When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[PHILIPE]

The Head Buffoon has decided to face the current crisis by jetting off to a villa in Marbella for a holiday..

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The Head Buffoon has decided to face the current crisis by jetting off to a villa in Marbella for a holiday..

Perhaps he has taken a leaf out of the "Prime Minister's relaxation book" that Jim Callaghan used when he uttered that famous riposte to journalists on his return to Britain quite some years ago..."Crisis, what crisis"

What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Sunny Jim set the precedent.

 

[Busaholic]

Perhaps he has taken a leaf out of the "Prime Minister's relaxation book" that Jim Callaghan used when he uttered that famous riposte to journalists on his return to Britain quite some years ago..."Crisis, what crisis"

What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Sunny Jim set the precedent.

I'm no defender of Jim Callaghan, who should never have inherited the mantle of Labour leader and Prime Minister imo, but his return to the country was not from a holiday but a summit: it was not a good PR move to come back with such a tan, though the summit had taken place in the Tropics, to a freezing Britain!

 

[87 027]

BBC NEWS | UK Politics | 'Crisis? What crisis?'

"Crisis? What crisis?"
Three words that helped bring down the last Labour government in 1979, even though the man generally thought to have uttered them - Jim Callaghan - did not in fact do so.

"I don't think other people in the world would share the view [that] there is mounting chaos" - Jim Callaghan's actual words

But the Sun journalist who fashioned that headline caught the popular impression of a government unaware of a very serious state of affairs which had sneaked up on it.

 

[Busaholic]

BBC NEWS | UK Politics | 'Crisis? What crisis?'

I really don't think it made much difference. I was working from home at the time and caught the lunchtime news with Callaghan being waylaid by journalists at Heathrow, and the combination of a healthy tan and the withering tone he adopted in his answer said it all. Nowadays. of course, with security being a reason/excuse no journalist would have got within a quarter mile.

 

[Typhoon]

I really don't think it made much difference. I was working from home at the time and caught the lunchtime news with Callaghan being waylaid by journalists at Heathrow, and the combination of a healthy tan and the withering tone he adopted in his answer said it all.

Doesn't surprise me, humility and empathy were never his strong points. As you wrote, a couple of posts up, wrong man for the job. Buggins turn, and the Unions would support him (certainly above Healey).

 

[87 027]

There's a video of the actual interview here. Talks about having enjoyed a swim while he was away and complaining no breakfast on the flight!

 

[Typhoon]

Hopefully Johnson will have learnt from the above. Packed sunscreen factor 110, very wide brimmed hat, careful about his purchases (have his minders searched for food stores with empty shelves he can be photographed by), and check his luggage is not overweight for the trip back.

Actually, I wonder whether he will do a bit of canvassing among the ex-pats when he is out there, now that they will get the vote (at the cost of 2.5 million to us tax payers).

There's a video of the actual interview here. Talks about having enjoyed a swim while he was away and complaining no breakfast on the flight!

It's not as bad as I thought, the 'no breakfast' was clearly intended to lighten the mood. It was less 'don't panic' than some government ministers have been.

 

[Busaholic]

Hopefully Johnson will have learnt from the above. Packed sunscreen factor 110, very wide brimmed hat, careful about his purchases (have his minders searched for food stores with empty shelves he can be photographed by), and check his luggage is not overweight for the trip back.

Actually, I wonder whether he will do a bit of canvassing among the ex-pats when he is out there, now that they will get the vote (at the cost of 2.5 million to us tax payers).


It's not as bad as I thought, the 'no breakfast' was clearly intended to lighten the mood. It was less 'don't panic' than some government ministers have been.

There's a video on YouTube that I came across by accident, in a series apparently, and have quite forgotten its title or the name of the guy behind it, but it's recently shot in a large French supermarket where he was pretending to be looking for all the shortages, whereas every where the camera panned were overflowing shelves, his point being that the thing missing so obviously was ''sovereignty'' i.e. an unrelenting piss-take of how Brexit has panned out for us. If a video appears from Johnson's jaunt (it'd be breaking the habit of a lifetime if any of it paid for by him) of empty shelves I'd stake money the 'advisers' had emptied them by themselves, and if any of the goods were paid for it'd be on the British taxpayer. Can't he be taken for a close-up tour of that volcano and be left there?

 

[brad465]

In the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election (still no date for it yet), Reform UK leader Richard Tice is standing as the candidate, trying to counter many of the current Government policies that are not considered traditional Conservative ones. Given the leader is standing, they'll be taking this very seriously, but I don't see them winning it. What might happen though is we get an idea of how much of the current Tory party support base is prepared to vote for Reform to voice opposition to the current Government's policies/behaviour. Of course if Reform garner enough votes to split it enough that someone else (most likely Labour going by the 2019 election result in this seat) wins it, that'll be very embarrassing for the Tories, but given the latter got nearly 65% last time, it's a tall order:

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1454402834703822852

And... we off! Today we launched our Old Bexley & Sidcup #ByElection campaign with party leader and by-election candidate @TiceRichard, who is standing against Boris Johnson’s highly taxed nanny state and net-stupid energy policies. #SendAMessage #ByElection2021

 

[yorksrob]

That said, Old Bexley and Sidcup isn't necessarily prime Thatcherite territory. Afterall, it did return Mr Heath for many years !

 

[edwin_m]

In the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election (still no date for it yet), Reform UK leader Richard Tice is standing as the candidate, trying to counter many of the current Government policies that are not considered traditional Conservative ones. Given the leader is standing, they'll be taking this very seriously, but I don't see them winning it. What might happen though is we get an idea of how much of the current Tory party support base is prepared to vote for Reform to voice opposition to the current Government's policies/behaviour. Of course if Reform garner enough votes to split it enough that someone else (most likely Labour going by the 2019 election result in this seat) wins it, that'll be very embarrassing for the Tories, but given the latter got nearly 65% last time, it's a tall order:

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1454402834703822852

Reform being the former Brexit party, it will be interesting to see whether the "traditional Conservatives" break to the right, or to the centre as in Chesham and Amersham.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Reform being the former Brexit party, it will be interesting to see whether the "traditional Conservatives" break to the right, or to the centre as in Chesham and Amersham.

Unlike Chesham and Amersham, Bexley borough (in which the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency is located) voted very strongly Leave in the referendum. With the LibDems still pushing their we-told-you-so-about-Brexit line, I don't think they'll attract many of those Leave voters.

 

[brad465]

Unlike Chesham and Amersham, Bexley borough (in which the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency is located) voted very strongly Leave in the referendum. With the LibDems still pushing their we-told-you-so-about-Brexit line, I don't think they'll attract many of those Leave voters.

The Lib Dems were well out of it in 2019 anyway in third place, whereas in Chesham and Amersham they were 2nd in 2019. Opinion polling on Brexit these days shows a distinct majority regretting the leave decision, but when you then ask about re-joining, it's still 50:50 more or less, which is one reason why no party, including the Lib Dems, is pushing rejoining right now.

Reform's biggest struggle will be not being fronted by Farage this time (unless of course he joins Tice on the campaign trail).

 

[yorksrob]

There's a video of the actual interview here. Talks about having enjoyed a swim while he was away and complaining no breakfast on the flight!

I thought he said a lot of sensible things in that interview. The breakfast comment was clearly a bit of banter for the journalists.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I thought he said a lot of sensible things in that interview. The breakfast comment was clearly a bit of banter for the journalists.

I should imagine that Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn would be at totally different ends of the "banter" scale....

 

[Typhoon]

In the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election (still no date for it yet), Reform UK leader Richard Tice is standing as the candidate, trying to counter many of the current Government policies that are not considered traditional Conservative ones. Given the leader is standing, they'll be taking this very seriously, but I don't see them winning it. What might happen though is we get an idea of how much of the current Tory party support base is prepared to vote for Reform to voice opposition to the current Government's policies/behaviour. Of course if Reform garner enough votes to split it enough that someone else (most likely Labour going by the 2019 election result in this seat) wins it, that'll be very embarrassing for the Tories, but given the latter got nearly 65% last time, it's a tall order:

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1454402834703822852

The Conservatives have chosen a local candidate, a councillor whose ward is part of Old Bexley and Sidcup, and former deputy leader of the council. He fought a neighbouring constituency last time and did OK. He's one of the more acceptable Tory councillors* in Bexley, and has already been endorsed by the Brokenshire family (claim on his twitter feed). I guess there is a rush to get the election in before Christmas. A cursory glance did not reveal any UKIP councillors in the recent past (all are currently Conservative); in 2015 UKIP finished 3rd but did alright and I wouldn't be surprised if that was repeated, there will be a sympathy vote and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a low turnout.

I absolutely agree with your analysis but Tice is taking a serious risk, if the leader finishes third what chance other candidates elsewhere? I would say Labour have little chance, London Borough of Bexley is divided north third Labour, south two-thirds Tory; in only one part of Old Bexley and Sidcup is Labour within sight of the Conservatives. Their candidate, also a councillor, cannot be tarred with the Momentum/ Corbyn brush but he shouldn't think about giving up his day job.

* - they could have selected Councillor Sawyer (aka Mr Priti Patel)

 

[edwin_m]

Unlike Chesham and Amersham, Bexley borough (in which the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency is located) voted very strongly Leave in the referendum. With the LibDems still pushing their we-told-you-so-about-Brexit line, I don't think they'll attract many of those Leave voters.

Thanks for the information about this constituency. In some ways it is even more worrying for Johnson if he loses votes here, showing that he is at risk from the right (despite spending most of his time pandering to them) as well as from the left.

 

[Acfb]

I can't really see how the Tories could lose this seat under any circumstances TBH as it's the sort of the seat which provides the Tories most reliable core vote nowadays even if it happened to be almost competitive in 1997.

I think there is some potential for the Reform party but they are unlikely to win it now (although they could have done pre Brexit referendum like in Rochester and Strood or Clacton).

I think whoever comes 2nd out of reform/Labour/LD will struggle to get more than 20% even if there is a huge drop in the Tory majority.

 

[brad465]

I can't really see how the Tories could lose this seat under any circumstances TBH as it's the sort of the seat which provides the Tories most reliable core vote nowadays even if it happened to be almost competitive in 1997.

I think there is some potential for the Reform party but they are unlikely to win it now (although they could have done pre Brexit referendum like in Rochester and Strood or Clacton).

I think whoever comes 2nd out of reform/Labour/LD will struggle to get more than 20% even if there is a huge drop in the Tory majority.

Yes I don't see the seat changing hands, but the result will give an indication of how much, if any, dissatisfaction there is with the current Tory party and their policies, given that while a noticeable drop/swing in their support might not change the result here, a comparable swing in another more marginal seat would likely see that seat change allegiance.

 

[Typhoon]

Yes I don't see the seat changing hands, but the result will give an indication of how much, if any, dissatisfaction there is with the current Tory party and their policies, given that while a noticeable drop/swing in their support might not change the result here, a comparable swing in another more marginal seat would likely see that seat change allegiance.

What might be telling is whether the Conservatives come second to the stay-at-homes, and, if so, by how much.

 

[nw1]

What gets me is how some of the supposedly liberal/centrist papers are giving coverage to Johnson.

I'm trying to avoid the media at the moment as my reaction to it ranges from mild depression to annoyance. Nonethelsss I inadvertently caught the front page of the 'i' over the weekend.

It appeared to feature an 'exclusive interview' with Johnson making him out to be some sort of climate guru. Yeah right. The same climate guru heading the government who appear to be pushing TOCs such as SWR to cut train services long term.

But the worst thing is that a paper which isn't supposed to be one of the right-wing populist papers (or right-wing pseudointellectual papers aka the Telegraph) giving him time and publicity.

If the centrists are praising Johnson, who is actually against him?

For all the faults of its system, America had a lot of media against Trump. It's frightening how little anti-Johnson and anti-Tory media there is in this country.

But how far is that simply because Labour has been such a lousy and ineffective opposition? Oh for a bit more like Rayner today.

Nonetheless one could argue the Tories and Johnson are so abysmally terrible that by rights, even weak and ineffective Labour should be ahead.

The answer of course is the post I made above, I suspect. The media. The constant praise Johnson seems to get. The climate guru. The man who invented the vaccine. Yeah, right.

The lack of attacks on hard Brexit and all the problems it's caused - all as a device to win votes in socially-conservative seats. Britain is in a very bad place IMO; the Tories have way too much power, too much media support and not enough people attacking them and calling them out for what they have done.

 

[Cowley]

I’ve started a new thread to discuss the general problems in our politics at the moment and to keep this one more specific to Boris Johnson and the Conservatives.
It can be found here:

How much of a general decline in parliamentary standards are we experiencing?

Mods note - Split from this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/when-will-it-all-go-wrong-for-the-tories-johnson.219414/ And yet the next poll will still report Conservatives 40 (+3) or similar...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Typhoon]

For all the faults of its system, America had a lot of media against Trump. It's frightening how little anti-Johnson and anti-Tory media there is in this country.

Absolutely: Seth Meyers, Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, John Oliver and probably a lot more (at least one 'Jimmy'). I know very few pro-Trump equivalents.

 

[brad465]

Absolutely: Seth Meyers, Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, John Oliver and probably a lot more (at least one 'Jimmy'). I know very few pro-Trump equivalents.

Virtually everyone working for Fox news will be pro-Trump. In this country the main opposition is the Guardian, the Mirror, and possibly also the Independent (if they're not anti-tory they're likely to be neutral-ish), although the Financial Times are anti-the current Tory Government, and endorsed no party in 2019; the FT also backed New Labour. In broadcast media Channel 4 does a good job not supporting the Tory party, although the privatisation proposals might change that.

 

[Busaholic]

What gets me is how some of the supposedly liberal/centrist papers are giving coverage to Johnson.

I'm trying to avoid the media at the moment as my reaction to it ranges from mild depression to annoyance. Nonethelsss I inadvertently caught the front page of the 'i' over the weekend.

It appeared to feature an 'exclusive interview' with Johnson making him out to be some sort of climate guru. Yeah right. The same climate guru heading the government who appear to be pushing TOCs such as SWR to cut train services long term.

But the worst thing is that a paper which isn't supposed to be one of the right-wing populist papers (or right-wing pseudointellectual papers aka the Telegraph) giving him time and publicity.

It's possible to look at the ''i'' and either forget, or not know in the first place, that it's owned by the ''Daily Mail''. You could say it's a rather cynical attempt to capture a liberal left of centre readership and persuade them that, when it comes to a General Election, better the cuddly Boris than the austere Sir Keir. The ''i'' can only continue because it reprints stuff from the F.T., the ''Spectator'' etc to give it the appearance of a complete newspaper still. Have to confess I still have a sub, which with the saving on an already low cover price (helped by not running to a Sunday edition) makes me too lazy to cancel it, though there are days when it just gets to line the parrot cage rather than being read.

 

[Cowley]

It's possible to look at the ''i'' and either forget, or not know in the first place, that it's owned by the ''Daily Mail''. You could say it's a rather cynical attempt to capture a liberal left of centre readership and persuade them that, when it comes to a General Election, better the cuddly Boris than the austere Sir Keir. The ''i'' can only continue because it reprints stuff from the F.T., the ''Spectator'' etc to give it the appearance of a complete newspaper still. Have to confess I still have a sub, which with the saving on an already low cover price (helped by not running to a Sunday edition) makes me too lazy to cancel it, though there are days when it just gets to line the parrot cage rather than being read.

‘Line the parrot cage’ is probably the best line I’ve read this evening…

 

[Strathclyder]

Absolutely: Seth Meyers, Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, John Oliver and probably a lot more (at least one 'Jimmy'). I know very few pro-Trump equivalents.

Jimmy Fallon & Jimmy Kimmel in addition to the names you listed, Samantha Bee is another one. Conan O'Brien too.

Seth Meyers, Stephen Colbert & John Oliver were/are my picks of the American Late Night comedy offerings all things considered for a number of reasons; Meyers' response to the January 6th Capitol attack/coup attempt was stoic & measured, but also unflinching & right to the point. Shook me to the core the first time I saw it. Honestly, it was far more impactful and meaningful to me than any tweet from any world leader condemning the attack was.

‘Line the parrot cage’ is probably the best line I’ve read this evening…

Never mind this evening, it's one of the best I've read all week.

 

[edwin_m]

It's possible to look at the ''i'' and either forget, or not know in the first place, that it's owned by the ''Daily Mail''. You could say it's a rather cynical attempt to capture a liberal left of centre readership and persuade them that, when it comes to a General Election, better the cuddly Boris than the austere Sir Keir. The ''i'' can only continue because it reprints stuff from the F.T., the ''Spectator'' etc to give it the appearance of a complete newspaper still. Have to confess I still have a sub, which with the saving on an already low cover price (helped by not running to a Sunday edition) makes me too lazy to cancel it, though there are days when it just gets to line the parrot cage rather than being read.

The "i" was originally a spinoff from the Independent and I think many people believe it shares the same fairly centrist view, but they came under separate ownership at some stage. The Independent itself, now online only, seems to have swung to the left.

 

[Typhoon]

Virtually everyone working for Fox news will be pro-Trump.

The difference is that the likes of Meyers/ Colbert/ Oliver/ at least one of the Jimmys* is that they are funny (well to me) - consistently/ regularly/ occasionally/ spasmodically take your pick, but funny none the less. The likes of Carlson, Hannity, Ingraham and Pirro are so bl@@dy serious. The former set may be exaggerating or talking nonsense but I am at least smiling at the humour; the Fox set, I see through their rubbish straight away as there is no humorous distractions, and they don't half worry about the unimportant. Actually that last statement may not quite be true, what is funny is they find certain peripheral and inconsequential things so pressing that they give peak hour TV time to it. I am laughing at them not with them!

*- I get confused between them as I don't watch either very much. When I do, I always feel it is the 'least funny' one!