What should/will happen to Paddington post Crossrail/OOC?

[Horizon22]

At the moment Paddington has 13 platforms, 2 of which in the off-peak are used solely by TfL Rail. It is obviously the terminus of the GWML although some would argue its one of the most distant London termini compared to the centre. It was the 11th busiest London station last year (although likely an outlier).

When TfL Rail essentially becomes the Elizabeth Line and runs through the Central section & bypasses mainline Paddington, for anyone in the inner Thames Valley that needed to change at Paddington to get further into London, that need is removed - you could even change at Ealing Broadway if you were on a slightly faster Didcot Parkway - Paddington service. Obviously past Reading, changing at Paddington for Crossrail will be the natural course of action. The station is already a bit constrained with the TfL Rail services still running (Heathrow Express on one platform only most of the day) and the removal of these services from the NR station would allow a bit of breathing room and scope to amend the high-speed service a little. However the opening of Old Oak Common in 5-6 years seems like it would be totally different.

Old Oak Common is meant to have a number of main & relief line platform faces and I believe the intention is for every Crossrail & GWR (and HS2 for what its worth) service to stop at Old Oak Common. This should provide a much easier interchange for passengers from beyond Reading as well as HS2 and passengers from Heathrow. At this point the reason from going all the way to Paddington diminishes - the interchange to C. London is much easier for basically everyone, people want to go to other parts of London also have better connections (except perhaps the Southeastern / Southwestern part for which the Bakerloo may still be the best) and the station isn't that close to the major London landmarks, and the Relief Line service can't be increased with all the Crossrail paths.

You'll then have a 13 platform station, which might essentially become a glorified turnback. Is this fine? Will there be a more critical evaluation of the 4tph Heathrow Express paths to increase high-speed services? Will some platforms become redundant and used for other purposes? Whilst the same argument could be used for Liverpool St, it's proximity to The City I think means it is less relevant.

 

[WelshBluebird]

It really depends on how slow or quick those Crossrail journeys are and where in London specifically am I going.

Is changing at Reading / Old Oak Common and getting a slower train into central London going to be quicker or slower than going through to Paddington and then getting the tube? If I am going to anywhere near Paddington (including Hyde Park) then I'd still want to go to Paddington regardless. If I am going to a fair bit of London that is better served by the Tube (mainly anything specifically on the Bakerloo, District or Circle / Hammersmith and City - though for those two it really depends specifically where due to the eastern overlap with Crossrail) I will probably still want to go to Paddington too.

Also I suspect part of it will also depend on how GWR as a longer distance operator manages in this post COVID world. Do the extra Bristol fasts come back / get added to? Etc.

 

[Horizon22]

Is changing at Reading / Old Oak Common and getting a slower train into central London going to be quicker or slower than going through to Paddington and then getting the tube? If I am going to anywhere near Paddington (including Hyde Park) then I'd still want to go to Paddington regardless. If I am going to a fair bit of London that is better served by the Tube (mainly anything specifically on the Bakerloo, District or Circle / Hammersmith and City - though for those two it really depends specifically where due to the eastern overlap with Crossrail) I will probably still want to go to Paddington too.

The Crossrail entrance is going to be miles away from the H&C / Circle line entrance so I'd suggest that's not going to be a very useful change. As I stated, I can see some benefit of the Bakerloo, but many of those people are finishing the central London journey that way. Other SE journeys will likely be quicker via Bond St or Tottenham Court Rd though I appreciate 2 changes is an interchange penalty.

Changing at Reading is obviously not going to be a good idea unless you want to trundle into London!

 

[swt_passenger]

AIUI the current Heathrow Express is limited to one platform temporarily, with all the layover being at the other end, so I expect they’ll immediately go back to a two platform allocation. Other than that I’d have thought they’d simply spread the GWR service further around the station. The shortest platform, is it 14, maybe won’t see a lot of use if the GWR EMU services run at full length…

 

[Horizon22]

AIUI the current Heathrow Express is limited to one platform temporarily, with all the layover being at the other end, so I expect they’ll immediately go back to a two platform allocation. Other than that I’d have thought they’d simply spread the GWR service further around the station. The shortest platform, is it 14, maybe won’t see a lot of use if the GWR EMU services run at full length…

Maximum 8-car into P14. Yes post Crossrail running through, HeX will be back to 2 platform operation it's just a matter of when...

To be honest P14 could probably be dispensed with once Crossrail fully opens; even now it only really sees the GWR Didcot Parkway service and peak specials.

 

[JonathanH]

Maximum 8-car into P14. Yes post Crossrail running through, HeX will be back to 2 platform operation it's just a matter of when...

To be honest P14 could probably be dispensed with once Crossrail fully opens; even now it only really sees the GWR Didcot Parkway service and peak specials.

Nothing wrong with putting a 5-car 80x in platform 14, especially if there is more long distance use of the high numbered platforms.

Once platforms 8 and 9 are gated and the construction at the end of platforms 11 and 12 is finished, the access routes are going to be a bit different in any case - eg 14 will be predominantly accessed via platform 12 rather than going over the bridge.

 

[Horizon22]

Nothing wrong with putting a 5-car 80x in platform 14, especially if there is more long distance use of the high numbered platforms.

Once platforms 8 and 9 are gated and the construction at the end of platforms 11 and 12 is finished, the access routes are going to be a bit different in any case - eg 14 will be predominantly accessed via platform 12 rather than going over the bridge.

Sure but I still can't see this as ever really required with the exception of engineering works as P10-12 become more available and are more flexible anyway.

 

[swt_passenger]

Once platforms 8 and 9 are gated and the construction at the end of platforms 11 and 12 is finished, the access routes are going to be a bit different in any case - eg 14 will be predominantly accessed via platform 12 rather than going over the bridge.

Are there still more changes going on now then? I wasn’t aware but haven’t been through Paddington for a while. Could you summarise what’s happening if you have time please?

 

[JonathanH]

Are there still more changes going on now then? I wasn’t aware but haven’t been through Paddington for a while. Could you summarise what’s happening if you have time please?

The gating of platforms 8 and 9 isn't in progress but an application for planning permission was made and approved earlier this year.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/ticket-gates-on-platforms-8-and-9-at-paddington.216051/

Platforms 11 and 12 were reduced slightly in length and the ends surrounded by a full height hoarding at some point this year, I think for work on the same building project which has closed the old Bakerloo line entrance from the mainline station. This is part of the Paddington Square development on the old post office site I think, related to the increase in passenger flows.

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/...ind-the-shard-is-reshaping-london-13-10-2021/

In west London, a new addition to the skyline is set to transform the area around one of the capital’s most famous railway stations. Paul Thompson reports

Project: Paddington Square
Client: Sellar for Great Western Developments
Main contractor: Mace
Contract type: Design & Build
Contract value: £350m
Start date: May 2018
Completion date: Summer 2022

Of all of London’s major rail transport hubs, Paddington is arguably the least visually appealing.

Although the brilliant engineer Isambard Kingdom Brunel and his architect associate Matthew Digby Wyatt did a fine job on the station itself, over the years its expansion and the ever-changing built environment surrounding it have done Paddington no favours. Passengers from destinations west of London are currently faced with a stark choice: disappear down the darkened throat of the London Underground ticket hall, or follow the whiff of travellers’ freshly-lit cigarettes and trudge up the station’s former carriage ramp to Praed Street.

https://committees.westminster.gov.uk/documents/s20606/ITEM 01 - PADDINGTON SORTING DELIVERY 31 LONDON STREET 128-142 PRAED STREET LONDON STREET PART.pdf

3. The developer to meet the cost of funding the procurement, management and delivery (including all necessary consents) of the following works within Paddington Station, including namely; i) tunnels refurbishment, ii)redesign of servicing area to western end of platform 1; iii) removal and replacement of buffer stops and adjacent plant to platforms 11 & 12

 

[Horizon22]

Are there still more changes going on now then? I wasn’t aware but haven’t been through Paddington for a while. Could you summarise what’s happening if you have time please?

What he says is basically the summary; there has been a long-term ambition to put barriers on 8-9 and 11-12 by the concourse is still undergoing remedial work.

 

[swt_passenger]

Thanks both of you.

 

[JonathanH]

What he says is basically the summary; there has been a long-term ambition to put barriers on 8-9 and 11-12 by the concourse is still undergoing remedial work.

Does the 11-12 work need to be completed first before the 8-9 barrier work can be started to allow for the additional passenger flows via the platform 12 escalators that closure of the 8-9 route will lead to?

 

[Tio Terry]

If/when Crossrail central section is closed by something like the inevitable unattended suitcase so that all the Crossrail trains get terminated at Paddington it will become very busy indeed. I'm sue somebody will have risk assessed the probable result and passenger flows for when that happens.

 

[HST43257]

If/when Crossrail central section is closed by something like the inevitable unattended suitcase so that all the Crossrail trains get terminated at Paddington it will become very busy indeed. I'm sue somebody will have risk assessed the probable result and passenger flows for when that happens.

I’d hope a contingency plan of sorts had been created, with some terminating at Paddington high level and some at Paddington low level (reversing into and out of turnback)

 

[cle]

There is still activity around Paddington. People act as if it is an actual backwater. There are tons of companies in the area - and it's still being developed. It's an attractive location for companies which rely on Heathrow a lot. It also has a lot of tourist use (plenty of cheaper hotels and B&Bs in the area), it has St Mary's - and is a short walk to Lancaster Gate/Hyde Park and to Edgware Road.

That said, glorified turnback is close to the bone. It won't be what it was, especially if the Overground links to OOC follow too, and Londoners from all directions use the WLL/NLLs to go west, instead of Paddington. Notably anyone south of the river passing through Clapham Junction. Could be a huge flow.

I could see it not using all of its platforms. Kings Cross has had similar and rationalization x lengthening took place. One idea I read here was a third H&C/Circle platform - to allow shuttle turns from Hammersmith, or indeed the other direction - to provide a higher frequency.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can't see it being empty. People like grand termini, and Paddington, now the diesel fumes and stench of human excrement has gone, is about as grand as they get, not to mention the excellent facilities. Marylebone for instance is well-used despite being notoriously awkward to get to and despite many trains being accessible via a change at Harrow on the Hill from the Met.

I'd be even more likely to go there if it meant best choice of seats!

 

[Horizon22]

I can't see it being empty. People like grand termini, and Paddington, now the diesel fumes and stench of human excrement has gone, is about as grand as they get, not to mention the excellent facilities. Marylebone for instance is well-used despite being notoriously awkward to get to and despite many trains being accessible via a change at Harrow on the Hill from the Met.

I'd be even more likely to go there if it meant best choice of seats!

I can see what you mean there - same reason people tended to go to Charing Cross or Cannon Street instead of London Bridge!

 

[tomuk]

I can't see it being empty. People like grand termini, and Paddington, now the diesel fumes and stench of human excrement has gone, is about as grand as they get, not to mention the excellent facilities. Marylebone for instance is well-used despite being notoriously awkward to get to and despite many trains being accessible via a change at Harrow on the Hill from the Met.

I'd be even more likely to go there if it meant best choice of seats!

Only 2tph of the 10 tph that leave Marylebone go anywhere near Harrow On the Hill.

 

[cle]

If they were really ambitious, they could fill Paddington with Chiltern services (less Aylesbury) - use the platforms that way, and consolidate some land on the Marylebone side. And give Paddington a new purpose, handling all services via Wycombe. Oxford rounders anyone?

Would of course require a fair bit of work in terms of running lines, OOC itself and the NNL up to Ruislip... but this is the speculative sub-forum after all.

And then Marylebone is emptied (Aylesbury is a shuttle to Amersham or maybe Harrow OTH - has the platforms and more Met trains. Harrow could do Chesham shuttles too) - and the running lines might even be useful for running more Met services. Wembley Stadium and Northolt Park might be troublesome though.

 

[JonathanH]

Would of course require a fair bit of work in terms of running lines, OOC itself and the NNL up to Ruislip... but this is the speculative sub-forum after all.

Two grade separated junctions (or some clever use of a dive under and the carriage line to repurpose platform 1). Upheaval would be too significant, speculative idea or not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Marylebone could I guess be redeveloped as something else, land value there is massive. But is there going to be enough capacity in Paddington freed up to take the whole Chiltern service? If not it wouldn't really be worth it; a split service would be a right pain.

 

[SynthD]

The (admittedly pre Covid) Crossrail projections I saw were that only a minority would leave HS2 and GWR for Crossrail at OOC. Paddington was expected to be back to as it was then (2018?) within several standard years of growth. The boring answer is that the space given by moving downstairs is already spoken for.

Chiltern have no connection to Paddington and will not.

 

[HSTEd]

Marylebone could I guess be redeveloped as something else, land value there is massive. But is there going to be enough capacity in Paddington freed up to take the whole Chiltern service? If not it wouldn't really be worth it; a split service would be a right pain.

Well with the fall off in peak commuter capacity requirements you could give everything that was not an IEP in Paddington to Crossrail - there are plenty of terminators at Paddington (are they all going to OOC?) in the current plan.

Once you do that you have significantly more capacity to take Marylebone trains.

 

[JonathanH]

Once you do that you have significantly more capacity to take Marylebone trains.

It isn't Paddington capacity that is going to be the issue. How are you supposing that the trains get from one side of the Crossrail route to the other?

The idea that Marylebone is closed and the remnant High Wycombe route service runs off platform 11, 12 and 14 at Paddington post HS2 and the Covid downturn has some merits but the approach lines into Paddington for Chiltern services don't exist.

 

[HSTEd]

It isn't Paddington capacity that is going to be the issue. How are you supposing that the trains get from one side of the Crossrail route to the other?

The idea that Marylebone is closed and the remnant High Wycombe route service runs off platform 11, 12 and 14 at Paddington post HS2 and the Covid downturn has some merits but the approach lines into Paddington for Chiltern services don't exist.

In this case it is simply an argument of whether redevelopment of Marylebone and probably Wembley Stadium station, alongside some operational savings, is worth more than the cost of a flyover at Old Oak?

 

[JonathanH]

In this case it is simply an argument of whether redevelopment of Marylebone and probably Wembley Stadium station, alongside some operational savings, is worth more than the cost of a flyover at Old Oak?

Indeed, the idea is sound in the context of what we are seeing with passenger numbers, but there isn't an obvious place for that flyover or diveunder on the Old Oak site. Presumably you would be looking to see it come up either side of the relief lines and then have six lines into Paddington.

 

[Horizon22]

The (admittedly pre Covid) Crossrail projections I saw were that only a minority would leave HS2 and GWR for Crossrail at OOC. Paddington was expected to be back to as it was then (2018?) within several standard years of growth. The boring answer is that the space given by moving downstairs is already spoken for.

Chiltern have no connection to Paddington and will not.

I'm not sure why that would be the case though - if you have a simple cross platform change as opposed to getting off a GWR train, heading to the concourse, over towards P1 down the escalators and then to the Crossrail platform, it seems like a much easier option. Also by the time OOC is built, I believe some trains that terminate at Paddington (Westbourne Park) are meant to extend to OOC, which will mean a train every 4-5 minutes.

The capacity at Paddington isn't a prolem - indeed as I said in the 1st post there will be excess - the capacity issue is the Relief Lines.

As for a flyover at Old Oak Common that's rather more fanciful that just speculative! It's quite a constrained site and you'd probably be knocking down North Pole Depot. The relief line connection via Greenford has more merit but again, there's unlikely to be an extensive service possible.

 

[JonathanH]

Maybe the answer to the relief line issue is only to run 6tph off-peak west of Paddington on Crossrail like the current timetable with fewer through trains and terminate more trains in Westbourne Park sidings. Does Crossrail really need to run more than 6tph off-peak and 8tph peak west of Paddington?

 

[Horizon22]

Maybe the answer to the relief line issue is only to run 6tph off-peak west of Paddington on Crossrail like the current timetable with fewer through trains and terminate more trains in Westbourne Park sidings. Does Crossrail really need to run more than 6tph off-peak and 8tph peak west of Paddington?

I would say the Heathrow service might be a little overkill and that 2tph could go towards Chiltern lines. I'd also say 2tph could serve the current Greenford branch also - but both proposals likely require extensive electification and platform works.

 

[SynthD]

I'm not sure why that would be the case though - if you have a simple cross platform change as opposed to getting off a GWR train, heading to the concourse, over towards P1 down the escalators and then to the Crossrail platform, it seems like a much easier option. Also by the time OOC is built, I believe some trains that terminate at Paddington (Westbourne Park) are meant to extend to OOC, which will mean a train every 4-5 minutes.

It is indeed the easier option, but I think the idea is that not that many people will make the choice. Or they don’t want Crossrail.

Maybe the answer to the relief line issue is only to run 6tph off-peak west of Paddington on Crossrail like the current timetable with fewer through trains and terminate more trains in Westbourne Park sidings. Does Crossrail really need to run more than 6tph off-peak and 8tph peak west of Paddington?

They plan to step it up to 30tph in the core and 15tph west of OOC in the coming decades. The infrastructure for that is being built or planned now.