hermit-kingdom

From the article:

Yes, we can be sleepy little hobbits, less protective of our civil liberties than the British. But when infringements are proportionate to the harm they seek to prevent, and governments act competently, citizens are right to be trusting....
...In short, our coronavirus response has been that rarest of things, a win-win-win situation.

...but that article came across as quite arrogant/condescending to me - "win/win situation" indeed...






MARK

 

[kristiang85]

From what I have read, I think the big difference is that the vast majority of New Zealanders and Australians
(with the obvious exception of those with close relatives living abroad) are nowhere near as bothered about
foreign travel/holidays as we are in the UK/EU. Because of this, I can indeed believe that they are happy to
keep living live their current "hermit" lifestyle indefinitely in exchange for keeping the deadly virus out...

I think this is a good point. I was amazed at how many Aussies I met when I was there who had never been abroad; I think the offical number was around 40%. Even of that final 60%, many would have just gone to Bali (which is the equivalent of us going to the Costa del Sol) or New Zealand.

The figure for the UK who's never been abroad is around 10%.

I guess it is pretty obvious why this is the case - in the UK we have very cheap and close air, rail and sea links to Europe, and terrible weather much of the year, whereas in Australia there's less of a weather reason to leave, and getting anywhere that isn't Australia is expensive and needs a longer trip than just a weekend.

I'm not as au fait with New Zealand, but I presume this is a similar case (and their hot weather travel would tend to be Australia).

 

[nlogax]

From what I have read, I think the big difference is that the vast majority of New Zealanders and Australians
(with the obvious exception of those with close relatives living abroad) are nowhere near as bothered about
foreign travel/holidays as we are in the UK/EU. Because of this, I can indeed believe that they are happy to
keep living live their current "hermit" lifestyle indefinitely in exchange for keeping the deadly virus out...

If that's their preference then great. Who are we to judge? We live on a small, miserable, damp pile of islands and it's in our nature to escape it as much as we can. Australia and New Zealand.. different ball of wax. I didn't see it as at all condescending, more from someone content in their lot.

What was missing from the article was any acknowledgement of the financial impact to NZ of nixing any and all international tourism. There must be bean counters at NZ Treasury who are shaking their heads in disbelief at this continued policy.

 

[yorksrob]

If that's their preference then great. Who are we to judge? We live on a small, miserable, damp pile of islands and it's in our nature to escape it as much as we can. Australia and New Zealand.. different ball of wax. I didn't see it as at all condescending, more from someone content in their lot.

What was missing from the article was any acknowledgement of the financial impact to NZ of nixing any and all international tourism. There must be bean counters at NZ Treasury who are shaking their heads in disbelief at this continued policy.

We have a very nice pile of islands, thank you very much, and plenty of us are happy to enjoy them without jetting off at every opportunity.

As for New Zealand, they may well still have dodged a bullet, providing they get on with the vaccine roll out sharpish. The non-clinical interventions are pretty rubbish against the Delta variant.

 

[nlogax]

We have a very nice pile of islands, thank you very much, and plenty of us are happy to enjoy them without jetting off at every opportunity.

Good for you.

As for New Zealand, they may well still have dodged a bullet, providing they get on with the vaccine roll out sharpish. The non-clinical interventions are pretty rubbish against the Delta variant.

The vaccine slowness appears to be a problem for them. Still not clear to me why they were so slow off the mark, unless it was down to cold hard cash or a lack of sway with pharmaceutical companies.

 

[kristiang85]

We have a very nice pile of islands, thank you very much, and plenty of us are happy to enjoy them without jetting off at every opportunity.

Wouldn't you prefer the rest of us to jet off at every opportunity so you don't get gouged for prices or are stuck queuing for an hour just to see the summit of a mountain, because everybody is stuck here?

 

[Freightmaster]

Still not clear to me why they were so slow off the mark, unless it was down to cold hard cash or a lack of sway with pharmaceutical companies.

I can't find it now, but I remember reading an interview with Jacinda Ardern a few months ago where she explained
that NZ didn't want to be seen to placing large vaccine orders at a time when other countries with high hospitalisations
and deaths were struggling to source enough doses.

While that is a commendable attitude to take, surely a prime minister's overriding priority at all times should be the
wellbeing of their own population, rather than worrying about potential moral dilemmas?




MARK

 

[yorksrob]

Wouldn't you prefer the rest of us to jet off at every opportunity so you don't get gouged for prices or are stuck queuing for an hour just to see the summit of a mountain, because everybody is stuck here?

That is indeed a bonus.

It gets my dander up when people have to denigrate Blighty though.

 

[DustyBin]

I can't find it now, but I remember reading an interview with Jacinda Ardern a few months ago where she explained
that NZ didn't want to be seen to placing large vaccine orders at a time when other countries with high hospitalisations
and deaths were struggling to source enough doses.

While that is a commendable attitude to take, surely a prime minister's overriding priority at all times should be the
wellbeing of their own population, rather than worrying about potential moral dilemmas?




MARK

Cough cough virtue signalling cough cough….

 

[bramling]

We have a very nice pile of islands, thank you very much, and plenty of us are happy to enjoy them without jetting off at every opportunity.

As for New Zealand, they may well still have dodged a bullet, providing they get on with the vaccine roll out sharpish. The non-clinical interventions are pretty rubbish against the Delta variant.

Well, we did have a nice pile of islands, but tell that to a friend of mine who has just had a nightmare couple of days trying to visit a couple of places - inflated hotel prices, and 4 hours stuck on the A34 thanks to an accident then having an argument getting in somewhere thanks to missing the timed admission slot.

I don’t do foreign holidays, but I sure wish they come back at the soonest possible moment. The trouble this year is there’s loads of people packing out attractions who aren’t really that interested in being where they are, just they’ve picked something arbitrary as something to do. If one is going to visit an attraction, how about being a bit interested in it, rather than just treating it as some kind of playground! The lizard spotting is rather refreshing by its originality.

I was having a similar conversation at work with a tree surgeon the other day, he lives in Devon but works all over. “I work over the summer to avoid what we down there call the grockle tourists”.

 

[Bantamzen]

That is indeed a bonus.

It gets my dander up when people have to denigrate Blighty though.

Its not necessarily a case of people denigrating the UK, as discussed below.

Well, we did have a nice pile of islands, but tell that to a friend of mine who has just had a nightmare couple of days trying to visit a couple of places - inflated hotel prices, and 4 hours stuck on the A34 thanks to an accident then having an argument getting in somewhere thanks to missing the timed admission slot.

I don’t do foreign holidays, but I sure wish they come back at the soonest possible moment. The trouble this year is there’s loads of people packing out attractions who aren’t really that interested in being where they are, just they’ve picked something arbitrary as something to do. If one is going to visit an attraction, how about being a bit interested in it, rather than just treating it as some kind of playground! The lizard spotting is rather refreshing by its originality.

I was having a similar conversation at work with a tree surgeon the other day, he lives in Devon but works all over. “I work over the summer to avoid what we down there call the grockle tourists”.

A couple of months ago my wife and I looked into the possibility of having a long weekend in Whitby. We've been there many times before, mainly for the Goth Weekends. But we thought one last foray before winter falls upon us would be nice. So I started to search but it wasn't long before I was using the typical Yorkshire phrase of "How blinking much?". I had expected some rises but in many cases they had risen by almost double, to the point that some cottages we'd previously rented would cost us almost the same as our entire holiday we have booked for Kefalonia next year. And that would be before the cost of getting to Whitby!

When hotels and holiday let owners start putting prices up to that of a holiday (including flights and transfers) in Greece you do start to ask yourself the question, do we choose the expensive "staycation" (I hate that stupid phrase BTW) with unpredictable weather, or the jet south to much more guaranteed weather? I know the weather shouldn't be the only factor in looking for a great holiday, but it helps especially given that summer seems to be at an end here. Simply put, going abroad can still be better value for money than staying here, even with all the stupid testing. And hopefully now that the government are cracking down on prices, this gravy train will quickly derail & hopefully let the government back away from it.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, we did have a nice pile of islands, but tell that to a friend of mine who has just had a nightmare couple of days trying to visit a couple of places - inflated hotel prices, and 4 hours stuck on the A34 thanks to an accident then having an argument getting in somewhere thanks to missing the timed admission slot.

I don’t do foreign holidays, but I sure wish they come back at the soonest possible moment. The trouble this year is there’s loads of people packing out attractions who aren’t really that interested in being where they are, just they’ve picked something arbitrary as something to do. If one is going to visit an attraction, how about being a bit interested in it, rather than just treating it as some kind of playground! The lizard spotting is rather refreshing by its originality.

I was having a similar conversation at work with a tree surgeon the other day, he lives in Devon but works all over. “I work over the summer to avoid what we down there call the grockle tourists”.

I do seem to have avoided the worst of the tourist hubbub. My week in Cornwall was soon after the relaxation before things had taken off (although I sadly didn't miss out on the rain)

I haven't had a week off since, but I have been doing a four day week and using the weekend to visit my favourite places in the North. I have to say that most of them may be a little bit busier, but aren't massively different from normal. I haven't had difficulty finding a nice pub to have a beer in anyway !

 

[Ianno87]

Well, we did have a nice pile of islands, but tell that to a friend of mine who has just had a nightmare couple of days trying to visit a couple of places - inflated hotel prices, and 4 hours stuck on the A34 thanks to an accident then having an argument getting in somewhere thanks to missing the timed admission slot.

I don’t do foreign holidays, but I sure wish they come back at the soonest possible moment. The trouble this year is there’s loads of people packing out attractions who aren’t really that interested in being where they are, just they’ve picked something arbitrary as something to do. If one is going to visit an attraction, how about being a bit interested in it, rather than just treating it as some kind of playground! The lizard spotting is rather refreshing by its originality.

I was having a similar conversation at work with a tree surgeon the other day, he lives in Devon but works all over. “I work over the summer to avoid what we down there call the grockle tourists”.

I suggest getting used to it, given that leaving the EU has created more hoops to jump through to go on a foreign holiday.

 

[DustyBin]

I suggest getting used to it, given that leaving the EU has created more hoops to jump through to go on a foreign holiday.

Said hoops aren’t really going to put people off though are they, and I think you know it.

 

[Ianno87]

Said hoops aren’t really going to put people off though are they, and I think you know it.

They will. Not quite as free borders as before. It'll add up.

 

[DustyBin]

They will. Not quite as free borders as before. It'll add up.

I’m sceptical to be honest, whilst inconvenient there’s nothing onerous (to me anyway). Covid related hoops on the other hand….

 

[nw1]

They will. Not quite as free borders as before. It'll add up.

Don't get me started on Brexit - if it's a simple short holiday it's probably fine, but if you want an extended stay you run into problems. But will shut up now.

 

[brad465]

New Zealand cases have gone up by 62 and there are now 210 active community cases, 8 days after the snap lockdown came in for 1 case. We're now entering the period where lockdowns were believed to be having an impact on transmission, but now Delta is here we'll find out if that remains the case.

Australia is also adding nearly 1,000 new cases today (993), a new record high. Also looking at the graph of cases vs deaths in AU, there's evidence to suggest Delta is less deadly, as, when compared to Melbourne's 100+ day lockdown wave last year, less deaths are being recorded despite more cases, even though only 30% of over 16s are fully vaccinated:

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[takno]

New Zealand cases have gone up by 62 and there are now 210 active community cases, 8 days after the snap lockdown came in for 1 case. We're now entering the period where lockdowns were believed to be having an impact on transmission, but now Delta is here we'll find out if that remains the case.

Australia is also adding nearly 1,000 new cases today (993), a new record high. Also looking at the graph of cases vs deaths in AU, there's evidence to suggest Delta is less deadly, as, when compared to Melbourne's 100+ day lockdown wave last year, less deaths are being recorded despite more cases, even though only 30% of over 16s are fully vaccinated:

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 101676
View attachment 101677

On the lower numbers of deaths, it may be less to do with Delta being less deadly and more to do with the 30% of people vaccinated being heavily skewed towards the elderly or otherwise vulnerable

 

[Smidster]

The reward for getting vaccinated in New South Wales?

The State approves an extra hour of recreation for you.

More freedoms for fully vaccinated in NSW: What you need to know

www.9news.com.au

World has truly gone mad

 

[Bantamzen]

The reward for getting vaccinated in New South Wales?

The State approves an extra hour of recreation for you.

More freedoms for fully vaccinated in NSW: What you need to know

www.9news.com.au

World has truly gone mad

I have no words, well maybe one. Dystopian.

 

[DustyBin]

The reward for getting vaccinated in New South Wales?

The State approves an extra hour of recreation for you.

More freedoms for fully vaccinated in NSW: What you need to know

www.9news.com.au

World has truly gone mad

That really is bonkers!

 

[kristiang85]

On the lower numbers of deaths, it may be less to do with Delta being less deadly and more to do with the 30% of people vaccinated being heavily skewed towards the elderly or otherwise vulnerable

If this is the case, then it shows that the original UK plan of vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable would have been sufficient and we could have had "freedom" by spring, rather than mid summer.

I would say its a combination of both though. Since delta took hold in the UK, symptoms seem to be far less serious, even in the non or partially vaccinated. And it's in line with general thought about the evolution of viruses.