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What is the subsidised cost per passenger mile on our system?

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Diplodicus

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Quite a lot of the posts on this forum are about speculative lines either to be constructed or brought back into service. There is usually some general discussion about passenger numbers but I see very little quantitative estimates of the actual number of people that are anticipated as being moved on such lines.

Is it possible to generate a small number of planning assumptions showing "cost per passenger mile" perhaps broken down into:

* high speed?
* metro/suburban?
* cross-country?
* rural?
 
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Craig1122

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It's a pretty complex subject really which is why any serious scheme will have some pretty detailed modelling carried out of likely passenger numbers. It's easy to speculate/dream on a forum like this but coming up with figures for any particular scheme will take a lot of hard work and even then isn't always accurate.

There are also two separate lots of costs to worry about. One is the cost of construction but you then also have to work out if a line would require ongoing subsidy to operate. There are some rough cost per mile estimates for construction around but in reality it will vary hugely depending on the amount of engineering required. For ongoing operating costs you have to get an idea of how much fare revenue you will generate & set that against direct costs like trains & drivers but also ongoing maintenance and any central costs incurred by Network Rail, TOC's etc.

It's a few years old but if you Google "lewes uckfield reopening feasibility study" the first result is a study of one line that is often suggested for reopening from 2008 which runs to 98 pages and gives an idea of the kind of work involved.
 

Wynd

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Scotrail has made an admirable attempt at this. It makes for terrifying reading as a Scottish citizen who loves travelling by train.

I am unaware of the UK figure.
 

6Gman

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Scotrail has made an admirable attempt at this. It makes for terrifying reading as a Scottish citizen who loves travelling by train.

I am unaware of the UK figure.
Some years ago I had a line by line breakdown for provincial services on the former LMR.

The word "terrifying" certainly applied to quite a few of them.
 

Bertie the bus

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bluenoxid

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Thank you fellow forumites. Seems that minicabs/Uber is the way to go?

Depends on the volumes and local road capacity.

At the moment, some of the negative externalities for minicabs and Uber are not charged for and losses are loaded on to other organisations/people.
 

AM9

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Also those who push the current cheapness of Uber seem oblivious of the likely hike in prices once any alternative is abandoned.
 

Llandudno

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I don't think it has gone through all the phases but an estimate for one line which has an active thread at the moment (Clitheroe - Hellifield) is over £1 million subsidy per year for an estimated 80,000 journey. So about £12.50 per passenger journey. The level of subsidy is expected to be slightly higher than revenue.

Probably a lower per passenger subsidy than many of the DRT/Fflecsi bus schemes springing up all over the country…!
 

lachlan

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Thank you fellow forumites. Seems that minicabs/Uber is the way to go?
The Far North line costs around £25 per journey in subsidies. Given the large distances involved the cost of a taxi would probably be significantly more than £25 so I think we're better off financially keeping the railway going.
 

Dr Day

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The Far North line costs around £25 per journey in subsidies. Given the large distances involved the cost of a taxi would probably be significantly more than £25 so I think we're better off financially keeping the railway going.
Buses would be less, and for many journeys be quicker. As discussed on various other threads.
 

dk1

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Buses would be less, and for many journeys be quicker. As discussed on various other threads.
No thanks. That’ll set off the travel sickness. £25 is a fair subsidy trade off for having the train option.
 

lachlan

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Buses would be less, and for many journeys be quicker. As discussed on various other threads.
There is already a (commercially operated?) bus service along the route which is quicker for some journeys. A quick plot in Google Maps indicates that bus service calling at similar intermedate points to the railway would take longer than the train. Perhaps as discussed before you could have more local services feeding into the Inverness-Wick bus route, but again the journeys would be slower and less convenient as they'd now require a change. Sure running buses would be cheaper, but you also have to consider the reduced income that would result from people put off making the journey due to the switch from rail to bus and the need to change, and those who switch to private car.
No thanks. That’ll set off the travel sickness. £25 is a fair subsidy trade off for having the train option.
Agreed. The railway will always be a safer and more comfortable option to the coach.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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There's this statement in the ORR data for 2020-21, on p16 of its annual digest of railway finances.
"On average, government funding of the operational railway was £1.27 per passenger kilometre in England, £2.39 per passenger kilometre in Scotland and £2.39 per passenger kilometre in Wales."

The chances are that a Far North journey carries a lot more subsidy than £25 per passenger.
Government support was somewhere between 80-90% of the rail industry's costs in 2020-21 (p17 of the digest), higher in Wales/Scotland.
This was at the height of the pandemic restrictions; it will be less than that now but still nothing like the pre-covid value.

The equivalent pre-covid figures (2019-20) for government support per passenger km were:
England - 8.5p
Scotland - 20.5p
Wales - 24.0p
These figures disguise large differentials in subsidy for particular services.
Generally intercity and London commuter services will require less subsidy than regional/local ones.
 

Craig1122

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If we're talking operational subsidy only then from memory pre covid Island Line had the highest subsidy at about 50p per mile. SWT/SWR was the only franchise to show a net positive.

Some things to bear in mind:

To get a true picture you need to measure subsidy to Network Rail as well as the operator. At privatisation the intention was that subsidy would go to the operator. The logic was that they were closest to the customer so best placed to spend it wisely. That's changed over the years with more going to NR.

It's very difficult to break down subsidy line by line as it's not always clear where costs and revenue should be allocated. For example what proportion of central costs should a particular line bear? In what proportion should a longer distance fare be allocated to different parts of the journey? And if you close a lightly used line do you then lose revenue for longer journeys as well? These arguments have been rehearsed many times over in relation to Beeching.

Finally it's generally accepted that road transport doesn't cover all its external costs, this means not just road maintenance and building but stuff like the cost of policing and healthcare for accidents. So while you could say it's cheaper to move everyone in taxis instead of rail it might only look that way because they're effectively subsided as well!
 

Donny_m

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Also those who push the current cheapness of Uber seem oblivious of the likely hike in prices once any alternative is abandoned.

Already happened. Barely anybody with a smartphone calls a taxi rank. And the prices are no longer any cheaper than an old school taxi.
 

Diplodicus

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I recently spent a few days in London and Uber was significantly less expensive than an old school minicab and a fraction of the "Black Cab" rate. I thought Uber was brilliant in my (limited mobilty) experience.
 

The Ham

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If we're talking operational subsidy only then from memory pre covid Island Line had the highest subsidy at about 50p per mile. SWT/SWR was the only franchise to show a net positive.

Some things to bear in mind:

To get a true picture you need to measure subsidy to Network Rail as well as the operator. At privatisation the intention was that subsidy would go to the operator. The logic was that they were closest to the customer so best placed to spend it wisely. That's changed over the years with more going to NR.

It's very difficult to break down subsidy line by line as it's not always clear where costs and revenue should be allocated. For example what proportion of central costs should a particular line bear? In what proportion should a longer distance fare be allocated to different parts of the journey? And if you close a lightly used line do you then lose revenue for longer journeys as well? These arguments have been rehearsed many times over in relation to Beeching.

Finally it's generally accepted that road transport doesn't cover all its external costs, this means not just road maintenance and building but stuff like the cost of policing and healthcare for accidents. So while you could say it's cheaper to move everyone in taxis instead of rail it might only look that way because they're effectively subsided as well!

Although some of the subsidy to NR will be to do with enhancements to the rail infrastructure, some of which will lead to lower costs (such as electrification) whilst some others will lead to more capacity (both of which change the equation for future years).

I recently spent a few days in London and Uber was significantly less expensive than an old school minicab and a fraction of the "Black Cab" rate. I thought Uber was brilliant in my (limited mobilty) experience.

Uber is trying to tempt people from public transport, if that doesn't exist then process would be closer to the other modes.

I suspect that someone is subsidising the London Uber costs, as I doubt that minicabs are making significantly more profit (as the cars would be broadly the same cost to run) so it boils down to staff pay, level of profit, efficiency of cars (i.e. how much are they waiting about for) or outside funding.

You'd get few drivers if they are getting paid too much less than minicabs. Whilst Uber can make less profit per trip and will do very well overall it's unlikely to make a noticeable difference. Likewise Uber can make improvements to how many customers each driver gets, again it's not likely to be too significant. Now combined the above could make it noticeably cheaper. However it does appear that Uber are trying to focus on tempting people out of public transport by using outside funding.

The problem with any car based system is that you end up with almost all much congestion as you would have with privately owned cars (a bit less as there's a reduced need for on street parking).

Anyone that says that Uber or other tech based automated vehicle system will be able to replace public transport is probably exaggerating the benefits.

In reality there just isn't space for too many people to travel in their own little box when currently dozens or even hundreds of people are sharing a bus or a train. As the space inefficiencies would rule it out.

If you look at the Tesla system in Las Vegas and compare it to a tube train and you'd start to understand why it'll never compare in capacity.

At the weekend I joined a Jubilee line train at Waterloo, just in the doors I bordered at there was at least 8 people. The previous train was 3 minutes before the following 3 minutes later. Whilst it would be possible to have more vehicles than doors in that timeframe, the loading time of each car (especially given I was traveling with children) would be much higher (requiring a much much larger, and therefore much more expensive) station complex.

Tesla say they can reduce the tunneling costs (which they could do), however talk to anyone involved in Crossrail or HS2 and they'll tell you the big costs are not the tunnels it's the station boxes.

As such for lower level public transport (i.e. to get something working where there is nothing now) to compete with buses (especially if the buses aren't that week loaded) it may work, however if a full metro system is needed then governments are likely to just be wasting their money (which is ultimately our money from taxes).
 

Craig1122

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Overall Uber makes massive losses so is effectively propped up by money from investors hoping for better times ahead:


It's hard to see how any substantial operating savings can be made so the only realistic option will be for them to push rates up. At which point it will be far less competitive with public transport, normal cabs etc. If they haven't managed to put them out of business first...
 

InOban

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uber fares are about to rise 20% as they are forced to add vat.
 

JamesT

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Overall Uber makes massive losses so is effectively propped up by money from investors hoping for better times ahead:


It's hard to see how any substantial operating savings can be made so the only realistic option will be for them to push rates up. At which point it will be far less competitive with public transport, normal cabs etc. If they haven't managed to put them out of business first...
It's been suggested that Uber have been very keen on autonomous cars as then they can strip out the fairly large operating cost of paying the driver.
 

Diplodicus

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Meanwhile... I'll keep using them until my own cost/benefit tilts from convenient and at reasonable cost to tooo expensive.
 
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